Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -125
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Off yesterday's shutout loss, I expect the Braves to bounce back strong in Washington tonight. Hernandez has been solid at home for the Nats all season, but he doesn't have a good track record against Atlanta. Dating back to 1997, Hernandez is just 8-15 (10-20 on the money line) when starting against the Braves with an ERA of 4.97. And recently, the Nationals are just 2-6 in Hernandez's last 8 home starts versus the Braves. Meanwhile, Hudson has owned the Nats, going 9-1 (10-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.51 in his career. The Braves are 8-3 in Hudson's last 11 starts versus the Nationals. The Braves have been a strong favorite. In fact, they are 41-15 in their last 56 games as a favorite and 20-6 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 8-1 in Hudson's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Lastly, the Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 games following a loss. We'll take Atlanta in this bounce back spot tonight.
Tom Freese
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Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Florida Marlins
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Florida starter Alex Sanabia has allowed 1 run in 3 starts this year all of which were Florida wins. The Marlins are 7-0 off a loss and they are 8-3 their last 11 games overall. The Fish are 5-1 in game 3 of a series and they are 7-1 when the total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Marlins are 5-2 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters. San Francisco starter Jonathan Sanchez has allowed 8 runs in his last 15.2 innings of work. The Giants are 1-5 when Sanchez pitches game 3 of a series. San Francisco is 2-5 their last 7 games vs. righty starters and they are 3-7 their last 10 Wednesday games.
Bud Booker
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Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs looked good early until they gave up the grand slam to Lance Berkman now today they will look to bounce back and take the series from the Astros. The Cubs are 16-13 in game 3 of a series this season. The bats of Chicago were kept in check last night, but they should wake up again today when they face off against Bud Norris who is 2-7 on the year with 6.08 ERA. Astros are 0-5 in Norris' last 5 starts with 4 days off and 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. I will back the Cubs today.
Mr Vegas
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Marlins at Giants
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The Florida Marlins finally got above .500, something they have been striving to achieve for a while. The Marlins are still 7 1/2 back of Atlants in the NL East, but that's still close enough to keep their players and not look to ship someone off during this final week before the trade deadline. The Marlins have used solid pitching to win eight of their last 10 games. The Marlins face Jonathon Sanchez tonight. Sanchez is a lefty and that's worked out well for Florida this season. The Marlins have a 2nd best 18-11 mark against southpaws. Florida will start Alex Sanabia tonight. Sanabia is 1-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six games. In his six games, Sanabia has allowed one run or less in five contests. Meanwhile Sanchez brings a 7-6 record and 3.35 ERA into tonight's contest. Sanchez has been a bit inconsistent, pitching a very good game and then struggling. The biggest problem for Sanchez, and what usually equals his early exists, is his walks. Sanchez is 2nd in the NL in walks this year (59). I think it's worth a shot here Wednesday on the fish as a nice underdog. You have a team that wins against lefties and you have a Giants' pitcher that can have bad control problems. I'll take the nice dog price with Florida on Wednesday.
SPORTS WAGERS
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St. Louis +1.09 over NY METS
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Baseball is a funny game. Here’s a Mets squad that came into last night’s game batting a combined .196 over its last 12 games. Shut out four times during a 2-9 road trip, the Mets came home and ended Adam Wainwright’s career-best scoreless streak at 26 innings and there’s not a crystal ball in the world that could’ve predicted that. Now the Mets will face a guy that threw a seven-inning, one hitter against them earlier in the year and it was no fluke. Jaime Garcia has terrific stuff and he’s only getting better. He has an off the charts GB/FB ratio of 53%/26%. Garcia has four great pitches and he isn’t afraid to use any of them in any count. When a skilled pitcher is working with the best in the business, Dave Duncan, magic happens and we’ve seen it from Garcia all season long. Garcia’s walk totals are down in July (6 BB – 20 K’s) and over his last four starts he’s allowed just five runs total. That includes games in Philly and Colorado. On the road this season in 10 starts, Garcia has an ERA of 2.96 and a BAA of .248. Johan Santana still looks like an ace on the surface (2.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), but that's where the similarities end. His base skills resemble those of a soft tosser more than a staff anchor. Santana is on a huge roll with five impressive games in a row in which he’s allowed three runs in all five games. However, prior to that he allowed four runs or more in four straight and his under the surface stats say that is more likely to occur again than his good run. You see, Santana’s GB% is just 33% and that’s a disturbing number. A 4% HR/flyball has carried his surface stats more than anything else. A low BPV (for explanation of BPV see the bottom of this page) of just 44 confirms that Santana’s skills are declining badly. Play: St. Louis +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
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Pittsburgh +2.14 over COLORADO
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Back-to-back solo shots in the fifth were the only runs the Rockies were able to muster last night against Zach Duke. In total they had six hits. The Rocks have now lost seven in a row and over that stretch that includes four game in Philly and one at home, they’re batting a combined .212. Aaron Cook is a huge risk at –2.25, even against the Pirates. Over his last three starts, Cook has allowed 25 hits in 16.1 innings to go along with a 5.51 ERA and a WHIP of 1.84. You might recall last season that foot and shoulder problems ended his season short and now he’s thrown 111 innings and isn’t looking sharp. In four July starts, Cook has allowed 32 hits in 22 frames for a BAA of .337. He has 44 walks and just 51 K’s on the year and you’re really rolling the dice when you lay big juice with this guy, as he can get lit up anytime. The Pirates are fourth in the majors in team BA since the break. Russ Ohlendorf is just 1-8 but that’s a misleading number. Take out one start over his last five in which he allowed four runs in 1.1 innings, Ohlendorf has allowed only three earned runs over the other four outings. That includes back-to-back shutouts over Philly and Oakland in a combined 13 frames. That’s not to say that Ohlendorf has turned the corner because his skill set is nothing to get excited about. However, he’s not the one laying –2.25 and his chances of success here are as good as Cook’s. When you consider the current state of the Rocks, the Pirates chances of winning are almost as good as the Rockies, thus creating a big overlay. The Rockies are an extremely frustrated team at the moment. Play: Pittsburgh +2.14 (Risking 2 units).
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Boston +1.00 over ANAHEIM
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The Red Sox are getting healthier by the day and in fact, five Red Sox have come off the DL in the last week. Josh Beckett is one of them and he says he feels great. You can’t put too much emphasis on his successful return last week when he five-hit the Mariners in Seattle in five innings but his 95 MPH fastball did look good and now that the first start back is out of the way, Beckett has a great chance to succeed again here. The Angels made both Clay Bucholtz and John Lackey look terrific when both were vulnerable. The Angels have dropped six of seven and scored just 17 runs over its last six games. The Red Sox beat Jeff Weaver and Dan Haren in the first two games of this series and things surely don’t get more difficult here against Joel Pineiro. Pineiro is having a terrific season but no way are we buying into his success. This is a guy with a career BAA of .273 and a career ERA of 4.38 and that’s after pitching in Seattle and St. Louis. Pineiro has allowed 12 runs over his last three starts covering 20 innings. His BAA against this year is still .270 and many of these Red Sox hitters are very familiar with him. The Red Sox are jacked up for the stretch run while the Angels are laboring badly. Play: Boston +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
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St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
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The New York Mets host the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:10 PM ET in the second game of the series. The Mets got the 8-2 win over the Cardinals last night and plan on doing the same tonight! On the mound for St. Louis, Garcia has been having some good starts. He has a 2.96 ERA and 1.409 WHIP when playing on the road. On the other side of tonight’s matchup, Santana is starting for the Mets. With a 0.82 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in his last three starts, Santana has been pitching excellent. The Mets have won seven out of the ten games that were played at New York and plan on making it number eight tonight! Play on the New York Mets
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Play on: New York Mets
Rocketman
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Boston Red Sox vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
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Boston is only 8-16 in day games this year. LA Angels are 86-40 the past 3 years in day games. Boston bullpen has a 5.18 ERA on the road this year. Josh Beckett has a 6.66 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 7.47 ERA his last 3 starts. Joel Pineiro is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels today!
Wunderdog
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Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8.5
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Travis Wood has made just five starts for the Reds this year but already owns a complete game shutout. He is pitching to a 2.76 ERA and has great stuff. Chris Narveson opened the season in the Brewers bullpen and has been up and down, good game bad game. He has been effective on four days rest and the Brewers are 8-2 to the UNDER when he is on four days rest, pitching in rotation. The Reds have been a big UNDER team on the road at 17-7-1 in their last 25, including 8-1- to the UNDER as a road favorite. They are also 33-16-2 to the UNDER in their last 51 on the road vs a lefthander. I'll play this one UNDER the total.
Steve Janus
Twins vs. Royals
Pick: Twins
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I have the Twins taking care of business and sweeping the Royals on Wednesday. The TWins send Brian Duensing to the mound, who will be making just his second start of the season, but he was pretty solid in his first start on the road giving up just 1 earned run. The Royals send Brian Bannister to the mound, and he hasn't been very good lately with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins are 32-15 against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons. Bet Minnesota!
Top Trends for Twins -130
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*MINNESOTA is 28-11 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
*MINNESOTA is 73-49 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
* KANSAS CITY is 9-23 against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.000 the last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.
Doug Upstone
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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
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Play On home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Texas, who average 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a good starting AL pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or less, after a combined score of four runs or less. Over the past 13 years this system is 39-7.
Freddy Wills
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago Cubs
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Randy Wells has been on fire and has a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts overall. He'll go up against Bud Norris who has a 1.42 WHIP and a 6.38 ERA in his last 3 overall starts. Wells has struggled on the road with a 2-4 record and 4.61 ERA, but has pitched much better as of late and will go for a rebound against the Astros as he gave up 6 ER in his only start against them earlier this year.
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In Well defense that start came when he was struggling. He's got a good history against the Astros which has 20.1 IP in three carer starts in 2009 giving up 0 ER. Cubs never faced Norris, but the 0-4 7.13 ERA and team home record of 1-6 when he starts is nothing to be scared of. Houston just 4.21 runs per 9 over last 10 games while the Cubs come in at .305 average and 5.70 runs per 9.
Lenny Del Genio
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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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The Dodgers beat the Padres last night 2-0 for their fifth win in six games. However, if you look at those wins you?ll see that the most runs they've scored in any of those wins was 3! How long can their pitching staff carry them Tonight, the Dodgers send out Kuroda who has provide LA with an 11-8 team start record this season but hes been a bit shaky on the road with a 3.73 ERA and 4-5 team start record. For the Padres, starter Richard has run into trouble of late with a 7.00 ERA. However, the last time he faced these Dodgers he went seven strong scoreless innings allowing only one hit. The Dodgers luck will run out tonight as the Padres put enough runs on the board to even this series at one game each. Play on the Padres.
Sam Martin
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Cardinals at Mets
Play: Under
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Great pitching matchup of Garcia vs. Santana tonight, and both of these pitchers come in with great form. Garcia has a 2.21 ERA on the season, while Santana has allowed only two runs in his last three starts (covering 22 innings). Neither offense has been lighting it up lately, with the Cardinals scoring a combined 11 runs in their last five games, and the Mets scoring just 15 combined runs in their last seven games prior to yesterday?s outburst. We think the total stays low tonight!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -140
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The Blue Jays have owned the Orioles. They have outscored Baltimore 65-23 while winning all 11 meetings this season. Baltimore has especially struggled north of the border, where it has lost 19 of its last 21 at Rogers Centre. Baltimore's chances aren't looking very good with Guthrie on the mound tonight. He hasn't won a road start since May 8, and he has lost his last 3 starts in Toronto. The Blue Jays plan to give Brad Mills just his third MLB start tonight. He has been solid for Triple-A Las Vegas this season, and should benefit from plenty of run support this evening. Plus, I like his chances against a Baltimore lineup only averaging 3.5 runs per game on the road. Compare that to the 5.1 runs per game Toronto is scoring at home. Take the Jays.
Dan Bebe
LOS (-102) vs SDP
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Going back to the well for another Free Play on the Dodgers, as, right now, this team is pitching like beasts.
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I could go into all the minutia, but the big reason behind this play is that the Dodgers just aren't allowing anyone to score. They've pitched 4 shutouts in the last 6 games, and since that insane Broxton/Mattingly/Umpire incident in the middle game with San Francisco on the 20th of July, the Dodgers pitchers decided they were going to show the League that it doesn't matter who takes the hill, nobody scores.
And what's even more remarkable is that this team is in a deep, disturbing offensive slump. The Dodgers have scored just 11 runs in the last 6 games, and they've won 5 of them! In those 5 games, opponents have scored, combined, a grand total of TWO runs. 2. You're probably going to win some games when your opposition is averaging 0.4 runs/game over a 5-game stretch.
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I also really like the starting pitcher match-up with a rolling Hiroki Kuroda going head-to-head with a somewhat-slumping Clayton Richard.
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You can see more info on these cats in my daily blog, but suffice it to say that Kuroda is coming off 2 starts where he's gone 14 innings and allowed 1 run, and Richard has allowed 19 runs in 4 July starts, and seems to be tailing off a bit in the hot months. Of course, that high mound and huge park in San Diego, compounded by the Dodgers offensive issues is probably going to lead to a "decent" start from Richard, but if he even gives up 2-3 runs, that would seem to be more than enough, lately, for the Dodgers.
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I will admit, and the reason this play isn't larger, I am concerned that Kuo is unavailable after going 2 innings last night, so the Dodgers are going to need 7 innings out of Kuroda for me to feel safe. Beyond that, I like the Dodgers starter far better, I like the Dodgers momentum and the ability to win in Petco (a perfect 4-0 so far this season), and I happen to think that the Dodgers are a better offensive team if they could get healthy and flex a little muscle.