Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday July, 25

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals fit a solid system that has cashed 21 of the last 25 times. We want to play on home favorites at -140 or higher that are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs and had 5 or more men left on base in a game where the total was 8 or less, if the opponent is off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits with 5 or more men left on base and had no errors in the loss.. The Cardinals have won 7 of the last 9 at home vs National league West teams and average 5 runs per game here at home. The have Kyle Lohse making the start and he is 7-2 at home with a 2.61 era and has won his last 3 here. He has also won his last 4 home July starts dating back to last season. Tonight he will oppose A. Harang who has lost his last 5 road decision in St. Louis. Look for the Cardinals to take another against the Dodgers.

David Chan

Boston vs. Texas
Pick: Over

The Red Sox' Josh Beckett (5-8, 4.53 ERA) is set to square off against the Rangers' Derek Holland (6-5, 4.84 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Beckett has shown flashes of his old brilliance at times this year, and in others he's looked every bit his age. After a great start, Beckett has struggled for the most part, and his first inning ERA of 10.69 is obviously a huge concern for the club. In his last start vs. Toronto he gave up a pair of runs in the first frame; the big right-hander has now given up a total of 10 runs in the first inning over his last three starts. Since coming back from the DL at the end of June, Beckett is just 1-1 with a pedestrian 5.87 ERA. Note that he's been particularly ineffective on the road and in "night games", going 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1-6 with a 5.28 ERA respectively.

Holland is also coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off nine hits over 6 2/3's frames of work in his team's eventual 6-1 setback to the Angels last Friday; he walked one and had zero K's. Holland has been an enigma for the most part this year, after his break out 2011 campaign. Unfortunately, a little "home cooking" is not what the doctor ordered, as the southpaw is just 2-3 with a 6.38 ERA at Rangers Ballpark.

Struggling starters vs. two of the most explosive line-ups in the league; all signs point to a high-scoring affair!

Dave Cokin

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Boston Red Sox

Now that the streaky Red Sox have ended their latest skid, it makes sense to try them tonight. Josh Beckett likes pitching in his native state and Derek Holland has been shaky for the Rangers. I'll try the Boston side here.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have been red-hot, winning six straight games and eight of their last 10. Of course it helps playing the worst team in baseball in the Houston Astros. During their win streak the Reds have outscored their opponents by a 30-15 clip, they have also batted .290 during that stretch - all without slugger Joey Votto. Meanwhile, as hot as the Reds are, the Astros are as cold. Houston has lost eight in a row, being outscored by a 62-24 margin and their pitching staff has a 8.37 ERA. Homer Baily will keep that streak going tonight for the Reds with his 9-6 record and 3.74 ERA. He's won his last three starts with a 1.59 ERA. Meanwhile, Houston starter Bud Norris is 0-3 his last three starts with a 7.27 ERA. I don't usually like laying this kind of price on the road, but this is easy money.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas City +224 over L.A. ANGELS

3:35 PM EST. We get a hugely inflated line here because Jared Weaver has an incredible 7-0 record at home with a miniscule 0.67 ERA in eight starts. Much like R.A. Dickey over on the senior circuit, Weaver’s numbers are in for a regression because the skills don’t support the surface stats.

Few starting pitchers have received more luck than Weaver. His 23% hit rate, 80% strand rate, and 5% HR/F all have helped to fuel his surface stats. Weaver is a fly-ball pitcher with a 37%/41% groundball/fly-ball split. Rarely will you see a fly-ball pitcher put up crooked numbers for an extended period of time and it could all come crashing down on him sooner rather than later.

The Royals are a dangerous team taking back a price like this with some strong hitting and one of baseball’s best pens. Their weakness is their starting pitching but Luke Hochevar has been coming on with each passing month. Last season, after the break, he reeled off seven quality starts in 10 attempts. He’s coming off a post-break gem against the Twins and he could do well against an Angels line-up that can be quite erratic. The Royals have taken three out of five games against the Angels this season and with regression very likely in Weaver’s future, this price is far too juicy to pass up on. The reward warrants the risk.

Marc Lawrence

San Diego vs San Francisco
Play: San Francisco

When the Giants send former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum to the mound against Jason Marquis and the Padres Wednesday afternoon in the finale of this three-game National League West division gathering at AT&T Park, Lincecum will do so knowing he is back in strong KW form with 20 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts. Tiny Tim is also 8-2 with a 1.88 ERA in his career home team starts in this series. Lincecum is also 7-2 with a 1.39 ERA in his last nine home team starts during July. With Marquis sporting a gaudy 6.04 ERA on the road this season, look for the Giants to come up big this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Scott Spreitzer

Tampa Bay -134

It's been a tough run at the plate for the Baltimore Orioles who have scored 4 runs or less in 12 of their last 15 games. Turning things around against David Price is not likely. Price has made six straight quality starts and he's been especially tough in his last five, allowing just 6 earned runs and 33 base runners in 35 1/3 IP, to go along with 38 strikeouts. Price owns outstanding career numbers in 10 starts against the Orioles, including a 2.81 ERA & 1.19 WHIP in five starts at Camden Yards! Baltimore hurler Miguel Gonzalez owns a nice ERA in six appearances, including three starts, but he awards too many free passes as evidenced by his 1.80 WHIP. Gonzalez has allowed 8 walks in 10 IP at Camden Yards. The Orioles are on a 1-5 slide at home. Meanwhile, the Rays are on an 8-1 run when Price starts on the road against teams with a winning record and they're on a 21-6 run when Price is listed as a road favorite. I'm laying the "price" with the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday.

Dr. Ed Meyer

St Louis -151

Three Cardinals' pitchers had a 8-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio in an 8-2 win yesterday that evened this four-game set at one apiece. St Louis is a terrific investment in this spot. The Cardinals are a staggering 66-24 since early 2004 at home after a win in which they allowed one or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series. That's 73% winners.

Note that the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in this spot this season, winning by an average of 5.1 runs per game with their starter producing a quality start every time. Wow. St Louis is plus 27.1 net games in this spot and the second-best team in the league is the Brewers at plus 17.1 net games.

Yes, the Dodgers have a better record than the Cardinals, but they are motivated by this fact. St Louis is a reliable 76-39 (66.1% winners) at home as a favorite vs a team that has a better record, producing 20.8 net games of profit.

St Louis' starter, Kyle Lohse, has been very reliable in this spot, producing a 12-0 team record as a home favorite of more than 120 when facing a team that has averaged more than 6.7 strikeouts per game season-to-date - including 6-0 THIS season.

The Dodgers have shown NO ability to recover from a beatdown like they had yesterday. LA is 3-21 as a 135-plus dog when they are off a non-shutout loss by at least three runs.
Note that LA is 1-16 their last 17 in this spot.

Since the start of June, Kyle Lohse has produced NINE straight quality starts in which the Cardinals were 6-3. The three losses were by a lone run - two of which came in extra innings. Four runs should be plenty for the win here.

MTi's FORECAST: ST LOUIS 7 LA Dodgers 2

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Braves are the only team left in the National League East that has a chance to catch Washington as they trail the Nationals by 4.5 games. They snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory last night as they got their second straight solid pitching performance. The bats have been held in check the last few games but tonight presents an opportunity for them to bust out. Atlanta is 8-2 in its last 10 games following a win and it is 8-2 in its last 10 games as a road favorite between -110 and -150. It is now safe to say that the Marlins have packed it in for the season. They traded Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers which signals they are looking ahead to the future. The loss last night was Miami's sixth in its last seven games and going back further, it is 4-10 over its last 14 games. The home field edge has been pretty non-existent as the Marlins are right at .500 for the season and the offense is doing no favors, scoring three runs or fewer in seven straight games. They are 7-22 in their last 29 games against winning teams. Tommy Hanson gets the call today for Atlanta and his second half has started out disastrous. He has allowed 14 runs in two starts covering 9.1 innings and he is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed eight runs on eight hits and four walks in four innings at Washington. Still, he is 7-2 with a 3.94 ERA in 11 road starts with the Braves going 8-3 in those games. Expect a rebound here and going back further the Braves are 16-5 in Hanson's last 21 road starts. Ricky Nolasco has had a roller coaster of a season as he has a 4.55 ERA through 10 starts with just 10 of those resulting in quality outings. His numbers are nearly identical at home with a 4.58 ERA and only half of those starts have been quality performances. He has struggled throughout his career against the Braves, going 5-8 with a 4.94 ERA in 20 starts which includes allowing four runs ion four innings in his only start against them this year. Miami is 0-5 in his last five starts as a home underdog of less than +150.

Tony Stoffo

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: Washington Nationals

The Mets have crashed and burned since the All-Star break going an incredible 1-10, and things sure won't get any better today with Strasburg matching up with Hefner in this spot today. First off the road won't bother Strasburg here as he has a 6-2 record with a 2.64 ERA and 1.130 WHIP, and already has a quality start against the Mets this season throwing 6 scoreless innings against them while allowing just 2 hits. So you can see how the Mets bats will be silent again here. While the same can't be said for Jeremy Hefner who will be making his first start since June 6th. Hefner hasn't fared well in his limited starts this season allowing 13 runs and 22 hits in just 15+ innings pitched resulting in a 6.89 ERA and 1.468 WHIP. So you definitely see how the big price on the Nationals is the way to go in this early start here.

Bryan Power

Cincinnati vs. Houston
Pick: Cincinnati

I've cashed the Reds each of the last two days right in this space and might as well continue to back Cincinnati as there's no end in sight for just how hapless things have gotten in Houston. While the Reds have now won 13 of their last 15, including six straight, the Astros are having an absolutely horrible July as they've lost 18 of 20 games including eight in a row. Overall, Houston has lost 22 of its last 24 and a loss tonight would give them a second nine-game losing streak over that stretch!

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is going for a season-high seven game win streak. They have a great shot at getting there behind starter Homer Bailey, who has traditionally dominated the Astros. In his last five starts against them, Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA including a 2-0 mark (0.67 ERA) here at Minute Maid Park. He's also won four straight starts overall (1.76 ERA) coming into tonight.

Houston, who has the worst record in all of baseball, just dealt its best pitcher - Wandy Rodriguez - to Pittsburgh, so who knows how bad things will get? Tonight's starter Bud Norris has lost seven straight starts and has a 7.23 ERA in four career starts vs. the Reds. I'll back Cincinnati as a "free play" for the 3rd consecutive day.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Pittsburgh/ Chicago Under 7.5: these teams have played 5 games here this year so far and 4 of those games have failed to put more than 6 runs on the board. Pittsburgh has been hit with good pitching in this series and has been held to 1 total run the last 2 games and they will face another tough starter tonight. Ryan Dempster was hit around a bit in his last start at St Louis. But most of the damage was done in the first inning, where he allowed 3 runs. He allowed just 1 run more in the next 5 innings. Still those are the only runs he has allowed in his last 6 starts and he comes in with a 1.52 ERA and an 0.92 WHIP on the road this year. He has also shined in day start with a 1.54 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP. Kevin Correia had a very rough time pitching at home last year, but he seems to have shaken that as he comes in with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP at PNC this year. He also has pitched very good in day games with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Kevin's day starts have averaged just 6.2 rpg, while Ryan's day starts have averaged just 6.5 rpg. Neither offense is hitting all that well and vs a couple of solid starters in a park that yields just 6.3 rpg I will look for this one to stay Under the total.

LA ANGELS -1.5 (-115) over Kansas City: Usually when a pitcher is as dominant as Jered Weaver has been there offense seems to take nights off and that pitcher will not get allot of easy wins. That is not the case with the Angels and Weaver. Jered is a sparkling 7-0 at home with an 0.67 ERA and an 0.61 WHIP. Now the Offense of the Angels has really made it easier on him as they have averaged 6.3 rpg in his home starts and they have outscored their opponents by 4.8 rpg in those games, with all but 1 of his 8 team wins coming by 3 runs or more. Overall the Angels have 14 wins in his 17 starts and have won 13 of those by 2 runs or more. Jered has been a favorite of 185 or higher 3 times this year at home and have shutout all three opponents, including his first start of the year vs these same Royals. Luke Hochevar had a rough start to his year, but he is pitching better of late and has a 5-4 mark and a 4.22 ERA on the road this year, but he has not pitched well at all in day games this year, where he is 1-4 with an 8.68 ERA. Luke did beat the Halos here earlier in the year, but in his previous 4 starts vs them the Royals are 0-4 and lost all 4 by 2 runs or more with Luke having an 8.02 ERA over that stretch. The Angels are 5-0 in Jered's last 5 starts vs the Royals, with Jered having an 0.50 ERA in those starts. LA Lost a golden opportunity to pick up a game on the Rangers last night, so I expect them to be fully focused behind their ace today and thoroughly rout the Royals.

POWER ANGLE PLAY (WON LAST 4)

ST LOUIS -150 over LA Dodgers: Google News Play St Louis won last night's game in easy fashion and that broke an 8 game losing streak for them in this series. I expect them to get 2 in a row tonight. The Cards started out the second half 1-5, but all 6 games were on the road and on this home stand they have gone 4-1 so far and have outscored their opponents by a 34-8 count. Last night the Cards tagged Clayton Kershaw for 8 runs in 5.2 innings of work and this offense that is very good at home (5.12 rpg) should be able to have success vs Aaron Harang in this one. Aaron has done well for LA this year with a 7-5 mark and a 3.46 ERA, but he has never pitched well in this city. In 12 career starts in St Louis, Aaron is 3-7 with a 4.74 ERA, while he is 0-4 in his teams starts with a 4.68 ERA in his last 4 trips here. Kyle Lohse has been rolling right along as he has allowed more than 2 ER's just 1 in his last 9 starts, posting a 2.02 ERA over that stretch. Kyle is 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA at home this year, including a 3-0 mark with a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts here. The Reds keep winning and so must the Cards if they hope to take the division crown this year. They are a much better team at home and have the better offense with the better starter on the mound. Look for St Louis to make it 2 in a row of LA tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2005 the Dodgers are 2-20 as a 140+ road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had 3 times as many hits as runs.

POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (6-1 L7) (15-9 +3.31 UNITS)

Since 2009 Houston is 7-33 as a 140+ dog if they are off a loss as a dog in which they drew at most 1 one walk. Play on Cincinnati -147 over Houston

Since 2009 the UNDER is 24-3 in a Seatlle game if their previous game went under by 1 run. All 24 of the Unders put up 7 runs or less. Play on the Under 8 in the Seattle/ Yankees game.

Jimmy Boyd

Tampa Bay Rays -126

The Rays have the edge tonight with ace David Price stepping to the mound. The left-hander is 13-4 this season with a 2.64 ERA in 19 starts, including 6-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 9 road starts. He enters in top form at 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.

Price has also enjoyed plenty of success versus the Orioles. He's 5-2 (7-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.58 in 10 career starts against them. The Rays are 4-1 all-time in his starts at Baltimore.

In addition, the Rays are 5-1 in Price's last 6 starts, 8-1 in his last 9 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 21-6 in his last 27 starts as a road favorite. Take Tampa Bay.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -132

The Detroit Tigers are rolling right now. They have won 13 of their last 16 games overall to climb into first place in the AL Central division. After dropping Game 1 of this series to Cleveland, I have the Tigers bouncing back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.

Max Scherzer has really been coming on strong of late for Detroit. He's 4-1 with a 2.80 ERA in his last seven starts, and 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA over his last four. Scherzer is a strikeout machine, recording 134 K's over 109 1/3 innings in 2012.

Derek Lowe got off to a decent start for Cleveland, but the veteran has shown signs of being washed up over the last couple months. The right-hander is 2-6 with an 8.31 ERA in his last last 10 starts to drop to 8-8 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.626 WHIP on the season.

The Tigers are 42-19 in their last 61 games following a loss. Detroit is 5-0 in its last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 0-5 in Lowe's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Tigers Wednesday.