Cajun Sports
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8
The San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals square-off on Wednesday night in our nation’s capital. Washington will send J.D. Martin to the bump and he is 0-2 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against the Padres, and gave up four runs - one earned - and four hits in six innings of a 4 to 2 loss in San Diego on May 29. Jon Garland (8-5, 3.24 ERA) will get the start for the Padres and he pitched well in his last start against the Nationals, allowing two runs and five hits in seven innings. Against Houston on Thursday, Garland struggled with his command, yielding three runs, six hits and a season-worst six walks in a 6 to 3, 10-inning loss. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA in his last seven starts after going 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his previous seven. We expect Garland to bounce back with a solid outing tonight, which should help keep this one well below the posted total. Garland is 40-19 UNDER (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38% to 46%) since 1997 and 15-5 UNDER (+9.4 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Washington 12-3 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs, 31-18 UNDER (+10.7 Units) in night games and 11-2 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 5 or more consecutive home games this season. Play this one on the low side as both teams struggle to plate any runs.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Diego Padres –Washington Nationals UNDER 8
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The best hitting team in the league is without a doubt the Cincinnati Reds. They were shut out yesterday so expect for them to have huge bounceback day. They also have Arroyo going for them today and lately he has been great going 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts. Mets turn to Niese to start for them and he has been good so far this year but he usually only goes 6 innings and the NYM bullpen is no where near as reliable. The Mets don't even come close to have the ability at the plate as the Reds so expect close game early until NYM bullpen gets blown up.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +123
The Reds have already seen Niese this season, and they hit him hard. In 6 innings of work Niese gave up 4 runs on 12 hits, 2 of which were home runs. Considering the Reds are hitting .273 and scoring 5.0 runs per game against lefty starters, I like their chances against Niese again tonight. Arroyo has a good track record against the Mets. He's 6-2 lifetime with an ERA of 3.54. The Reds are 4-1 in Arroyo's last 5 starts vs. the Mets, 7-1 in his last 8 starts as an underdog and 6-1 in his last 7 road starts. The Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win while the Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Take Cincy.
Black Widow
1* on Houston Astros -120
We'll fade the Pirates, who have been one of the worst road teams in baseball for years, and this season has been no exception. The Pirates are 17-62 in their last 79 road games, including 11-33 on the road this year. Pittsburgh is 10-44 in their last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Astros are 11-3 in Brian Moehler's last 14 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Moehler has allowed 6 earned runs in 21.1 innings in his last 3 starts vs. Pittsburgh, all coming last year for a 2.53 ERA. Moehler has posted a 3.18 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 2 home starts this season, and he's 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Daniel McCutchen has been terrible for the Pirates, going 1-3 with an 8.87 ERA and 1.760 WHIP this season. McCutchen has surrendered 23 earned runs, 41 base runners and 7 home runs in 23.1 innings in 2010. Take the Astros on the Money Line
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Diego Padres -107
The Nationals are 0-6 in Martin's 6 starts this season. The Padres are 14-4 in their last 18 meetings in Washington, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 4-0 in Garland's last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Nationals are just 6-14 in their last 20 overall, 7-24 in their last 31 games as an underdog and 45-111 in their last 156 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Padres in this bounce back spot.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
When the White Sox lost 7-2 at home to the Tigers on June 8, the team was 24-33. Remarkably, last night's 4-1 win over the Angels was Chicago's 20th in its last 25 games and the 44-38 White Sox now trail the first-place Tigers by just one game and the second-place Twins by only a half-game in the AL Central. The Angels have cooled off at the beginning of July, as last night's loss was the team's FOURTH loss in its last five, having scored a measly SIX runs in the five losses. That doesn't bode well with the White Sox sending Freddy Garcia to the mound. Few pitchers have been hotter than Garcia recently, as he's 8-1 with a 4.26 ERA in his 11 starts since May 1 with the White Sox going 10-1 in those games. Add to that the fact that Garcia has 'owned' the Angels in his career. He's 14-3 with a 2.53 ERA all-time vs the Angels, with his teams going 19-7 in his 26 starts. Regulars know I'm a big fan of LA's Joe Saunders and while he's 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in four career outings at U.S. Cellular Field (plus owns a 3.35 road ERA in 2010, compared to a 5.49 ERA in Anaheim), Saunders "just doesn't seem right" this season. Anyway, I have NO interest in bucking the red-hot Garcia. Take the White Sox.
Dan Bebe
CWS (-118) vs ANA
White Sox for the sweep!
I really like this game, and you can see why in Today's Blog.
Quickly, to summarize, the White Sox are just making the key plays. They're turning the double plays on defense, they're not kicking balls around defensively, they're making the big pitches, and they have a back end of a bullpen that is nearly untouchable right now from the 7th inning on, with Putz, Thornton and Jenks.
I will admit, I thought the Angels would bounce back, yesterday, but they just never mounted any sort of attack, and it's clear that this team is in a deep offensive slump. They got guys on base with some sort of frequency, but when Tony Pena shuts you down for 4+ innings, you know something's amiss.
Today, the White Sox turn to big Freddy Garcia, a model of consistency all season long. He has a tremendous track record against the Angels dating way back, and while Joe Saunders has actually pitched well enough against the White Sox, it's not going to be nearly enough.
Saunders is going to get touched up for a few runs, and given the bullpen edge the White Sox carry with those 3 unhittable arms, even if this one is close late, we're in the catbird seat.
Play the Sox to complete the sweep!
Sac Lawson
HOU (-123) vs PIT
I know a lot of folks will ride Houston here just to straight fade Daniel McCutchen, a guy who has definitely struggled this year, especially on the road. Believe it or not, this play, for me, has little to do with McCutchen.
Don't get me wrong, when it comes to backing Houston, you've gotta have a situation where they are the home team, and they're facing a guy that struggles on the road. Because Houston's big issue is scoring runs, simple as that. So... we've got a recipe for some offensive success, but this play is more about my faith in Moehler.
Brian Moehler is definitely not getting any younger, and I'm not going to be THAT guy that tells you his stuff is still electric. But, the guy has sticky fingers and a rubber arm, he's not overpowering, but he's crafty. The Pirates lineup is extremely young, and often times I'd rather have a guy with tons of movement that works all parts of the zone, than a guy that tries to overpower the younger hitters. Moehler is a great matchup against the youth of the Pirates, and the fact that the Pirates simply cannot find ways to win on the road (unless it's against the Cubs) just adds to the likelihood of a good outing from Moehler.
First look, I had to circle Moehler as a veteran that has the TYPE of stuff to give Pitt trouble. Looking more into it, there's no reason to go away from that initial feeling. Let's take Houston as a 1 unit freebie in a matchup of equal bullpens where the home team has the starting pitcher advantage!
FLA (-115) vs LOS
At this point, it'd be a blatant lie for someone to say that the market has caught up to Josh Johnson's success, and that's what this is about. The guy has given up 7 total runs in his last 10 starts, stretching over 8 weeks, and 71 innings. Those are astronomical numbers, and for any other big name he'd be -200 or more in every single start. Even in this start against a team like the Dodgers, most aces would be in the -140 range. Simply put, there is value on Josh Johnson still.
With his form lately, I have no reason to believe he will give up more than 2 runs in 7 strong. Sure, it could happen, but I'd rather continue to ride his streak than predict when he'll come off it. Kuroda, no doubt, is having a great year. But he's not a guy with overpowering stuff, and he's not a guy with crazy movement. He's simply going to hit his spots and move through lineups. I give Johnson a 1-2 run edge here, long story short.
I'm definitely concerned with the fact that Kuo and Broxton are fully available for the Dodgers tonight, no doubt the Marlins won't be scoring much late. That is exactly why this is just a 1 unit play. But at the end of the day, I do have faith in the Marlins pen when it comes to the 8th and 9th innings, it's the middle relief where they have their struggles.
At this point, i truly feel like it's worth riding Johnson until either the market corrects by 30 cents, or until he cools off. Not often I'd recommend taking the lesser bullpen against the Dodgers at home, but that's how good Johnson looks right now.
O.C. Dooley
Orioles / Tigers Under 9.5
The initial pair of games in this series have produced a grand total of 33 runs and 61 hits. On Monday neither starting pitcher made it out of the second inning, while last night’s affair stretched to 11 innings. The bottom line is that both exhausted bullpens desperately need a break tonight and we have a pair of starters who have the ability go deep into the contest. Ever since returning from a brief minor league demotion Detroit’s Max Scherzer in 7 assignments has posted an excellent ERA (2.62) and has also been overpowering the opposition with a grand total of 56 different STRIKEOUT victims. Like the rest of the Tigers who have one of baseball’s best HOME records this campaign, Scherzer has done some of his best work at Comerica Park where he is attempting to win a 5th consecutive decision. Even though he has been battered for most of this campaign, Baltimore’s Brad Bergeson is coming off a decent outing where he gave up only 3 earned runs. Here is a 76-PERCENT SYSTEM (47-15 past five years with a posted total of between 8’-and-10 runs) which plays road teams like Baltimore with a “cold” pitcher with a 7+ ERA in a five-start span UNDER the total after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4+ earned runs