Tom Freese
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Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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Atlanta starter Tommy Hanson has allowed just 7 runs in his last 4 starts all of which the Braves won. Atlanta is 19-7 their last 26 games overall and they are 44-19 their last 63 games as favorites. Tampa Bay starter Wade Davis has allowed 19 runs in his last 20 innings of work. The Rays are 62 -161 their last 223 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The Rays are 0-4 in Wade Davis's starts with 5 days of rest.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 +100
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I know the Yanks roughed up Halladay on their way to a comfortable win yesterday, but that only fuels Philly's fire. Philly is ready to pay back the team that defeated them in last year's World Series, and it will have an excellent opportunity to do so against Burnett, who is just 6-9 in his career against the Phillies with an ERA of 5.04. Burnett faced the Phillies 3 times last season and lost 2 of the 3, giving up 11 runs in just 8 innings of work in the two defeats. Moyer gets the ball for the Phillies, and he figures to give them a great chance to win when you consider how much trouble the Yankees have had with lefties this season. They are hitting just .256 and scoring only 4.9 runs per game against them. That's a big drop in production considering they are hitting .280 and scoring 5.7 runs per game on the season. We'll take the Phillies showing good value on the run line tonight.
GREG SHAKER
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New York Mets/Cleveland Indians Under 9
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I have spent much of my time and will continue to do so until the Allstar Break looking for starting pitchers experiencing some "Tired Arms" issues as that happens to a lot of throwers this time of the season. That is not happening with the Mets thrower as he has come off the DL very fresh and ready to perform. The 23 year Old threw his first ever complete game last time out and that would normally take me off him today but his youth should not be overlooked. He is on his game and over the course of 16 innings since coming back has complete control of his pitches, with 12 K's and just 1 BB. Talbot is motoring along with good efforts although his last outing is one that he could easily try to forget but I am sure cannot. His team commited 3 Errors in the first inning verses Boston and despite winning that game, this hurler had serious trouble getting ontrack after that. He does not rely on K Numbers to win games and his performance has not been any worse, or better in his recent stint. That make 9 hard to come by tonight. Contrary Weather Patterns tonight take me OFF this game as a Premium Selection but both starters will be throwing at their opponents Weak Link as far as Lefty/Righty numbers go. Both Pens performing OK right now and OK for Cleveland is Damn Good. My Model has 9 or less obtained here just at over 52% of the time at this OVER Venue but I will have to disagree with her once again.
Roz Juarbe
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Phillies at Yankees
Play Over
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Yankee Stadium is a band box, an easy home run park, tough on pitchers. 47-year old soft seve lefty Jamie Moyer faces the Bronx Bombers, who torched ace Roy Halladay last night. Moyer has an ERA over 5 and 6.75 his last three starts. NY righty A.J. Burnett is no ace, with a 4.79 ERA his last three starts, plus 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA all time against Philadelphia. Look for an offensive show in the Bronx.
Wunderdog
Texas Rangers vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
Anibel Sanchez is a top pitcher that has never been able to get enough starts to find consistency, until now. He sat out the entire 2007 season, made just ten starts in 2008 and 16 a year ago. He is now healthy, and it shows. He has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last ten starts and no more than four in any of them. He has a very nifty 2.82 ERA at home on the season. Tommy Hunter is pitching in just his third game this season and this will be his first on the road. Last season he finished his last five road starts with a composite 8.06 ERA. Hard to put much faith in those numbers vs a healthy Sanchez dealing aces at home. I'll go with Florida here.
Nelly
Florida - over Texas
Texas was able to sneak out a win last night with two runs in the ninth inning and a blown save from Leo Nunez, who has been a reliable closer for most of the season. The Rangers had just four hits in seven innings against Josh Johnson last night and only one extra-base hit. While Florida did not have a lot of hits last night the Marlins had missed scoring opportunities throughout the game, going 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position and hitting into two costly double plays. The Marlins stole three bases last night and that is an area that Florida can exploit again tonight as the Marlins should make Tommy Hunter's first road start of the season a difficult one. Hunter has been sharp in two home starts but he struggled last season in road appearances including an 11.12 ERA in his final four road starts of 2009. Florida is a strong offensive team at home, scoring over five runs per game while hitting over .280 in the last ten games. Texas is not a strong road performer with a 13-17 record for the year with big drops in offensive production. Anibal Sanchez has been sharp at home and the Marlins are 5-1 in his last six outings making this a great opportunity for Florida to get back in the win column.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Chicago White Sox over Pittsburgh
Lefty Zake Duke of the Pirates is a fiery competitor, but his club has not backed the hurler in 2010 scoring just 21 runs overall in his 10 decisions to-date. Opposing lefty Danks of Chicago is 5-5 (3.27) but, has pitched into some tough luck. But, the hurler threw a solid effort last time out stopping the Tigers with a one-hitter in 7 innings of work. In the series, the Sox have won 5 of 6, while the Pirates are 19-40 in starts made by hurler Duke. Stay with the ChiSox on Wednesday.
Hollywood Sports
Brewers at Angels
Prediction: Over
Expect plenty of runs to be scored in this matchup between Christopher Narveson and Joel Pineiro. Narveson sports a 5-3 record with a high 5.46 ERA and .159 WHIP. Pineiro is 5-6 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Both of these pitchers share a troubling statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Narveson and Pineiro have high ISO's of .188 and .182 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we can get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
LARRY NESS
Chicago White Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Chicago White Sox
The Pirates last winning season came back in 1992 and while it's not officially set in stone, it's a "safe bet" the Pirates won't break that streak in 2010. Pittsburgh lost 6-4 last night at home to the White Sox, giving them a nine-game losing streak, the longest active in MLB. The Pirates have struggled at the plate all season, hitting a ML-low .237 while scoring the fewest runs (208) of any team (3.25 RPG). They've scored just 27 runs during their seven-game slide (just slightly under par) and will once again be up against a suddenly red-hot White Sox pitching staff. Chicago has won FIVE of its last six, posting a 2.21 ERA. The White Sox have the second-best interleague record in MLB (29-14) since the start of the 2008 season and the team's success can be directly attributed to Chicago’s starting pitchers, who have gone 22-9 with a 2.99 ERA. Lefty John Danks gets the start tonight, coming off a 3-0 win over the Tigers (7 IP / 1 hit / 0 runs). He's a modest 5-5 on the season in 12 starts (team is 6-6) but owns a solid 3.27 ERA. He'll be opposed by Zach Duke, who has never been able to recapture the 'magic' of his rookie season of 2005 (8-2 with a 1.84 ERA). Duke's done nothing but lose since (with an AWFUL team) and while he opened this year 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA after three starts (team was 3-0), he's 1-7 with a 6.47 ERA over his last 10 starts (team is 2-8). Danks is 3-1 with a 1.15 ERA in his last six interleague starts, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA on the road. The Pirates own MLB's worst all-time IL mark (71-114 .384) and have been notoriously poor vs lefties. I won't bore you with years of stats, just going back to the start of the 2008 season in which they've gone 42-62 (.404) vs lefties. Go with Danks and the White Sox.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -115
The Dodgers dominated Cincy 12-0 yesterday, and I like them to keep rolling tonight behind Kershaw. The Dodgers are now 14-4 against Cincy the last 3 seasons and they have won each of Kershaw's last 8 starts against teams with winning records. Leake is having a good season for the Reds, but the Dodgers hit him hard the only time they've seen him earlier this season. He gave up 5 runs on 8 hits, including 2 home runs, in 7 innings. Meanwhile, the only time the Reds have seen Kershaw they only managed 2 runs on 4 hits in the 7 innings he pitched. Look for the Dodgers to continue their winning ways against the Reds here.
Info Plays
3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +125
Reasons the Pirates win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. This is a 40-19 ML System hitting 67.8% since 1997. This system is a perfect 6-0 this season.
2.) No team enjoys a losing streak, and the Pirates are in the midst of their longest of the year at 9 games. We're predicting that streak comes to an end today against the White Sox. John Danks is 2-2 with a 5.14 ERA on the road and 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Pirates should be able to get after him tonight and end this skid before it reaches double-digits. Bet Pittsburgh at home.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Braves -131
The clear advantage goes to the Braves on the mound tonight with Tommy Hanson over Wade Davis. Hanson is 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA through 13 starts this season, recording 80 strikeouts in 75.2 innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all wins over the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Phillies. Davis actually has a losing record this season on a good team, going 5-6 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.485 WHIP. Davis is 1-2 with a 7.56 ERA in his last 3 starts, which included giving up 8 earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last road start at Texas.
The Braves are 30-12 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Better yet, Atlanta is 18-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Braves are 6-0 in Hanson's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 in Hanson's last 5 starts overall. Atlanta is 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. With Hanson on the mound, I am highly confident they'll revenge their 4-10 home loss to the Rays last night. Roll with the Braves Wednesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -130
Duke hasn't looked much like the promising young pitcher he once was. He's 0-3 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.27. The Pirates have lost 8 of his last 10 starts and they have now lost 9 straight games. Meanwhile, the White Sox enter playing their best ball of the season, winning 5 of their last 6, and they have also taken 6 of their last 7 against the Pirates. Danks has been solid this season with a 3.27 ERA, and he figures to be good enough for the Sox to hand Pittsburgh a 10th straight defeat.
Craig Trapp
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago White Sox -1½
Yesterday had free play of CHW and they did not play great but did get the job done. Today they Whitesox turn to what has been the ace of the staff lately DANKS. Interleague starts have been even better for him 3-1 with a 1.15 ERA in his last six interleague starts, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA on the road. On the other hand we have the Pirates who have lost 9 in a row. Pirates turn to Duke to turn around their luck but Duke has gone 0-3 in last 4 starts with a 5 plus ERA. The bats of PIT have been really struggling averaging only 3 runs in last 9 games. CHW on the other hand are averaging nearly 6 runs per game in last 10. Think Danks shuts down Pirates and the bats of the Sox stay hot and give us huge value.
Black Widow
1* on Phillies/Yankees OVER 10
We have two struggling starters tonight going head-to-head in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Jamie Moyer gave up 9 earned runs in just 1 inning last game before getting pulled in a 2-12 loss to the Red Sox. A.J. Burnett has allowed 10 earned runs, 19 base runners and 4 home runs in his last 2 starts, totaling 12.3 innings of work. The Phillies have allowed 8 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 games, while the Yankees have scored 8 or more runs in 3 straight contests. The OVER is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 interleague games as an underdog, and the OVER is 4-1 in Moyer's last 5 starts as an underdog. The OVER is 11-2-2 in Yankees last 15 home games. The OVER is 9-1-2 in Yankees last 12 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The bats come out to play again tonight. Take the OVER 10 runs here.