SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (62-38) at St. Louis (55-48)
The Dodgers, who continue to own baseball’s best record, send out red-hot left-hander Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.96 ERA) for the third game of a four-game set at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals and Joel Pineiro (9-9, 2.95).
St. Louis continued its domination of the Dodgers with a 10-0 rout on Tuesday, which followed Monday’s 6-1 victory. The Cardinals are now 43-20 in the last 63 meetings with Los Angeles and 26-8 in the last 34 at Busch Stadium. Tony LaRussa’s squad is on additional positive surges of 6-1 at home, 6-1 against the N.L. West and 17-4 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
L.A. has now lost three in a row and four of its last five. On the bright side, it is still 5-2 in its last seven against the N.L. Central and 10-6 in its last 16 against righty starters.
The Dodgers are 7-1 in Kershaw’s last eight starts, with the lone defeat coming last Friday at home against Florida. In that contest, Kershaw allowed three runs (two earned) on nine hits and three walks in six innings of a 6-3 setback. The southpaw had previously surrendered a total of three earned runs over a seven-start stretch that covered 42 2/3 innings (0.63 ERA), and he wasn’t scored on in five of those contests.
Kershaw is 5-3 with a 4.41 ERA in nine road starts this season, and he’s 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis. L.A. has won five straight road games behind Kershaw and is on further runs behind the lefty of 7-1 against N.L. Central foes and 5-1 against winning teams.
The Cardinals have won four in a row and five of six backing Pineiro, including an 8-1 rout at Philadelphia last Friday, in which the righty threw six shutout innings of four-hit ball, walking just one. Pineiro is 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA over his last six starts, including a pair of complete games.
Pineiro is 4-4 with a 2.40 ERA in eight home starts this season, and he’s won both of his two career starts against Los Angeles, despite a 4.72 ERA. His current 4-1 upswing followed a stretch in which he took the loss in five consecutive starts and eight out of nine.
The Dodgers are on “over” runs of 5-2-1 overall, 10-3 on the road and 12-6 against right-handed starters. On the flip side, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 9-4 overall, 20-9 at home (6-1 in their last seven) and 6-1 against the N.L. West, and the total has stayed low in five of Pineiro’s last six starts, including the last three in a row.
Finally, the under has been the play in seven of the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (61-39) at Tampa Bay (55-46)
Right-hander Joba Chamberlain (6-2, 3.86 ERA) leads the torrid Yankees into the finale of a three-game set against the A.L. East rival Rays, who will counter with fellow righty Matt Garza (7-7, 3.68) at Tropicana Field.
After getting drubbed 11-4 in Monday’s opener, Tampa Bay came back and evened this series with Tuesday’s 6-2 victory. The Rays are on a lengthy 89-36 streak at home dating to last season and are on further upticks of 6-2 in division play and 20-8 at the Trop against teams with a winning road record.
The Yankees have still won 10 of their last 12 and are on additional surges of 46-22 overall, 9-4 on the road, 7-2 in division play and 16-6 against winning teams.
These rivals have now split 10 meetings this season, but the visitor has won six of the last nine. Also, New York has won four in a row against Garza.
The Yankees are 11-3 in Chamberlain’s last 14 starts, including an 8-3 home rout of Oakland last Friday when the 23-year-old yielded just one run on two hits and three walks over seven innings, striking out six. Chamberlain hasn’t been dealt a loss on the road this year, going 4-0 with a 3.26 ERA in eight outings, though New York is only 4-4 in those contests.
Chamberlain has just one start against Tampa in his eight appearances (0-0, 1.88 ERA), and that was a 4-3 home win on June 7 in which he allowed all three runs on five hits and a walk in six innings, getting a no-decision. New York is 5-1 in Chamberlain’s last six outings overall, but the Yanks are 1-4 behind the righty on the road against opponents with a winning record.
The Rays are 4-2 in Garza’s last six trips to the mound, including 2-0 in the last two. On Friday at Toronto, the 25-year-old pitched a complete-game five-hitter, matching Roy Halladay, who also went nine innings, and Tampa scored twice in the 10th for a 4-2 victory. Tampa Bay is 8-3 in Garza’s last 11 division starts and 6-2 in his last eight home outings.
Garza is 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 home outings this year, and he’s 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts) against New York. He was opposite Chamberlain in the June 7 contest, allowing one run on four hits and two walks in five innings but got a no-decision in the Rays’ loss.
The under for New York is on runs of 8-3-1 overall and 9-4-1 against A.L. East foes, but otherwise the team is on “over” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 6-3 on artificial turf and 5-1 with Chamberlain on the mound. For Tampa, the under is on stretches of 36-17-1 overall, 10-3 in division play, 24-7-1 against righty starters, 13-3-1 behind Garza and 5-0 with Garza facing a winning team.
Finally the over has hit in six of the last eight Yanks-Rays clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Matt Fargo
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Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers coasted again on Tuesday as they have now won three straight games and eight of their last nine games. That lone loss came on the road so they have won six straight games at home to improve to 34-19 at Rangers Ballpark on the season and those 34 victories are tied for second for the most home wins in all of baseball. Looking back further Texas has won 11 of its last 13 games at home. The Tigers continue to struggle on the road as they have lost seven straight and going back to June 13th, they are 4-15 in their last 19 road games so making them the favorite is not the right call here despite Justin Verlander being on the mound. He is having a great season following a disappointing 2008 campaign as he has posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 21 starts. He has tossed four straight quality outings including one at Yankee Stadium but for the most part, he has struggled away from home. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 12 starts with Detroit going just 5-7 in those games. This compares to an 8-1 record in his nine home starts. In nine daytime starts, Verlander has a 1.74 ERA but in 12 starts after the sun sets, he has a 4.24 ERA. He faces off against Scott Feldman who is still getting no respect from the linesmakers. He has a 3.59 ERA on the season but it is even better since coming into the rotation. In his 17 starts alone, he has a 3.04 ERA and that includes 12 quality starts and a run of six in a row. Texas has won five of those last six starts. The Tigers are 16-40 in their last 56 road games against a team with a winning record and that includes a 0-4 record in Verlander’s last four. The Rangers are 23-9 in their last 32 home games against a team with a losing road record and they are 5-0 in Feldman’s last five starts as an underdog.
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3* Texas Rangers
Frank Jordan
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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Kansas City and Baltimore played 11 innings on Tuesday and each team used 5 total pitchers. Using 4 relievers to pitch 5 innings like each team did it takes a little out of you for the next game. In this game each team needs length from their starting pitchers. Kansas City is turning to their top man Zack Greinke who is 10-6 with an era a shade over 2 and is averaging 7 innings per start. Baltimore on the other hand is sending Chris Tillman to the mound who is a 21 year old rookie making his major league debut. This is a no brainer go with the proven pitcher who will give much needed relief to the bullpen. Play Kansas City
Big Al
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Cleveland Indians vs. LAA Angels
Play: Over 9.5
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Whatever the hitters on the Indians have been drinking on the road lately, as long as it's not illegal, the team must feel like there's hopefully more from wherever it came from. In every game of this current road trip except the first one, the Tribe has scored at least five runs and they've scored a total of 58 runs in the first eight games heading into this ninth, and final game of their road trek. Today's starter for Cleveland, righthander Aaron Laffey must be feeling pretty good as he just came off of his best start of the season and he's no doubt noticed how many runs his offense has been scoring lately. Still, heading into Southern Cal to play arguably the best team in the American League can be a daunting task, and it's not like Laffey has a history of success against this team as in two career starts he is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. That includes the final game of the 2008 season, also played in Anaheim, where Laffey's opposing pitcher was the same as it is this afternoon: veteran righthander John Lackey. The balls were flying everywhere in that one, as L.A. finally prevailed by a 14-11 margin. Lackey's actually been worse at home this season than on the road, and while it's unlikely these two teams will score 25 runs this afternoon, considering the over is 19-5-1 in the Angels last 25 home games, it could get a little crazy. Take the 'over.'
Craig Trapp
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Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Under 8.5
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DET and TEX have both been two of the best under teeams on the season. Detroit has gone Under is 21-7 last 28 road games and Texas is under 8 of last 10 games! Texas has been winning games but not by scoring a ton of runs and today they will struggle against ace Verlander for DET. Verlander has only given up 2 runs in last 23 runs. Good thing for TEX is they have a very tough piture Feldman who has only given up 6 runs in last 4 starts in over 26 innings. Detroit has struggled scoring runs lately only scoring over 3 runs in last 10 games. Not sure if this one gets above 4 runs between these teams. UNDER 8.5 is the play!
Red Dog Sports
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Detroit at Texas
Play: Under 8.5
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The Tigers have 21 unders and 7 overs in their last 28 on the road. Texas has 45 unders, 15 overs and 2 pushes in their last 62 games. These two pitchers (Verlander/Feldman) have combined for 14 overs and 24 unders. Play under the total on Wednesday!
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
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Play: Texas over Detroit
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RHP Feldman is coming off a nice outing in Kansas City winning as a road favorite. Here the climate changes in the humidity of Texas and the opposition being Mark Verlander (11-5, 3.12) who has been off the charts this baseball season. At home the righty is 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA, however, this situation is not in Detroit. With the Rangers 4-1 versus Texas in Arlington and one of the best hitting teams in baseball, I’ll go with Michael Young and company.
Marc Lawrence
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Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers send staff ace Justin Verlander to the hill against Scott Feldman and the Rangers at The Ballpark in Arlington in the finale of this three-games series tonight. Verlander enters tonight's contest knowing he is 6-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his career team starts against Texas, including 2-0 with an 0.00 ERA in this park. With Feldman having lost 13 of his last 19 team starts, look for Verlander to improve to 14-6 in his last 20 team starts in July here this evening.
Bob Harvey
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Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Play: Under 8.5
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The Detroit Tigers are on the verge of getting swept by the Rangers. Tonight theyll look to Justin Verlander to prevent that from happening.
The Tigers have struggled offensively scoring just six runs in their last three games, all losses. Thats why the motowners will need another stellar effort from their ace Verlander is 11-5 on the year with a 3.12 ERA and a victory tonight would tie him with Bostons Josh Beckett for the league lead in wins. If his last three starts are any indication, then hes a good bet to get his 12th victory tonight. Verlander is 2-1 with a 0.78 ERA over that stretch including his third complete game of the season. The Tigers have won both of Verlanders starts against the Rangers this season. He is 1-0 in those outings with a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings pitched, improving to 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last five starts versus Texas.
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In order to pitch the Tigers to victory in the series finale he'll need to cool off a red hot Rangers team that has won four straight and has scored a total of 19 runs in their last three games. Hoping to match Verlander pitch for pitch will be Scott Feldman. He doesnt get the headlines like a Verlander or Beckett but hes one of the solid starters in the American Leauge. Feldman is 9-3, ERA is just 3.59 and hes got an era of 2.48 over his last five starts. Feldman has no career decisions against the Tigers and has only faced them once as a starter. Hes also made five relief appearances giving up 10 runs in 14 innings.
The perception some people still have of Rangers is Good Hit, No Pitching. Well all that has changed since Nolan Ryan took over as President of the team. Texas has the 10th best team ERA in baseball at 4.16 with an even better bullpen that ranks seventh in the majors with a 3.77 ERA. This Rangers team is now built on pitching and defense and any offense is a plus. Texas is still in the mix of things in the AL West despite down years from Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton. Nelson Cruz is the one offensive exception with 24 homeruns on the season.
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The Tigers have gotten by on the strength of their pitching staff which is ranked 8th in the majors despite an atrocious bullpen that ranks 22nd overall. Like Texas, Detroit isnt going to beat you into submission. Theyre going to rely on their starting pitching.just like today when Verlander takes the hill.
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The Rangers are going for their first three-game home sweep of Detroit in seven years. But it will take another strong offensive effort to get it done against Verlander. Runs should be scarce in this one. Take the under with a lean towards the Tigers.
Dominic Fazzini
Cleveland at L.A. ANGELS
It got tight at the end there, but the under in the Phillies-Diamondbacks game Tuesday came in to give me my second consecutive win on my complimentary selection. The Angels should cruise this afternoon to give me three straight.
Los Angeles ace John Lackey (6-4, 4.22 ERA) has been looking like his old self recently.
The veteran right-hander, who missed more than a month to start the season, is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA in five July starts, including 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last three outings. He allowed two runs and four hits in 7 2/3 innings Friday against Minnesota.
Lackey is 5-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Indians.
Cleveland starter Aaron Laffey (4-2, 3.71) is coming off of one of the best outings of his young career, allowing three hits in seven scoreless innings Friday at Seattle. The left-hander, though, is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two career starts against the Angels.
Los Angeles also is 21-10 against southpaws this season, and Laffey has a 4.45 ERA on the road, and a 4.88 ERA in day games.
Lackey’s record in day games, on the other hand, is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in five starts. With the big Texan back in the groove, I like Los Angeles to get its 14th win in 17 games. Go with the Angels on the run line.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS -1 1/2
Bobby Maxwell
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Detroit at TEXAS +110
Handed out a FREE winner Tuesday with my play on the Phillies in Arizona and today I'll deliver another one with the Rangers at home against the Tigers.
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After losing six in a row this season and seven straight to the Tigers dating back to last season, the Rangers have taken two straight in this series and will make it three in a row tonight with Scott Feldman (9-3, 3.59 ERA).
Feldman is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts and is coming off an eight-inning shutout performance against the Royals on Thursday when the Rangers got a 2-0 win. He hasn't allowed the opposition to score more than three earned runs in any of his last six outings and Texas is 5-1 in those six.
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Feldman has faced the Tigers just once, allowing three runs in six innings of an 8-7 loss back in August last season.
On the hill for the Tigers is Justin Verlander (11-5, 3.12) and he's been red-hot lately as well with a 0.78 ERA in his last three outings.
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Texas is on runs of 8-1 overall, 6-0 at home, 6-0 on Wednesdays, 5-0 when Feldman starts as a 'dog, 10-4 when the team is an underdog and 5-1 against A.L. Central teams. On the opposite side, the Tigers are just 0-4 in Verlander's last four roadies, 1-5 against A.L. West teams, 0-7 on the road and 16-40 on the road against teams with winning records.
In steamy Texas, the Rangers are 5-1 in their last six against the Tigers. Play Texas in this one.
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2♦ TEXAS
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the Yankees at the Trop.
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I know how good Matt Garza can be at home and the Rays are a very quality team that will compete with the Yankees and Red Sox as we have seen over the past season plus. But the way Joe Girardi's squad has been performing over the past few months I can't help but grab them at this cheap cheap number.
Joba Chamberlain is close to being great. He is not all that and does not eat up a ton of innings but the righty was filthy in that last start, is very good overall and should go six strong here. I do expect the talented Rays to plate a few runs as Crawford, Upton, Longoria and Pena are very very good but it's not like Garza is going to hurl a complete game shutout over Arod and the visitors.
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When push comes to shove at a near pick you just have to back the Yankees every time right now. Besides that lost series in Anaheim before the Break (but the Bombers never win there) New York has been easily the best team on the planet, save only possibly the Phillies last month.
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Tampa can win this game but I just don't see them doing it at the rate that the oddsmaker seems to believe.
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1♦ Yankees
Tom Freese
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Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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St. Louis is 17-4 their last 21 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over .600 and they are 9-3 when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Cardinals are 4-0 in the last 4 starts made by Joel Pineiro and they are 12-3 their last 15 games as favorites. Los Angeles is 8-26 their last 34 games at St. Louis and they are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 1-4 their last 5 games as underdogs and they are 1-4 their last 5 games overall. PLAY ON ST LOUIS
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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SEA (+160) vs TOR
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Stictly a value play here. With all of the controversy surrounding Halladay I feel the sharp wager is on the home side in this situation! Now that Tuesdays self-imposed deadline Toronto set for any deal involving Halladay (11-3, 2.62 ERA) has passed, the six-time All-Star could very much remain with the Blue Jays (49-52) even after Fridays major league trade deadline. Halladay, whos 1-2 in his last six starts, allowed one earned run and four hits while striking out 10 in nine innings of a 4-2, 10-inning loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. Ryan Rowland-Smith (0-1, 3.48) makes his third start and second since his lengthy minor league rehab assignment from triceps tendinitis. Look for SEATTLE to improve to 20-14 (+7 units) in day games!
JIM FEIST
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NEW YORK YANKEES / TAMPA BAY RAYS
TAKE UNDER
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Smoke gets in your eyes! Some bettors might be looking at two of the top three offenses in the majors meeting here, but the guys on the hill are throwing smoke and striking out batters. Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees has a 3.00 ERA his last three starts, fanning 18 in 18 innings. Matt Garza of the Rays has a 2.25 ERA against the Bronx Bombers this season and has fanned 21 his last 3 starts (20 innings). Look for a pitcher's duel and plenty of K cards, play the Yankees/Rays Under the total.