SPORTS ADVISORS
St. Louis (51-45) at Houston (48-46)
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A pair of aces take the mound at Minute Maid Park, with the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.26 ERA) matching up against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.65), who will try to guide the red-hot Astros to a three-game sweep of this series between division rivals.
Houston followed up Monday’s 3-2 victory with last night’s 11-6 rout of the Redbirds for its eighth win in the last 11 games. The Astros have surged into second place – two games behind St. Louis – by playing their best baseball of the season over the past month, winning 16 of their last 24 overall, including 10 of 13 at home. Cecil Cooper’s squad is on additional upticks of 6-2 against right-handed starters, 6-1 in N.L. Central contests, 5-2 as a home underdog and 11-3 in the third game of a series.
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St. Louis continues to lead the division despite playing sub-.500 baseball over the last four weeks (11-13 overall, 6-8 on the road). On the bright side, the Redbirds are on surges of 9-4 in on Wednesday, 7-2 versus teams with a winning record, 9-2 as a favorite and 5-1 as a road chalk.
The home team has won eight straight meetings in this rivalry, including all five this season. During this eight-game stretch of success for the home squad, St. Louis has dropped five straight at Minute Maid Park.
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Carpenter is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts, including Saturday’s 6-1 home win over the Diamondbacks in which the veteran right-hander scattered seven hits over eight scoreless innings. Carpenter has given up three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts this season, including yielding one or no runs eight times. He’s 4-2 with a 2.50 ERA in nine road starts, the last eight being quality outings.
With Carpenter on the hill, St. Louis is on runs of 82-34 overall, 40-16 against divisional foes, 27-13 as a road favorite, 12-5 on Wednesday, 16-5 in the third game of a series, 9-3 when he faces the Astros and 6-2 when he pitches in Houston. For his career, Carpenter is 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 11 starts versus the Astros, though he last faced them in September 2006.
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Oswalt has been dominating over the past month, going 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his last five starts, including Saturday’s complete-game 8-1 rout of the Dodgers. In that contest, the right-hander gave up four hits and no walks while striking out five as he went the distance for the second time in his last four outings. Oswalt has pitched at least six innings in 13 straight games and 18 of his 20 starts this year. However, he’s just 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA in nine homes efforts in 2009.
Behind their ace, the Astros are on surges of 4-0 overall, 59-23 at home and 30-11 on Wednesday, but they have lost four straight games with Oswalt taking on a divisional opponent. They’re also 0-4 in his last four against St. Louis, against whom the 31-year-old is 9-7 with a 3.11 ERA in 26 career appearances (25 starts). That includes an 11-2 loss in St. Louis back on April 11, with Oswalt given up six runs in six innings.
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The “over” is 15-7-1 in Carpenter’s last 23 road starts, 8-3 in his last 11 on Wednesday, 5-2 in his last seven starts against the Astros and 6-2 in his last eight outings at Minute Maid Park. With Oswalt pitching, the “under” is on runs of 25-9 on Wednesday, 12-5-1 against the N.L. Central and 4-1 versus St. Louis.
The Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-3 on the road, 6-3 against the N.L. Central, 8-3-1 on Wednesday and 5-0 against right-handed starters. Similarly, Houston carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 11-5-2 at home, 5-0 on Wednesday and 43-20-3 in divisional contests. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six clashes in this rivalry and 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Houston.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston (55-38) at Texas (51-41)
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The suddenly surging Rangers go for a rare three-game sweep of the struggling Red Sox as Vicente Padilla (7-5, 4.67) takes the mound for the home team opposite Clay Buchholz (1-0, 1.59) at Rangers Ballpark.
Texas got an outstanding start from rookie Tommy Hunter and beat the Red Sox and ace Josh Beckett 4-2 on Tuesday, the team’s third straight win overall and third straight victory over Boston. The Rangers are still just 4-5 in their last nine outings, but otherwise they’re on positive runs of 8-2 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. East and 5-0 on Wednesday.
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Boston had won five of six going into the All-Star break and then returned to action with a victory at Toronto on Friday, but it has now dropped four in a row for the first time all season. Tonight, Terry Francona’s club will look to avoid getting swept in a series for the first time in 2009. Despite the recent rut, the Sox are still on runs of 13-8 on the road, 23-9 on Wednesday and 4-1 in the third game of a series.
Texas entered this year in a 3-15 slump against the Red Sox (1-6 at home), but it is 4-1 against the Red Sox this season.
Buchholz is taking the place of regularly scheduled starter Tim Wakefield tonight. In his first big-league start of the season on Friday, the young right-hander guided Boston to a 4-1 win over Toronto, scattering a run on four hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings. Last year, Boston went 3-12 in games Buchholz started, including 0-4 in his last four.
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Despite the win in Toronto, Buchholz is just 2-8 with a 7.09 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) on the road in his career. However, in his lone start against the Rangers, he pitched six scoreless innings, allowing five hits and two walks in an 8-3 home win last April.
Padilla got knocked around in his first post-All-Star-break start Saturday, giving up all five runs in seven innings of a 5-3 home loss to the Twins. It was the second straight time that Padilla gave up five runs in a home start, and he’s now 3-4 with a hefty 6.00 ERA on his own turf.
Padilla beat the Red Sox 6-3 at Fenway Park on June 7, allowing three runs (two earned) in seven innings, making the right-hander 2-3 with a 4.84 ERA in seven lifetime games (six starts) against Boston. Behind Padilla, Texas is on runs of 21-7 when he gets four days of rest and 6-0 on Wednesday.
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The Rangers have stayed under the total in Padilla’s last seven starts overall and his last six starts at home. Additionally, Texas is on incredible “under” stretches of 41-15-1 overall, 23-5-1 at home, 10-1 against the A.L. East, 5-1 on Wednesday and 28-11-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, Boston also is on several lengthy “under” streaks, including 38-17-4 overall, 9-2 on the road (5-0 last five), 12-2-1 against the A.L. West (5-0 last five), 10-4-1 against clubs with a winning record and 23-10-4 versus right-handed starters.
Lastly, the past six Texas-Boston clashes – including all five this year – have stayed under the total.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
DUNKEL
Cleveland at Toronto
The Blue Jays look to bounce back from yesterday's 2-1 loss and build on their 6-1 record in Ricky Romero's last 7 starts following a loss in the previous game. Toronto is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140).
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Game 901-902: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 14.202; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.617; Philadelphia (Moyer) 17.174
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
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Game 905-906: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 15.435; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.907
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-175); Over
Game 907-908: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.764; Washington (Stammen) 14.021
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under
Game 909-910: San Francisco at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.862; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.767
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Under
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Game 911-912: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.050; Houston (Oswalt) 16.185
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under
Game 913-914: Florida at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.137; San Diego (Geer) 14.070
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-140); Over
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Game 915-916: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.372; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.201
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+180); Under
Game 917-918: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 15.408; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.986
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-260); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-260); Under
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Game 919-920: Minnesota at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 16.048; Oakland (Cahill) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 14.551; Toronto (Romero) 15.394
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over
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Game 923-924: Seattle at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.535; Detroit (Galarraga) 15.381
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Over
Game 925-926: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.926; Texas (Padilla) 14.883
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.764; White Sox (Torres) 14.401
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Under
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Game 929-930: LA Angels at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 15.079; Kansas City (Bannister) 15.647
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over
WNBA
Atlanta at Detroit
The Dream look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Atlanta is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5).
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Game 651-652: Atlanta at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.478; Detroit 109.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: New York at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: New York 106.366; Chicago 110.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 139
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
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Game 655-656: Sacramento at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 105.536; Connecticut 115.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 10; 147 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 8 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-8 1/2); Over
Game 657-658: Minnesota at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.144; Phoenix 116.194
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 172
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 179
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4); Under
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Game 659-660: Los Angeles at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 109.797; Seattle 110.487
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 1; 130
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Frank Jordan
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Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Minnesota Twins
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After the offensive explosion that ended in a questionable call at the plate, Minnesota bounced back with a 3-2 win in 10 innings. In the rubber match the Twins are sending 5-5 Glen Perkins who is 3-1 in his last 4 starts and 3-2 in 6 road starts this year. Oakland will send Trevor Cahill to make his 20th start and he is 5-8 on the year and 4-5 at home on the year. Look for a stellar outing from Perkins as Minnesota bounces back from the tough win Monday and win the series by more than one run as the first two games have had a one run margin. Play Minnesota
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Seattle Mariners
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In a slugfest last night Detroit won 9-7 as 7 homeruns were hit. This is the middle game of the series the Mariners have their man on the mound they want as 10-3 Felix Hernandez with a 2.51 era looks to get Seattle its 50th win of the year. Felix is 6-0 is his last 10 starts and 1-0 against Seattle this year. Detroit is sending 5-8 Armando Galarraga is 2-5 in his last 10 starts and is under .500 at 3-4 at home. Look for Seattle to even up the series behind their ace as the King tames the Tigers. Play Seattle
BIG AL
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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For those who thought that veteran righthander Roy Oswalt, who has spent all of his nine Major League seasons with the Astros, was washed up in the first half of this season, then think again. Over the past month, Oswalt has been one of the most consistent starters in the National League, if not the entire Majors and he shows no sign of letting up quite yet. Just how good has Oswalt been? In his last five starts, Oswalt is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and in four of those five starts, he has only surrendered one earned run, and he's only given up a total of six walks in the five starts covering a total of 38 innings. The only start of the five that wasn't stellar was two starts ago when Oswalt left after six innings against the Nats complaining of numbness in his throwing hand, but he came right back in his next (and latest) start to throw a masterful complete game four-hitter against the Dodgers (his second complete game in those five starts). This is not an easy assignment tonight against division rival St. Louis and another very good veteran in Chris Carpenter who, like Oswalt, is having a stellar season. But unlike the Houston ace, Carpenter has been very up-and-down lately, and while two of his last four starts have been like Oswalt's recent outings, the other two have been very sub-par. The Cards will no doubt monitor Carpenter very closely with has recent history of arm problems and will not hesitate to pull him if something is not right. This series has not been friendly to the visitors lately as the home team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings heading into tonight. Take the 'Stros.
Cajun Sports
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners will look to even the series on Wednesday night at Comerica Park in Detroit, they lost to the host Tigers on Tuesday night by a score of 9 to 7. Seattle will send ace right-hander Felix Hernandez to the bump with his 10-3 W/L record and ERA of 2.51 which includes a record of 6-1 W/L when he starts away from home and he has an ERA of 1.97 in those games. Hernandez last outing he pitched 8 innings allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 8 strikeouts in a win at Cleveland by the final score of 6 to 2. Two previous starts one against Texas he allowed 1 earned run in a 3 to 1 win and prior to that win he defeated the Red Sox at Fenway giving up 3 earned runs in a 7 to 6 victory. He has been consistent and we know that Seattle is 7-0 W/L (+7.7) when Hernandez takes the mound in road games after giving up two or fewer earned runs in his last 2 outings the last 2 seasons. Hernandez is also 14-5 W/L (+11.6) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers will counter with Armando Galarraga who is 5-8 W/L on the season with an ERA of 5.09. Galarraga has shown little improvement when starting at home where he is 3-4 W/L with an ERA of 4.97. In his last outing he faced Cleveland and pitched for 6 innings allowing 4 earned runs on 9 hits in a 5 to 4 home loss. Galarraga is 2-10 W/L (-9.7) when playing under the lights this season. Detroit is 26-56 W/L (-25.4) as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last 2 seasons. Significant pitching advantage for Seattle in tonight’s matchup and we also have strong technical support for the visitors as well so lay the chalk with the Mariners as they even this series with the Tigers at Comerica on Wednesday night.
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Graded Selection: 2* Seattle Mariners 2 Detroit Tigers 1
Red Dog Sports
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Chicago at Philadelphia
Play: Under 9.5
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The Cubs have 22 unders and 9 overs in their last 31 on the road. Carlos Zambrano has an ERA of 2.65 in his last 3 starts while Jamie Moyer's ERA is 3.44 in his last 3 with 0 overs and 3 unders. Look for an under on Wednesday afternoon.
Marc Lawrence
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Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
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The Tribe takes on the Bluejays in Game Two of this three game series when Carl Pavano matches serves with Ricky Romero in Toronto this evening. Pavano enters tonight's contest off back-to-back team start wins knowing he's cashed his last 4 starts in a row in July. On the flip side, Romero checks in off back-to-back team start losses as he appears to be hitting the rookie-wall. Look for the Indians to improve to 14-6 in this series, including 6-1 the last seven games in the ballpark.
Jimmy The Moose
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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Prediction: under
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Boston has played under the total in their last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. In their last 59 games overall the under is 38-17-4. Buchholz's only start of the season played under the total. The under is 41-15-1 in the Rangers last 57 games. The under is 17-4-1 in their last 22 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games as a home dog. Padilla's last 7 starts have played under the total. The under is 11-5 in his 16 starts this season. Play the under.
John Fisher
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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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YES...O's stink in day games.....YES O's stink against Burnett...but lets take the O's to salvage a sweep against the Yankees. Burnetts control looks like it has dwindled last few games with high walk counts. Look for O's to win a scoring contest.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Under
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This game looks like a 3-2 contest. Both pitchers should over power each others lineup. Pitch count will be key as bullpens can easily give up a few runs.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Seattle Mariners
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I have this gae at -155....so I will take this contest. Felix has ben lights out. Look for Felix to cool down Tigers bats.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Over
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ERA is 12 last three games between these two pitchers. Look for 10 runs after 7 innings in this contest.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Pavano looked extremely sharp last outing. Mixed inhi change up well wit fast ball and kept batters unbalanced. Jays aggressive approach will help Pavano. Both these pitchers are similar. Take the Dog-system play
Bob Harvey
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels send Joe Saunders to the hill as they look to lengthen their lead in the AL West. Last season Saunders was an all-star but this year he’s struggled posting an 8-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. Saunders has faced the Royals once this season and shut them out 1-0 back on May 9th. Saunders will be opposed by lefthander Brian Bannister who enters with a 6-7 record but a solid ERA of 3.66. Bannister will need to bring his A game against an Angels team that is 18-8 vs. lefties this season.
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The key for the Angels hostile takeover in the Western Division has been their offense. The Angels are the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.4 runs per game and lead the league in hits with just under 10 knocks per game. The Angels are 7-3 in their last ten games and during this stretch they’re averaging over six runs per game. Toss out Sunday’s 1-0 win over Oakland and you’re looking at a per-game average of seven runs per contest. The Angels have put together this streak, for the most part, without Tori Hunter and Vlad Guerrero who are both on the disabled list. The Halo’s have also had to make due without Juan Rivera the past several games because of a hamstring injury.
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On the flip side, the Royals are the lowest scoring team in the league at 3.9 rpg and that could explain in part their eight game losing streak and 3-13 record in their last 16 home games.
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Even without the big guns like Hunter, Guerrero and Rivera, Mike Scoscia continues to plug the holes. Eric Aybar is coming off a 7-9 performance in Tuesday’s doubleheader raising his batting average to .490 in the month of July. Macier Iztirus has stepped up as well while the Angel bullp
Rob Vinciletti
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Seattle Mariners
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Seattle has their ace going tonight.Felix "the cat" Hernandez.The Mariners are 9-2 in his road team starts this year and he has an awesome 1.97 road era.Over his last 3 starts he has compiled a nifty 2.35 era.The Mariners are 13-6 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and have won 9 of 11 times as a road favorite from -100 to -125.Detroit counters with Galaragga tonight and his numbers even at home are no where close to F.Hernandez.Galaragga has a 4.97 home era this year.FH has a career 4-2 record vs the Tigers with a solid 3.22 era.Those looking for 2 big bangers I have a non-divisional game of the month from a big 18-2 system that wins by 3 runs per game,plus a stat dominator side play.Take the Mariners here tonight.
DAVE COKIN
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS / KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take LOS ANGELES ANGELS
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I had the Angels in both games Tuesday, so I'll come right back with them here. Joe Saunders has been lousy lately, and at this point Brian Bannister is probably the better pitching option. But the bottom line is that the Halos have four straight wins, the Royals have eight straight losses, and with the Tuesday DH sweep tucked away, playing the Angels right back is the right move.
JIM FEIST
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CINCINNATI REDS / LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Take UNDER
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Dodger stadium is a huge park, pitcher-friendly, and two good arms take the hill. Cincy righty Bronson Arroyo (10-8) has been hot, with a 2.14 ERA his last three starts, walking only 4 in 21 innings. A problem for the Reds is that their offense is weak, ranked 26th in baseball in runs scored. Dodgers Chad Billingsley has fanned 119 in 127 innings and loves facing the Reds, with a 0.92 ERA in 21 innings against them. Look for an old fashioned pitcher's duel at Dodger stadium, play the Reds/Dodgers Under the total.
Dominic Fazzini
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Milwaukee +105 at PITTSBURGH
The Brewers are looking for their eighth straight series win against the Pirates in today’s game.
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With Jeff Suppan (5-7, 4.43 ERA) taking the mound for Milwaukee, I’m positive the Brew Crew is going to get it.
Suppan is 13-3 with a 4.22 ERA in 22 career starts against Pittsburgh, and has gone 6-0 in eight starts vs. the Bucs since joining Milwaukee before the 2007 season.
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The veteran right-hander lost his last start, at Cincinnati on July 17, despite not allowing an earned run in six innings. Two Milwaukee errors, however, allowed the Reds to score three unearned runs off Suppan in Cincinnati’s 4-0 victory.
Pirates left-hander Paul Maholm (6-4, 4.28) was sharp in his last outing, allowing just one unearned run in eight innings Friday against San Francisco. He hasn’t fared well in his last nine starts against the Brewers, however, going 0-5 with a 5.17 ERA.
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Milwaukee had won 17 straight games against Pittsburgh before losing Monday. The Brew Crew came back with a 2-0 victory Tuesday, and I think they’ll win again today behind Suppan. Take the Brewers in this one.
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2♦ MILWAUKEE
Jeff Benton
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Seattle -130 at DETROIT
It took extra innings, but I scored a 5♦ free-play winner with the Phillies on Tuesday. That makes me 10-5 with freebies since I returned from vacation, including 3-1 over the last four days. For Wednesday, I’ll lay the money with the Mariners at Detroit.
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This play comes down to two words: Felix Hernandez. Where do I begin with Seattle’s All-Star? He’s 10-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 19 starts (with the Mariners going 14-5). He’s 6-1 with a ridiculous 1.97 ERA in 11 starts on the road (with the Mariners going 9-2). And he’s got 129 strikeouts against just 37 walks in 132 2/3 innings.
Want more? OK, Hernandez has won six consecutive decisions and hasn’t lost a game in more than two months (a 6-5 home setback to the Angels on May 19). Since that defeat, Hernandez has taken the mound 10 times, and the Mariners won nine of those contests (the only blemish being a 2-1 home loss to Minnesota, with Hernandez getting a no-decision). During this 10-start stretch, King Felix has delivered 10 straight quality outings, giving up a total of 11 earned runs in 76 innings – that’s a 1.30 ERA!
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If that’s not enough to convince you that Hernandez and the Mariners are the right side tonight, maybe this will: Hernandez has defeated Detroit four straight times – including a 6-3 home win on April 17 – and the right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in five of those six contests.
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Seattle has proven to be a reliable favorite in recent months (21-6 last 27 as a chalk, including 7-0 in the last seven as a road favorite). Throw in the fact that Tigers starter Armando Galarraga has been a big disappointment this year (5-8, 5.09 ERA), and this is a very reasonable price to lay with Hernandez and the Mariners, who have won 10 of their last 16 overall, including six of nine on the highway.
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3♦ SEATTLE