Michael Alexander
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
KANSAS CITY is 21-47 in their last 68 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150
TORONTO is 12-5 in their last 17 vs. American League Central.
TORONTO is 5-0 in Villanuevas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record
Ross King
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -1.5
Colrado is 0-6 the last 3 seasons as road underdog of +175 to +200.St.louis is 7-2 versus Colorado the last 3 seasons.Wainwright has an of 1.67 e.r.a in 4 starts versus Colorado while his opponent Guthrie can't decide if he is a starter or a bullpen pitcher.Take St.louis -1.5 runs to get the win here as your freeplay winner.
Tony Stoffo
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Baltimore Orioles
With Tillman back in the majors after another bunch of strong outings at AAA - I'M releasing a solid play on the orioles in this spot tonight. First off Tillman dominated the Mariners last season throwing 6 strong innings allowing just 1 run and 6 hits. So I definitely can see him shutting down this light hitting Seattle lineup here. While I can see the Orioles easily getting to the Seattle starter Hector Noesi in this spot. Noesi in his last 3 starts has allowed 13 runs, 23 hits including 4 homeruns, and 6 walks in only 17 innings pitched producing a 6.35 ERA and a 1.706 WHIP. So as you can see Baltimore is my top rated value play of the day.
Jack Jones
Rangers/White Sox OVER 10
The Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox exploded for a combined 21 runs last night. I know Chicago did most of the damage, scoring 19, but I believe the Rangers will get their bats going tonight. Also, look for the White Sox to stay hot at the plate against one of the worst starters in baseball.
Scott Feldman is 2-6 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in nine starts and five relief appearances this season. He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with an 8.83 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in four starts away from home. Dylan Axelrod is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in three starts and two relief outings for the Sox.
Feldman has given up a combined 10 runs over 14 innings in his last two starts against Chicago. The OVER is 10-1-3 in Rangers last 14 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 6-1 in Feldman's last 7 starts overall. The OVER is 17-8 in White Sox last 25 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets +110
The Philadelphia Phillies are a mess, as they have gotten old and injured overnight. The team everyone thought was the team to beat in the NL, and perhaps all of baseball, is floundering at 10 games below .500 as we head to the All-Star break. One of those aging pitchers appears to be Cliff Lee. Lee who was all but unhittable for stretches over the last 5+ years has become quite pedestrian or worse with his 4.03 ERA. Lee has been battered for 20 runs in his last 24.1 innings of work, allowing 35 hits in the process. This will be his last start before the All-Star break and he has yet to win a game. The Phillies are also just 3-10 in his 13 starts, so how that all adds up to a road favorite is beyond me. The Phillies are just 8-21 in their last 29 and have dropped seven straight on the road, and the Mets are killing sputtering offenses at 40-18 in their last 58 when facing a team that scored 2 or less in their previous contest. Play on the Mets.
CHRIS JORDAN
Here it comes, Philadelphia starter Cliff Lee is finally going to win a game. He is 0-5 with a 4.13 ERA and nobody has a clue what's going on with this guy. But I'm telling you today is the night he finally puts it together and pulls out a win, as I think he's going to shut down the New York Mets.
I realize the 2008 Cy Young Award victor has been roughed up in his last four trips to the hill, going 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA, and I know the Mets are on a bit of a run, but someone has to step up and help a Phils team that has lost six straight.
Quite honestly, the line on this game tells much of this story. I've given you the biggest facts in this game, and yet you see the Phillies and Lee are laying -130 to the Mets, who are hitting a rock solid .305 with eight home runs and 48 runs in their last six games, over which they're 5-1 after Tuesday's 11-1 rout.
On top of that, Mets starter Chris Young is in after a solid showing in last Thursday's 3-2 win at Los Angeles, where he allowed just two runs to the struggling Dodgers, while striking out six in 6-1/3 innings. And even though he's reached the seventh in each of his last three outings and is looking awfully good, the oddsmakers have Lee and Phils the favorite. I'm taking the road team in this one.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
SCOTT DELANEY
I want you playing the Houston Astros as my free winner, in Pittsburgh against the Pirates in a matinée game.
Houston came real close to end its losing skid last night, losing 8-7 to the Bucs after Drew Sutton hit a one-out solo home run in the bottom of the ninth to help the Pirates improved to eight games over .500 for the first time in 20 years.
But today the Astros are going to knock 'em back down to seven over, as they should be able to carry over the momentum from last night to pull out the win.
Yesterday the Pirates were forced to rally from deficits of 4-0 and 6-2. Today I don't see it happening. Streaks and slides are meant to be broken, so even though Houston has lost six straight and eight in a row on the road, I think this is a good spot for the 'Stros to catch a win.
3♦ HOUSTON
MATT RIVERS
Wednesday's free play is the Over in the Angels-Indians 4th of July matinee.
Fireworks going to be getting started early in this one, as Cleveland starter Derek Lowe has hit a rough stretch and appears to be a little gassed as we head into the final week of the first half of the season.
Lowe has been bombarded for a grand total of 54 hits and 33 earned runs (37 total runs) over his last 37 innings pitched...not pretty! Shockingly, only 5 of his last 8 starts have gone Over the total. With those kinds of numbers, I would have guessed that all 8 of those starts would have landed Over the price.
Ervin Santana counters, and his last 2 road starts have seen 12 runs allowed in under 10 innings pitched. HIs road ERA for the season is over 6, so there is a strong chance both the Indians and Angels will have their hitting shoes on for this late day affair.
The Angels are on a 7-1 Over run their last 8 games, including last night's Over. No chance this game stays low. Play the Over with Santana and Lowe getting lit up like roman candles.
3♦ OVER
Chuck O'Brien
Another matinée contest at Miller Park in Milwaukee, and after last night's game, I'm not sure the Miami Marlins will have any life left in them. Talk about taking the wind out of some sails.
Last night's 13-12 win marked the second straight game the Brewers won a one-run game over Miami, as they won the series-opener, 6-5. And I think Aramis Ramirez's two-out, two-run home run off Heath Bell in the bottom of the 10th inning last night might have ruined things for the Fish the rest of this series.
The Brewers have now won four straight overall, and 10 in a row over the Marlins.
The Brewers seemingly know how to get their bats going against Miami pitching, as they're averaging 6.1 runs during their 10-game winning streak in this series. And after last night's letdown, the Marlins have lost six in a row in Milwaukee when the two meet at Miller Park.
Don't worry about listing either pitcher today. I'm all about the Brewers winning this as a team.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
Here it comes, Philadelphia starter Cliff Lee is finally going to win a game. He is 0-5 with a 4.13 ERA and nobody has a clue what's going on with this guy. But I'm telling you today is the night he finally puts it together and pulls out a win, as I think he's going to shut down the New York Mets.
I realize the 2008 Cy Young Award victor has been roughed up in his last four trips to the hill, going 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA, and I know the Mets are on a bit of a run, but someone has to step up and help a Phils team that has lost six straight.
Quite honestly, the line on this game tells much of this story. I've given you the biggest facts in this game, and yet you see the Phillies and Lee are laying -130 to the Mets, who are hitting a rock solid .305 with eight home runs and 48 runs in their last six games, over which they're 5-1 after Tuesday's 11-1 rout.
On top of that, Mets starter Chris Young is in after a solid showing in last Thursday's 3-2 win at Los Angeles, where he allowed just two runs to the struggling Dodgers, while striking out six in 6-1/3 innings. And even though he's reached the seventh in each of his last three outings and is looking awfully good, the oddsmakers have Lee and Phils the favorite. I'm taking the road team in this one.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the New York Yankees.
David Price starts for the Rays and he has been good, going 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA. In his last three games, his 3-0 with an ERA of 2.57. He is even better at home with an ERA of 2.36.
The Rays have had the Yankees’ number at home, but Price has been especially tough against the Yankees. He has won six of his last seven starts against the Yankees.
David Phelps gets the spot start for the Yankees due to injuries to the starting staff. In two games in May, the Yankees lost both games and he failed to get out the fifth inning in both games.
You have the Rays’ ace against the Yankees spot starter. Not a fair match up. The Rays have won the first two games of this series and they will make it three in a row.
Take the Rays.
3♦ RAYS
Andrew Lange
Baltimore at Seattle
Play: Baltimore
I've been playing against Seattle Hector Noesi in some capacity for much of the season. Nearly every number I use to determine the true quality of a starting pitcher tells me that Noesi is one of the worst in baseball. His lone saving grace – at least on the surface – is a respectable 3.86 ERA at home. But take a look at his FIP and xFIP and you'll notice his performances at home aren't too far removed from what he's done on the road (7.42 ERA). Baltimore calls up Charles Tillman for a spot start. His career numbers are not very good (5.58 ERA in 180.2 IP) but he's simply not built to handle the rigors of the American League East every fifth day. He is however capable of showing up at Safeco and keeping the Mariners in check. I'm supporting the road side in this one.