Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 24

Marc Lawrence

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

The Royals and Orioles meet in Game Three of this four-game series at Kauffman Stadium Wednesday evening where Ervin Santana opposes Wei-Yin Chen. Santana takes the hill with wins in five of his last six-team starts during July, and four of his last five-team starts at home against Baltimore. With the Orioles 0-3 this season in starts behind Chen in games against the AL Central, the Royals get the call here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Rocketman

LA Dodgers @ Toronto
Play: LA Dodgers +101

The LA Dodgers travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays on Wednesday night. The LA Dodgers have now won five in a row and will be going for the sweep here in Toronto tonight. LA Dodgers are now 14-4 in the month of July. Toronto is 2-12 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Toronto has now lost six games in a row heading into Wednesday night. The Dodgers are scoring 12 runs per game on turf this year, both turf games in Toronto. The Dodgers are allowing only 2.3 runs per game their past seven games overall. Toronto is allowing 6.9 runs per game their past seven games overall where opponents are batting a combined .292. Ricky Nolasco is 3-3 with a 3.01 ERA on the road this year and has a 3.12 ERA his last 3 starts. Esmil Rogers is 1-1 with a 5.90 ERA at home this year and 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA his last 3 starts. Nolasco has a 3.00 ERA in his one start vs Toronto in his career while Rogers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in his three starts vs the Dodgers in his career. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

Pittsburgh Pirates +123

Francisco Liriano has been pitching some lights-out games this year. He has a 2.44 ERA this season with a 9-4 record in his 13 starts. The Nationals will have Stephen Strasburgh getting the start. Even though Strasburg has put up some solid numbers this year, the bottom line is Washington has a 7-12 record in his 19 starts. Over his last three starts Strasburg has posted a 7.80 ERA with a 1.733 WHIP.

The Pirates will also have an offensive advantage in this game. Washington is batting .244 over their past seven games and scoring a mere 2.7 runs per game. Pittsburgh has averaged 4 runs per game on the road this year with a comparable batting average. The Nationals strand too many runners to win this game. With Strasburg pitching as poorly as he has this should be an easy win for Liriano and the Pirates.

Freddy Wills

Cleveland Indians +107

Scott Kazmir has had value all year long due to the fact that his expectations based on previous seasons have been extremely low, but he is coming into this start with an ERA of 2.74 over his last 4 starts and his raw stats look good as well. What has really hurt him is the long ball and the Mariners just are not a power hitting team in their own ballpark which should benefit Kazmir on Wednesday afternoon. it also helps that the Mariners have struggled to hit lefties all season and even more so of late with a .148 average and a 1.57 runs per 9 average over their last 10 games. Cleveland who will also face a lefty on Wednesday have been dominant scoring 5.85 runs per 9 over their last 10. Cleveland will be backed by a bullpen that is hotter right now too.

In this day of age starting pitching is just as much important as the bullpen. The Indians bullpen combined average over their last 3 games each is a 2.75 ERA compared to the Mariners 5.48. Which checks up against the last 10 game ERA's of 5.52 and 2.36. Joe Saunders will make the start for the Mariners but the Indians have hit him hard with a .782 OPS in 111 AB. Saunders will have his hands full with the Indians offense that is ranked 3rd in OPS vs. LHP and 2nd in OPS during day games. Meanwhile the Mariners check in at 26th vs. LHP and 17th during day games.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Chad Gaudin (2-1, 19 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 0.95 ERA)
John Lannan (2-1, 21 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Mike Pelfrey (2-1, 17.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.55 ERA)
Jerred Weaver (2-1, 19 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Joe Saunders (3-0, 19.1 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 1.86 ERA)
David Price (2-1, 25 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 2.52 ERA)
Felix Doubrant (3-0, 20 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Jake Westborok (2-1, 20.1 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 2.66 ERA)
Wei-Yen Chen (3-0, 18.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 0.98 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Bud Norris (1-2, 17.2 IP, 1.75 WHIP, 7.13 ERA)
Stephen Strasburg (1-2, 15 IP, 1.73 WHIP, 7.80 ERA)
Jeremy Hefner (1-2, 16 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 6.19 ERA)
Jeff Samardzija (1-2, 18 IP, 1.78 WHIP, 7.50 ERA)
Esmil Rogers (1-2, 16.2 IP, 1.62 WHIP, 6.48 ERA)

Art Aronson

Cincinnati vs. San Francisco
Play: Under 7½

Mike Leake (9-4, 2.79 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Leake is coming off an impressive 5-3 win over the Pirates on Friday, giving up three earned runs off six hits with two walks while striking out five over 5 2/3's innings of work (note that all three runs came off solo shots). Leake brings his 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 76:28 K:BB ratio into San Francisco (note that Leake has a near-perfect 6-1, 2.19 ERA road record) to throw opposite Chad Gaudin (4-1, 2.15 ERA) who went eight scoreless frames vs. the Diamondbacks on Friday, scattering three hits while walking no one and striking out eight in his teams eventual 2-0 victory. The hard-throwing right-hander has allowed just two earned runs this month off 10 hits with five walks spanning 19 total innings of work (note that Gaudin sports a minuscule 0.55 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year). For this selection I'm concentrating solely on the starting pitchers; both of these studs come in with plenty of momentum and I believe the stage is set for a classic pitchers duel. Consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Jim Feist

Yankees at Rangers
Pick: Under

NY has lefty Andy Pettitte (7-7, 4.47 ERA) going, who still knows how to throw strikes walking only 28 in 104+ innings. The under is 15-5-2 in the Yankees last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record and this New York offense is terrible, 22nd in baseball in runs scored, 24th in OBP and 28th in slugging. Texas will debut Matt Garza, who they traded for with the Cubs, sending a bunch of young talent to Chicago. Garza was the most dominant starter for the Cubs this season. Garza was set to be a free agent after this year so Chicago had little choice but to get something for him now. Garza was 6-1 for the Cubs this season with a 3.17 ERA. The under is 23-9-1 in Rangers last 33 games as a home favorite and 21-7-1 under the total in their last 29 vs. American League East. And the under is 25-10-3 in Yankees last 38 road games.

Matt Fargo

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Chicago Cubs

After winning the opener of this series on Monday, the Cubs lost Game Two last night but I expect a turnaround tonight as we are getting some solid value with the road team. Chicago has been playing pretty well over the last month, going 15-12 in its last 27 games including a decent 8-7 record on the road. The Cubs have avoided long losing streaks which is the key and they are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. Jeff Samardzija takes the hill tonight looking to build on his most recent start as he allowed just one run in 7.1 innings at Colorado to open the second half. That made it five straight quality starts on the road, posting a 1.40 ERA in the process which has lowered his overall ERA on the road to 2.56 to go along with a powerful 1.00 WHIP. The Cubs have won his last four road starts. Arizona kept pace with the red hot Dodgers as it remains a half-game behind the leaders in the National League West. The Diamondbacks are just 5-7 over their last 12 games overall including a 4-5 record at home and I don't expect that to get better with Ian Kennedy on the mound tonight. He is having a rough season with a 5.29 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through 19 starts including a 5.36 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in seven home starts. He opened the second half with a quality outing at San Francisco but he took the loss as run support was an issue again. Arizona has scored a total of two runs in his last three starts. He has registered just one quality outing in his last six home starts and going back further, the Diamondbacks are 1-7 in his last eight starts overall. In seven career starts against the Cubs, Kennedy has a 6.65 ERA.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1½ -109

The Angels are a value play on the run line here with staff ace J. Weaver on the mound. Weaver has won all 6 home starts vs the Twins and has a 19-2 home record in July games. He has pitched 85 innings allowing just 10 earned runs of late in that role. His counter part Mike Pelfrey is a terrible road pitcher throughout his career and this season has been no different as Pelfrey checks in with a 5.49 road era and has lost 8 of his last 10 away. The Angels are 61-24 long term as a home favorite in this range. They are averaging over 5 runs per game in day action and have won 7 of the last 10 here vs the Twins. Minnesota has lost 12 of 18 this month and is in a tough spot here. The Angles will look to bounce back from last nights blowout loss in a game that was blown open late by the Twins. There is also a solid 85% system based on last nights loss that applies to home favorites off losses by 5+ runs. Look for LA To win by more than a run today.

Alex Smart

Los Angeles Dodgers -101

The Blue Jays blew a big lead last night to these same LA Dodgers and eventually lost a 10-9 decision. The Jays over hyped pitching continues to implode on a regular basis. Toronto has now lost 8 straight games to an above .500 team and have dropped 6 straight overall including 5 straight as favorites on the moneyline.

Meanwhile the Dodgers have won 22 of their L/27 overall including 14 of their L/16 road games, and have cashed 7 straight times as road underdogs. With that said, there is obvious value backing a red hot Dodgers team in this spot. LA has won 5 of their L/6 in TO and number 6 Im betting comes tonight.

Steve Rosen

Seattle Mariners -109

Joe Saunders looks to continue his stellar July as the Seattle Mariners carry their season-best eight-game winning streak into Wednesday afternoon’s series finale against the visiting Cleveland Indians. Saunders will attempt to improve upon his 4-0 record and 1.73 ERA this month as the Mariners try to complete their consecutive series sweep. Cleveland is just 1-4 on a six-game road trip that wraps up Wednesday.

Kazmir gave up five runs and seven hits over three frames in a no-decision against Seattle on May 20 and is 3-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 10 career starts against the Mariners.

Saunders gave up just two earned runs in his first three July starts before allowing three runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings against Houston in his last outing.

Bruce Marshall

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals

It's been tricky business to go against the red-hot Orioles, who were finally cooled off in KC during last night's 3-2 loss. But with that Birds balloon momentarily deflated, the Royals could take advantage in the third game of this four-game midweek set tonight at Kauffman Stadium. Especially if Royals starter Ervin Santana is as sharp as he was in his last outing when limiting the Tigers to no runs and just two hits in 7 1/3 brilliant innings of work in a 1-0 win on July 19. Worth noting that Santana could also be in trade window and could benefit himself greatly with another solid start. No knocks on O's starter Wei-Yin Chen, but he's going to have to outpitch Santana, also 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last four home starts.

Stephen Nover

Philadelphia +160

St. Louis has the best record in baseball. So why fade the Cardinals?

Have you actually checked the standings? It shows the Cardinals to be a phenomenal 50-25 versus righties, but only 10-12 versus lefties. That's right, the Cardinals have a losing record against southpaws.

The Phillies are in a desperate spot needing to show management they can get into serious playoff contention before the trade deadline, or face the probable consequence of having their veterans traded off.

So the Phillies are not going to lack for motivation. They also have John Lannan going. He's left-handed. And he's hot. Lannan has a 2.84 ERA in six starts since coming off the DL. He's given up only one run and eight hits during his past two starts spanning 16 innings.

Lannan isn't a big strikeout pitcher. But he's the kind of crafty, gritty lefty who can cause problems for the Cardinals. That's proven in his history versus St. Louis, which is giving up two runs or fewer in seven career starts the last of which came two years ago. The Phillies have a rested Jonathan Papelbon to close if needed.

Lannan isn't a major talent, but neither is Cardinals starter Jake Westbrook. The 35-year-old has found new life in the National League as he wasn't nearly as effective when he pitched for Cleveland.

Westbrook is 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA. However, only two of Westbrook's 13 starts have come against foes ranking among the upper half in runs scored. Westbrook has compiled a 2.66 ERA against three of the weakest-hitting teams - Marlins, Cubs and Padres.

Westbrook has a 4.41 lifetime ERA against the Phillies. Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young, Laynce Nix and Chase Utley are all batting at least .364 or higher against Westbrook.

Will Rogers

Miami vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado

I'm taking the Rockies as my free play Wednesday. Miami has come into Denver and surprisingly taken the first two games of this four-game set. I can't see them making it three in a row. Not with Major League Baseball's worst offense.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Miami Offense - Of course, I'll start here. The Marlins rank last in baseball in essentially every offensive category, including total hits, team batting average, home runs, on base percentage and slugging percentage. Even in their wins the last two days, they've managed just seven runs total. They've been fortunate that Colorado has scored only three. The Marlins recently went 37 innings without scoring a single run. They face a lefty in Jorge De La Rosa tonight and that's bad news because Miami averages just 2.7 runs per game vs. southpaws.

2. Home Field Advantage - It hasn't mattered so far in this series, but with De La Rosa on the hill, it should tonight. That because the Rockies' starter owns a fantastic 22-4 TSR as a home favorite of -150 or more. Miami is still only 16-34 on the road this season.

3. X-Factor - Miami has not won three consecutive road games all season.

Bryan Power

LA Dodgers vs. Toronto
Pick: LA Dodgers

It appears as if the Dodgers can't be denied. Tuesday saw them rally back from an 8-3 deficit in Toronto to defeat the Blue Jays 10-9, their 22nd win in 27 games & fifth straight overall. They have now scored 10+ runs in B2B wins & will look to finish off the sweep North of the Border. I look for them to get the job done

Ricky Nolasco will be making his fourth start for the Dodgers tonight after being acquired from Miami earlier this month. He has pitched well for his new team w/ a 3.12 ERA and the team has won both his road outings. Look for him to handle a Toronto lineup that has to be deflated after blowing the lead last night.

While the Dodgers have been busy moving to to the top of the National League West, the Blue Jays have been stuck in the cellar of the American League East. They have now lost six in a row and eight of their last nine. Esmil Rogers gets the start tonight and has a 5.90 ERA in four previous starts at home. These are simply two teams heading in opposite directions.