Jack Jones
New York Mets -130
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Johan Santana has owned teams in the month of July. The lefty is now 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA this month and I expect another superb start out of Santana tonight against the Cardinals. Santana has pitched 18 consecutive scoreless innings at Citi Field, and for the season he's 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 home starts. Throw in the fact that the lefty is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 4 career starts vs. St. Louis, and you can see why the Mets are certainly worth of a free play Wednesday.
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It has been like night and day home and away for New York. The Mets are 51-49 this season, but they have one of the best home records in the league at 31-16. At Citi Field they are scoring 4.6 RPG and allowing 3.0 RPG this season for an average win of 1.6 RPG. That's some impressive stuff. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are just 21-29 on the road, scoring 4.0 RPG and allowing home teams to hit .275 while scoring 4.2 RPG. New York is a perfect 8-0 in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season. The Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. THe Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take New York Wednesday.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -152
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The Giants are 17-5 in their last 22 overall, 6-1 in Sanchez's last 7 starts as a favorite and 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Plus, the Marlins have lost 4 of the last 5 in this matchup, and 5 of the last 7 in San Francisco. Take the Giants at home tonight as they record their 6th straight series win.
Craig Trapp
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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PHI has won 6 in a row and have really been playing like we all thought they would all year. Good news for Halladay is they are scoring runs which he has not recieved in many of his starts. Halladay is 3-0 in his last four starts at home while allowing one run in 33 innings, none in the last 25. The right-hander hasn't faced the Diamondbacks (37-63) since 2004, but he is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against them. He will be opposed by Jackson who has been a play against since throwing the no hitter. Over that stretch he has a 6.85 ERA in four starts since throwing a no-hitter at Tampa Bay end of June. Hitting now is a big advantage for PHI as they are hitting up and down lineup verse an ARI team that leads the majors in strikeouts and has one of the worst batting averages. Easy win here.
Info Plays
3* on Texas Rangers -151
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Reasons the Rangers win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TEXAS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. This is a 45-9 ML System hitting 83.3% over the last 5 seasons. This system is a superb 8-1 this season. Bet the Rangers at home.