BEN BURNS
Padres @ Nationals
PICK: Under 8.5
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This line has climbed from eight to 8.5. I feel that provides us with solid value on the 'under.'
For starters, note that even with yesterday's high-scoring result, the UNDER is still 11-5 in this series the past few seasons, including 6-2 the last eight.
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Garland checks in with a 3.16 ERA on the season. The UNDER is 10-7 in his 17 starts, including a profitable 6-2 on the road. He's got a stellar 2.04 ERA his last three starts. His last road start finished with a score of 2-1.
J.D. Martin has pitched a lot better than his 0-4 record indicates. In six starts, he has a respectable 3.37 ERA. The UNDER has gone 4-2 in those games, including 1-0 at home. For the season, he has 22 K's with just four walks. In his lone home start, he allowed one run through six complete innings. He had 6 K's and 0 walks.
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Both pitchers have also fared well against today's opponent. Martin has a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in three starts vs. the Padres. Two of those three games stayed below the total. Garland has a 3.60 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in five starts vs. the Nationals. Three of those games stayed below the total, including a 3-2 SD win on 5/30.
Washington relievers have a 2.72 ERA and 1.194 WHIP at home. Not to be outdone, San Diego relievers have a combined 2.70 ERA and 1.121 WHIP on the road.
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Given those stats and the fact that neither team is very talented offensively, its no big surprise to learn that the Padres have seen the UNDER go 24-10-3 on the road and that the Nats have seen the UNDER go 25-14-2 at home. Consider the UNDER.
Info Plays
3* on Texas Rangers -230
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Reasons the Rangers win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CLEVELAND) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 64-7 ML System hitting 90.1% over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Colby Lewis is 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.108 WHIP this season. Lewis is 4-1 with a 3.45 ERA at home. The Indians are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +201 or greater. The Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Texas is 10-3 in Lewis' last 13 home starts. Bet Texas at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
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WASHINGTON –1.02 over San Diego
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This one is all about playing against Jon Garland and his declining numbers. Garland is 8-5 with a very respectable 3.24 ERA and those surface stats make him look pretty good when in fact, he’s not even close. Back on May 14, Garland’s ERA was 1.88, so it’s risen about 1½ runs since then. In three of his last four starts he faced the Astros, Jays and Orioles and that trio is at the bottom of the rankings in terms of runs scored and team BA. Against Houston, Garland lasted five innings and surrendered three runs but he was very fortunate, as he walked six and could have easily surrendered closer to eight runs. He surrendered four runs to both Baltimore and the Jays and overall against those three he went just 16 innings, allowed 17 hits and 11 earned runs. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills and his chances of getting whacked triple when he’s not pitching at Petco. J.D. Martin is 0-4 but has a respectable 3.38 ERA and deserves better. Martin has elite control and that alone makes him worthy of some strong consideration here. He’s walked just four batters in 34 frames while striking out 22. He’s pitched mainly on the road but in his lone start at JFK, he went six innings and allowed just one run against the White Sox. Anyway, this one is more about playing against Garland and we’ll continue to play against him until he’s not overvalued. Play: Washington –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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Minnesota +1.00 over TORONTO
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Marc Rzepczynski makes his season debut here. He has some very decent career numbers that includes a 3.67 ERA to go along with a BAA of .225. Thing is, he’s only made 11 starts in the majors and has only pitched 60 innings. Rzepczynski was a candidate to make the rotation out of spring training before breaking the middle finger on his left hand near the end of camp and he hasn’t been the same since. His minor league numbers this season are ugly and they include a BAA of .314 and an ERA of 6.66 in nine starts. In one stretch in late May, Rzepczynski allowed 31 hits in 10.2 innings covering just three starts. The Twins are more dangerous against lefties and it’s also worth noting that the Jays are in freefall mode. Kevin Slowey is a risk for sure. He’s coming off a gem against the Tigers but prior to that he was rocked for 20 hits and 17 earned runs in his last 12.1 innings. However, the Jays keep making lousy pitchers look good, they’re just 1-8 over its last nine and they’re a favorite with a guy pitching that’s been struggling in the minors. Play: Minnesota +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Jones
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Padres/Nationals UNDER 8.5
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Two solid starters in Jone Garland and J.D. Martin go toe-to-toe tonight in what should be a pitcher's duel in Washington. Garland is 8-5 with a 3.16 ERA this season, including 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts. The UNDER is 10-7 in Garland's 17 starts this year, and 6-2 in his 8 road starts. Martin has been a victim of poor run support for Washington, because despite having a 3.37 ERA in 6 starts this year, he's sports and 0-4 record. The UNDER is 4-2 in his six starts.
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San Diego is scoring just 3.8 RPG on the road this season, with Washington putting up 4.0 RPG at home. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The UNDER is 24-10-3 in San Diego's 37 road games this season. The UNDER is 25-14-2 in Washington's 41 home games in 2010. Garland is 15-2 to the UNDER when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. Garland is 19-5 to the UNDER in all road games over the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games after one or more consecutive overs this season. The UNDER is 9-2 in Nationals last 11 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 6-0 in Martin's last 6 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
Jeff AlexanderJUST FOR YOU VIKESFAN
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1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +123
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Bottom Line: The Reds have already seen Niese this season, and they hit him hard. In 6 innings of work Niese gave up 4 runs on 12 hits, 2 of which were home runs. Considering the Reds are hitting .273 and scoring 5.0 runs per game against lefty starters, I like their chances against Niese again tonight. Arroyo has a good track record against the Mets. He's 6-2 lifetime with an ERA of 3.54. The Reds are 4-1 in Arroyo's last 5 starts vs. the Mets, 7-1 in his last 8 starts as an underdog and 6-1 in his last 7 road starts. The Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win while the Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Take Cincy.
Jeff Benton
Missed with Tuesday’s free play on the Marlins, but I’m still on a 99-68-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Wednesday, we’ll lay the reasonable price with Tim Lincecum and the Giants in Milwaukee.
San Francisco has taken the first two games of this four-game series by identical 6-1 scores, and that was with Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Even though Tim Lincecum lately hasn’t been the dominant Tim Lincecum we’re used to seeing, he’s still miles better than Sanchez and Bumgarner. And Lincecum has actually been a better pitcher on foreign turf this season (3-1, 2.94 ERA) than he has been at home (5-3, 3.59).
The two-time reigning N.L. Cy Young winner should have little trouble taming a Brewers’ lineup that has scored exactly one run in each of its last three games (all losses). In fact, Milwaukee has dropped seven of its last 11 games, scoring one or zero runs in five of its last seven.
As for Brewers starter Christopher Narveson, his 7-5 record is a bit of a fluke. He’s got a 5.29 ERA; he’s allowed 92 hits and 33 walks (125 baserunners) in 83 1/3 innings; he’s served up 10 home runs; and the Brewers have actually been outscored in his 13 starters.
The Giants are 6-2 when Lincecum pitches on the highway this season, and they’re on additional surges of 18-7 against the N.L. Central, 10-4 versus teams with a losing record and 5-1 when playing in Milwaukee. Conversely, the Brewers – in addition to their current three-game slide – have lost four of five against the N.L. West, four of five against winning teams and four of five at home. In fact, Milwaukee is now seven games under .500 (17-24) at Miller Park.
6♦ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Karl Garrett
Atlanta at PHILADELPHIA
G-Man scored with last night's freebie on the White Sox.
For Wednesday, go with the under in the Atlanta-Philadelphia contest.
Philadelphia's offense continues to slumber, and they are not likely to chase Braves starter Kris Medlen from this game, as Medlen has allowed only 2 runs to score in his last 13 innings of work.
His counterpart Jamie Moyer has only allowed 4 earned runs over his last 21 frames pitched, and Moyer is already 2-0 in his pair of starts against Atlanta this year and has gone 15 innings without allowing a run to the Bravos. Included is a 2-hit shutout back in early May in Philly.
The Braves are on a 2-6-2 under run their last 10 games, and 4 of the 5 series meetings this year in the City of Brotherly Love have stayed under the posted total.
Overall, 10 of the last 14 games between these division rivals at the Bank have stayed low.
This one stays low too.
4♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
L.A. Angels at CHI. WHITE SOX (-120)
Wednesday’s complimentary selection comes from the Windy City, as I’ll take the White Sox over the Angels.
Chicago has dominated the Angels in the first two games of this series, rolling 9-2 and 4-1. The Sox have now won three in a row and 21 of their last 27 overall, and they’re also 9-1 in their last 10 at U.S. Cellular Field. On top of that, they’re on positive runs of 11-2 as a favorite, 9-1 against winning teams and 5-1 versus the A.L. West.
Freddy Garcia gets the ball for the Pale Hose in this one, and while his ERA is mediocre at best (4.65), you can’t argue with the fact Chicago is 11-4 in his 15 starts, including 5-1 in his last six at home. Over his last seven trips to the mound, Garcia has allowed 19 runs in 46 2/3 innings (3.66 ERA), and Chicago is 7-0. And going back to 2005, Garcia has led the White Sox to six straight wins against the Angels (the veteran right-hander’s ERA over those six starts is 2.23).
Angels lefty Joe Saunders is coming off back-to-back strong performances (both at home against the Rockies and Royals). However, he’s just 6-8 on the season. Also, while the White Sox are rolling, the Angels have dropped four of their last five games and five of their last seven.
4♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees (-120) at OAKLAND
Nailed the FREE winner on Tuesday with the Cubs as they wiped out the D'Backs in Arizona. Tonight I have another one for you as I go with the Yankees on the road in Oakland.
The Yankees have absolutely dominated the A’s over the last few years and there’s no reason to believe anything will be different about tonight. I’m backing the Bronx Bombers with A.J. Burnett (6-7, 4.90 ERA) on the hill in this one.
New York has won 15 of the last 18 meetings and has already taken four of five this season, all in Oakland.
Burnett is looking to follow up on his great outing on Friday when he held the Blue Jays scoreless for 6.2 innings. He’d been ugly for five straight outings prior to that, but Friday’s start should give him the confidence boost he needs to come out here and beat the A’s.
Left-hander Gio Gonzalez (7-5, 3.50 ERA) is on the hill for the A’s and he’s already been roughed up by the Yankees once this year in Oakland. He gave up five runs in 4.1 innings of a 7-3 loss back on April 20.
The A’s have absolutely no confidence when they face the Yankees, and they are on slides of 4-11 as underdogs, 0-5 on Wednesday, 1-5 when Gonzalez is a home ‘dog and 2-7 when he faces a winning team.
The Yankees are 11-4 when Burnett starts the third game of a series, 6-1 on the road as a team, 45-16 on Wednesdays, 5-2 against southpaws, 51-23 against teams with losing records and 5-0 as road favorites.
New York has already taken the first two games of this series and I’m banking on Burnett to deliver a Game 3 winner as well. Back the Yankees in this one.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Brett Atkins
It's an easy free winner for you tonight as I go with the Mets at home to take care of business against the Reds.
Jon Niese (6-2, 3.62 ERA) is on the hill for the Mets tonight looking to follow up on that masterpiece Johan Santana threw on Tuesday when he blanked the Reds 3-0.
Niese is 3-1 at home this season with a 3.19 ERA and he shut out the Twins for six innings of a 6-0 Mets’ win back on June 27. The Mets are on streaks of 7-0 when he pitches at home, 24-8 at home as a team, 13-6 as home favorites and 12-4 at home against winning teams.
The Reds are just 6-13 on the road against left-handers and 9-22 against teams with a .600 winning percentage or better.
I’m backing the Mets with Niese on the hill in this one as this guy has been throwing the ball really well. Play New York.
3♦ N.Y. METS
Michael Cannon
Take the Pirates for the road win over the Astros.
I know Pittsburgh has had little success at Minute Maid Park, but the Buccos are actually playing decent ball right now.
The Pirates have won four out of their last five, including three of four from Philadelphia. They are getting good production from their core group of youngsters that were recently recalled from Triple-A, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker and tonight’s starter Brad Lincoln.
Lincoln is coming off his first major league win on Wednesday. The right-hander struck out six in seven shutout innings of the 2-0 win over the Cubs.
Houston lost three of four at San Diego despite a series in which its starters allowed just three earned runs in 25 2-3 innings.
Take the Pirates for the road win.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Joel Tyson
4 in a row for free after the Yankees came through on the Run Line on Tuesday!
For Wednesday, go with the Padres over the Nationals.
San Diego came up just a bit shy last night to snap their 3 game winning streak, but with Jon Garland sporting a 2-0 mark over his last 3 starts, and with the Padres still on a 14-4 run their last 18 games played at Washington, chances for a bounce-back win seem A-OK to me.
J.D. Martin is still looking for his first win of the year, and the Nats are still looking for their first win when Martin starts - 0-6 thus far!
Keep on looking Washington.
Take Diego.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Dave Cokin
Angels at White Sox
A long road trip for the Angels, a team that has lost 5 of 7 games. Injuries have been a big part of their first half and they appear to be running low on gas offensively, scoring 2 runs or less in 4 of those losses. Joe Saunders hasn’t found a groove this season, at 6-8 with a 4.59 ERA, with plenty of hits and walks allowed. Freddie Garcia of the White Sox has been strong, at 8-3 overall, plus a 3.60 ERA his last three starts. Play the White Sox.
INSIDER ANGLES
Veteran Brian Mohler has actually pitched well for the Houston Astros, and he should have his way with a pathetic Pittsburgh Pirates offense at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday night.
Moehler may be just 1-4 with a 5.20 ERA overall, but the fact is that he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts, and he allowed just four runs in the other outing. He recorded two Quality Starts in his last three outings vs. Pittsburgh last season, including a Complete Game where he allowed just one run and seven hits. Should Moehler be in need of relief here, he has the support of an improving Houston bullpen that has posted a 3.21 ERA the last 10 games.
The Pittsburgh offense has made worse pitchers than Mohler look like Cy Young this year, and we do not anticipate the Bucs suddenly getting well here. After all, the Pirates have scored the fewest runs in the Major Leagues at just 3.26 runs per game while batting only .237 as a team. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is hitting a pitiful .216 in the last 10 games,
Pirates starter Daniel McCutchen has basically been a gas can, going 1-3 with a hideous 8.87 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Yes, he is coming off of probably the best Major League start of his career where he limited the Phillies to only one earned run and six hits in 5.1 innings, but keep in mind that came vs. a makeshift lineup that was missing both Chase Utley and Placido Polanco.
Finally, the Pirates just might be the worst road team in baseball, as they are 11-32 on the road this year and a disgusting 17-61 in their last 78 road games overall. This makes Pittsburgh virtually an auto-fade whenever you can get the home team at a fairly modest price like this.
Pick: Houston Astros -125
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
5* graded play on Oakland as they take on the Ny Yankees set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the A’s will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 56-15 making 38.5 units since 2004. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. Burnett is not in a strong role either noting he is just 1-8 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. Yankees are also just 1-8 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. Gio Gonzalez is a strong starting pitcher, who we have followed for years. He has great stuff and is now starting to reach his potential. He has posted an amazing 0.46 ERA with a 1.118 WHIP over his last 3 starts. That is just 1 ER over his last 19.7 innings of work and with the Yankees really struggling offensively we fully expect another great outing from Gonzalez. take Oakland.