Bobby Maxwell
Tonight, I have a FREE winner for you on the Rangers as they look for a third straight win over the Tigers.
Texas came in to this series with the Tigers having lost 15 straight games in Detroit, but now they’ve won two straight and shut out the Tigers 8-0 on Tuesday night. It’s quite simple, the Rangers are playing some of the best baseball of any team in the league right now, they believe in themselves and they have all the momentum. That’s why I can’t go against them tonight, play the Rangers behind Colby Lewis (9-5, 3.42 ERA).
Detroit has absolutely no momentum going, having lost seven straight games and having won nothing since the All-Star break, giving up six runs or more in five of the seven losses.
Lewis is 2-0 in his last three outings and he’s held the opposition to three runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings. In Boston on Friday he held the Red Sox to three runs in five innings of an 8-4 victory. Texas has won each of his last three road starts and he already owns a win over the Tigers this season, beating them on April 25 when he gave up four runs in 6.1 innings of an 8-4 win.
Max Scherzer (6-7, 4.74 ERA) takes the ball for the Tigers, coming off an ugly Friday start in Cleveland when he allowed four runs in five innings of an 8-2 loss. Back on April 23 he pitched against these Rangers and gave up four runs in seven innings, but fell 5-4. Detroit is 0-5 in Scherzer’s last five as an underdog and they are on slides of 3-8 against A.L. West teams, 0-7 against right-handers and 1-4 in the third game of a series.
Texas is riding surges of 16-5 on the road, 17-8 against right-handed starters, 7-3 when Lewis is an underdog, 11-2 when the team is a road underdog and 15-6 after a win.
No team is as hot as the Rangers. Let’s go with them to make it three in a row in Detroit.
4♦ TEXAS
BRETT ATKINS
I've gone 6-1 with my last 7 free plays and tonight's winner is on the Padres as they will get the job done against the Braves in Atlanta.
San Diego’s Jon Garland has struggled early in games recently, but he’s still put together a 9-6 mark with a 3.45 ERA. Tonight, he’ll get through those early innings and deliver a gem for the Padres, who dropped the series opener in Atlanta on Tuesday, 4-1.
Garland pitched very well on Friday, allowing just one run on three hits in six innings of a 12-1 win over Arizona.
Today for the Braves, it’s Tommy Hanson on the hill, who is just 4-4 at home with a 4.53 ERA. Friday, Hanson allowed four runs in five innings in a 9-3 loss to the Brewers and he’s lost two of his last three in front of the Braves’ fans, allowing 10 runs in 8.2 innings in those two losses.
So let's grab the plus-money and play the Padres in Atlanta tonight!
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Black Widow
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1* on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -126
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Rays are 30-17 on the road this season, scoring 5.9 runs/game and allowing 4.1 runs/game. James Shields is 6-2 with a 3.01 ERA in 16 career starts against Baltimore. Bradley Bergesen is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA in 2 career starts against Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the Money Line.
Tom Freese
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New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: New York Mets
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Mets starter Jonanthon Niese has allowed 5 runs total in his last 4 starts. New York is 14-5 their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Mets are 8-3 their last 11 games when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. Arizona starter Dan Haren 9 runs in his last 11.2 innings of work. The Diamonbacks are 13-32 their last 45 games off a win and they are 1-8 their last 9 games vs. lefty starters. Dan Haren has been on the losing side in his last 6 starts. Arizona is 0-8 their 8 games in game 3 of a series.
Frank Jordan
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New York Mets vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
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The D-Backs have taken the first two games of this series as they have limited the Mets to just two runs each game and as they go for the sweep have Dan Haren on the mound. Dan Haren has just 7 wins on the year, but 5 of them have come at home. The Mets are getting some decent pitching out of the break but are not getting any hitting which is leaving it up to the pitchers to go pitcher scoreless ball or they may not get a chance to get victories. In this one look for Haren and the Diamondbacks to complete the sweep behind a strong outing from Haren. Play Arizona
John Ryan
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LA Angels vs. New York Yankees
Play: LA Angels
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5* graded play on Anaheim as they take on the NY Yankees set to start at 1:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Anaheim will win this game. Although the Yankees are in a strog position for play-off position they are clearly showing that they do not have the dominant rotation to win the AL pennant. They are going to have to make a move to solidify and bring a form of insurance to this rotation, but it may come at a huge price. The Yankees are a good at winning baseball games, but they do not have the magic chemistry. Just look at the antics of Burnett recently and the lack of any dugout celebration when something good happens. Anaheim is certainly a ball team that really needs to get going and they match-up very well against AL East teams. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-16 making 31 units since 2004. Play against home teams revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs and with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. Vazquez is just 2-9 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 54% of their games when the game occurs in the second half of the season spanning the last 3 seasons. Anaheim is a solid 43-16 (+28.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Their starter Pineiro is a near perfect 12-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons. Last, but not least, the fact that the Yankees have had 5 straight OVERS reflects more of the inconsistent starting and bullpen pitching. Yankees are 1-8 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. Take Anaheim.
Rocketman
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Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Houston Astros
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Houston is 11-3 when playing on Wednesday this year. Despite a losing overall record Houston has a winning record against division opponents at 21-17 this year. Chicago Cubs are 16-26 overall vs Division opponents this year. Chicago Cubs are 15-27 after a win this year. Chicago Cubs are 19-31 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Brett Myers has a 3.35 ERA overall this year and is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA his last 3 starts. Ted Lilly is 3-8 overall this year and 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA his last 3 starts. Myers is 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA overall vs Chicago Cubs since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston today!
Steve Merril
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Rays @ Orioles
PICK: Over 9.5
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The Rays and Orioles played late into Tuesday night and now they have a quick turnaround on Wednesday afternoon. Baltimore exhausted their bullpen last night and will hope that Brad Bergesen can go deep in this game. The righty is 3-7 with a 6.54 ERA in 14 starts this season. At home, he's 2-3 with a 6.34 ERA. One of those starts in Camden Yards came against the Rays back in April. In that game, Bergesen gave up eight runs and seven hits in three innings of work. His other career start against the Rays came in May of 2009 when he gave up four runs and nine hits in 5.7 innings of work. B.J. Upton (3-5), Carlos Pena (3-4), Jason Bartlett (2-3), Willy Aybar (1-2), and Reid Brignac (1-2) hit Bergesen well. Tampa Bay has gone Over the total in five of their last six games, and they’ve also gone Over the total in 23 of their 37 games in the A.L. East while averaging almost six runs per game.
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James Shields makes the start for Tampa Bay. He's 6-9 with a 4.90 ERA with 12 of his 19 starts going Over the total. In his last three starts, Shields has given up 11 runs and 18 hits in 18.3 innings pitched. The righty gave up three runs and nine hits in six innings pitched to the Orioles in early April this season. Nick Markakis (14-46), Luke Scott (7-24), Miguel Tejada (7-23), Adam Jones (9-19), and Ty Wigginton (2-3) all hit Shields well. The Orioles are hitting over .260 in their last eight games, and we expect another high-scoring game between these two teams this afternoon.
JR O'Donnell
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KAN / TOR Over 8.5
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KC Royals and the Toronto Jays fly to the Over early today as Wednesday's fire works come early to Jr's camp! The Royals pound the rock and are batting a terrific .281 to lead the bigs. Greinke has a sore shoulder and the Jays will pop a few off him. The Toronto Jays roll out Marc Rzepczynski who is 0-0 over all and a rough 5.43 ERA. The line is about where we thought it would be and the pure fact that Kc pounds the ball and Grienke is banged up we make us "FIRE" 2 fisted on the OVER 8.5..
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -143
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The Cards have won 7 in a row, and I like them to make it 8 straight tonight with a win over Blanton and the Phillies. The Phillies have lost 5 of 6 and Blanton doesn't offer them much confidence tonight when you consider that he is just 1-3 with an ERA of 7.06 on the road this season. In fact, the Phillies are 1-5 in Blanton's last 6 road starts. Garcia has been outstanding for the Red Birds this season, especially at home where he is 3-1 with an ERA of only 1.49. The Phillies are just 1-9 in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. I'll fade them in this price range tonight.
Steve Janus
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1* - Rangers/Tigers Over 8.5
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I am taking the OVER in the Rangers and Tigers game tonight. The Rangers shut out the Tigers 8-0 last night, but thats good news for the OVER today, as the Tigers are 16-5 OVER after getting shut out over the last 3 seasons. On top of that the Tigers are 23-13 OVER after 2 or more consecutive home games this season. The Rangers bring plenty of fire power to the plate, as they have scored at least seven runs in four of their last six games, including eight runs in each of their first two games against the Tigers.
Rob Vinciletti
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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
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What we want to do in this game is play against road dogs off a road favored win by 2 or more runs, if they scored 4 or less runs and had 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 5 or more men left on base. These road teams have lost 13 of 16 times. If the posted total is 8 or less they have lost every time. The Whitesox will have a tough time here tonight against F. Hernandez. In fact Hernandez has a 2.56 home era and has held Chicago scoreless over his last 15 innings against them. Chicago starter G. Floyd has a 1-4 record with an era over 8 vs Seattle. In his road starts this season Chicago is 3-6 and he has a 4.12 era. Look for Seattle to get the win tonight. Jump on the Big NL Game of the Month. Both games go at night as we remain 30 games over .500 in bases without heavy favorites. For the free play take Seattle.
Wunderdog
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Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8½
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Randy Wolf has pitched much better of late, as he has a 3.24 ERA over his last six starts. He has a pedigree against the Pirates as well. Wolf owns an 8-2 career mark vs the Pirates with a 3.47 ERA. He has also pitched well on the road, as in his last four starts he owns a 1.88 ERA. Also, the Brewers are now 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates have only managed one over in their last nine vs a lefthand starter and just three of their last 16 vs the division have gone over. Duje has worked five times vs the Brewers at home and four of those went UNDER. I'll play the UNDER in this one.
Sac Lawson
BOS (-120) vs OAK
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Bucholz takes the mound for Boston in his first game back off the DL, and the Red Sox certainly need a good outing. They've had a very very tough go of things since the All-Star Break, and this series against Oakland has been a couple of extremely tight games. Obviously the bullpen edge is with Oakland, especially at their home ballpark, so we've gotta have faith in Bucholz in order to pull the trigger on Boston. Quite frankly, I've got that faith.
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Bucholz has been a monster 5-1 on the road this season, and one disadvantage Oakland has is that they simply aren't very familiar with his stuff. He hasn't faced the A's at all this year, and has only seen limited work against them in the past as well.
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On the other side, Gio is always tough at home, but his history against Boston is mediocre. And with the way the 2nd half has gone for Boston, I expect them to be patient at the plate, and really push hard at this series win. The A's are playing an early game today, and then have a day off tomorrow... I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a lethargic game from them, with the expectation that they'll mentally take this game as the start of their weekend.
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I trust Bucholz on the road, and understand the importance of getting a win here to turn this 2nd half around QUICKLY for Boston. Expect them to grab it! Boston 1 unit!
CIN (+115) vs WAS
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Little do most people know that Bronson Arroyo is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now. He's given up just three runs in his last 21 innings, and has been absolutely lethal against right handed bats. Then again, this is nothing knew for Bronson. Throughout his career he's always been a pitcher that improves as the season goes along and as the temperature rises. This year is no exception. When it comes to facing Washington, his ERA is high (around 5), but he's got a solid 2-1 record over his last 5 starts. Obviously I expect him to do far better than pitch to an ERA of around 5, especially against a team that is 15-33 on the road!
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Obviously I'd expect to see plenty of action on Strasburg today, not just because of his big time name recognition, but because (as mentioned) I think Arroyo is being undervalued based on his current state. I've said this before and I'll say it again, Strasburg is tough to back simply because the Nats don't allow him to pitch deep into games. He'll go 6 innings, tops, and with the way Washington has found ways to lose games on the road all season long, it's simply a safe bet to count on them to continue that trend in the late innings, regardless of how Strasburg sets the tone.
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Can't pass up taking a team that is in legitimate contention and getting an underdog price at home against a team that is 15-33 on the road. Too good! Reds 1 unit!
NYM (+110) vs ARI
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It certainly looked like Arizona's bullpen tried to give one away last night... And that's definitely an issue you have to think about when betting on or against the Snakes. Obviously we've got that advantage again tonight when betting on the Mets, but we've also got the advantage of facing a guy in Haren that has watched his team lose 8 of his last 10 starts, including 6 in a row! Haren is the team's ace at this point, and as a team, they simply can't win for him.
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On the other side, Niese has been very solid giving up just 5 runs in his last 4 starts. He's been good both on the road and at home, and most importantly, when he gives up big hits, it's usually without runners on base. Once concern is, indeed, the fact that Niese does give up home runs, and this Arizona team can definitely hit em out... BUT, his WHIP is low enough to avoid the big innings, and it's often times the mental lapses that key the opponents' solo shots.
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Simply cannot ignore the fact that Haren is getting no support from his team in terms of wins, and on top of it, his bullpen is terrible. The Mets have lost 5 of their first 6 games on this road trip to start the 2nd half... They absolutely MUST win this one. 1 unit on the mets!
Murray Hill Mike
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Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
Play: Texas Rangers
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We have found a SUPER SYSTEM that supports a play on Texas. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after a loss by 8 runs or more. This system has cashed 65% (88-48) of the time over the last five seasons. Consider the pitching trends. Lewis has a 7-1 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5. Scherzer has a 7-19 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125 and 17-27 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10. Consider the team trends. Texas is 9-3 SU after 6 or more consecutive road games, 12-6 SU after 3 or more consecutive wins, 10-4 SU when playing on Wednesday and 13-4 SU with a tired bullpen throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. Detroit is 6-16 SU after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs, 1-6 SU revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 8 or more runs, 2-7 SU after a loss by 6 runs or more and 4-9 SU after allowing 8 runs or more. Take Texas