Karl Garrett
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San Francisco at ATLANTA
I am now 7-2 the last 9 days with my comp plays.
Wednesday night action tonight, and after a pair of OVERS at Turner Field the last 2 days, look for the pitching to take over tonight with Tim Lincecum, and Jair Jurrjens throwing aspirins at the batters.
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Lincecum has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts, and for the season his ERA is a miniscule 2.27!
Jurrjens is not in Lincecum's class just yet, but in 6 of his last 8 starts, he has surrendered 2 runs or less, which sets this game up as a classic pitching duel.
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7 of San Francisco's last 11 games have played LOW, and the G-Man just doesn't see the run total tonight getting much past 5 combined runs.
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Lincecum and Jurrjens hang some serious goose eggs on the board this Wednesday night, as the Giants and Braves stay UNDER.
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4♦ UNDER
THE SPREAD
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, 7:00PM ET
San Francisco is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Pick: San Francisco
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, 7:05PM ET
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
Pick: Detroit
St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, 8:05PM ET
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Pick: St. Louis
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at Detroit
Pick: Atlanta +5
The Detroit Shock have been a front runner in the WNBA East for a few years now, but this team has suffered losses that are showing up in the win loss column resulting in a 5-8 mark on the season. The Atlanta Dream had a disgraceful inaugural season in the league which saw them post just four wins, but what a difference a year makes as they enter here approaching the midway point of the season with almost double that total. The telltale of the Shock is the WNBA has been a home dominant league since its inception and this year no exception as home teams have converted 67% of the time, but the Shock have a losing record on their own court, and within the Conference, just 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall, while the Dream is 5-1 ATS vs the East. I will back Atlanta here.
Wunderdog
San Francisco at Atlanta
Pick: UNDER 7
Tim Lincecum has had a Cy Young season so far entering here 10-2 with a 2.27 ERA, but as good as that sounds he has been even better of late at 1.74 in his last three outings. Lincecum, unlike most pitchers, has pitched even better on the road where he brings a 2.13 ERA and a 5-1 road record into this one. Those numbers sound great, but they don't out-distance Jair Jurrgens by much as Jurrgens has posted a 2.77 ERA on the season himself. These pitchers combined average a 2.77 ERA against the respective teams they will face tonight, so they have high caliber numbers vs the lineups they will face here. These teams have also combined for a 28-12 mark to the under when the total is set from 7-8.5, and I will go with the UNDER in this one.
Yankee Capper
Brewers/Pirates Over 9
San Francisco Giants +110
Minnesota/Oakland Under 9
Boston/Texas Under 10
Rocketman Sports
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Milwaukee +100
Milwaukee is now 47-46 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in at 41-51 on the year. Milwaukee came back with a win last night after losing their first game against Pittsburgh after winning 17 straight. Jeff Suppan is 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA on the road this year and has a 2.41 ERA his last 3 starts. Milwaukee is 30-8 overall vs Pittsburgh last 3 years and 6-1 overall vs Pittsburgh this season. Suppan is 13-3 overall vs Pittsburgh since 1997. Maholm is 2-5 overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today!
Tony George
LOS -1.5 (+114) vs CIN
LA Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (+114) Cincy just a bad road team, and I really wanted to hammer LA on Tuesday and passed as I had 3 games already however I like them again tonight PLUS some cash on the moneyline to win by 2+ runs at home. Proving they are one of the Best teams in Baseball, with a serious offensive attack, with hitters galore, Cincy cannot trade pucnhes with them on the road. Cincy has won just 5 out of the last 27 games in this series!!
Terron Chapman
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are having a hard time getting things going to start the second half. They’ll hand the ball to a pitcher who has their only win of the second half when they conclude a three-game set with the Texas Rangers in Arlington Wednesday evening. The Red Sox have lost four straight and find themselves in danger of getting swept. They are just 1-4 after the break with Clay Bucholz picking up the only win in Toronto. He’ll be called on once again Wednesday, as he replaces Tim Wakefield who is on the DL with back issues. Bucholz was strong in Toronto, allowing one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings, striking out three and walking three. We cashed a ticket that afternoon in Toronto and feel he has the advantage when he takes the mound this time as well. In his only start against the Rangers, he threw six scoreless innings to beat them 8-3. His opponent on the mound will be Vicente Padilla who allowed five earned runs in seven innings against the Twins Friday. It was another poor performance for Padilla who continues to struggle at home. Opponents are hitting .338 against Padilla in Arlington where he is 3-4 with a 6.00 ERA. The Red Sox offense should be able to get things going against Padilla with key contributors such as Kevin Youkilis (.417 avg., 1.167 .OPS) David Ortiz (.333 avg., 2 hr’s, 1.311 .OPS) JD Drew (.368 avg., 1 hr, 1.11 .OPS) and Mark Kotsay (.385 avg., 2 hr’s, 1.125) all having had success against him. We’ll lay the slight chalk on the road team here in a must win situation. Play on the Boston Red Sox for 1 unit.
MTi Sports
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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers are 15-1 as a home 140+ favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two and the Reds are 0-15 as a 170+ dog and it is the last game of the series. Consider laying the price with LA.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants +102
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I'll back the Giants for 1 Unit tonight with ace Time Lincecum on the hill. Lincecum is 10-2 on the season with a 2.27 ERA, 5-1 on the road with an ERA of 2.13, and 2-0 over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.74. Lincecum has owned the Braves to the tune of 5-0 with an ERA of 2.08 in his career. Jurrjens looks like a good young pitcher for the Braves, but he isn't as dominant as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. In fact, the Braves are 1-4 in Jurrjens' last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Giants here.
Jeff Saad
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Rays at White Sox
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Carlos Torres, who was 8-4 with a 2.20 ERA at Triple-A Charlotte, will be added to the Chicago 40-man roster and will make his major-league debut in place of John Danks. He faces one of the top run producing teams in baseball here. Tampa Bay goes with James Shield, and the team is 7-! 3 his last 10 starts. Have to back the experienced ace against the kid.
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Play the Rays.
Nelly
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Arizona at Colorado Over
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Jon Garland has a 4.45 ERA on the season and even though he has had some decent efforts of late his overall numbers are poor with a horrendous 1.10 strikeout to walk ratio. Garland has pitched well away from home but pitching in Colorado is problematic for anyone and he is yet to pitch there this season. Ubaldo Jimenez has had a good but not dominant year and the Rockies have lost four of his last five starts as he is allowing runs. At home the 'over' is 5-3 in his starts and his WHIP is up to 1.39. These teams feature two of the worst bullpens in baseball and the recent numbers are even worse. In the last ten games Colorado has a bullpen ERA of 4.76 and Arizona has a bullpen ERA of 5.40. Both offenses are getting the job done with Arizona batting .279 and Colorado .271 over the last ten games. Although Coor's Field is rightfully valued as one of the highest scoring parks in baseball the 'over' has still had a lot of success there going 24-18-2 for the year. The first two games of this series went 'over' and no lead is ever safe with these pitching staffs.
Freddy Wills
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Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Florida Marlins
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I really like this pitching match up advantage Marlins with Nolasco on the mound against the worst hitting team. Nolasco impressed me in two starts a little while back on the road against NYY and TOR. He owns a 2.57 ERA in 2 career stats at San Diego. He'll face a lineup that has really struggled all year long and in their last 10 games vs. RHP they have a .203 average scoring just 2.14 runs per 9 innings. Not very good if you ask me. Geer will go for the Padres and they are 1-7 the last 8 starts where he was an underdog. He has a 5.20 ERA at home and 4.94ERA during the day. I don't think he'll get hit hard which is what stopped me from taking the run line on the Marlins, but I do think the Marlins will get enough run support as I think Nolasco will throw a gem. Marlins last 10 vs. RHP are averaging 3.96 runs per 9 innings nearly 2 more than the Padres are and they are hitting .62 pts higher. Marlins are 8-2 in Nolasco's last 10 starts vs. the NL West and they are 17-5 overall in their last 22 games as favorites. Take that into fact along with the Padres are 18-42 in their last 60 as under dogs and 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. RH starter (Nolasco RHP) I'm going with the Marlins!
Mike Rose
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Tampa Bay Rays -132
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Big game James was simply out of character against Kansas City in his initial start out of the break getting tagged for seven ERs on 11 hits in just 5.1 innings of work. It was the first time in two-plus months that he failed to go at least six innings. The Rays are an even 10-10 in his 20 09 starts, but theye a poor 3-6 in his nine starts as a visitor where he owns a 4.60 ERA & 1.36 WHIP. Tampas a perfect 3-0 in his L/3 starts against Chicago, and in his career vs. the White Sox, hes 1-1 with a 4.94 ERA.
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Making his big league debut for the Palehose will be Carlos Torres. He gets the call to the bump due to John Danks blister problems on his throwing hand. This is more than likely a spot start with Bartolo Colon scheduled to make his return from the minors in a doubleheader on Friday. The righty owns an 8-4 record with a 2.20 ERA and K/BB ratio of 96/38 through 98 total minor league innings of work this season. Carlos earned his next guy in line role by working hard in the system and getting elected to the Triple-A All Star game.
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With staff ace Mark Buehrle scheduled to go in the series finale on Thursday, look for Manager John Maddon to have his men extremely motivated to win tonights game. They were lucky to steal last nights game, but they hold a major advantage in G3 with Shields opposing a kid making his big league debut. Tuesday nights loss was simply demoralizing and Im not so sure Chicago will be able to bounce back from it. Look for Shields to bring his A game especially since he got lit up his last time out, and for the Rays offense to finally go off in this series.
King Creole
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CLE (+135) vs TOR
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WRONG team favored! When we can get a sizable Underdog at a great price in Carl Pavano's current form, we'll be all over it. And besides, this is a series that the Indians have DOMINATED. Cleveland has gone 26-10 in the last 36 meetings vs the Jays... including 20-8 in the last 28 north of the border (and 5-1 in the last 6).
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PAVANO comes in on a 3-game stretch in which he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in ALL three starts. The most recent game was a quality start on the road vs the division rival Detroit Tigers in which he went 8 innings... allowed only 2 earned runs... had 6 strikeouts and ZERO walks. K/BB ratio in those last 3 starts is a 'play ON' 15 to 2. He usually comes off a strong start in good form as he has gone 7-1 when pitching off a Quality Start. He's also FANTASTIC when priced as an underdog, going 5-1 in his last 6 DOG roles.
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He'll be taking on an 'out-of-form' Rickey Romero, who got blasted in his post-All Star start vs the Red Sox on Friday night. Opponents are hitting .388 vs him in his last 3 starts with an ERA approaching 5.00. His Blue Jay teammates are on a crappy current 5-14 run in their last 19 games... 3-9 in their last 12 vs righties... 5-16 after scoring 2 < runs in their previous game... 1-6 after allowing 2 or less runs... and 1-5 in Game Two of a series. They are also LOUSY favorites, going 2-7 in their last 9 'chalk' roles including 1-4 at home.