Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday July, 4

MTI Sports

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Rangers are 21-0 as a night favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and scored fewer than eight runs. Note that the Rangers are 21-0 on the RUN-LINE as they have won every single game by multiple runs. Note further that they are 14-0 in this spot THIS season. To really see how remarkable this trend is, consider that the Rangers were an average of PLUS-129 on the run-line over these 21 games ? making it 21 straight covers as a 129-dog. Consider the Rangers over the White Sox tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta fits a nice system that is 15-3 and plays on home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs while scoring 10 or more with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits. The Braves have won 6 of 7 at home vs the Cubs in July the past few years. The Braves have handled Wednesday fine going 8-4. The Cubs have been on the receiving end of Hump day losing 9 of 12 not a comfortable position. Even worse for the Cubs is the pitching match up. Atlanta has Delgado who has a decent 3.66 home era taking on P. Malholm a perennial road loser. This year he is 1-6 on the road with a 7.15 era. He has also lost his last 5 July road starts. With Delgado already beating the Cubs earlier in the year, and the power of the system we back the Braves here tonight.

David Chan

Rangers @ White Sox
PICK: Over 10

The Rangers' Scott Feldman (2-6, 6.13 ERA) is set to square off against the the White Sox' Dylan Axelrod (0-1, 4.50 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Feldman gave up four runs and nine hits over five frames in his team's 7-6 win over Oakland last Thursday; he had three strikeouts to go along with one walk. Feldman was anything but stellar though, and gave up three solo home runs. The big right-hander has been particularly ineffective on the road, going 1-3 with an 8.06 ERA.

Axelrod gave up two runs off six hits over seven frames in his team's 4-3 win over the Yanks on Thursday, earning a no decision for his effort; it was the right-handers third start since being pressed into the starting rotation because of injuries, and he finished with four strikeouts and issued three free-passes. Axelrod has been wildly mediocre so far, winless on the year, posting an unremarkable 6.23 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Two explosive offenses, with a couple of "gas cans" toeing the rubber; all signs point to a high-scoring affair!

Chris Elliott

Rangers @ White Sox
PICK: Over 10

The Texas Rangers will send right hander Scott Feldman to the mound Wednesday when they face off with the Chicago White Sox. Feldman has struggled mightily this year with a record of 2-6, an ERA of 6.13, WHIP of 1.53, and .288 BAA. He has made 14 appearances this season, 9 as a starter. In his last 4 starts he has allowed 12 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an ERA of 5.06. With Feldman on the hill, the "Over" has hit 6-1 in the last 7 games and 7-2 in the last 9 road games.

26 year old right hander Dylan Axelrod will toe the rubber for the White Sox Wednesday in game 2 of this 3 game set with Texas. Axelrod has made 5 appearances this season, 3 as a starter for Chicago, compiling a record of 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a .259 BAA. In the 3 starts that he has made, Axelrod has given up 9 runs in 16.2 innings of work for an ERA of 4.87. He has never started against the Texas Rangers in his career.

The Texas Rangers have the best record in MLB and its no surprise that they are at or near the top of almost all offensive categories. Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Napoli have all had great offensive seasons to date and were recently named as starters for the American League All Star squad.

The White Sox boast strong offensive threats in Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. They scorched the Rangers 19-2 last night! Look for the Sox bats to remain red hot against a weak starter in Feldman and I can guarantee you that the Rangers will be out for blood after being embarassed last night. Look for both offenses to be in full force in this game and take the "Over".

Marc Lawrence

Miami @ Milwaukee
PICK: Miami

The Marlins and Brewers celebrate the 4th of July at Miller Park Wednesday afternoon where Josh Johnson toes the slab for the Fish when he opposes Milwaukee's Randy Wolf. Johnson enters the fray knowing he has cashed in 11 of his last 14 team starts during July, posting a 2.82 ERA in this games. On the flip side, Wolf is 3-7 with a 5.13 ERA in his home career starts against the Marlins. With that look for Johnson to improve to 5-1 in his career team starts in this series here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Dave Cokin

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Chris Tillman is back for another big league trial with the Orioles. He arrives on a nice run of recent efforts at AAA, and the Mariners at Safeco are the ideal opponent. Hector Noesi can be pretty awful at times, so I'm going to tab the Orioles here.

Jim Feist

San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals
Pick: San Francisco Giants

Madison Bumgarner of the Giants is having a terrific season (10-4, 2.85 ERA) and is red hot, with a sparkling 1.96 ERA his last three starts. He faces a light hitting Washington team that is 3-7 in Edwin Jackson's last 10 starts. Jackson has a 6.46 ERA his last three starts, averaging just 5 innings. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarners last 6 starts, who has a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts. And the Giants are 18-8 in the last 26 meetings. Play the Giants!

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. Angels -108 over CLEVELAND

Anaheim has assembled one of the premiere starting rotations in baseball and Ervin Santana has been an instrumental proponent. Yet, after a strong 2011, Santana has struggled with consistency this season and his numbers paint an unattractive picture. However, looks can be deceiving. Santana's poor stats distract from solid and stable skills that will ultimately lead to improved results. An ugly ERA has ballooned, due largely in part to an unlucky and poor strand %. His xERA suggests he’s much closer to the pitcher he was in 2011 than the surface numbers indicate. His strikeout and groundball rates have not dipped, which indicates Santana is still talented enough to succeed as he has in the past. The bottom has hardly fallen out on this guy and now is the time to buy low. Derek Lowe has little chance to succeed. He has 31 BB and 33 K’s in 96 frames. His ERA of 4.42 is not far off his xERA of 4.51 and an even higher one over the past month at 4.82. Derek Lowe is on the final lap of his career and when you break this one down, we get a very playable price on the superior pitcher and team and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Halos are 16-5 over their past 21 road games. Play: L.A. Angels -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Scott Spreitzer

Angels / Indians Under 9.5

Neither of these teams hit well in the situation they're in today. LAA plates just 3 rpg in road day action against righthanders, while the Indians average just 3.9 rpg in home day action against righties. Ervin Santana has certainly taken a few lumps this season, but he has been pretty tough in 12 lifetime starts against the Indians, posting a 1.28 WHIP. He held Cleveland to 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone start against them in 2012. That start was one of five for the righty at Progressive, where he sports a solid 3.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .204 BAA in five career starts. The Tribe expects to counter with Derek Lowe who has a dominant 3.05 ERA & 1.20 WHIP in 31 lifetime appearances against the Halos, including 15 starts. Lowe owns a 2.64 ERA & 1.26 WHIP in 7 home starts this season and five of those outings have gone Under the posted total. The Angels head into this one on a 16-4-2 Under run when Santana is on the mound and the team is off a loss. They're 39-13-1 to the Under in their last 53 against the Indians. And finally, the Angels & Indians are on a 9-0 Under run when Santana toes the rubber. I'm playing the Under between the Angels & Indians on Wednesday.

Stephen Nover

NY Mets +115

The Phillies and Cliff Lee are road favorites in name only.

Philadelphia has lost six in a row. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven away matchups. Cliff Lee has yet to win this year. Lee is showing a lot of age. His ERA is 5.68 ERA during his last eight starts. He simply is not an elite pitcher anymore, yet is still being priced like one by the oddsmaker.

The Mets continue to be underrated. They are 5-1 in their last six games, batting .305 during this span. The Mets have beaten the Phillies 10 of the past 14 times.

Mets starter Chris Young has been getting better with each start as he returns from shoulder surgery. He held the Dodgers to two runs in 6 1/3 innings at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium this past Friday striking out six and not allowing a walk.

Being a flyball pitcher, Young is at his best when pitching in spacious ballparks. He thrived at Petco Park when he pitched for the Padres and is aided by the big dimensions at Citi Field, a pitcher's park.

Ed Meyer

SF Giants -106

Madison Bumgarner pitched a complete-game one-hitter in his last outing and the Giants won 5-0. The Giants, as a team, are terrific in this spot. At the beginning of the 2011 season, we had a trend in the archive that read, "The Giants are 11-0 (+3.4 rpg) since May 2010 when their starter went eight-plus innings and has a WHIP of one or less in his has start and they won by at least three runs. The Giants were 3-0 for us in 2011 and are 3-0 for us so far this season, moving them to 17-0 in this spot. It seems as if the entire squad gets "up" when their starter is off a terrific outing in which they won easily. Edwin Jackson allowed eight runs in three innings in his last outing and he has produced a team record of 0-9 following a start where he allowed at least six runs while striking out less than eight batters, losing by an average of 4.9 runs per game. Washington has improved, but they have lacked mental toughness after a big win in a series opener. The Nationals are 3-18 in the second game of a series after a five-plus run win in the opener. In their last eight, they are 0-8. In their last six, the Giants are a perfect 6-0 in the second game of a series when they lost the first by multiple runs - and all six games are from THIS season. Note that they were the favorite in only three of the six games. This is a nice price for the Giants in this spot.

FORECAST: San Francisco 5 WASHINGTON 3

Dave Essler

NY Mets +1.5 -145

This is just too much value for a hot home team not to pass up. I am aware of what Lee COULD do, but when you're hot you're hot and the Mets are getting ALL the timely hits these days. Three bullpen arms used up for the Phillies last night, and this is also a 1* Premium play for us as we go for four free ones in a row.

MLB Predictions

New York Mets +119

Last night's 11-1 victory for the Mets was their 5th win in 6 games, and was Philadelphia's 6th straight loss. The Phillies are now 36-46 on the season and 19-22 on the road. The Mets are 44-37 on the year and 24-17 at home. Tonight the Phillies will send Cliff Lee to the mound, who just hasn't been himself for most of this season. Lee is 0-5 on the year with a 4.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. His last start lasted only 4.2 innings giving up 10 hits and 6 earned runs. In June Lee went 0-3 with a 6.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and .311 opponents batting average. It is also interesting to note that over the past few years Lee hasn't performed as well in both road games and day games (slightly higher ERA than at home and night games). The Mets will turn to Chris Young who is coming off of a solid start where he went 6.1 innings giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs while striking out 6 and walking none. Young is 2-1 on the season with a 3.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .281 opponents batting average. Take note that the Phillies are just 3-10 in Cliff Lee's starts this season, while the Mets are 2-3 in Young's 5 starts. Philadelphia is just 8-21 in their last 29 games overall, and 0-6 in their last 6 divisional games. They are 0-5 in Lee's last 5 starts and 2-5 in his last 7 road starts. The Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win, and 5-2 in their last 7 home games. They are also 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. New York has taken 10 of these two teams last 14 meetings, and I think the wrong team is favored this afternoon. Take the Mets to win today.

St Louis Cardinals -1.5 +101

In game 1 of this series we took the Cardinals to win by 2 and they won 9-3. Last night we had the UNDER and saw a final score of 3-2 for another winning ticket. Tonight we hop right back on the Cardinals on the run line looking for our third straight winner in this series. The Rockies win last night puts them at 31-49 on the season and 13-24 on the year. The Cardinals are 42-39 on the year and 19-19 at home. Colorado will have Jeremy Guthrie back on the mound tonight. As a starter this season he is 3-6 with a 7.02 ERA ,1.83 WHIP, and .339 opponents batting average over 11 starts. In June batters hit .371 against Guthrie. The Cardinals hope that their starter Adam Wainwright can have a bounce back start after allowing 7 earned runs in his last start. Wainwright is 6-8 on the year with a 4.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .272 opponents batting average. Note that the Rockies are 7-19 in their last 26 overall, 3-7 in their last 10 road games, and 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win. They are also 1-5 in Guthrie's last 6 starts. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning % below .400, 39-16 in their last 55 games as a home favorite of -201 or higher, and 7-3 in their last 10 games vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. St Louis taken 9 of these two teams last 12 meetings, and given the pitching match up tonight I like the Cardinals on the run line getting plus money.

Chicago White Sox +113

The White Sox blew out the Rangers last night with a 19-2 victory. Chicago moved to a solid 43-37 on the season and 20-21 at home with the win, while the Rangers are now 50-31 overall and 23-16 on the road. Tonight's starter for Texas, Scott Feldman, hasn't had too much success this season. He is 2-6 with a 6.13 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .288 opponents batting average. On the road he is just 1-3 with a 8.06 ERA, and in June he went 2-3 with a 7.83 ERA. Dylan Axelrod has appeared in 5 games with 3 starts and is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .259 opponents batting average. His most recent start in New York going 7 innings allowed just 2 earned runs in a no decision was his best start of the year. Take note that although the Rangers have the best record in the AL they are just 3-6 in games that Feldman has started. The White Sox are 2-1 in games Axelford has started. The Rangers are just 2-5 in their last 7 vs AL Central opponents, and 1-5 in Feldman's last 6 road starts. The White Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 games overall, 4-1 in their last 5 home games, and 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. The White Sox have also beaten Texas in 4 of their last 5 meetings in Chicago. With the White Sox swinging the hot bats I like their chances at home against Feldman who has struggled all season.

Hollywood Sports

Padres at Diamondbacks
Play: Over

Arizona (39-41) lost Game Two of this series by a 9-5 score last night -- and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 5 runs in their last game. Installed as a 2:1 favorite here, the Diamondbacks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite of -201 or more. They send out Kennedy who is 6-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. Kennedy comes off a strong outing where he allowed only one earned run (three runs total) in 7 innings of work at Milwaukee. But the right-hander has been inconsistent most of the season -- and Arizona has played 4 straight games Over the Total when Kennedy was looking to follow up a Quality Start. Additionally, while Kennedy sports a 3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .253 opponent's batting average when on the road, these numbers rise to a 5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .307 opponent's batting average when at home in Chase Field. San Diego (32-50) counters with Marquis who is 1-4 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.36 since joining the Padres midway through the season. But when away from the spacious confines of Petco Park this year, Marquis has been saddled with a 6.84 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .320 opponent's batting average. The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the NL East. Take the Over in this one while listing both starting pitchers.