Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Tigers in their matinee finale over the Nationals.
Justin Verlander may not be having a Cy Young type season, but I have a strong inkling that he will simply dominate the feeble Nationals attack this afternoon.
Washington has lost 8 of their last 12 games, and they have been held to 2 runs or less in 8 of the 12 setbacks as well.
Meanwhile, Detroit has won 4 in a row and 8 of their last 9.
Gio Gonzalez has been pitching well, but with little offense to support his cause, cannot count on him working a no-no today at Comerica Park.
Lay it with the Tigers.
4♦ DETROIT
Brad Wilton
Tonight's comp play is a "why not?" release on the Pirates over the Cardinals.
It is clear the Bucs are rolling. It is also clear the Cards are NOT rolling.
Pittsburgh has taken over first place in the Central Division, as the Pirates have won the first 3 of this 5 game set, and have won 8 of their last 11 overall.
St. Louis' losing streak is now at a whopping 6 straight games after getting swept over the weekend in Atlanta, and dropping the first 3 here at PNC Park.
"Why not" back the Pirates as the small home dog tonight?
Until I see some evidence that the funking Redbirds can put together a night where they get both pitching and hitting, I have no issue going against them.
It's Wainwright and Locke, and with Locke looking for win #10 on the season, I will side with the surging Pirates to make it 4-for-4 against the sliding Cardinals.
Pittsburgh is the play!
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Texas Rangers over the Angels of Anaheim, one night after these two looked as if they were playing a football game. Texas' come-from-behind 14-11 win had to serve as somewhat of a dagger, and I don't if the Halos will be able to recover quite honestly after losing the way they did the past two nights.
Monday A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto each hit solo home runs to deliver a walk-off win for the Rangers, ruining Jered Weaver's dominating outing. Last night Leonys Martin's three-run shot capped Texas' second straight victory in walk-off fashion. Last night the Rangers negated four leads, with Soto - Monday's walk-off hero - stroking a three-run shot in the eighth inning and Adrian Beltre delivering a game-tying hit in the ninth.
Plus, it's crystal clear the Rangers see how hot Oakland is, and know they can't afford to let up. I won't list either pitcher in this game beause I think the Halos are slumping and Texas has caught them in Arlington at the right time. The Angels have lost five straight overall, and are in on additional losing streaks of 1-7 as a road pup and 1-8 on the highway.
Take Texas tonight.
5♦ TEXAS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Wednesday night is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Arizona Diamondbacks, as the Snakes are mired in a three-game slide and now face one of the two hottest teams in baseball since late June.
One day after Roberto Hernandez became the 4th Rays starter to throw a complete game this month - no other team has more than two pitchers with one - you have to believe in Tampa Bay's chances in the American League East. The Rays improved to 28-9 since June 18 with last night's 5-2 victory over the Diamondbacks.
I'm not going to worry about listing Arizona's Wade Miley and Tampa's Jeremy Hellickson, cause this is all about riding out the freight train and a red-hot Rays team right now, as it's also a remarkable 21-4 this month. On the other hand, the Snakes are just 13-14 in July.
And make note, Tampa Bay has won 11 of its last 12 when its opponent starts a left-hander, while the Rays lead the Majors with a 23-11 mark against southpaw starters. Take Tampa tonight.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Bob Balfe
Boston Red Sox -150
I never am thrilled when we take a favorite around this price, but I just can't see Seattle beating Boston tonight. Lackey is the better pitcher and Seattle has trouble scoring on the road. All it takes is that one crooked run inning for the Red Sox and its all over. This team just made a major trade and the buzz around Boston is starting to get stronger as they are in a tight playoff race. They need wins in these spots. Take the Red Sox.
Rob Veno
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee
Based on the direction he was heading, it’s legitimate to figure Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta was simply a victim of Coors Field his last time out. In his six starts prior to that performance, Peralta was dominating opposing lineups going 3-1 with a 0.87 ERA and .181 BAA. Expect the perfect elixir for a Peralta bounce back to be this Cubs lineup which over their last seven games is mired in a slump that’s seen them average 2 runs per game, a .206 BAA and a .298 OBP. Chicago’s lineup is currently depleted of any power source other than Anthony Rizzo and in watching them, it seems they’re transitioning to the plate patience ways GM Theo Epstein’s Boston Red Sox executed so well during his tenure there. Without hitting prowess anywhere that of Boston’s, all Peralta has to do tonight is avoid a large number of walks. In six of his last nine starts he’s done just that and this appears to be a lineup he can limit the free passes against. Edwin Jackson pitching well as of late also but one huge problem for him could be the Brewers lineup. In three efforts versus them this season, Jackson is 0-3 having been lit up twice allowing 21 baserunners, and 11 earned runs in those 10.2 innings. Milwaukee’s resilience and battling attitude since the suspension of star Ryan Braun is worth noting and they appear to be the better all-around team right now. Only drawback to the Brewers is the toll yesterday’s double-header took on their bullpen but with 23 and 19 pitches respectively, setup man John Axford and closer Jim Henderson should have a good inning each left in the tank. Underdog price tag very appealing here and makes it worthwhile to roll with the Brew Crew.
Bryan Power
Yankees vs. Dodgers
Pick: Under
The oddsmakers aren't giving us much room to work with here, but nor should they. The Dodgers prevailed 3-2 yesterday, their 27th win in 33 games as the Yankees offensive struggles continued. They should continue tonight against Clayton Kershaw. But Hiroki Kuroda should keep this one low-scoring all around...
The Under has now cashed in four straight Dodgers games. With Kershaw pitching, that streak should reach five. His last start, a 2-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds saw him allow just one run over eight innings as he improved to 10-6 w/ a 1.96 ERA (best in baseball) and 0.873 WHIP on the season. There have been only three starts all season where Kershaw has given up more than three earned runs. The Under is 15-5 when he starts at Dodgers Stadium as a money line favorite of -175 or higher. Facing a Yankees lineup that has scored two runs or less in 11 of its last 19 games should not be a great challenge. New York is batting just .208 against National League pitching this season while averaging just 2.4 runs per game. The Yanks average just 3.3 runs per game vs. lefties.
Crazy as it may seem, but Hiroki Kuroda has actually been better than Kershaw lately. He has a 0.96 ERA his last three starts, two of them seeing him not allow a single earned run. Going back one more start, he hasn't allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts, posting 16 strikeouts against just four walks. The Dodgers still only average 3.3 runs per game at home for the season.
Joe Gavazzi
San Diego +110
The Reds are in an offensive funk losing 5 consecutive games in which they have tallied 5 total runs. They are recently just 3-9 on the road. Bailey is well acquainted with the Reds lack of run support. In fact in his last 8 starts, Bailey is 1-6 with a 4.25 ERA receiving just 1.9 RPG in support. And that includes his no hitter. A poor performance on the road by Bailey would be no surprise. The Reds are 2-9 in road starts by Bailey where he has a 4.52 ERA. That is sharply in contrast to the home performance of Stults. San Diego has won 11/12 recent home starts by Stults including the last 8. For the season from this mound, Stults has a 2.45 ERA with 0.88 WHIP. San Diego is good enough to have a 34-21 run on their resume but bad enough to have losing streaks of 5-15 and 4-18. With 4 consecutive victories, we will ride another positive streak by San Diego on a field where they are 29-23.
Doug Upstone
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Play Against road underdogs like the Yankees with a money line of +150 or more, with an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
Jeff Alexander
Atlanta Braves -172
The Braves have been one tough cookie at home where they've won 46 of their last 63. Look for their home-field success to continue with Minor on the mound. The Braves are 11-4 in Minor's last 15 starts overall and 7-0 in his last seven starts versus NL West foes. The Rockies have dropped 15 of their last 21 on the road. They're also just 5-16 in their last 21 against the Braves and 7-28 in the last 35 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Braves.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -140
The Los Angeles Angels have essentially packed it in. They have lost five straight to drop to 48-57 on the season and now have little to play for the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Texas (58-49) has plenty to play for as it trails Oakland by five games for 1st place in the AL West.
I'll gladly fade Los Angeles starter Jerome Williams tonight. He has been atrocious this season, going 4-7 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.534 WHIP in 14 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.45 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three starts.
Martin Perez has done a solid job for the Rangers this season, going 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA in eight starts this year. He has been at his best at home, going 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA over three home starts while allowing only four earned runs over 18 1/3 innings.
The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Los Angeles is 2-10 in Williams' last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 41-20 in their last 61 during game 3 of a series. Bet Texas Wednesday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +120 over DETROIT
It’s different to see Justin Verlander as a risky favorite but the numbers don’t lie. Verlander’s recent string of performances has raised questions about what is wrong with the long-time ace. Over his last seven starts, he has just 31 K in 50.2 IP, while walking 23. Two of those seven starts came against the White Sox in which Verlander surrendered 23 hits in 13 innings against the AL’s lowest scoring team. Overall, Verlander has an unacceptable 1.41 WHIP, a decreasing groundball rate that has gone from 41% in April and May to 36% in June and July. At 220+ IP for four straight years and 137 already this year, the signs suggest Verlander might be in trouble with a “dead arm”. Verlander’s ERA over his last five starts is 4.68 and his xERA is 5.08. He may look appealing spotting a cheap price at home by his standards but the warning signs are loud and clear.
To say that Gio Gonzalez has come on strong after a slow start is an understatement. Since June 1, nine of his 10 starts have been pure quality. His skills for each month have gotten progressively better. Gonzalez’s 16% line-drive rate is the lowest among NL starters that have pitched 50 innings or more. Gonzalez also has an elite 53% groundball rate, 136 K’s in 130 innings and a solid 1.19 WHIP. He rarely loses on his own, as his three losses in 21 starts this season attest to. Gonzalez is among the elite. His 16% line-drive rate and all his other skills is a testament to how difficult it is for opponents to square up his stuff. Expect nothing less here.
Toronto +139 over OAKLAND
Over his last three road starts, R.A. Dickey has faced Cleveland, Texas and Tampa Bay. He allowed 14 hits and three earned runs over 20.2 innings in those starts and that’s against three very good hitting clubs. Once again, this isn’t the Rogers Center, where Dickey can’t keep the ball in the yard. This is perhaps the best pitcher’s park in the AL and Dickey has a great chance to thrive here.
The Blue Jays can hit. They have several players in their line-up that are swinging a hot bat at the moment and they scored four times in the opener of this series and five times last night. Over the past 30 games, Toronto is a top-3 team in several offensive categories that include runs scored, team batting average, HR’s and SLG % to name a few. Now the Blue Jays get their shot at Bartolo Colon. We keep suggesting Colon’s dream season can’t last but so far it has with below average skills that are getting worse. Colon has 16 K’s over his past 35 frames. In his last start against the Angels, his WHIP was 1.50 but he somehow managed to escape jam after jam and ended up allowing two runs over six innings with two walks and two strikeouts. Colon’s 87% strand rate over his last 10 starts is the highest in the majors and it’s not close. The closest one to him is 79%. He relies primarily on his fastball, which doesn’t get above 90 mph these days. The Blue Jays have feasted on fastballs all season long and once again we’ll fade the luckiest pitcher in baseball.
Seattle +138 over BOSTON
One has to figure that the trade the Red Sox made yesterday was in direct reaction to what the Tampa Bay Rays have done over the past two months. Tampa is the team that the Red Sox must go through in order to make the playoffs and/or advance deep should they get there. The Rays just took four of five games from Boston. Tampa throws out young, dominant arms with stuff every night. The Rays are a freight train right now and the Red Sox figured they had to do something with Clay Buchholz’s status becoming more uncertain every day. The Red Sox took a huge risk in trading for Jake Peavy, a guy that is past his prime and has spent 145 days on the DL over the past three years. There’s a big difference pitching for San Diego and the South Side than from pitching in a pressure filled pennant race in Boston. The Red Sox traded away Jose Iglesias, an outstanding glove that is also hitting .330 this year and that is going to be a fixture wherever he plays for the next 10 years or more. We mention this because the Red Sox players (and their fans) might be in a bit of shock today over a trade that has long term consequences that cannot turn out well for Boston. That move doesn’t exactly instill Boston’s faith in John Lackey either. Lackey was on a huge roll recently but over his past two games he has surrendered 19 hits and nine runs over 12.2 innings and one of those starts came against the light-hitting Yankees. Lackey’s ERA went from 2.78 to 3.19 after his last two starts and perhaps the Red Sox see something that is worrisome. Boston has lost three of Lackey’s last four starts.
When you’re a starting pitcher in Seattle, you’re going to find yourself in the shadow of King Felix Hernandez but with a 10-4 record Hisashi Iwakuma is casting some shadows of his own. Iwakuma’s skills keep getting better. Over his last five starts over 29 innings, Iwakuma has a 56% groundball rate, a 13% line-drive rate and 28 K’s with just five walks issued. Iwakuma’s dominance can be seen in his 72%/5% dominant start/disaster start split over 22 starts. Overall, Iwakuma has a 0.95 WHIP, a 2.87 ERA and 129 K’s in 144 frames. While he’ll never challenge the King for the top slot in the Seattle rotation, he’s been as good as or better than Hernandez but he’s not priced in the same range and that offers up some great value.
Kansas City -107 over MINNESOTA
Here come the Royals. K.C. has won seven straight and they are now just five games back in the Wild Card race with a long way to go. Over the Royals seven-game winning streak they defeated Chris Sale, swept the Orioles and took the opener of this series last night, 7-2. They now get their easiest assignment of them all when facing Kevin Correia. How desperate are the Twins for starting pitching? They inked this stiff to a two-year deal worth 10M. Correia has walked 13 batters and struck out 15 over his past 24 innings. Over his last five starts he has a 1.88 WHIP, an xERA of 5.85 and a 26% line-drive rate. This year, Correia has a BAA of .296. He didn’t make it out of the second inning in his last start, which should come as no surprise, as 50% of his starts this year have been disasters. He now faces one of the hottest teams in the league.
Jeremy Guthrie is the picture of consistent mediocrity but a trade back to the AL served him well. With KC: 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Guthrie is 10-7 this season with a 4.27 ERA and while he won't turn into a new pitcher at age 34, he remains a far better option at a short price than Kevin Correia does at any price. With a 93-mph fastball and four other pitches he uses at any time he's in position here to extend the Royals winning streak to eight. Value doesn’t always come in playing the dog. That applies here.
Greg Shaker
Seattle +140
Well I certainly do know that the Red Sox are the better team and even if I did not know that, all I would have to do would be to look at the betting line for tonight's game. Seattle has the better starter for tonight's contest yet he is a HUGE Dog. What up with that? I thought that Oddsmakers set lines based on the starting pitchers? Apparently not is this case. Lackey has been pretty solid this year, not so much lately and the word that I get is that John may have Konked out and maybe that is the reason the Sox gave up a lot to get Peavy. I think that was a terrible trade by Boston so don't get me started. I can't pronounce the Starter's name for the Mariners and that usually is good for us. He clearly is not being respected but this guy has been a BEAST. He carries a WHIP of 0.95, his team has won 14 out of 22 times he has started, and his K/BB Ratio is about as good as it gets. SUSHI! He did get smoked by Boston earlier this year and while some might say "Uh Oh" I say that this is extra motivation for tonight. Seattle Bats are much better following the break, especially verses RHP's and they are winning baseball games at a high rate lately. Bad spot for them yesterday following travel, much better spot tonight as they adjust to the Clam Chowder. This one Reeks of Value and I am going to play it.
Rocketman Sports
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Tampa Bay -154
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White Sox @ Indians - Over 7.5
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3 UNIT PLAYS
Yankees/ Dodgers Under 6: The Yankee offense continues to struggle, having scored just 3.4 rpg in their last 10 games and I don't feel they will get early that much off of the leagues ERA leader, Clayton Kershaw. Clayton comes in with a 1.96 ERA overall and 1.74 ERA at home. The Dodgers are just 6-6 in his home starts, cause they have averaged just 2.33 rpg for him at home. I guess the offense knows they don't have to score much, cause he won't give up much. Even if they tried to score to night they won't get much anyway vs Hiroki Kurodo, who has allowed just 2 ER's combined in his last 4 starts, posting an 0.69 ERA over that stretch. On the road this year hae has a 3.18 ERA and the Under is 9-1-1 in his 11 starts away from home. You can also expect a fully focused effort from Hiroki tonight as he will be facing his old team. He will also be facing a Ddgers team that is slowing down some offensively, having scored just 2.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Clayton's home starts have averaged just 5 rpg this year and I'm nt even sure these teams will get that much. A Pitcher's duel in LA tonight.
Pittsburgh/ St Louis Under 7: The Cardinal offense has really struggled of late and now they will be without their best hitter in Yadier Molina. Now they face Jeff Locke, who has been very solid for Pittsburgh this year. Jeff has a nice 2.56 ERA at home and a 2.28 ERA at night. Overall his ERA is just 2.15, but the Pirates are only 11-9 in those games and that's because they give him just 3.25 rpg worth of support.Overall this year, Jeff's games have averaged just 5.85 rpg, while his home starts have put up just 5.44 rpg and his night starts have averaged 5.62 rpg. Low scoring games all around when this guys is on the mound. Adam Wainright has struggled some with the Pirates, but this will be the first time he has faced them this year and he is pitching very good at the moment, with a 2.79 ERA in his last 7 starts, and he has a solid 3.00 ERA on the road this year. With their offense struggling so much and now missing Molina, you can expect a very good effort from Adam tonight, even vs a Pirate offense that has been hitting pretty good of late. This game has the feel of a classic pitcher's duel tonight on ESPN.