Rocketman
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Detroit is allowing 5.1 runs per game their past seven games overall and 5.2 runs per game at night this year. Rick Porcello takes the mound for the Tigers where he is 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA overall this year. Matt Garza toes the rubber for the Cubs where he is 1-0 with a 1.91 ERA at home this season in 4 starts. Detroit is 22-46 last 68 inter-league games when they are an underdog. Detroit is 1-5 last 6 inter-league road games vs a team with a losing record. Cubs have won 4 in a row at home heading into tonight. Cubs are 5-2 last 7 home games when Garza starts. Garza has been strong at home and should continue that tonight while the Cubs should be able to put up enough runs off Porcello to seal the victory. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Arizona/ Texas Under 10: Last night I had a push on this play, but hoping for the win in this one. Matt Harrison has pitched really well for the Rangers, with a 3.87 ERA overall and 1.90 ERA in his last 3 starts, plus a very nice 2.34 ERA in 7 night starts this year. Matt does have a 4.45 ERA at home, but his home starts have averaged just 7.6 rpg. Last night the D-Backs had just 1 hit till the 7thing inning and they scored just 1 run in that game. for the year this team hits just .241 and scores just 3.8 rpg on the road. Texas comes in averaging 5.67 rpg at home on the year, but let's break this down for a moment. Texas absolutely Kills right handed pitching at home as they hit .303 and score 7.04 rp/9 off of them in this park, but vs southpaws at home they have an average of just .239 and score just 3.7 rp/9 of of them. Wade Miley has been a solid lefty this year, with a 2.53 ERA in 9 starts overall and a 2.23 ERA in 5 road starts. His WHIP's have also been impressive at 1.09 overall and 1.05 on the road, while his road starts have averaged just 7.4 rpg. The Under is 4-3 in Texas games with 2 lefties on the mound and 8-4-1 in Arizona games with two lefties. This one will struggle to reach 7 or 8 runs.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY Mets/ Tampa Bay Over 7: On one hand I hope the law of averages works in my favor, but on the other hand i hope it doesn't screw me as well. Let me explain. R.A. Dickey hasn't allowed an ER in his last 3 starts and one would think that that will not continue much longer. He does have a 1.24 ERA in his last 7 starts, but also a 3.58 ERA on the road this year, with his road starts averaging 9.2 rpg. For Tampa bay the will send out David Price who comes in with a .93 ERA in his last 3 starts and a .96 ERA at home this year and I do not expect him to keep that up this year. He is due to be hit a bit, especially since he has thrown 109+ pitches in each of his last 4 starts. Despite his low home ERA, his home starts have still averaged 7 rpg, thanks mainly to an offense that puts up 5 rpg for him at home, while overall they score 4 rpg at home. The Mets score very well on the road at 4.74 rpg and they do hit lefties at a .254 clip away from home. Now for the part where i hop the law of averages DON'T catch up. Met games vs lefties have gone 18-2-1 to the Over this year, including a 10-0-1 Over mark on the road. I know that must end sometime. Im just hoping not tonight. I do feel that both pitchers are due to be hit and in a game where we need just 3 runs each to at least get a push i'll take a solid shot at the Over here.
NY Yanks/ Atlanta Over 8: Tim Hudson is getting up there in age and for the past year plus it has shown some when he comes off a high pitch count game. Dating back to the beginning of 2011 Tim has mad 41 starts and he has a 3.34 ERA overall in those starts, but he has an ERA a full point higher (4.36) in the 15 starts he has coming off a game in which he threw 100+ pitches ( I did a little work on that one. LOL). He has one start this year off a game in which he threw 108 pitches and he allowed 5 ER's in just 5.2 innings of work in that game. Tim has a 3.83 ERA overall, but a 5.92 ERA at home and he has allowed 12 ER's in his last 2 home starts. The Yankee hitters should be able to tag him for a few in this one and then once Tim is out he will turn the ball over to a pen that has a 5.224 ERA at home. Hiroki Kuroda has a nice 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a 4.17 ERA on the road this year and a 4.40 ERA at night. The Braves offense has been good at home this year Averaging 4.9 rpg and should be good for a few off of Hiroki. NY Road games have averaged 9.2 rpg, while Brave home games have put up 10.1 rpg. I see at least 10 in this game.
Steve Janus
New York Yankees +101
The Yankees have won 5 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. There is no way I'm passing up on New York as underdog on Wednesday. The Yankees will send out one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Hiroki Kuroda, who is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.682 WHIP in his last three starts. Kuroda has allowed a total of 2 earned runs and 12 hits during this stretch.
One of the big reasons we catch the Yankees at such a good price, is the fact that Atlanta will send out Tim Hudson after he just threw a complete game shutout in his last start. That's not enough to get me to bite on Atlanta. Hudson allowed 12 runs on 14 hits in his previous two starts and is supporting a lofty 5.92 ERA in four starts at home.
New York is 39-16 in their last 55 interleague games, 6-1 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds -139
The Indians have lost 10 of their last 14 in Cincinnati and can't be trusted on the road with Lowe on the mound. He has a road ERA of 6.48 on the season and an ERA of 10.29 over his last 3 starts. Those number make Latos' 4.12 home ERA look pretty good. The Reds are 4-0 in Latos' last 4 starts and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Take Cincy.
Black Widow
Texas Rangers -159
Rarely do I ever lay this much juice, but the Texas Rangers are worth it tonight at home with red-hot starter Matt Harrison on the mound. Texas will try to win its third in a row overall with Harrison (8-3, 3.87 ERA) looking to build on his third career shutout - Friday's 5-0 victory over San Francisco. The left-hander did not walk a batter, allowed five hits and lowered his ERA to 1.76 during a four-start winning streak. Texas is 74-32 (+25.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 24-55 in their last 79 interleague games as an underdog. Arizona is 27-57 in their last 84 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 23-8 in Harrison's last 31 starts. Texas is 14-3 in Harrison's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Texas. Take the Rangers on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
Mets/Rays UNDER 7
I fully expect a pitcher's duel tonight in Game 2 of this series between the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays. R.A. Dickey and David Price have been two of the best starters in the league this season, especially of late.
Dickey is 9-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 12 starts this season. The knuckleballer has been untouchable of late, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.719 WHIP in his last three starts, not allowing a single earned run over 23 2/3 innings.
Price is 8-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 12 starts this year. The left-hander is 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.903 WHIP in five home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA in his last three outings. Those three have come against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles where he has given up just two earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 6-0 in Dickey's last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The UNDER is 86-41-8 in Rays last 135 home games, including 42-15-4 in Rays last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 34-14-3 in Price's last 51 home starts. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
Freddy Wills
New York Yankees +106
The Yankees as under dogs? I'll take it especially since Hiroki Kuroda has turned his season around with an ERA of 3.46 while posting a 2-1 record and 0.68 WHIP with a 0.82 ERA over his last three starts combined. Kuroda has been on fire and to see him as an under dog against a Braves team he feasted on with quality starts in all 5 of his career starts while posting a 2.23 ERA is kind of surprising. The Braves hitters own 76 AB and only a .619 OPS against him. Kuroda has been pretty consistent in his career with a 3.36 ERA on the road over the last three years and an ERA of 3.05 in June. Tim Hudson has great stats too, but he has not been quite as consistent of late or against the Yankees.
First of all he has not faced the Yankees since 2006, but the Yankee hitters own a .790 OPS in 163 AB which is more than the Braves can say against Hiroki Kuroda. Hudson has also struggled for whatever reason at home as he posts a 5.92 ERA in 4 home starts this season
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia Phillies -150
Look for the Phillies to end their 3-game skid behind a gem from Cole Hamels. The Phillies have won 9 of his last 11 starts overall. Plus, they are 6-0 in hi last 6 road starts, 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. He has a brilliant 2.50 road ERA through 5 road starts this season while Minnesota's P.J. Walters is carrying a 4.76 home ERA through 3 home starts. Taking the Phillies in this price range has been solid as they are 21-8 in their last 29 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 35-16 in their last 51 games overall as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 19-42 in their last 61 home games, 14-40 in their last 54 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 6-22 in their last 28 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Phillies.
Jeff Alexander
SF Giants -1.5 +126
The Giants get the call as our free play this evening considering the advantage they have on the hill with Cain. The Giants have won each of Cain's last 7 starts with those wins coming by an average of 2.1 runs. The Astros, meanwhile, have lost each of Happ's last 3 starts with those losses coming by 4, 3 and 12 runs. The Astros are just 3-17 in Happ's starter against teams with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 6.5 to 3.2. They are even 0-10 over the last 2 seasons in his road starts vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. They have lost these games by an average score of 4.8 to 2.0. Take the Giants on the run line.