Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 3

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays and Astros meet in Houston in Game Three of this four-game set Wednesday evening where Roberto Hernandez battles Bud Norris. Hernandez, aka: Fausto Carmona, has settled in nicely with the Rays starting staff and enters today's contest in solid KW form with 29 strikeouts and 6 walks his last six starts. Hernandez is also 13-5 in his career team starts during July, including 5-0 away. With Norris 4-11 in his career team starts in July, and 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his career team starts against Tampa Bay, look for more of the same tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

John Ryan

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies

The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will win this game. Dodgers are climbing their way back into playoff contention, but this is a tough assignment for them to overcome. Dodgers are just 4-18 (-16.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Colorado is a near-perfect 10-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when facing an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. Kershaw threw a complete game shutout allowing just four hits to a very strong Rockie offensive club. These types of offenses rarely have back-to-back struggles and I strongly believe that the Rockies will hammer Dodger starter Zack Greinke. He has allowed 24 hits with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.400 WHIP in his last three starts spanning 10 innings of work. In his last start he allowed 4 ER on 12 hits in 6-4 win over Philadelphia. Now, Colorado is a vastly superior team than Philadelphia. So, look for the Rockies bats to come alive in a very big way tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Houston Astros +120

There is a lot of value on Houston as an underdog against the Rays today. Tampa Bay is 19-21 on the road this season and they are up against one of the best pitchers in the Astros' rotation. Bud Norris has a 2.38 ERA in his 10 home starts this season. He has given up just three home runs in those 10 games.

Tampa Bay will have Roberto Hernandez getting the start. Hernandez has been pitiful on the road going 1-5 in seven starts. He has a 5.93 ERA and a 1.390 WHIP in those games. Hernandez has not faced the Astros in his career, and as bad as he has been pitching I do not expect to see his first start against them to go very well.

Game Plan

Texas Rangers -125

King Felix opposes Derek Holland today. Hernandez is 12-18 when starting against Texas with an ERA of 3.87 and a WHIP of 1.281. Holland is 7-2 when starting against Seattle with an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.140.

Mariners are 3-13 in Hernandezs last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Mariners are 1-5 in Hernandezs last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Rangers are 14-2 in Hollands last 16 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rangers are 21-9 in Hollands last 30 starts as a home favorite.

It is always tough to go against King Felix but Texas coming off a loss will be motivated at home and have the right starting pitcher to oppose King Felix today. Texas is 17-6 at home against Seattle over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas today.

Jack Jones

Kansas City Royals -113

After losing Game 1 of this series to the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back with a Game 2 victory Wednesday due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Jeremy Guthrie is having yet another solid season at 7-6 with a 4.11 ERA. He has been at his best at home, going 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.196 WHIP over seven starts. Guthrie is also 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in five career starts against Cleveland.

Scott Kazmir is no match for Guthrie. Cleveland's left-hander has gone 4-4 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He has been at his worst on the road, going 0-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven starts away from home. Kazmir is also 3-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 11 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 12-2 in Guthrie's last 14 home starts. Kansas City is 9-0 in Guthrie's last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Royals are 15-3 in Guthrie's last 18 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Te Indians are 19-41 in their last 60 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 1-5 in Kazmir's last 6 road starts. Bet the Royals Wednesday.

Brad Diamond

Colorado Rockies -110

Right-handed Tyler Chatwood has been awesome this season for the Rockies. He has a super 4-1 mark with a nice 2.13 ERA. Over the last 7 starts the hurler has held the opposition to 8 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings. Manager Walt Weiss has been consistent holding the hurler to around 6 innings of work as a norm. On the other hand veteran Zach Greinke for Los Angeles has been a picture of inconsistency over the last three outings allowing 10 earned runs in the last 20 innings. He was hit hard by the Phillies and Pittsburgh. With that in mind, I will take a ticket with the Rockies who have owned this series of late, taking 10-of-14.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox -182

The Redsox are a solid favorite here but due to the high line we cannot unit rate, instead making then the free play for tonight. Boston has won 4 of 5 as a home favorite in this range and are on a 6-1 run. They are averaging over 6 runs per game on.340 hitting the past week and should put up runs tonight against the San Diego Padres and starts E. Volquez who has a 6.23 road era this year. Boston will counter with lefty John Lester who is 6-0 at home this season. The Padres have now lost 6 of their last 7 and are just 2-7 as a road dog from +150 to +200. There is also a 15-2 system in this game that plays on home favorites of -140 or more that are off a home favored win at -200 or higher and scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent that was a road dog of +140 or higher and scored 2 or less runs. Seems complicated to understand but these systems have worked well year in and year out. Look for Boston to take another from the fading San Diego Padres.

Art Aronson

New York Yankees -146

CC Sabathia (8-5, 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Sabathia took a no-hitter into the sixth inning vs. the hard-hitting Orioles on Friday, but was victimized by the long ball and would ultimately give up four runs off five hits while striking out six over seven innings in his team's eventual 4-3 setback. Sabathia will look to get back into the win column throwing opposite PJ Walters (2-4, 6.03 ERA) who continued his brutal season by giving up six runs off six hits with one walk while striking out one over three innings in a 9-3 blowout loss to the Royals on Friday (note that Walters owns a very unremarkable 1-2, 6.23 ERA home record). Simply put, this is a big game for Sabathia. Let's not kid ourselves, every game is "big" for every pitcher, but a victory today would give the big man his 200th career victory; while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Sabathia will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that he's 8-0 with a minuscule 1.79 ERA in his last nine vs. the Twins. One other player you'll want to keep your eyes on today is the Yanks' Robinson Cano, who had a three-run shot in yesterday's 7-3 victory and who has recorded five consecutive multi-hit games, going 12 for 21 with eight RBIs and eight runs plated. And that's bad news for Minnesota as Cano has hit .383 with 14 RBIs over his last 15 regular-season contests in Minnesota. The Twins are in free-fall mode right now having dropped three straight and eight of 11; note that things don't get any easier for the home side tonight either with slugger Josh Willingham on the DL with a meniscus tear. Sabathia gets the slight nod on the mound; the Yanks get the slight nod at the plate. Consider a second look at New York in this one.

Jeffrey Brandes

Yankees vs. Twins
Play: Over 8½

Pitchers:
NEW YORK YANKEES: CC SABATHIA (L) ERA: 4.15 W/L: 8-6
MINNESOTA TWINS: PJ WALTERS (R) ERA: 6.03 W/L: 2-4

NEW YORK YANKEES starter CC SABATHIA has a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts.
MINNESOTA TWINS starter PJ WALTERS is 0-3 with a 16.00 ERA in his last 3 starts.

The Totals looks like a no-braniner. TAKE THE OVER.

Key Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has a better road record than Houston has at home. The Rays are 18-8 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400 and 5-0 against the AL West. The Astros are 10-22 in their last 32 home games vs. a right-handed starter and have all kinds of problems in the field on defense and on the mound. Starter Bud Norris has a 6.30 ERA against the Rays, who have a Top 10 offense in runs scored and on base percentage. And the Astros are 6-20 in Norris' last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado RockiesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League West. LA is Dodgers are 5-1 in Greinke's last 6 starts as a favorite. The Rockies are 1-4 in Chatwood's last 5 starts.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago Cubs at Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Fully respect the recent efforts of Cubs starter Matt Garza, who has three strong outings in a row to tempt any interested suitors in the trade market. But simply have to keep backing the A's at the Coliseum, especially when Bartolo Colon is on the mound. The recent numbers are mostly overwhelming for the former Cy Young winner, who has astoundingly won his last eight starts while being particularly tough to hit at home; four games, all wins; 30 IP, 22 H, and 3 ER for an 0.90 ERA. Oakland had also won 16 of its last 19 at home prior to Tuesday night's battle. And not to nitpick too much with Garza, but note that his recent foes have included very beatable Brewers, Astros, and Mets sides.

Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Marlins vs. BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Braves are 3-22 Under at home coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit (night gm) and did not lead by three or more runs after 4 innings. We note that 25 of 38 games in this series have gone Under the total over the last 3 seasons including a run of 12 of the last 17 played in Atlanta.

Will Rogers

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati

The Giants were just no-hit last night by Homer Bailey, have Barry Zito on the mound tonight and generally have just been playing bad baseball of late. Add it all up, and you have an easy free play on the Reds tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. No-Hitter - Perhaps it should come as no surprise that the Giants became the 1st team in MLB to be no-hit this year. They have scored two runs or less in 9 of the last 12 games. They are just 2-10 over that span, getting held to one or zero runs in each of their last four losses. They have scored just 18 runs while batting .196 as a team the last nine games. They are 2 for 23 with runners in scoring position the last six games.

2. Barry Zito - This isn't the 1st time this season I've mentioned Zito's road struggles this season and it probably won't be the last. Still winless away from home in six starts, Zito has a horrible 10.40 ERA and 2.457 WHIP in those outings. He allowed four runs on 10 hits in just 5 1/3 innings in his last start, at Colorado. The last four times he has faced Cincinnati, he has received only two runs of support.

3. X-Factor - Tony Cingrani makes his return to the Reds rotation tonight, looking to build some solid numbers. He's 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA as a starter, allowing three earned runs or less in six of seven starts.