Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 28,2010

Steve Merril
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Athletics vs. Rangers
Play: Under
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The Rangers are winning with good pitching as of late; they've gone Under the total in 9 of their last 12 games. They continue their series with the A's on Wednesday night as Colby Lewis gets the start for Texas. He's 9-6 with a 3.52 ERA and 12 Unders in his 19 starts this season. The righty is 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight outings at home. In two starts against Oakland this season, Lewis has given up six runs and 11 hits in 13 innings of work. Cliff Pennington (1-7), Adam Rosales (1-6), Daric Barton (1-5), Rajai Davis (0-5), and Landon Powell (0-4) all struggle with Lewis. Oakland is averaging 4.1 runs per game away from home. Lewis is backed by a Texas bullpen that has an ERA below 3.50 as a unit at home. Trevor Cahill has been outstanding for Oakland. He's 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 11 Unders in his 17 starts this season. The righty has given up just nine runs and 14 hits in his last 20.7 innings of work. Ironically, Cahill has opposed Lewis twice already this season. In those two outings, he has given up only three runs and nine hits in 10.7 innings of work. David Murphy (4-16), Elvis Andrus (3-13), Ian Kinsler (1-11), Vlad Guerrero (2-10), Julio Borbon (2-10), Josh Hamilton (2-9), Nelson Cruz (0-7), Bengie Molina (0-6), and Taylor Teagarden (0-4) all have poor numbers against Cahill. Texas has scored just 16 runs in their last six games. These two teams have gone Under the total in 13 of their last 20 games in Texas, and we expect another low-scoring game between the A’s and Rangers tonight.

Cajun Sports
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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers face the A’s in Game Two of their three-game set on Wednesday night with the first pitch set for 8:05PM Eastern Time. The A’s will send Trevor Cahill to the bump having pitched well this season triggers a league-wide system that tells us to Play On MLB (AL) home teams in this price range who average 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game facing a starter whose ERA is less than or equal to 4.20, with a starter who gives up 5.5 hits or less per start. This system has gone 45-9 the last 5 seasons and a very profitable 8-1 this year. Texas will send Colby Lewis to the mound with his 5-1 home record and ERA of 3.40 in those games. Lewis has found success against the A’s posting a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 4.05. Lewis is 14-2 in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season since 1997. The Rangers are 16-4 versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons. Combined with solid situational support we will lay the chalk with the host as they capture a victory on Wednesday night in Texas.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Texas Rangers 6 Oakland A’s 3

Rob Vinciletti
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Marlins vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
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This game fits a nice system that plays to the under for certain home favorites with a total of 8 or less, if they are off a home dog win, scored 5 or more runs and are taking on an opponent off a road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs. The Marlins are 2-14 to the under as a road dog in this range and only average 3.9 rpg vs left handers this year. The Giants have gone under in 11 of 16 as a home favorite in this range. Marlins Sanabia has an overall 2.11 era this year, whle J. Sanchez has a fine 3.00 home era this season. The Giants also have one of the best home bullpen era/s in the league at 2.19. Look for this game to be low scoring. Take the under tonight.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: New York Yankees
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We're coming off a very easy "free play" winner with the Twins last night, and we'll look to keep the momentum rolling as the New York Yankees continue their road trip against the Cleveland Indians.

Coming off a lack-lustre 4-1 loss last night, I believe the Yanks will do just enough in tonight's contest to earn AJ Burnett back-to-back victories:
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Burnett is coming back after injury and was effective in five innings of work on Friday against Kansas City before his start was cut short due to rain; he gave up just four hits with one walk with three K's and had a 4-0 lead when he exited.

I believe that Burnett, who is 8-8 on the year with a 4.77 ERA, will have another strong outing in this favorable matchup; also keep in mind that the Yanks are 41-21 (+8.8 units) vs. right-handed starters and 29-19 (+4 units) on the road this season.
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In the other dugout: Fausto Carmona heads to the hill for the home side; Carmona is coming off a victory over the Rays on Friday night, but I expect him to stumble here.

There aren't many negative things that can be said about Carmona; he's having a bounce back season after stinking it up last year and has won his last three starts.
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He's 10-7 so far, with a respectable 3.51 ERA; however, keep in mind that he's already 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA vs. New York this season; also remember that the Indians are 29-40 (-3.5 units) against right-handed starters; also just 25-41 (-4.9 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.
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Bottom line: When taking all of the above factors into consideration, you may want to consider a second look at the YANKEES in this situation.

BIG AL
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Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
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The arrival of lefthander Cliff Lee obviously helps a lot of players on the Texas Rangers club, but perhaps none moreso than righthanded starter Colby Lewis. Lewis - who had been in Japan for two years prior to returning to the Rangers in 2010 - along with young Tommy Hunter had become the de-facto aces of this staff with the trade of Kevin Millwood and the complete meltdown of Scott Feldman, so bringing in a guy like a Cy Young Award-winning veteran can't help but take an enormous amount of pressure off of both Lewis and Hunter. This will be Lewis' third start since the club acquired Lee for first baseman Justin Smoak and he continues to be a strikeout machine, fanning 117 - while issuing just 41 walks - in over 122 innings this season. He's done his best work by far at home in Arlington, where he's lost just one start, with five wins while registering a very strong 3.40 ERA. He should be extra-pumped tonight to get his first win of the season against the A's, who oddly he was not able to beat when he threw back-to-back quality starts against them in early May. He may also want to show folks that it was he, and not A's starter Trevor Cahill, who was worthy of a spot on the 2010 AL All Star Roster. Texas is 11-3 in Lewis' last 14 home starts. Take the Rangers.

JIM FEIST
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FLORIDA MARLINS / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
PLAY: FLORIDA MARLINS
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The Florida Marlins finally got above .500, something they have been striving to achieve for a while. The Marlins are still 7 1/2 back of Atlants in the NL East, but that's still close enough to keep their players and not look to ship someone off during this final week before the trade deadline. The Marlins have used solid pitching to win eight of their last 10 games. The Marlins face Jonathon Sanchez tonight. Sanchez is a lefty and that's worked out well for Florida this season. The Marlins have a 2nd best 18-11 mark against southpaws. Florida will start Alex Sanabia tonight. Sanabia is 1-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six games. In his six games, Sanabia has allowed one run or less in five contests. Meanwhile Sanchez brings a 7-6 record and 3.35 ERA into tonight's contest. Sanchez has been a bit inconsistent, pitching a very good game and then struggling. The biggest problem for Sanchez, and what usually equals his early exists, is his walks. Sanchez is 2nd in the NL in walks this year (59). I think it's worth a shot here Wednesday on the fish as a nice underdog. You have a team that wins against lefties and you have a Giants' pitcher that can have bad control problems. I'll take the nice dog price with Florida on Wednesday.

EZWINNERS
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Minnesota Twins -$130
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The Twins starting pitcher Brian Duensing who took the rotation spot of Nick Blackburn was pretty solid in his first start of the season. Duensing received a no decision in Friday's 3-2 loss to the Orioles but allowed just one run on four hits in five innings. Duensing allowed the one run in the first inning on three singles, but held the Orioles to just one hit over the next four innings. Duensing threw 66 pitches and could have earned the win as the Twins took a 2-1 lead in the top of the sixth inning. However, the Orioles retook the lead in the bottom of the inning, which left Duensing in line for the no decision. I look for another solid start from Duensing today against the struggling Royals. Kansas City's starting pitcher Brian Bannister has been getting knocked around. In his last three starts Bannister is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.41 and has issued ten walks. Minnesota is hot and are currently riding a four game winning streak. I look for their hot play to continue today. Play on the Twins.

Carlo Campanella
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Atlanta vs. Washington
Play Atlanta
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Atlanta finds themselves in the road Favorite role on Wednesday as they play at Washington. The Braves start ace right hander, Time Hudson on the mound, who's 10-5 with a 2.47 ERA this season. Hudson is even more impressive when facing this Washington squad, as he owns a 9-1 record (with 5 No Decisions) with a 1.51 ERA against them during his career and has impressively held them to 1 Earned Run or less in an incredible 11 of 15 games! In his last trip to the mound against them back on June 28 he went 7 innings without allowing an Earned Run and recording 6 Strikeouts during a 5-0 victory.

JR O'Donnell
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CWS (-160) vs SEA
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Chi White Sox -160 is about as high as we go, they are the sharp play on team right now and the 1st place, that's right 1st place 55-44 Sox are just pounding the ball, Seattle can't wait to get out of the Windy city and the M's are toast.The Sox are going with M Buehrle 9-8 overall & 3.96 ERA and he will keep the pressure on the Mariners tonight.The Sox are smooth winners of nine straight and 16 of its last 17 @ home. Let's keep rolling as Mariner's have 18 l's in the last 24 games.M's Vagas has had some sucess but the Chi Sox are just way way too hot right now!!

Tony George
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Minnesota -130
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The Twins won 11-2 last night after a 19-1 ass beating on Monday and my Game of the Month 2 star was on the Twins last night as I have rode them in both games in this series. Bannister for KC will get lit up again this afternoon. KCs bullpen is disarray and they cannot hit a softball right now. The Twins are DOMINATING the Royals, 51-19 combined scoring in the last 5 games in this series, just UNREAL this number is under -150 today. KC is a serious tailspin and are not playing well or are even focused.

Matt Fargo
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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We won with the Dodgers in this spot last night and we will come right back with them again tonight. They got the victory last night behind another great pitching performance and that moved them to within five games of San Diego in the National League West. As mentioned yesterday, this series is huge for Los Angeles and its pitching remains the key. The Dodgers have shut out the opposition in four of the last six games and they want to continue that trend. The loss put San Diego 10 games over .500 at home which is still extremely solid but the recent string of wins have come against teams with losing records as it is now 2-5 over its last seven home games against teams with a wining record. It is also 3-7 in its last 10 games overall against winning teams. The offense has been up and down and the season batting average of .251 is sixth worst in all of baseball. As mentioned, the Dodgers pitching has been outstanding of late and I once again see it continuing tonight. Hiroki Kuroda has been solid all season long with a 3.48 ERA and after a rough ending to the first half, he has picked it up once again in his starts after the All-Star break. He has allowed just one run in two starts covering 14 innings to go along with a 13:2 K:BB ratio. He has a 3.68 ERA in his last four starts against the Padres, three of which resulted in Dodgers victories. San Diego counters with Clayton Richard, who is also having a great season but he looks to be fading. Richard came into July with a 2.74 ERA, but he's 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts this month and even though his last was the best, he is clearly not the same right now. The Dodgers fall into a great contrarian run as well as they are 25-8 in their last 33 games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span. They are also 22-8 in their last 30 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. As for the pitchers, Los Angeles is 18-6 in Kuroda’s last 24 starts following a quality outing in his last game while San Diego is 1-5 in Richard’s last six starts following a quality outing in his last game. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers

John Ryan
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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5* graded play on Washington as they host Atlanta set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that Washington will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 134-95 making 57.7 units since 1997. The average play has been a +114 dog. Play against NL road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. Braves are now under immense pressure from the 2-time defending NL Champion Phillies and it is beginning to show on the field. Braves now face a daunting task as they are an imperfect 0-9 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season; 11-22 (-19.7 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.Washington is a solid 17-4 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Hernandez is a solid 7-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. Riggelman is a solid 11-2 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games. Hernandez has averaged 6.6 IP per start with an impressive 3.12 ERA. Over his last 3 starts he is equally strong posting a 3.15 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. He has pitched a minimum of 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts and the bullpen is strong. Take Washington.

Sac Lawson

ANA (-107) vs BOS
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There is no doubt that the Angels are struggling a bit right now, and they have another series with Texas right around the corner. Usually I would argue that this game today is a possible lookahead spot to that next series with their division rival, Rangers. However, they have a day off tomorrow, and to me that makes all the difference in the world. The Angels are struggling to win games right now, and for that reason, this game holds a great deal of importance. They simply cannot allow themselves to be swept at home by the Sox.
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Luckily for them, they send Pineiro to the mound this afternoon, and this is a guy that has been an absolute rock at home. He's 7-2 at home this season, and showing no signs of slowing down. I expect him to pitch well today.
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On the other side, Beckett is coming off a long long stint on the DL, and although his first start was OK five days ago, I still have little faith in his stuff so shortly after such a long layoff. Beckett is just 1-3 in his last 6 starts against the Angels, and as a guy that is a strikeout pitcher and also on close watch, I think it's safe to assume that regardless of his quality today, he probably won't go deep into this game. That Red Sox bullpen has been anything but reliable on the road this season, so expect that to play a roll.
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At the end of the day, the Angels at home are always a winning proposition, especially at such a short line. It just so happens we're lucky enough to take advantage of the public perception behind the Beckett name, and at the same time take advantage of a home starter that continues to produce. Let's get it!

Denver Money
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CHC (-143) vs HOU
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The Cubs looked good early until they gave up the grand slam to Lance Berkman now today they will look to bounce back and take the series from the Astros. The Cubs are 16-13 in game 3 of a series this season. The bats of Chicago were kept in check last night, but they should wake up again today when they face off against Bud Norris who is 2-7 on the year with 6.08 ERA. Astros are 0-5 in Norris' last 5 starts with 4 days off and 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. I will back the Cubs today for my early 2* favorite.