SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +169 over PITTSBURGH
At the time of this writing the line for this game had not posted yet but it looks like it’ll be John Lannan going for the Phillies against Jeanmar Gomez of the Pirates. We’ll figure on Gomez or Jeff Locke and the price to be somewhere in this range. We mentioned yesterday how the Pirates might be a good fade over the next couple of weeks because their best record in baseball makes them the most overvalued team in baseball. The Pirates rotation is turning into a mess with A.J. Burnett out and every other starter out-pitching their ERA by a significant margin. The Pirates have been able to compensate by scoring some runs by that’s unlikely to continue also. Over their past 20 games, Pirates' batters have struck out 180 times, which is the most in MLB over that stretch. The Phillies came in here last night and took the opener and broke Pittsburgh’s nine-game winning streak. What often follows a long winning streak after a loss is another loss and there’s little in Gomez’s skill set that suggests otherwise. Gomez enjoyed his best outing of the season last time out as he returned from the DL (forearm) to pitch five scoreless innings against Seattle. A repeat is unlikely here considering Gomez's poor command, low strikeout rate and 4.59 xERA. Gomez has pitched more than five innings just once in eight starts with a maximum pitch count of only 81, so chances of a win or quality start aren't very high. Gomez’s minor-league numbers hide his ugly, beneath the hood, major league stats history. xERA, command, and dominant start/disaster start splits are all telling you to stay away.
John Lannan is risky too. He’s never been consistent enough to last in any starting rotation but when he’s on his game, he can be very tough. Lannan has always had an elite groundball rate and this year is no different with a rate of 52%. Besides, Lannan isn’t the one spotting a significant tag here. We missed an opportunity last night when we pulled out of the first game of this series after a pitching change was made. That substitution did not change the fact that the Pirates were overvalued, just like they are again today. So whether it’s Jeff Jocke or Jeanmar Gomez today, the play is the Phillies and we’ll update it as soon as the line comes out. UPDATE: Locke is starting and the bet stands.
Seattle +115 over TEXAS
Felix Hernandez needs no introductions. Hernandez continues to be a sure-fire ace. He has posted five consecutive sub-3.50 ERA seasons and a sub-1.15 WHIP in three of the last four seasons. His skills also remain elite and any time a tag is offered on King Felix, one must, at the very least, give the Mariners a close look because they always have a great chance of winning when this guy takes the hill. Hernandez faces a Rangers lineup that is no longer an offensive force. Over their past 20 games, the Rangers are hitting a measly .244 and their 69 runs scored over that span is the fifth worst in MLB.
The Rangers are in this price range because their ace, Derek Holland gets this start. Holland has a 3.14 ERA in 16 starts and he’s also coming off a two-hit, complete game gem in New York against the Yankees. However, there are several cautionary flags pointing in Holland’s direction. In July of last year, Holland suffered from shoulder fatigue and as a result his fastball dipped from 94.1 to 90 MPH. His skills tanked along with his velocity and we could see him suffer a similar fate this year. Additionally, Holland has been awful at home over his last four starts, surrendering 35 hits over 22 innings but getting extremely fortunate with an 84% strand rate which led to just 14 runs against. Holland is getting smacked around at home and he could also suffer a letdown here after that gem in New York, a place he wanted to thrive in because of an extremely poor history there. He had something to prove in New York. The Mariners came in here last night and won 9-2 with Joe Saunders pitching. Nuff said.
Cleveland +102 over KANSAS CITY
The Indians are heating up again with five wins in a row while scoring 42 runs over that span. That’s likely bad news for Jeremy Guthrie. After spending time in Colorado and Baltimore, Guthrie seems to be enjoying the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. After some struggles in launching pads last year, he’s settled in as a regular part of the Royals’ rotation. His success since coming over to the Royals doesn’t mean he’s playable, it means he’s overvalued. With a low hit% and high strand% you can expect some ERA regression over the rest of the year. Guthrie has never been a big strikeout guy and this season his strikeout rate is almost laughable with just 49 in 101 innings. Combined with more walks (36) his command has dropped to an unacceptable level. Guthrie’s groundball rate is also on the decline with a rate of just 37% over his last eight games, down from 43% in his first eight. Guthrie has an xERA of 6.31 and if there ever was a sure thing for ERA regression, Guthrie is it. He may not last four innings here.
Scott Kazmir’s 4.83 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are not going to jump off the page but his base skills have been extremely good. Kazmir has 66 K’s in 69 innings to go along with a 43% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is also outstanding at 14% over his last five games. Kazmir is coming off back-to-back one-run, seven inning gems against Minnesota and Baltimore and he’ll now face a Royals team that has just seven wins in 21 decisions against southpaws. The take back is small but the overlay is huge because the Indians should be in the -140 range. Wrong side favored.
Chicago +174 over OAKLAND
Another blown save last night prevented the Cubs from winning their seventh game in the past 10. They also blew a save on Friday in Seattle. Conceivably, the Cubbies could be on a serious run had it not been for those two blown saves. Chicago scored another seven runs last night and has now scored five runs or more in six of their last eight games. The Cubs’ offense combined with this price tag make them very playable here with Matt Garza on the hill. Garza now looks to be hitting his stride after an early string of shaky starts after returning from the DL in late May. Garza has given up just two earned runs in his last three outings along with a 23/5 K/BB in 22 innings compared to a 6.26 ERA in his first five starts.
Bartolo Colon continues to defy logic. Here’s a guy that’s 40-years old, is 40 pounds overweight, has a below average strikeout rate, has a fly-ball bias profile and yet he’s 11-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 5-0 over his last five starts with an ERA of 1.75. Colon, at the age of 40, is posting better surface numbers than guys like Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry, Roy Halliday, John Smoltz and Sandy Koufax were posting in their prime. He’s also posting better surface stats than current aces like Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. We’re never going to get the money back we’ve lost fading Colon this year so this has nothing to do with chasing it. The fact is, Colon is average at best, he’s grossly overvalued and if he beats us again, so be it. Value is value and that absolutely applies here.
Los Angeles -1½ +155 over COLORADO
The Rockies have played five consecutive games at home. The most runs they’ve scored over that span were four and that occurred against Barry Zito’s 11.25 road ERA. Take out that lame offensive performance and the Rocks have scored two or fewer in each game. Overall, Colorado has scored four runs or less in seven straight. Last night they were buried 8-0 in the opener of this series and things don’t figure to get much better here with Tyler Chatwood going. Chatwood presents plenty of risk at Coors Field against the Dodgers despite being 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA on the season. Chatwood rode an 82% strand rate and 0% hr/f in June to a 2.14 ERA last month but his 4.66 xERA and 1.30 WHIP are skeptical that the good results will continue. Also going against Chatwood are poor results in both 2011 and 2012. Chatwood's nine walks and 11 K’s over his past four starts highlights the risk even more here when the regression comes calling. Against the red-hot Dodgers, that inevitable regression likely begins.
Zack Greinke has been a fraction of his former self. He used to be counted on for a pure quality start nearly every time out but since some health issues that has not been the case. That said, he can still deliver the goods and appears to be coming around. Over his last five starts, Greinke is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.18 and an xERA of 3.46. Over that span, he’s struck out 28 and walked nine in 34 frames and his groundball rate has increased from 39% to 45%. The Dodgers have won nine of 10 and over their past 20 games, L.A is in the top five in several offensive categories. The Dodgers can’t wait to get back to the park here while the Rockies are swinging at and missing everything these days. A savvy skilled vet like Greinke should have another strong outing here against a collective group of hitters that are pressing.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
LA Dodgers -114 over COLORADO: The Dodgers are healthy and they are now rolling, as they have won 9 of their last 10 games and I don't see them stumbling in this one. The LA offense has scored 5 rpg the last 7 games and last night they put up 8 runs in this park. That will happen if all the offense they have is healthy. Puig, Ramirez, Gonzalez are all hot and in this park they should put up some good runs on Tyler Chatwood. He has been good this year, but the LA offense is healthy and hot and I feel he will have trouble slowing them down here. Zack Greinke has had his struggles this year, especially on the road, but the Rockies can't hit a lick right now. The Rockies have averaged just 2.2 rpg in their last 6 games, while in the first 5 games of this current home stand they have put up 2 runs or less in 4 of those games. The dodgers have really worked hard to get out of the Cellar and back in playoff contention, while the Rockies are headed the other way, especially offensively. I will take the Hotter and healthier team to get the job done in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Boston/ San Diego Under 10: John Lester has struggled of late with his ERA, but he has pitched against Toronto at home, and Detroit, Baltimore and Tampa Bay all on the road in his last 4 starts. All good offensive teams. Now he is at home where he has a 3.24 ERA on the year and he will be facing a San Diego team that can't score right now as they have put up just 4 total runs in their last 4 games, while averaging just 2.6 rpg in their last 10 games. For the Sox their offense will always be dangerous, but Edinson Volquez comes in pitching really well with a 3.04 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Sox do hit righties well and the Padres hit south paws well, but I feel that both Pitchers have more than than enough to keep these offenses under wraps.
Baltimore -135 over CHICAGO: The Orioles took the loss last night, but that was a perfect flat spot for them. The were just off a highly emotional 3 game sweep of the Yanks and just couldn't get up for last night's game. Tonight they will as they look to get a first win in an Orioles uniform for Scott Feldman. The Sox are not playing all that well right now and I look for the O's to take advantage with a nice bounceback win here.
Rocketman
St Louis @ LA Angels
Play: St Louis +100
The St Louis Cardinals travel to Los Angeles to take on the Angels on Wednesday night. St Louis is now 25-8 this year after a loss. The LA Angels are 23-35 this year when playing at night. Shelby Miller gets the start for St Louis where he is 8-6 with a 2.79 ERA overall this year. He has 101 strike outs on the season compared to only 22 walks. St Louis is 41-16 last 57 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 1-7 last 8 games when Williams starts at home. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
Brett Atkins
The Reds return to the field after last night's historic feat by Homer Bailey, and I believe it's pretty indicative of how bad the Giants are playing. Advantage: Cingrani.
The young left-hander is 3-0 with a 3.42 ERA on the season, and even though he comes into this game after being pressed into emergency relief for an injured Johnny Cueto last Friday in Texas, I liked his indomitable spirit, as Cingrani labored for six walks in four innings. And though he struggled in a situation that was new to him, he improved as he went along.
Fact is, Cingrani has been solid for the Reds out of the rotation and in bullpen appearances all season, and has a great spot here, to steal some of Homer's spotlight.
His teammates should be able to help him out against San Fran's Zito, who is 0-3 in his last five starts after allowing four runs, 10 hits and three walks in 5-1/3 innings against the Rockies. He is 3-5 with a 6.25 ERA lifetime against Cincy, and will struggle tonight.
Play the Reds on the run line, and be sure the auto-listing is Cingrani over Zito.
2♦ CINCINNATI -1.5
Brad Wilton
Going for my 3rd straight comp play winner, as I back the surging Dodgers over the Rockies tonight at Coors Field.
Los Angeles opened the holiday set last night with a shutout win, as the Dodgers have now won 3 straight and are 9-1 their last 10 games overall.
Colorado meanwhile, has lost their last pair and are on a 2-5 dip their last 7 games overall.
Zack Greinke is gunning for his third win in a row as he opposes promising youngster Tyler Chatwood.
Chatwood has the better ERA this season, but with his club struggling to score runs, and struggling to win games, have to give the nod to Greinke to go out there and pace his team to another win.
Don't look now, but here come the Dodgers.
Play L.A.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Under in the Padres-Red Sox game from Boston.
Last night's affair at Fenway saw just 5 combined runs, as the Friars have now been held to just 4 total runs in their last 4 games, and have seen their last pair of contests hold Under the total.
Boston has played their last 3 and 4 of their last 6 overall Under the posted price.
It will be Volquez facing off against Lester, and Volquez has been throwing the ball pretty well of late, allowing 3 runs or less in each of his last 4 starts. As for Lester, he is in dire need of a quality outing, as the southpaw has been hit hard for over a month now.
Still, the Under is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 at home, and we have some wiggle room with the total of this one coming in at 10 runs.
Look for the Padres and Red Sox to hold Under one more time tonight.
3♦ SAN DIGEO-BOSTON UNDER
Craig Davis
Wednesday's free play winner in Under the total in Seattle and Texas.
The last time I saw Derek Holland pitch, he nearly no-hit the Yankees in a 2-0 Texas win.
The last time Hernandez pitched he rebounded nicely from his worst start in three years. Today these two go head-to-head in what promises to be a very low-scoring, defensive pitcher's duel.
"The Cat" (8-4, 2.70 ERA) allowed seven runs on 12 hits two starts ago against the surging Angels, but quickly rebounded in his last start allowing two runs on six hits while striking out 11 in seven innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Surprisingly, however, Hernandez didn't get the loss in the Angels game though the Mariners did lost, 10-9. He's actually 3-0 in his last six starts of the season with three no-decisions.
Derek Holland (6-4, 3.14), the hard-throwing lefty, counters for the Rangers and is coming in off a stellar two-hit performance against the Yankees in his last outing.
Only 92 pitches for a complete-game two-hitter... his first complete game since 2011 when he had three.
In his last two starts against Seattle, he's only allowed eight hits and two unearned runs over 14+ innings of work.
Take the Mariners/Rangers game to go UNDER the posted total today.
2♦ SEATTLE-TEXAS UNDER
Chris Jordan
Last night I told you I thought about using the Pittsburgh Pirates as my premium play, but that nine-game win streak was more scary, than it was encouraging. I told you the due theory is in effect, and as good as the Bucs were playing, a loss could be imminent, and I didn't want to jump on that one losing day - even if they roll to 10, 12 wins over 13 or 14 games.
Sure enough - they lost. But here's the deal, it was a no-action for me right here with the complimentary play, as starter Jeff Locke was scratched from the game.
Well with tonight's run line play, we're getting pitchers Jeff Locke and John Lannan automatically listed on your ticket, and that's cool with me.
After all, Pittsburgh's 25-year-old left-hander is looking to improve to 4-0 this season at PNC Park. He should have plenty of run support and should pitch with plenty of confidence, after tossing a two-hit shutout over six frames against the Phils en route to a win on April 23. Locke, who has not lost since April 7, is 7-1 with a 2.06 ERA this season.
The Pirates have dominated Baseball Tonight, and MLB.TV's topic of conversation, as they boast a Major League-best 51-31 mark, and just past the halfway point of the campaign, that means Pittsburgh is on pace for their first 100-win season since 1909. Incidentally, the swashbucklers won the World Series that season.
Lay the run line in this Keystone State series-opener, as we continue to monitor this win streak.
2♦ PITTSBURGH -1.5
Scott Delaney
Don't look now people, but the Angels of Anaheim of caught fire and are looking more like the team everyone expected them to be this season. They've won seven a row, and even though they're 8.5 back of the American League West-leading Oakland A's, that's nothing when there are about 80 games left in the season.
This is the most crucial point for some teams - just before the All-Star break, and you best believe Mike Scioscia will have his troops up for this series, against the National League-contending St. Louis Cardinals, who have dropped two back of the surging Pittsburgh Pirates.
This should make for an interesting pitching matchup, as the Redbirds hand the ball to Shelby Miller, while the Angels turn to Jerome Williams, who has been stellar in starting duty, including last Friday, when he matched Houston-ace Bud Norris over 6-1/3 innings with one-run ball. He's getting back-to-back starts for the first time in nearly five weeks, and I think he'll be up for it.
Side with the Angels. But don't list either Miller or Williams, I just like the Halos on momentum alone.
2♦ ANAHEIM
Bob Balfe
L.A Dodgers -110
Both pitchers are having really good seasons. The Dodgers paid a lot of money to be the west coast version of the Yankees and are slowly showing signs of life. The key to me in this game is Colorado not being able to locate the ball over the past few weeks. When you can't score runs you can't win in this league. I like the way L.A is playing right now and like Greinke a tad better as the starter tonight. Take the Dodgers.