VEGAS EXPERTS
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Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
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Seattle hosts the Chicago White Sox tonight in the last game of their series at 10:10 PM ET. The Sportsbooks have this total at 6.5 runs, which is low but not low enough for tonight’s matchup. Here at Vegas Experts, we predict this total ending right at 5 runs. On the mound for Seattle, Hernandez has been pitching excellent. He has a 2.25 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in his last three starts and throughout the season he tends to play excellent at home with a 2.86 ERA and 1.134 WHIP. On the other side of the matchup, Floyd had a good five game winning streak then lost his last matchup to Minnesota. In his last three starts, Floyd has a 1.37 ERA and 1.220 WHIP. Don’t let this low total number scare you away. Play on the Under!
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Play on: The Under
Karl Garrett
Winner on Tuesday with the Cardinals on the RUN LINE from the G-Man.
For Wednesday night, stick with the Arizona Diamonbacks to sweep the New York Mets out of Phoenix.
The Mets are in a free-fall right now, losers of their last pair, and 8 of their last 10, as their offense is just not coming through right now.
Dan Haren may be showcasing his wares for a trade in the not too distant future, so expect Haren to step up his game a notch and showcase his talent tonight against the silent Mets offense.
Arizona has won 7 of the last 9 meetings against New York dating back last season, and they are on an overall 10-5 series run the last 15 meetings.
With New York pitching not getting much support these days, look for Jon Niese to suffer his third straight losing decision.
G-Man on the Snakes!
2♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
I honestly thought about giving you the Over in this game, but when I looked deeper at the matchup, it’s clear the play is on the Brewers and Randy Wolf, who is 8-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 16 starts against the Pirates.
The southpaw is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in his last four road starts, and comes in after giving up three runs in six innings of a 9-3 win. Thus, momentum shouldn’t be an issue.
On the flipside, I’m going against Zach Duke, who is 3-9 with a 5.38 ERA this season.
Duke produced a sky-high 14.00 ERA in two losses to the Brewers back in April, and checks in with a 3-7 mark and 6.33 ERA in 15 outings against them.
Plus, the Pirates’ southpaw has posted a 7.33 ERA in losing his last five starts overall.
Lay the road chalk in this one, as the Brewers get it done.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Dave Cokin
Member Plays
Matchup: L.A. Angels at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PINEIRO, J vs. (R) VAZQUEZ, J
Play: L.A. Angels (ML +170)
It's never easy to go against the Yankees when they're playing in the Bronx. But when there's this much value in the number, it's absolutely worthwhile. Joel Pineiro is on a big roll for the Halos. He's won seven in a row, and the team has won each of his last eight starts. And Pineiro hasn't been lucky, he's been rock solid, with quality starts in all of those wins. Javier Vazquez is also going well for the Yanks, but he's been shaky in his daytime starts and he's never been able to record even one win against this opponent. Bobby Abreu could be the key here, as he's crushed Vazquez, and I also think the return to active duty of underrated Maicer Izturis is a big plus for the visitors. The Angels aren't going to just pack it in as far as their divisional title hopes are concerned, and I like their outburst on Tuesday to provide some positive momentum today. I'll go for the substantial dog odds and give the Angels a play.
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Matchup: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) WOLF, R vs. (L) DUKE, Z
Play: Milwaukee (ML -125) SOLID GOLD
The Brewers ended up losing at Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, but they sure made it exciting after falling down 9-0. Look for the road team to get back on the winning track tonight. Randy Wolf has put together four straight quality starts on the road and he's owned the Pirates throughout his career. The Bucs counter with Zach Duke, who's having a brutal year and is getting clocked for a whopping .329 opposing batting average. Granted, the Pirates have been close to a .500 team against lefties but I thought they were lucky to hang on last night. Given the complete series domination by the Brewers, I'm compelled to play that side this evening.
Hollywood Sports
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New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: New York Mets
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New York has now lost the first two games of this series after falling to Arizona 3-2 last night. The Mets' send out Jonathon Niese who is 6-4 with a 3.22 ERA this season. Niese has been a good slump-stopper for New York this season as the Mets have won four of their last five games with Niese on the mound coming off a loss. The Mets have also won five straight games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range with Niese making the start. Over his last three starts, Niese is heating up with a 2.08 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He should fare well against an Arizona lineup that has lost eight of their last nine games when facing a left-handed starter. The Diamondbacks send out their faltering veteran right-hander, Dan Haren, who is struggling with a 7-8 record and 4.60 ERA. This is not a good spot for Haren as Arizona has lost eight straight Game 3 situations with Haren on the hill.
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A deeper sabermetric statistic helps to illustrate why Hernandez is the better proposition between these two starting pitchers tonight. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Hernandez has a low ISO of .133 while Haren has a high .181 ISO. This metric exposes the fact that hitters are nailing Haren for many more extra-base hits than they are against Niese. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the money line with the Mets while listing both pitchers.
TEDDY COVERS
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Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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Just like yesterday, the early money has poured in on the Phillies, resulting in a cheap price to support the better, hotter team with the superior starting pitcher and the stronger bullpen. Philadelphia has lost five of six since the All Star break, but they’ve been a sub .500 squad for more than two months now. On May 17th, the Phillies were sitting eleven games Over .500 at 24-13. Since that time, they are 24-32, playing .444 baseball for more than two months. Reputation and reality are not meshing with the Phillies these days.
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Philadelphia starter Joe Blanton is 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA in seven previous road starts this season. Blanton was on the wrong end of a 6-3 loss the last time he matched up against Jamie Garcia, back in May. The bullpen behind Blanton is spent, after Jamie Moyer’s one inning performance last night.
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That stands in sharp contrast with St Louis, a red hot squad, winners of six straight since the All Star break. The Phillies lineup is hitting just .169 against lefties like Jamie Garcia in their last ten ballgames, struggling repeatedly against quality southpaws. Garcia has a 1.49 ERA in eight previous home starts this season. His attitude following a poor start against the Dodgers in his last outing is exactly what we look for. Garcia: “You just try to flush that one and get ready for the next one. And make sure it doesn't happen again.” The St Louis bullpen behind him is fresh following Chris Carpenter’s domination last night, lowering the probability for late inning shenanigans tonight. 2* Take St Louis.
BEN BURNS
Red Sox @ Athletics
PICK: Under 7.5
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After a low-scoring (2-1) opener, yesterday's game produced nine runs. I expect a well-pitched affair this afternoon.
Gio Gonzalez outpitched Greinke in his last start, allowing just one run through seven complete innings. He's been much better at home than he has been on the road and he's also been much better during the afternoon, than he has been in the evening. At home, he's got a stellar 2.98 ERA and 1.169 WHIP.
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Meanwhile, in five afternoon starts, Gonzalez has gone 4-0 with a microscopic 1.30 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .165 in those games.
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Bucholz is making his first start in several weeks and therefore is unlikely to go a full game. He should be solid while he's in the game though. For the season, he's 10-4 with an impressive 2.45 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He's been particularly sharp on the road. In fact, he's 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in seven road starts. The UNDER is 3-0 the last three times that he has taken the mound.
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As a team, the A's have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 20-8-3, when they've played during the afternoon. Given Gonzalez's daytime stats, don't be surprised if those numbers improve here. Consider the Under
Dave Price
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -138
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The Cards have won 7 straight while the Phillies have dropped 5 of 6. With this in mind, we're actually getting a pretty good price with St. Louis, especially when you consider that Blanton is carrying an ERA of 7.06 on the road this season. Compare that to Garcia's 1.49 home ERA. Take the Red Birds here.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on New York Mets +117
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Look for the Mets to avoid the sweep tonight. The D-backs have lost Haren's last 6 starts. They are also 0-8 in his last 8 starts during game 3 of a series and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. I also like the fact that the Mets are 5-0 in Niese's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Mets showing solid value in this bounce back spot.
Dan Bebe
FLA (-109) vs COL
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This is what you'd put into the "player matchup" category of plays.
Ricky Nolasco is a perfect 4-0 against the Rockies with an ERA of just 2.27 in his career. Of the current Rox, only Brad Hawpe has been able to collect more than a single RBI against Nolasco, and Ian Stewart and Ryan Spilborghs are a combined 0-for-10 prior to this year. Nolasco went 8 innings in Colorado in April, allowing just a single run while striking out 9, so his success against them has rolled over into 2010. Nolasco has been a bit inconsistent this season, but pitching is largely about confidence, and he loves facing Colorado.
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Jason Hammel is at the other end of the spectrum. He's confident against the League right now, but his lifetime mark against the Marlins is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.71. Hanley Ramirez has owned Hammel, Jorge Cantu has hit him hard, and the Marlins are a young team that relies pretty heavily on emotion. I like that they've hit Hammel hard in the past, and I think that helps them, tonight.
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Make no mistake, Hammel has actually been the better pitcher this year, and the Rockies have been the better team, but Nolasco is going to go to town on one of his favorite teams to face, and the Marlins are going to win a relatively low scoring affair.
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Play on Florida, and let's get this historical-data-based Free winner!