Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday June, 13

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox and Marlins put the wraps on a three-game Interleague series Wednesday night when Felix Doubrant opposes Ricky Nolasco at Marlins Park. Doubrant enters the contest in great KW form with 19 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts knowing he is 5-1 away with a 3.31 ERA this season. On the flip side, Nolasco continues to struggle at home where he has dropped 13 of his last 20 team starts, including 0-5 with a 5.22 ERA in his last five June home team starts. That makes the Red Sox a live dog in tonight's fray and we'll bite. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Brian Matusz is the weak link in the Baltimore rotation, allowing more hits than innings pitched and walking 30 in 65 innings, a terrible ratio. He has a 4.82 ERA and is getting worse, walking 11 in his last three starts (15 innings). He's a southpaw and the Pirates are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record and 3-9 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Pirates.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners fit a solid system here that is 11-2 and plays on home favorites off a home favored loss at -140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent like the Padres that are off a road dog win at +140 or higher and scored 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base. The Padres are 7-21 on the road this season and 2-12 as a road dog from +125 to +150 so we cant back them to get 2 straight road dog wins vs Seattle. The Padres have J. Marquis going and he has a 9.94 road era which Makes Noesi and his 3.62 home era look very good. Take Seattle tonight.

Chris Elliott

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Detroit Tigers

Right hander Rick Porcello takes to the hill on Wednesday night for the Detroit Tigers. With a record of 28-33, the Tigers have been a huge disappointment in the AL Central. Porcello is 3-4 on the season with a 5.03 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and .307 BAA. The Tigers are 4-4 in Porcello's last 8 starts with Porcello posting a respectable ERA of 4.31. Despite losing the opening game of this series on Tuesday, Detroit has recent success over the Cubs winning 8 of the last 11 meetings between the two.

Matt Garza will get the start in this one for the Chicago Cubs (21-40). Garza has been decent this year for a tragic Cubs team, with a record of 2-4, 3.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .218 BAA. In his last 6 outings, Garza has a record of 0-3 and an ERA of 5.48 with the Cubs losing all 6 games! Garza has put up solid numbers in his career with a lifetime record of 54-58, 3.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .249 BAA. In 2012, Garza has been the victim of being a good starter on a very poor team.

Wrigley Field can be a hitters paradise or a hitters nightmare depending on the wind on any given day. If the Cubs have an advantage with pitching in this one, the Tigers most certainly have the advantage with the offense. Detroit has two of the premier hitters in the game today with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Meanwhile Chicago will rely on an aging but effective Alfonso Soriano and hard hitting 29 year old Bryan LaHair. I like the Tigers as the "Underdog" in this one, take the Tigers to win.

Bryan Power

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

With a shocking 11-7 loss to the Twins yesterday, the situation in Philadelphia is growing more dire by the day. The Phillies are now five games below .500 and in last place in the National League East, 9.5 games back of first place Washington. June has particularly been a disappointment with the club having lost 9 of its last 10. Losing to a team like Minnesota has to represent a new low. However, I see them getting back on track tonight behind Cole Hamels - at a real bargain of a price to boot!

Hamels has yet to lose on the road this season (five starts), going 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA. He has been subpar over his last three starts overall, but still has a 18-6 team start record when the money line is -100 to -150, including 15-2 on the road dating back to 2011.

Twins starter PJ Walters does not come in with the same pedigree nor resume. He has a 6.46 ERA over his last three starts. Despite allowing a total of nine runs his last two starts, Walters has not made it past the fifth inning in either. Somehow the team has won both. He's due to lose while Philly is due to win.

Dave Cokin

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins
Pick: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox were my best bet on Monday and while they still aren't hitting, they managed to finally get a win. I see them with a good shot again here as Doubront duels Nolasco, and I'll side with Boston to best the Marlins tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +142 over TAMPA BAY

David Price has added a sinking fastball this season. His surface stats (2.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and skills both remain elite. Price’s GB% has grown by 8% to 52%, meaning he's now part of the small group of starters that have a legit chance at winning the Cy Young award. However, R.A. Dickey and the Mets have been a lethal combination with New York winning the past seven games that Dickey has started. Overall, he’s 9-1 with a 2.44 ERA and a decreasing WHIP that now stands at an elite 1.04. Dickey has 46 K’s and four walks over his past 36.2 innings, covering his last five starts. This knuckleballer is so difficult to hit and when batters do make contact, it’s usually a grounder, as he has a 51% groundball rate and one of the lowest line-drive rates in the majors at 19%. The Mets came in here last night with the NL’s best road BA and promptly whacked this host 11-2. A ridiculous tag on the game’s hottest pitcher easily dictates this wager. Play: N.Y. Mets +142 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +104 over MIAMI

Ricky Nolasco is posting the worst skills of his career with a mediocre strikeout rate and a 4.23 xERA . He’ll now face a Boston offense that ranks 3rd in the league in runs scored. The Marlins have lost four of Nolasco’s past six starts. At home, the righty is 2-3 with a 5.56 ERA. The Fish have lost seven of their past 10 overall. Meanwhile, Felix Doubront has surprisingly emerged as Boston’s most reliable starter this season. He has 72 k’s in 67 frames and his 3.47 xERA is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA. Neither his hit % or strand % is wildly out of whack, he has a groundball bias profile and he’s 4-1 on the road with a 3.36 ERA. Doubront's modest success is supported by his skills, allowing us to confidently step in against a laboring Marlins club. Play: Boston +104 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Portugal -111 over Denmark

Denmark managed to cause the biggest upset of the first round when they edged out the Netherlands. Lady luck was smiling on the Danes, as they scored on their only clear cut scoring opportunity of the entire game. A win is a win though and now they face a desperate Portugal side eager to collect three points. Portugal hung with Germany at 0-0 until the 72nd minute when Germany scored off a Mario Gomez header. Portugal looked dangerous as they tried for the equalizer but to no avail. Portugal has a solid defensive core and more options in attack for this contest. Look for Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Nani to kick-start Portugal with a victory over the lucky Danes. Play: Portugal -111 (Risking 2 units to win 1.82).

Netherlands vs Germany over 2½ +100

The Netherlands are really behind the eight ball after losing to Denmark. After an ice cold offensive display they now face a German team who played a solid game versus Portugal. Expect a bounce back performance, as the Netherlands are too deep to lay an egg in back-to-back contests. Germany can smell blood and know they can knock Holland out of the tournament with a win. Germany should be loose with a win under their belts and will be a threat to score. The Netherlands have no choice but to eventually take risks offensively and as a result we expect a wide-open affair with plenty of goals. Play: Netherlands/Germany over 2½ (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Yankees have won the first two games of this series to make it five straight victories and are now in sole possession of first place in the American League East. They are 10-2 over their last 12 games which is their best stretch of the season and they have improved to 17-13 on the road for the year. Because of the run, we are getting some good value in going against New York and despite the solid streak, the Yankees are just 4-9 in their last 13 games as a road underdog. It has been a season of streaks for the Braves, especially of late as they lost eight straight games but followed that up with an 8-1 record over their next nine games before losing their last three games heading into this series finale. The last three defeats dropped them to an even .500 at home. Atlanta has been hitting the ball well at home but the pitching has been a concern but this is a good spot as Atlanta is 48-22 in its last 70 games as a home favorite of less than -150. Tim Hudson has had an up and down start to the season but overall has been pretty solid. He has a 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through eight starts and he is coming off his best start of the season as he tossed a five-hit shutout at Miami. He has been part of the issue with the poor pitching at home as only one of his four starts have been quality outings but the Braves are still 3-1 in those games and going back to last season, they are 12-3 in Hudson's last 15 starts as a home favorite. The Yankees counter with Hiroki Kuroda and after a rough beginning to the season, he has turned things around. He was a big offseason pickup and it is paying dividends now as he has dropped his ERA to 3.46 through 12 starts after putting up three straight quality starts where he allowed just two runs over 22 innings. Two of those came on the road but New York won just one of those and it is 1-5 in his six road starts. Meanwhile the Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 Interleague games against right-handed starters.

Andrew Lange

Cleveland at Cincinnati
Play: Over 9

It is very hard to trust Cincinnati's Mat Latos at home against an American League lineup. Latos' transition from the weak-hitting, pitcher-friendly National League West has not been a smooth one. His fly ball ways (126-86 ratio) and tendency to challenge hitters up in the zone have resulted in a 4.85 ERA including 11 home runs allowed in 43.2 innings at Great American Ball Park. He's also had a tough time with lefties – something Cleveland has a lot of – with a .962 OPS. Derek Lowe has returned to earth with two of his last three starts being of disastrous variety. His groundball ways are a good thing to have in this ball park but with only 24 strikeouts in 72.2 innings, a lot of balls will be put in play tonight and any mistakes will be magnified due to the short porch in right field. Note that in four career starts at the GAP, Lowe's ERA is 5.09. Total certainly reflective of the mediocrity on the mound but still at a price worthy of a play.

MLB Predictions

Washington Nationals -135

The Washington Nationals have won the first two against the Blue Jays and look for their second straight sweep of an AL East team this afternoon with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. The Nationals have improved to 37-23 on the year and 19-13 on the road, while the Jays have fallen to 31-31 and 16-14 at home. Strasburg is 7-1 on the year with a 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .215 opponents batting average. He is 4-0 on the road with a 2.19 ERA, and the Nats are 10-2 when he starts a ball game. Toronto will go with Kyle Drabek this afternoon who is 4-6 on the year with a 4.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .241 opponents batting average. Drabek was walked 45 batters on the year and struck out only one more at 46, while Strasburg has struck out 92 and walked just 19. The Blue Jays are 5-7 in games where Drabek has taken the mound, and 2-7 in his lsat 9 starts. This line has moved since I sent it out, but I still like it up to -150. Take the Nats.

New York Mets +152

The Mets took the first game of this three game interleague set with an 11-2 victory as about the same size underdogs. New York improved to 33-29 with the victory while the Rays are sitting at 35-26 on the season. The Mets will have R.A. Dickey on the mound tonight to square off against David Price. Dickey is 9-1 on the season with a 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .225 opponents batting average. Over his last 9 starts he is 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA, and he has gone three straight starts allowing 0 earned runs against where he worked 7+ innings in each and struck out at least 8 batters in each. He has been lights out as of late to say the least. Price is 8-3 on the season with a 2.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .236 opponents average. He too has been stellar, especially at home this season. Take note that the Mets are 7-0 in Dickey's last 7 starts and 10-4 in his last 14 road starts. Tampa Bay is just 2-5 in their last 7 home games and 1-4 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. With the way Dickey has been pitching lately and the Mets putting up 11 runs yesterday I love this generous underdog line. Again this line moved over night but I still like where it is at right now. Take the Mets to win.

Hollywood Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5

Texas (36-26) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-1 score -- but they have then lost 10 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to two runs or less. The Rangers send out Harrison in this spot who is 8-3 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander owns a 3.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .240 opponent's batting average on the road, he sees these numbers rise to a 4.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .301 opponent's batting average when at home. Furthermore, Arizona (30-31) has won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have also won 4 of their last 5 games against American League clubs. They send Miley to the mound who is 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been better on the road with his 2.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .222 opponent's batting average as compared to his 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .228 opponent's batting average when at home. Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Miley pitching as an underdog. Additionally, Miley scattered only three hits and one run in 8 innings of work in his last start against Colorado -- and the Diamondbacks have then won 8 of their last 9 games where Miley was looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should pitch very well against a Rangers team that has now lost 5 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Of course, these team trends all assume straight-up wins and losses. With Texas being a big favorite in the -160 range, I recommend taking the Diamondbacks with the Run-Line to receive the extra-benefit of the +1.5 runs -- and Texas falls into an empirical "play-against" angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. Harrison owns a sizzling 0.80 WHIP over his last three starts -- but home favorites with a bullpen WHIP of 3.75 or less (Texas bullpen: 2.80 ERA) using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or less over his last three starts have then failed to cover the 1.5 Run-Line in 191 of the last 291 situations where these conditions applied. Take Arizona plus the 1.5 Run-Line in this one while listing both starting pitchers.

Joe D'Amico

New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: New York Yankees

New York has taken over the top spot in the AL East by wining 5 in a row and 8 of their L9 overall. In their current win streak, the Yankees are outscoring foes by an average of 3.2 RPG. The Bronx Bombers rank among the top teams in the RPG (4.75), team BA (.264), OPS (.795), and HRs (95). Hiroki Kuroda gets the start today. The RH is 5-6 but boasts a 2-0, 0.82 record in his L3 starts. In his career, Kuroda holds an ERA of 2.10 vs. Atlanta. The Braves have dropped 3 straight by a combined 21-8. They are now 4 GB of the Nationals in the NL East. Neither their hitting nor their pitching has been anything but mediocre. Today, Tim Hudson gets the nod. The RH has a home ERA of 5.92 this year. The Yankees are 4-0 their L4 games played at the Braves, 39-16 their L55 Interleague games, and 5-0 their L5 games played vs. RH starters. The Braves are 3-7 their L10 games played as a favorite of -110 to -150, 2-9 their L11 games following a loss, and 5-16 in Hudsons L21 Interleague starts. Take New York.

Ross King

New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: New York Yankees

New York is currently 9-2 in June and currently 19-10 versus teams with a winning record.NY Yankees have the best interleauge record in history and go for their 6th straight win and look to sweep Atlanta.A Rod is the best rbi man in interleauge play and Derek Jeter is the best hits and runs scored player in interleauge.Take New York to sweep Atlanta as your freeplay winner.