John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have won three straight games and are now 20 games over 0.500 and in very strong position to earn a playoff spot. Even more important to the city of Pittsburgh and the Pirate fans is the fact they need to win just 23 more games of the remaining 64 games to post their first winning season in nearly 2 decades. Washington is floundering amid a very poor and inconsistent offense. Pirates have the second best record in baseball and they are playing far better team baseball than Washington could ever dream of possessing in their locker room. The simulator shows a high probability that the Pirates will win this game. One of the reasons Pittsburgh is at the top of MLB play is the simple fact that they defeat the losing record teams they should defeat. Pirates are a solid 36-14 (+22.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Nationals are 1-7 (-8.0 Units) against the money line when facing NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Take Pittsburgh.
Jesse Schule
Miami vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
After getting the win with the Fish yesterday, I'm turning right around and betting against them today. Miami sends another young pitcher to the mound, and Jacob Turner has looked good at times in his first season. The 22 year old has not fared so well on the road though, as he's 0-2 with a 3.10 ERA in five starts. Turner allowed a pair of runs on five hits over just five innings in a loss to Milwaukee his last time out. He also walked four and allowed a pair of home runs in that game.
The Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa to the mound, hoping to avoid a third straight loss at home to the worst team in the majors. De La Rosa (9-5, 3.12 ERA) allowed a single run on five hits over six innings, not factoring in the decision in a loss to the Cubs his last time out. He's been at his best at home, posting a record of 5-1, 2.96 ERA in nine starts at Coors Field.
The big bats in the Rockies lineup have fallen silent lately, but with players like Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki, it's just a matter of time before they start hitting balls out of the park again.
The value lies with a play on the home team, facing the cellar dwelling Fish.
Greg Shaker
Chicago Cubs +125
I try to look at things logically when playing MLB even though in many ways it is an illogical sport to handicap. No matter what we do some kind of crazy crap can and does happen a lot. So what about this one? Well the DBacks are 4 games above .500 I think and the Cubs are 9 games below. Let's X Arizona right there. But Kennedy has not won since June 1st. X on the Cubs. The Cubs are the Cubs and always will be. Another X for Arizona. Both starters have been awful over their last 3 with Samardzija allowing 14 runs over 10 2/3 innings in his final two starts before the All-Star break. He did came back refreshed and hold the Colorado Rockies to one run on four hits in 7 1/3 frames to earn the win on Friday. Cubs X. Clearly he was suffering arm fatigue prior to the break. Also clearly the break did little to help Kennedy's control issues and poor K/BB numbers in his Post Break start at SF. Over his last 3 he has a K/BB of 9/7. That's not too spiffy folks and his far far away from what he was producing earlier in the year. That's a Cubs X! The Cubs starter has had great success verses these DBacks over his career, limiting them to a very low BA. X! The Cubs are the Cubs. I know, I've already used that one but that one deserves another X. Let's count this up. Cubs 4, DBacks 3. I'm going to play this one at the current line.
Jeffrey Brandes
Cincinnati Reds -114
Pitchers:
CINCINNATI REDS: MIKE LEAKE (R) ERA: 2.79 W/L: 9-4
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: CHAD GAUDIN (R) ERA: 2.23 W/L: 4-0
Key Trends:
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
Steve Janus
Chicago Cubs +125
The Cubs are showing some great value as a decent priced road underdog in a game where they have a solid edge on the mound. Chicago's Jeff Samardzija has saved his best for the road, as he comes into this one with a 2.56 ERA and 0.995 WHIP over 10 starts away from home. After allowing 14 runs in back-to-back home starts before the All-Star break, Samardzija allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 and 1/3 innings of a 3-1 Cubs win at Colorado last Friday.
Not only do you have to like Samardzija's chances of shutting down the Diamondbacks offense, but the Cubs should be able to provide some decent run support against the struggling Ian Kennedy. It hasn't mattered where Kennedy has taken the mound in 2013. He's 3-7 with a 5.29 ERA overall and 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA at home. There's clearly something not right with the former ace of the Diamondbacks, yet he continues to get overvalued on the money line. Adding even more value here is the fact that Kennedy has a 6.65 ERA over seven career starts vs the Cubs. His second highest mark against NL opponents.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox +101
The Rays are playing some outstanding baseball, but they've had their share of struggles against Boston. With yesterday's defeat, they fell to 4-10 in the last 14 meetings. They've also lost six of their last eight at Fenway. Tampa Bay's David Price is an outstanding pitcher. However, this season hasn't exactly gone as planned as evidenced by his 4.03 ERA. The Rays are 2-5 in his last seven starts versus division opponents, and they've lost both of his starts versus Boston this season. They are also 0-4 in his last four starts versus a club that sports a winning record. Boston's Felix Doubront is in a groove, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts. Plus, he's had no shortage of success against the Rays, and the Red Sox are 5-0 in his last five starts against Tampa Bay as a result. Take Boston.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Dodgers +102
Once thought to be one of baseball's most disappointing teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers have surged into the NL West lead and are on the verge of their longest road winning streak in 58 years.
The Dodgers are 22-5 in their last 27 games overall after rallying for a 10-9 victory Tuesday. A victory Wednesday would give the franchise its first 10-game winning streak away from home since the then-Brooklyn Dodgers won their first 11 road games in 1955.
Toronto has lost a season-high six straight games coming in. Esmil Rogers won't be able to stop the bleeding as he's 1-1 with a 5.90 ERA in four home starts this year, and 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts.
Ricky Nolasco was an excellent addition to Los Angeles' rotation before the trade deadline. Nolasco has posted a 3.75 ERA in 21 starts this season, a 3.01 ERA in 11 road starts, and a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts overall.
The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Los Angeles is 14-2 in its last 16 road games. The Blue Jays are 0-8 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.
Don Best Consensus
Oakland at Houston
Pick: Under
Under is 7-1 in OAK last 8 road games. Under is 15-5-1 in OAK last 21 overall. Under is 11-3 in Houston's last 14 games following a win. Play: Under
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +103 over TORONTO
Once again it’s not that the Blue Jays lost for the sixth straight time yesterday, it’s the way they loss that has this team more demoralized than they’ve been the entire year. One night after committing five errors and getting smoked 14-5, the Blue Jays blew a five-run lead after six innings by allowing seven runs combined in the seventh and eighth innings en route to a 10-9 loss. In two games here, the Dodgers have scored 23 times on 29 hits. The Blue Jays have 28 hits over the past two days but the difference is they have two losses. Toronto is finding ways to lose. Poor defense, untimely hitting and lousy starting pitching have all contributed to the Jays being nine games under .500 and in last place in the AL East. The Blue Jays are not a team you want to back at a price right now against the hottest club in the majors. Prior to the season, Esmil Rogers was a "legitimate bullpen weapon," based upon the decent skills he posted in the 2H after escaping Coors Field for more pitcher-friendly pastures in Cleveland. Injuries have forced him back into the rotation, where he owns a career 6.56 ERA but he’s holding up well with a 3.85 ERA. The question is, can it last? Better luck and plate command have been the key drivers behind Rogers’ moderate success but a 26% line drive rate assures us that his 77% strand rate is not going to last. With Ricky Romero still scuffling in Triple-A and injured Brandon Morrow unlikely to return until mid-August, Rogers' encore audition as a starter will continue into the immediate future. A recent 7 ER disaster vs. Detroit and a not so good start against the Rays has the confidence Rogers was gaining trending the wrong way. Rogers now has the unenviable task of facing the Dodgers in an unforgiving park (Rogers Centre enhances HR’s by 24%).
Over his last five starts covering 29 innings, Ricky Nolasco has a strong 5/24 - BB/K rate. Since coming over from Miami, Nolasco is 1-1 in three starts with a 3.12 ERA. Nolasco was once a near-elite skill set just waiting for some hit/strand rate regression to facilitate a major breakout but pitching for a losing team year after year takes its toll. Now pitching for a team that is a legit threat to win a championship, Nolasco’s drive and focus has been rejuvenated. The Dodgers have won nine road games in a row and are very aware that the club has never won 10 road games in succession since moving from Brooklyn to L.A. in 1955. Not that they need any extra motivation but L.A. figures to have some here in an attempt to do something that no other Dodger team has done before them. The fact that the Dodgers are billed as the underdog in this contest is a bit ludicrous. Wrong side favored.
Chicago +125 over ARIZONA
Since the start of 2012, Ian Kennedy’s skills have been getting progressively worse and have never been as bad as they are right now. When Kennedy posted a 21-4 record, a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2011, he exhibited great command but that is no longer the case. Last year, Kennedy posted a 1.30 WHIP and 4.02 ERA over 33 starts. This year his 1.39 WHIP is bordering on disastrous and the results are three wins in 19 starts with only eight of those being of the pure quality variety. Over his last five starts, Kennedy has walked 14 batters in 29 frames, leading to a 1.64 WHIP and 5.52 ERA. Kennedy has always had a fly-ball bias profile (37%/40% GB/FB) but this year his line-drive rate is higher than it’s even been at 25%. Kennedy also has a 5.40 ERA the first time he goes through lineups and his skills do not improve the second and third times through. Ian Kennedy has averaged over 200 innings per year over the past three seasons. In total, he’s pitched 636.2 innings since the start of the 2010 season. He’s spent 0 days on the DL over that span and it appears all those innings, including the 114 he’s worked this season, have taken a big toll on his arm. As the chalk, Kennedy, the D-Backs offense and their weak bullpen is far too big a risk.
Jeff Samardzija has some of the best skills in the game. He’s 4th in the NL in strikeouts with 134 in 131.1 innings. Samardzija also has a 48% groundball rate to go along with an impressive 18% line-drive rate. Samardzija is coming off a beauty at Coors Field, where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 7.1 frames. Samardzija is simply the far superior pitcher in this match-up and he’s taking back a tag. The D-Backs went off for 10 runs yesterday but that was a rare outburst from this host, as they have been held to three runs or less in eight of their past 12 games and as a group they have had little success against Samardzija with just 12 hits in 51 AB’s for a BA of .235.
Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Dodgers over the Blue Jays.
When you are hot, you're hot, and right now the Dodgers qualify as red-hot!
Comeback win for L.A. last night makes it a 5 in a row (and all on the road!), and 22 of their last 27 in the win column, as Los Angeles has claimed first place in the N.L. West.
The Dodgers have also won 9 in a row on the road, and a win tonight would give them their first 10 game road win streak since franchise-high mark of 11 set way back in the 1950's when the team was still based in Brooklyn!
Ricky Nolasco has gone 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA since coming over from Miami. He will work against a Toronto team that has now lost 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9.
Esmil Rogers counters with an 0-1 mark his last 3 efforts, and an ERA of 6.48 in those starts. With the Dodgers swinging the bats quite well right now, look for that ERA to stay where it is at.
Take the streaking Dodgers.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner tonight is Tampa Bay over Boston.
The Red Sox got the better of the Rays last night, but Tampa is still 17-3 their last 20 games, and have not lost back-to-back contests in nearly a month.
Great pitching matchup between David Price and Felix Doubront, and perhaps the Under may also be in the cards in this one, as I do not see too many runs coming home at Fenway Park tonight.
Give the advantage to Tampa though, as Price is the owner of a 4-1 mark in his 8 starts in Beantown with an ERA of 2.13.
Doubront is the owner of some respectable numbers against Tampa, as the southpaw is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his 6 starts versus the Rays.
In a tight one, gonna go with Tampa to edge Boston and close to 1/2 games behind in the A.L. East standings.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Brett Atkins
My free play for Wednesday afternoon comes out of Anaheim, where the Angels are hosting the Minnesota Twins. And make note, though Run Line plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, I want you to be sure ONE of the pitchers scheduled to go tonight is the starter of record on your ticket when making your play: Jeff Weaver. If for some reason his opponent, Mike Pelfrey, is scratched, your ticket will be voided. IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action with the pitcher I want listed and the new pitcher scheduled to start by re-wagering the game if that takes place.
Realistically, his misstep in Seattle has been Weaver's only blemish in his past five starts. Since a dominating showing against American League West-leading Oakland, the Angels' ace has surrendered just six runs, with four coming against the Mariners, over his last 33 innings. And in his career, he's generally dominated the Twins.
Weaver, who is 7-2 lifetime against Minnesota, has a remarkable strikeout-to-walk ratio of 52-to-14 over his last 10 starts.
He will dominate Minnesota today, and should get plenty of run support against Pelfrey, who is 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA on the year. Then again, it won't matter who the Twins throw, as their starters rank dead last in the bigs with a 5.16 ERA.
All Angels here.
3♦ ANGELS -1.5
Chris Jordan
Last night I nailed the Pittsburgh Pirates as my free play, over the Washington Nationals. Tonight I like the Over in their game. Sounds a bit sketchy, right? But yes, even with Francisco Liriano and Stephen Strasburg - matter of fact, because of them - I'm rolling with the high in this game.
I know both have been pitching well, and it's hard to imagine a meltdown with these two, but something tells me the Nationals have had enough of losing, and will strongly vie for an offensive surge in this one, against the Bucs, looking to salvage this series.
In turn, the Pirates will have no choice but to respond, and will come after Strasburg, while manufacturing runs on the basepaths to get their runs. Sure, I can see a 4-3 game either way - which would result in a push - but 6-4 sounds more like tonight's final for one of these teams. Take the Over.
1♦ OVER Pirates/Nationals
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Wednesday night is on the St. Louis Cardinals Run Line, against the Philadelphia Phillies, as I don't think there is a chance in hell Philly will be able to hang tonight. I don't care who ends up being the listed pitchers for tonight, so be sure to keep an eye on your wager leading up to the first pitch at 8:15 p.m. eastern, because a scratch could result in a no play, and we don't want that tonight. Not when the Cardinals are in a good position to start one of their patented second-half streaks.
I do see we have the matchup of Jake Westbrook and John Lannan, though, and that's even more of a reason to like this game, as St. Louis' right-hander has been stellar all season, and comes in with a 2.88 ERA on the year.
And even though Westbrook's offensive game stole the spotlight last Friday, make note he opened the second half of the campaign with a quality start. He's now pitched into the seventh frame in three straight starts and I think against the aggressively swinging Phils will continue to live by the command of his sinker.
As for Lannan, while it's true he's produced a 2.84 mark in his last six outings, remember this is the same southpaw who pitched to a 6.14 ERA in April. I don't think he is going to last too long against the Redbirds.
2♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Kyle Hunter
Rays / Red Sox Over 9
No one in Major League Baseball is hotter than the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are 21-4 in their last 25 games overall. They have gone from middle of the pack to knocking on the door of first place in the AL East. Boston is doing their best to hold them off, but the Rays are coming quickly. This is a very important game for both teams.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but the Rays win every year. Joe Maddon has done a terrific job turning this team into a contender every single year. It seems the club house just has a winning attitude. The Rays are averaging 4.68 runs per game. Their offense has been surprisingly good. Evan Longoria has stayed healthy better than normal this year, and that makes a big difference. Ben Zobrist is one of the most versatile players in baseball. James Loney has been a great addition to the offense as well.
The Rays pitching staff is about as deep as any staff in baseball. David Price won the AL Cy Young award last year, but he hasn’t been himself this year due to injuries. He seems to be turning the corner of late though, and he’ll start in this game. With Matt Moore, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Archer, and Alex Cobb this Rays team is loaded with great arms. They also have a good defense behind them. Tampa Bay has committed only 38 errors so far this year. This is a team that does things the right way.
Boston has led the AL East almost the whole way in 2013, but that is in jeopardy right now. Boston’s offense has been superb this season. The Red Sox are first in the majors in runs scored per contest at 5.07 runs per game. David Ortiz leads the team with a .321 average and 19 homers. Dustin Pedroia has been the steadiest producer for the team all year. Jacoby Ellsbury has been hitting the extremely well of late. Ellsbury also has 37 stolen bases and has been thrown out only 3 times. Mike Napoli and Daniel Nava are underrated run producers for this lineup as well. From top to bottom this is probably baseball’s best offense right now.
Boston’s pitching staff hasn’t been all that good of late. Injuries have certainly hurt this pitching staff quite a bit with guys like Clay Buchholz, Andrew Miller, and Joel Hanrahan down for an extended period of time. Felix Doubront might not be a household name, but he is 7-3 with a 3.76 ERA for the Red Sox in 2013. He’ll go against a team that has scorched left-handed pitching so far this year in this one.
The Red Sox have hit Price well in their last couple chances against him, and the Rays are hitting above .280 against lefties this year. Look for a high scoring game.