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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday July 29,2009

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(@blade)
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DAVE COKIN
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CHICAGO WHITE SOX / MINNESOTA TWINS
TAKE CHICAGO WHITE SOX"
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The Metrodome continues to be a nightmare locale for the White Sox. But I am going to take a shot with the Chisox to salvage the finale of this series. Bartolo Colon looked okay in his first start back off his latest DL stint, and Francisco Liriano has just one home win all season. This game looks like a tossup to me, so I see some okay value in grabbing the decent road dogs odds with the White Sox.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 8:25 am
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LT Profits

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
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The St. Louis Cardinals have easily taken the first two games of this series by sores of 6-1 and 10-0, and as much respect as we have for Dodger starter Clayton Kershaw tonight, we are looking for another St. Louis Run Line win at a fat +185 price.

After all, Kershaw was much more hittable than usual in his last start vs. the Florida Marlins, when he was tagged for nine hits with three walks added in over six innings of a 6-3 Dodgers loss. He must now cope with a Cardinals offense that is heating up at just the right time, batting .280 as a team over the last 10 games. More importantly, after struggling vs. southpaws for much of the season, St. Louis is batting .283 against them over this 10-game period.
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Besides, despite owning just a 9-9 record, Cardinals starter Joel Pineiro has an almost identical ERA as Kershaw over the whole season (2.95 vs. 2.96) and a better WHIP (1.08 vs. 1.26). The only reason Pineiro is not a bigger winner is because the Cardinals were not scoring over the first half of the season, a circumstance that has greatly changed as of late. Pineiro has allowed three runs or less in nine straight starts and in 11 of his last 12 outings.
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A similar outing here should be good enough to cash a nice Run Line ticket at nearly 2/1 odds tonight.
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Pick: Cardinals -1.5

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 8:48 am
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Jimmy The Moose
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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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Pittsburgh has lost their last 4 games. In their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record they are 4-9. They are 19-48 in their last 67 road games. In their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record they are 11-40. The Pirates have lost 4 of Duke's last 5 starts. They are 5-24 in his last 29 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants have won their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. team with a losing record. San Fran is 7-0 in Cain's last 7 starts as a home favorite. The Giants have won 14 of Cain's last 17 home starts. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 trips to San Francisco. Play on the San Francisco Giants -.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 8:48 am
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DUNKEL
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LA Dodgers at St. Louis
After dropping the first two games of the series, the Dodgers look to build on their 6-0 record in Clayton Kershaw's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105).
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Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 16.321; Cubs (Wells) 15.255
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); N/A

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.773; San Francisco (Cain) 14.857
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under

Game 955-956: Colorado at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 16.095; NY Mets (Santana) 15.475
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over
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Game 957-958: San Diego at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.371; Cincinnati (Harang) 13.335
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Under

Game 959-960: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.556; Florida (Johnson) 17.123
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-155); Under
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Game 961-962: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 13.993; Milwaukee (Parra) 13.843
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.267; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.126
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105); Under
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Game 965-966: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 16.054; Arizona (Petit) 16.583
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Under

Game 967-968: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 15.505; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.359
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Over
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Game 969-970: Toronto at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 14.229; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.985
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+165); Over

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.226; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.458
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over
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Game 973-974: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.724; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.554
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 16.474; Boston (Penny) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+170); Over
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Game 977-978: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.321; Texas (Feldman) 15.195
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under

Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 16.287; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.081
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+140); Over

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WNBA
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Los Angeles at Chicago
The Sparks look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3 1/2).
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Game 651-652: Los Angeles at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 108.766; Chicago 110.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 147 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3 1/2); Over

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 8:53 am
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Vernon Croy
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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals
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We are getting solid value here Wednesday night with one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound going against Chris Tillman who makes his Major League debut. Tillman has pitched great for Triple-A Norfolk with an ERA of just 2.70 over 18 starts but that was in Triple-A. Zack Greinke (10-6, 2.04 ERA) has pitched solid this season and he just limited a very potent Texas Rangers line-up to 1 earned run and 3 hits over 7 innings while striking out 10 batters. Greinke has an ERA of just 2.25 over his last 3 starts and he allowed just 1 earned run earlier this season against the Orioles over 7 innings. The Royals are 5-1 in Greinke's last 6 starts against a team with a losing record and the Orioles are just 1-7 in their last 8 games. Take the Kansas City Royals Wednesday night.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 9:17 am
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Ron Raymond
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MIN / CWS Under 9.5
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When CHI WHITE SOX team played as a Road team - After a division game - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent - Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series; the UNDER is 12-0-0 for the White Sox in this role since 1997.
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When MINNESOTA team played as a Home team - Total is between 9.5 to 10.0 - 3rd game of a series - Coming off a 3 game winning streak - Coming off a night game; The UNDER is 9-2-0 for the Twins in this spot.
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When CHI WHITE SOX Played as a Underdog - During Last 5 Years - With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G; The UNDER is 31-7-3 for the White Sox in this cycle.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 9:18 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS
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Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles have not gone OVER the total in the last eight games and coincidentally they have lost seven of those eight games. Tonight, they will face Zack Greinke who has stayed UNDER the total in 13 of his 17 night games this season. The Royals are averaging just 3.5 runs per game on the road and 3.9 runs in all games. The Orioles offense is not a powerhouse either as they put up 4.6 runs per game. Go with the UNDER
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Play on: UNDER

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 9:34 am
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The Spread

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, 7:08PM ET

NY Yankees are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games
NY Yankees are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home

Pick: Tampa Bay

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, 8:05PM ET

Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

Pick: Texas

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:15PM ET

LA Dodgers are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 17-3-1 SU in their last 21 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
St. Louis is 17-5-1 SU in their last 23 games when playing LA Dodgers

Pick: St. Louis

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 10:57 am
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Yankee Capper

Pittsburgh/San Francisco Over 7
Milwaukee Brewers -195
Florida Marlins -145

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 10:58 am
(@undefeated77)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
301 - 196 run 60 % 49-25 run here

WED Tampa Bay

8)

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 10:58 am
(@blade)
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John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they face Arizona set to start at 9:40 EST. Both Happ and Halladay start tonight and both will more than likely be starting for the same teams next week as well based on published reports. Phillies may be strong arming the Blue Jays and bluffing their unwillingness to include top prospect Drabek. It will be interesting to see how the poker hands are played out as the deadline nears. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 52-13 for 80% winners since 1997. Play against home dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that is an average offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs/game facing a good NL starter posting an ERA<=3.70; after a loss by 2 runs or less. Phils are 9-2 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season; 15-3 (+11.4 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season. Arizona is in horrid roles for a win. Note that they are just 1-9 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 54% to 62% this season; 2-13 (-10.9 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Take Philadelphia.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 11:07 am
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BEN BURNS

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota
PICK: Over 9

The White Sox have seen 10 consecutive games stay below the total. I won't be surprised if that streak comes to an end this evening.

As we've seen in the past, Liriano is a very capable pitcher. However, he's been inconsistent this season, to say the least. In fact, he's just 4-10 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.5 WHIP. He hasn't really been getting better, either. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0-2 record (Twins are 0-3) with a 5.94 ERA and 1.621 WHIP. Note that Liriano got rocked by the White Sox twice already this season and is 0-3 with a terrible 9.82 ERA and 1.909 WHIP against them.

Contreras goes instead of Colon and he's just 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA on the road. His last three starts vs. the Twins have produced 17, 14 and 15 combined runs. With the total having fallen from 9.5 to nine, I feel the 'over' is worth a look.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 11:07 am
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Dennis Macklin
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Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Under
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The numbers indicate that runs will be VERY tough to come by in tonight's Dodgers/Cards matchup. Both Clayton Kershaw and Joel Pineiro have season ERAs below three and both are in current razor sharp form. Kershaw is 2-0 and 1.63 in his L3, Pineiro better yet at 3-0 and 0.82 in his L3. The Cards are 16-5 to the under off a shutout and 18-10 low versus southpaws. First one to three wins, play the UNDER.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 11:13 am
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MTI Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Diamondbacks are 4-23 as a dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1800 when playing against and 4-29 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started. The Phillies are 26-4 when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series. Philadelphia finishes off the Snakes.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 11:14 am
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Wunderdog

Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Play: Colorado Rockies +1½

The New York Mets have had a very disappointing and frustrating season. The injury list is lengthy and reads like a whose-who of fallen stars and the lineup has lost a lot of its potency. Johan Santana is a top of the rotation pitcher, but the Mets have turned in just a 4-6 record in his last ten starts and, because of a sputtering and depleted offense, two of those were by a single run, making the count 2-8 to a would be -1.5 runline. Jason Hammel for the Rockies was awful to start the season and the Rockies subsequently lost seven of his first eight starts. Hammel has done a much better job since and the Rockies, who are playing like a contender anyway, have been 9-3 in his last 12 starts. The three losses have been by a single run and the other two each by two runs. Certainly see a lot of value pointing to the runline here, and I will back the Rockies on the runline in this one.

 
Posted : July 29, 2009 11:15 am
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