Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 16,2010

Jim Feist

Rangers at Marlins
Pick: Under

The Texas Rangers lose the DH for this Interleague game. They are also playing a large, pitcher friendly park in Florida. A pair of very good starters are on the hill, too. Texas righty Tommy Hunter has a 1.80 ERA with few walks and the Marlins have never faced him. Florida starter Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.36 ERA) also has above average stuff and the Rangers have never faced him. Look for a defensive battle, play the Rangers/Marlins Under the total.

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Florida Marlins

The Marlins give the ball to Anibal Sanchez in Game Two of a three game set with the Rangers in this Interleague matchup at Sun Life Stadium this evening. Sanchez is on a nice roll of late, winning five of his last six team starts with a 2.73 ERA in his last six starts. With Sanchez 3-1 in his career team starts during the month of June, we'll go fishing in Florida tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida.

MTi Sports
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Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The White Sox are 0-13 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series. Historically, the Pirates are the most profitable team in the entire league as a home dog when they scored two or fewer runs in their starter?s last start. Pittsburgh is 51-44 in this situation, producing 19.75 net games of profit. Finally, The White Sox are 0-5 when John Danks starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start. Pittsburgh is worth a shot here.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

It is rare for me to play favorites, even small favorites like this, but there is tremendous value on the Dodgers here. Los Angeles blew away the Reds last night 12-0 and that now makes it 13 wins in the last 16 meetings in this series. The Dodgers were slight favorites last night as well and they have the same caliber starter going tonight and the angle that plays against the Reds is even stronger. Cincinnati is just 3-5 on its current homestand and it has now fallen into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the National League Central. The pitching is turning into a problem and while the top starter goes tonight for the Reds, the situation says to go against them. Mike Leake is having a stellar rookie season as he is 5-0 with a 2.68 ERA on the year with 10 of his 12 starts being quality outings. He is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing five runs on 11 hits and four walks against the Giants but was able to walk away with a no-decision and remain undefeated. That unblemished record is where we get the value as well as a play against situation explained later. The Dodgers counter with Clayton Kershaw who has also put together a great season thus far with a 3.13 ERA to go along with his 6-3 record. He has one poor outing on his card when he was hammered for seven runs in 1.1 innings against the Brewers eight starts back. Take that away and his ERA drop to a superb 2.36 in his other 12 starts. The Dodgers are 9-4 in his 13 starts overall and they have won three of his last four away from home. He pitched a gem in his lone career start against Cincinnati last season, allowing just two runs on four hits in seven innings while striking out 11. Play on teams with a moneyline between +125 and -125 with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after five or more starts. This situation is 41-17 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, the Dodgers are 8-0 in Kershaw’s last eight starts against teams with a winning record while the Reds are 1-6 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers

Steve Merril

New York Mets vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: New York Mets

New York has seemingly conquered their road woes winning four straight away from home and five straight overall. They'll look for number six against the Indians on Wednesday night behind left hander Jonathan Niese. Since returning from the DL, Niese is 2-0 giving up one run and seven hits in 16 innings of work. He struck out 12 while walking only one in those two outings. Not a single Cleveland hitter has faced the left hander which gives Niese a slight advantage here. As a team, the Indians are 9-12 against southpaws including another losing effort against Johan Santana yesterday. Cleveland is just 12-18 at home where they are hitting only .245 as a team. Mitch Talbot is 7-4 for the Tribe with a 3.59 ERA in 12 starts this season. He is coming off an outing in which he gave up five runs and six hits in four innings of work to the Red Sox. Talbot has a 4.62 ERA in six games at home which is not good considering the Mets have scored 26 runs over their first four games of their current roadtrip. New York is hitting .288 as a team in seven interleague games as well, and since Talbot is backed by a bullpen that has a 5.20 ERA and a 5-12 record, we’ll recommend a play of the Mets in this game tonight.

Bryan Leonard
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1½
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Jamie Moyer has really struggled in his career against the Yankees. The veteran lefty has an 8.77 ERA in his last five starts against New York. The reason is very simple as the Yankees are a very patient team who doesn't get flustered by Moyer's junk ball mentality. They have scored at least four earned runs in every game as they simply wait for a good count and pound his mediocre offerings. Moyer faced a similarly patient Red Sox team last time out and allowed nine earned runs in a single inning of work.
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AJ Burnett has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. At Yankee Stadium he owns a 2.27 ERA as opposed to a 5.03 ERA on the road. Overall 4 of his 5 home starts have been quality ones.
The Phillie offense continues to struggle and we can't see them righting the ship in this situation. The line is high so we will play the run line with the Yankees. With Moyer on the mound five of the Phillies six losses have been by three runs or more.

Gill Alexander
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TOR (-110) vs SDP
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Romero has a 2.86ERA in his last 3 outings. He's holding opponents to a .238BA this season and continues to be one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He also has 2 complete games in his last 6 starts. Correia hasn't been able to string together 2 good starts in a row this season, and he's coming off a quality appearance v Seattle. He has a 5.95ERA in his last 4 starts. As noted on my Tuesday podcast, he has been the beneficiary of ridiculously good run support in 2010 and that good fortune to date doesn't seem to be accounted for in this line. It's our job to exploit that. Right-handed batters are hitting .295 v Correia this season and that plays right into the hands of some of the Jays' most powerful bats in Hill, Wells, Gonzalez, Bautista, Buck, and Encarnacion. Additionally, sabermetrics love Romero. He has a 3.16 FIP (10th best in MLB) and 3.21xFIP (6th best in MLB). Correia has a 4.25FIP and 3.98xFIP by contrast. The Jays have lost 7 of 9, but w Romero on the mound this afternoon, expect that trend to come to a halt.

Bobby Maxwell

My FREE play run is at 109-92-3 and tonight I have an interleague freebie for you as I go with the Mets on the road in Cleveland to wipe out the Indians for the second straight night.

The Mets took Tuesday’s opener against the Indians and the way lefty Jon Niese has been pitching lately, I’m going with them to get Wednesday’s game as well.

Niese is 2-1 in his last three starts with a 1.50 ERA and on Thursday at home against the Padres he threw a complete-game one hitter, winning 3-0, striking out six in the process. Prior to that, he had the Marlins to one run in seven innings of work in a 6-1 victory. The southpaw has been sharp this season, giving up three runs or less in seven of his last 10 starts, including two of his last three on the highway.

Mitch Talbot is on the mound for the Indians and he’s got a 4.62 ERA at home. He gave up five runs on Thursday at home but his offense saved him with an 8-7 win over the Red Sox. He’s allowed four runs or more in four of his last five home outings and just hasn’t looked sharp in front of the home fans.

New York has won nine of its last 10 games overall while the Indians have dropped their last two overall.

Cleveland is just 5-14 in interleague action, 19-50 as an underdog, 9-20 against lefties, 9-20 as a home ‘dog and 1-7 in interleague games against winning teams. On the other side, New York is on runs of 5-1 against right-handers, 5-1 as a favorite and 6-2 in Niese’s last eight starts.

Look for the Mets to get the win tonight as Niese has been on fire lately. Cleveland hits just .238 at home against lefties and Niese has got some great stuff that will keep them off-balance. Play the Mets.

2♦ N.Y. METS

Karl Garrett

In case you haven't noticed, the New York Mets are a building on fire right now. New York has won 5 in a row, 9 of 10, and 16 of their last 21 games!

G-Man going to ride that Metropolitans train tonight in Cleveland against an Indians team that has dropped 5 of their last 9 to sink to 12-18 on their home field this year.

Mets starter Jonathon Niese is fresh off a complete game shutout, and has won his last pair of starts while allowing just 1 run to score in his last 16 innings of work.

Cleveland will go with Mitch Talbot who does own a 7-4 record for the year, and figures to keep his team in this game for a spell.

Problem is, New York is feeling it right now, and after holding on for the 7-6 win last night, the G-Man has a feeling that the Mets will once again find a way to win the game tonight.

Mets to make it 6 in a row, and 10 of their last 11 with the "W" tonight.

4♦ NY METS

BRETT ATKINS

Tonight's interleague winner is coming on the Pirates as they host the White Sox in Pittsburgh.

Two left-handed starters going in this one and the White Sox have been a train wreck when they see southpaws take the hill. Chicago is hitting just .216 against lefties this season, .196 against them on the road and .206 against left-handers the last 10 games.

Today they get Pittsburgh southpaw Zach Duke who can be either real good or real bad. He was solid on Thursday against the Natioinals, but two starts ago at home he shut down the Braves on one run in seven innings of a 3-2 win.

Duke faced the White Sox last season and allowed just two runs in eight innings. Chicago lefty John Danks is on the mound and this guy has been horrible lately, losing his last roadie 8-5 to the Rays, allowing eight runs in four innings of work.

The White Sox are on negative streaks of 2-6 against lefties and 1-5 on the road against southpaws. Look for the Pirates to get this one behind the pitching of Duke.

3♦ PITTSBURGH

SPORTS WAGERS
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Uruguay +1.50 over SOUTH AFRICA
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We now turn to the Uruguayans to pull ahead of Group A with a convincing win against the host South Africa. South Africa had no business drawing against a much better Mexican side but as the host team in an opening match in any tournament, we all knew they would come out strong looking for a positive result and probably play their best football. Uruguay, like their opponents drew a hard fought match against group favorites France while playing a man down for 25 minutes. Uruguay is far superior talent-wise in this particular match, as South Africa will have no answer for Uruguay's deadly attack led by Diego Forlan and Edinson Cavani. Now that the first round of matches are complete and teams have scouted each other, Uruguay will take advantage and seemingly punish the hosts and take control of Group A as they look forward to their final group match against the Mexicans. A good price and a great play here! Play: Uruguay +1.50 (Risking 2 units).

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NY Mets –1.10 over CLEVELAND
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What’s incredible is that the Indians have scored 43 runs over its last six ball games and the reason that’s incredible is that they can’t hit. Both Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera are on the rack and likely won’t be back for the remainder of the year. The Indians have brutal numbers against southpaws and will face a resurgent one here in Jonathan Niese. Niese (77 BPV, 3-0-0-5-4 PQS) has rebounded well since his June 5 return to the Mets rotation. He tossed a one-hitter against SD in his last and pitched seven innings of one-run ball the start before that against a tough Marlins squad. In that game against FLA, he only threw 90 pitches. Over those last two starts, Niese struck out 12 and walked one and he induced 25 ground balls against just 12 fly-outs. Those are all great signs of a guy feeling it and he’s pitching for a team that’s also feeling it. The Mets have won five in a row and nine of its last 10 games. Mitch Talbot (-1 BPV, 2-4-3-4-0 PQS) continues to get by with shaky command and a fortunate and unsustainable hit/strand profile (26%/76%). He comes into this home start against a confident hitting Mets squad toting around a season ERA of 3.59, nearly 1.5 runs off his xERA (5.06). Talbot’s charmed life very likely hits a snag here. Play: NY Mets –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

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Los Angeles –1.10 over CINCINNATI
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Rookie Mike Leake is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.68 and that’s pretty sweet. However, the Reds were winning, they were scoring plenty of runs for him and he was able to pitch with very little pressure on him. Well, those dynamics have changed, as the Reds are laboring badly with just three wins in its last eight and one of those wins was extremely lucky. Leake is coming off his first disaster of the season against the Giants in which he was rocked for 11 hits and 5 ER in 4.1 innings. He’ll now face a Dodger team that explodes every time they play here. In four games this season at Great American, the Dodgers have scored 40 runs and they could even run into a somewhat fragile Leake in this one. When he makes mistakes at home, those pitches have ended up on the other side of the wall at Great American (all 6 HR allowed coming at home) and he's had better numbers on the road. Clayton Kershaw (67 BPV, 5-5-4-4-5 PQS) has thrown a PQS-4 or 5 in seven straight. He punched out a season-high 10 batters in his last start and has 27 K’s over his last 18.2 IP. Cincinnati hits left-handers well and their offense clicks at home but they’re suddenly pressing and Kershaw is on a roll (1.91 ERA, since May 4) and he has dominated the Reds in limited past action. Play: Los Angeles –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units).

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Milwaukee +1.45 over L.A. ANGELS
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Joel Pineiro is about as average as they come and he’s coming off a complete game gem in L.A. against the Dodgers. In that game he threw 118 pitches and the game before that he threw 107 pitches in Seattle. Now he’s going to face an offense that has exploded for 19 runs in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee is also playing its best ball of the year with six wins in its last nine. Pineiro has been absolutely rocked on more than a few occasions already this year and figures to have a tough time here after two good games in pitcher-friendly venues. The Angels have struggled vs lefties all year, especially at home where they’ve won just four times in 11 games against left-handed starters. Chris Narverson can be extremely good. He has great stuff and when he’s throwing strikes he’s tough as shoe leather. Narveson has a BAA of just .244 and that number has been progressively coming down all season long. He has four pitches (fastball, slider, curve and change) and he’s now utilizing all of them with confidence. The price here adds to the appeal of playing the Brewers, as its chances of winning are just as good and maybe better than the Angels chances. Overlay. Play: Milwaukee +1.45 (Risking 2 units).

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers are coming off a 12-0 victory over the Cincinnati Reds last night. Los Angeles has won 14 of their last 18 against the Reds. Cincinnati starts rookie Mike Leake who is having a good season as he is 5-0 on the year. He is due to lose one and this will be the game.The Dodgers are batting .2280 this season against right-handed pitching. Clayton Kershaw of Los Angeles is also having a very fine year. LA has won six of his last seven starts. Make the seven of eight after tonight.

Tony George
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New York Mets vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: New York Mets
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Cheap number for a red hot Mets team (5-0 run) who I rode like a horse last week for free plays. They beat the Reds last night and have a very similar pitcher on the hill tonight against a team just hitting .245 at home on the season. The bullpen recent stats leads you to think that the Tribe can win it late, I do not feel that way, NY is red hot at the plate and Niese who toes the rubber for the Mets tonight has a 1.50 ERA his last 3 outings. NY has won 16 out of their last 21 ballgames and I like them tonight in a tight one again to have their offense pull it out for them.

Frank Jordan
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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This is the only intra league game as the Dodgers and Reds square off from Cincinnati. Each team are sending out a good young pitcher and their combined record is 11-3 and have an era under 3.20. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw who is 5-1 over his last 7 starts going up against the Reds Mike Leake who is a perfect 5-0 and has an era under 2.70. Look for a good old fashion pitchers duel with Leake staying perfect when the dust settles. Play Cincinnati