Jesse Schule
Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
The Mariners won in a rout (9-2) in Game 1 of their series in Texas, chasing Justin Grimm from the game after just four innings. Game 2 might be a different story facing Derek Holland, who tossed a complete game 2-hit shutout in the Bronx his last time out.
Holland (6-4 3.14 ERA) has already defeated the Mariners once this year, allowing just two unearned runs in two starts. Success against the Mariners in nothing new for Holland, he's 6-1 in nine starts versus Seattle since 2010.
Felix Hernandez will toe the rubber for Seattle, and the Mariners have lost each of his last two starts. Hernandez (8-4, 2.70) pitched well in Pittsburgh, allowing two runs on six hits while fanning 11 over seven innings, but as is often the case, the Mariners couldn't give him any runs and Seattle lost 4-2. Run support wasn't a problem in his previous start in Los Angeles, as he allowed seven runs on 12 hits over just five innings, with the Mariners losing 10-9 to the Angels.
Felix has really struggled against Texas, he's 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA versus the Rangers this season. Prior to the 2013 campaign, he posted a record of 1-3 with a 4.48 ERA in five starts at The Ballpark in Arlington since 2010.
While Felix is normally a good bet, he's in a particularly tough spot here in Texas, and a play on the home team comes at a fair price.
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San Diego at BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Edinson Volquez continues to do just enough to make bettors feel like he turning the corner but his overall body of work is still flawed. Some of his peripherals indicate he's pitched better than his 5.50 ERA but walks and command are still and issue and tonight he faces a very patient Boston lineup (AL-leading .350 OBP) in hitter friendly Fenway. Volquez is certainly improved from earlier this season but don't underestimate the significant step up in class from facing the Giants, Dodgers, and Marlins to the Red Sox.
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Jon Lester has had his struggles this season but has also faced one of the toughest schedules in all of baseball. The lefty just finished a five-game swing against Toronto, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa, and Texas. The numbers don't necessarily show it but he has pitched better of late and seems to be more confident in his approach. This isn't the San Diego lineup of old – they do have some run scoring ability. But I feel at home, and with Doug Eddings behind the plate, this sets up well for a strong effort from Lester. I think this is actually a reasonable price given the matchup.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -150
The Pirates are likely heading for a playoffs spot, and they have done so by dominating at home where they are now 28-14 on the season, despite the loss last night. The good news is that they have been even more lethal following a same home stand loss at home, where they are a robust 9-2 on the season, and neither of those loses came at the hands of a losing team. You know the Phillies' situation has changed when they try to fortify their rotation with John Lannan who has had little success vs. Pittsburgh in his career. Lannan owns a 1-4 mark with a 4.53 ERA when battling the Pirates in his career. At 7-1Jeff Locke is backed by a powerful 2.06 ERA, and has been great thus far on the season, owning six shutout innings vs. the Phillies this season. The Pirates have pounded losing teams to the tune of 22-5 in their last 27 against them. Play on Pittsburgh.
MLB Predictions
Cubs / Athletics Under 7.5
Tonight I don't expect to see anything like the 8-7 final score we saw between these two teams last night as two hot starting pitchers will take the mound. Matt Garza will be on the rubber for Chicago and he is 3-1 on the year over 8 starts with a 3.83 ERA, .230 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has pitched 22 innings giving up just 2 earned runs while striking out 23 and walking just 5. Oakland will send who has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Bartolo Colon. Colon is 11-2 on the year with a 2.79 ERA, .257 OBA and 1.08 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs against in any of his past 9 starts, and he has an 8 game winning streak during which he's posted a 1.37 ERA. Over his last three starts he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, which includes allowing just 1 earned run over 8 innings of work against the Cardinals his last time out. His numbers are better at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA, .235 OBA and 0.96 WHIP. Tonight we've got two very solid starting pitchers taking the mound in a pitchers friendly ball park and I think we'll see a low scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY (-140) over Houston
We have hit 63% of our free picks since mid-May and many of those selections have been baseball underdogs. Today, however, we're going to lay some wood on the road. We'll gladly risk some bankroll to go against Astros starter Bud Norris, who has a career 6.30 ERA against the Rays. What's more, Houston has won just six of Norris' last 26 starts against winning teams. The Rays are one of the best road teams in all of baseball and Houston is a dismal 10-22 at home against right-handed starters. The price is right. Take the Rays on the road.
Nelly
Colorado Rockies + over Los Angeles Dodgers
Zack Greinke's last start in Colorado was a rough one with nine hits allowed and Greinke has not lived up to his billing this season, notable for skirmishes rather than wins. His 3.94 is indicative of his average results and in five of his last eight starts he has allowed at least four runs. He rarely walks batters but has given up plenty of hits and in Coors Field that can be a problem. Colorado has slumped a bit on offense but at home against right-handed pitching the Rockies are batting .279 on the season while scoring 5.5 runs per game. On the road the Dodgers have scored just 3.7 runs per game and even though they have been a hot team this could be a tough outing. Tyler Chatwood has only pitched 50 innings but his ERA is just 2.13 and he has gone eight straight starts without allowed more than two runs. He also has not allowed a home run all season and pitched six shutout innings the last time he faced the Dodgers. The Dodgers won six of seven on the last home stand but the wins came against struggling hitting teams and despite going 6-1 in that stretch the Dodgers were out-scored 32-30. The Rockies did nothing last night against Clayton Kershaw but few teams have and Colorado has the far better bullpen on the season. Los Angeles is just 14-22 on the road and Greinke has not proven that he deserves favoritism in this matchup.
Bryan Power
Chicago vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Bartolo Colon has been absolutely ridiculous this season for the A's, going 11-2 w/ a 2.79 ERA. He gets the starting nod tonight, looking to win a ninth straight start as his team looks to make it B2B wins over the Chicago Cubs. I think they will.....
Colon is on the run of a lifetime. He has posted a 1.37 ERA during the eight-start win streak and has allowed just 1 HR in 59 innings of work. This is his longest win streak since taking home the Cy Young in 2005 (won 21 games). Last time out, he allowed just one run in eight innings, beating St. Louis. Every start has been quality during the win streak. Facing a Cubs team that is batting only .229 away from home this year should continue this strong stretch.
The Cubs are already giving up on this year. They traded one starter, Scott Feldman, yesterday and tonight's starter Matt Garza could be the next to go. Garza has certainly pitched well in 2013, but he's winless at night. Chicago is 11-31 on the road off a one run loss and 36-77 as a road dog since the start of last season. Oakland is 24-9 as a home favorite this year.
Michael Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals +100
•Cardinals are 19-7 in their last 26 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
•Cardinals are 18-7 in their last 25 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
•Cardinals are 41-16 in their last 57 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
•Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 Wednesday games
Jeff Alexander
Texas Rangers -136
Felix Hernandez is having another solid season. However, the Marines have won only 8 of his 17 starts as he's received little run support from an offense that's batting just .238 and scoring 3.7 runs per game. The Mariners are 3-13 in Hernandez's last 16 starts versus winning teams and 2-6 in his last 8 starts versus the Rangers. Hernandez is 0-2 against the Rangers this season, allowing 9 runs on 21 hits in 12 1-3 innings. Hernandez was outdueled by Derek Holland in one of the losses. That doesn't come as a surprise considering Holland is 7-3 with an ERA of 3.37 in 10 starts versus Seattle.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +106
The Braves have won 8 straight versus Miami by an average of 3.75 runs. I expect them to continue their dominance of the Marlins behind a gem from Minor, who is 8-3 with a 2.98 ERA and hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts versus Miami. The Marlins have had major issues with southpaw starters, averaging only 2.5 runs per game against them with a batting average of .218. In addition, the Marlins have dropped 15 of Nolasco's last 20 starts overall and each of his last 3 starts against the Braves. These 3 losses all came by 6 runs or more. Take Atlanta on the run line.
Alex Smart
Toronto Blue Jays +105
Tigers have not done well for their betting backers in a away chalk role as is evident by a 18-40 mark in their last 58 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 . Meanwhile the Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series, and really come to play when all the marbles in play . The Tigers are 4-10 in their last 14 during game 3 of a series. The .Blue Jays are also 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter and even the red hot Motown starter is fair game for an explosive Jays batting order. With main stream bettors all over meida darling Scherzer today Ill take a contrarian stance and back the home team, to come out of this with a underdog win!
Steve Janus
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +106
I believe this is a strong spot to back the Red Sox on the Run Line. Boston enters having won six of their last seven and are an impressive 29-16 at home. The Padres are losers of four straight and are just 15-26 on the road. Those home/away splits are a big factor in this play with the two starters on the mount. Boston's Jon Lester is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA at Fenway Park, while San Diego's Edinson Volquez has a miserable 6.23 ERA and 1.720 WHIP in nine road starts.
I've also spotted a couple key trends that favors the Red Sox to win by more than 1 run tonight. The Padres are just 4-24 in their last 28 games after scoring 1 run or less in two straight games over the last three seasons. The average score in these games were San Diego 2.1 - Opponent 4.6. At the same time Boston is 20-8 in their last 28 after a game where the bullpen didn't allow a run. The average score in those games were Red Sox 5.4 - Opponent 3.6
Ray Monohan
St. Louis Cardinals +100
There is a wide variety of lines on this game with some having the Angels and the Cardinal favored. I am going with St. Louis in this one as they look to rebound from last night’s loss. Shelby Miller has been fantastic for the most part this season and I think the Angels being unfamiliar with his stuff will be an advantage. The Cards slumping bats will come alive against NL retread starter Jerome Williams. St. Louis is just too good a team to continue such meek play. They are 3-6 in their last 10 but I think they will regroup before the All-Star break starting tonight. Miller bounces back too after his worst start of the season against Oakland.
Joe Gavazzi
Cincinnati -180
The Reds have won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 11-1. That has extended the Giants run to 11-22 and 1-8. In those 9 games, the defending champs have scored only 18 runs with a .196 BA. They have reached the nadir of their discontent last night when Homer Bailey threw a no hitter against them. Do not look for things to improve for the Giants with Zito on the mound. In his last 9 starts, Zito is 1-5 with a 5.88 ERA. In 6 road starts, Zito is 0-5 with a 10.41 ERA. Cingrani again fills in for Cueto who is on the DL for the third time. In 7 starts, Cingrani has a 3.15 ERA and has allowed 3 or fewer runs 6/7 of those games. Cingrani has been better from this mound where in 3 starts he has a 2.45 ERA.
Greg Shaker
Cleveland +104
The Royals are not having success verses Southpaws and the fact is they are not having much success at all right now winning or hitting lefties. The Indians are scoring runs in droves and most likely are going to send Guthrie to the showers early tonight. Jeremy has one of the worst K/BB Ratios in the league and pretty weird when you consider that this guys was/is touted as a strikeout pitcher. Consider the fact that over his last 4 games he has 5 K's and 11 BB's. That is just awful. He has had some time off to heal a bruised finger but is that a good thing? I don't think so. I am going to play the Hot Team here and at a small dog number. Seems way to No Brainer-like especially since Kazmir's latest numbers look like his numbers of old.