Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday June, 20

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals and Tigers conclude their three-game Interleague series Wednesday night in the Motor City where Jake Westbrook meets Rick Porcello. Westbrook takes the mound knowing he is 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA in his last five team start against the Tigers. On the flip side, Porcello enters off a phony 'inside-out' win in his last effort when he lasted 5 innings while allowing 9 hits, 4 runs and 1 walk in an 8-4 win over the Cubs. With Porcello sporting a 5.08 ERA in his seven home starts this campaign, we'll back the defending world champs here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Hollywood Sports

Cubs at White Sox
Prediction: Over

The White Sox have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range. Chicago (35-33) sends out Gavin Floyd on Wednesday who is really struggling this season with a 4-7 record along with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Floyd has not registered a Quality Start in his last six starts while surrendering eleven home runs over that span. The Over is 5-0-1 in the White Sox's last 6 home games with Floyd pitching as a favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. Additionally, the Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubbies (24-44) have also seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games as an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. With Ryan Dempster being placed on the disabled list, the Cubs turn to Randy Wells to once again enter their starting rotation. Out of the bullpen so far this season, Wells is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. But the Cubs have played 5 of Wells' last 7 road starts Over the Total as an underdog. The White Sox have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Given these complementary team trends, there is plenty of evidence to conclude that the White Sox's proclivity to play Overs at home with the Total set at 10 will continue tonight. Take the Over in the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox while listing both starting pitchers Randy Wells and Gavin Floyd.

Kyle Hunter

St Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

Jake Westbrook started the season pitching very well, but he has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Tigers seem to be getting their act together and it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a run at first place in the AL Central. The Cardinals are without a couple key bats, and I think there is value on the Tigers here. Take Detroit.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies fit a fine system here that has won 16 of 20 times and plays on home favorites off a home favored win at -200 or higher by 5 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs where they scored 2 or less runs with 5+ hits and 5+ men left on base. Colorado is 0-5 this season on the road with the total of 9 to 9.5 and just 4-12 in June. The Phillies have taken 11 of the last 13 at home vs Colorado. Blanton makes the start for Philadelphia and he was solid in his lone home start vs Colorado going 6 innings allowing 2 runs in a win. White goes for Colorado and he has a mediocre 6.48 road era this season. Look for the Phillies to get the win tonight.

David Chan

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics

The Dodgers' (42-26) Nate Eovaldi (0-2, 1.82 ERA) is set to square off against the Athletics' (32-26) Trevor Milone (6-5, 4.48 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Eovaldi gave up one run off seven hits with two walks over six frames, earning a no-decision vs. the Angels on Wednesday; he'd finish with four strikeouts.

Milone gave up eight runs off seven hits, with four walks over four frames of work vs. the Rockies last Wednesday; it was obviously his worst start of the year, and Milone was extremely lucky to earn the no-decision.

Despite going 3-4 over their last seven, the Dodgers still hold baseball's best record, but have suffered since slugger Matt Kemp went down with injury.

I'm not going to read too much into Milone's last start, and believe he'll bounce back big here; note that Milone owns a major-league best home ERA of 0.98, while going 4-1 in the process.

Oakland has been white hot of late, outscoring its opposition 46-23 over its last seven games.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions; consider a second look at the home side!

Sean Murphy

St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers

The Cardinals have been floundering around since mid-May, and have shown no signs of turning things around lately, winning only one of their last three series'.

They didn't get this series off to a positive start either, as they suffered a 6-3 setback here in Detroit on Tuesday. I'm not convinced that Jake Westbrook is the guy to right the ship on Wednesday.

Westbrook has been predictably mediocre so far this season, going 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He's really struggled lately, allowing 35 hits and 22 earned runs over his last five starts, spanning only 25 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Cards are a miserable 1-6 in his last seven trips to the hill.

Not helping Westbrook's cause is a St. Louis offense that has produced three runs or less in eight of its last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers offense has been rounding into form lately, scoring 32 runs over their last six games. They're hitting .274 as a team while averaging north of 5.1 runs per nine innings at home against right-handed pitching this season.

Rick Porcello gets the nod on the hill for the Tigers on Wednesday. Despite his 4-4 record and 5.18 ERA, I'm still a supporter of Porcello. He gives his team a chance to win on most nights, and lately the Tigers have been coming through for him, going 3-1 in his last four outings. We haven't exactly seen Porcello at his best lately, although it's worth noting that four of his last five starts have come on the road. In his last outing here at Comerica Park, he held the Yankees to only one earned run over six innings in a 4-3 Tigers victory.

Like its offense, Detroit's bullpen has also turned it up a notch lately, posting a collective 2.48 ERA over its last 10 contests. The Cardinals 'pen has gone in the tank over that same stretch, recording an ERA just shy of 5.00.

As far as I'm concerned, this is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions right now, and the Tigers appear poised to clinch another series victory on Wednesday night. The price is right to back the home side in this spot.

Chris Elliott

Giants @ Angels
PICK: Over 7

San Francisco will send 34 year old righty Ryan Vogelsong to the mound on Wednesday night to take on the Los Angeles Angels. Vogelsong has been a nice surprise for the Giants this season with a record of 6-2, 2.29 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .215 BAA. In his last 4 road starts he has allowed 10 earned runs over 26.2 innings for an ERA of 3.44. 3 of the last 5 road starts he has made for the Giants have gone “Over” The total.

The Angels are expected to activate their ace Jered Weaver from the DL in time for Wednesday's battle with Vogelsong and the Giants. Weaver was excellent before getting hurt compiling a record of 6-1 with an ERA of 2.61, BAA of .215, and WHIP of 1.16. In his previous 5 starts for Los Angeles he is 2-1 with an ERA of 4.48. 3 of the last 5 starts that Weaver has made at Angel Stadium have gone “Over”.

The Giants offense has been better on the road than at home all season. On the road, the "Over" has hit 21-12 overall compared to at home where the "Over" has hit 11-22! That is a staggering difference!!! On the road when the total is 7 or less, the Giants have hit the "Over" 12-3.

Brandon Belt (.455 3 HR 7 RBI) and Melkey Cabrera (.367 2 HR 6 RBI) have been the 2 best Giants hitters over the past 7 games. The Angels continue to improve at the plate after a horrible start to the year offensively. Youngsters Mark Trumbo (.319 16 HR 42 RBI) and rookie sensation Mike Trout (.323 6 HR 27 RBI) along with 3 time NL MVP and 9 time allstar Albert Pujols are just three of the hitters that will give Vogelsong some problems in this one. Expect Weaver to be a little rusty in his return to action and Vogelsong to struggle to contain a talented Angels lineup. At a current total of 7, take the "Over" in this one.

Freddy Wills

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees
Play; New York Yankees

In my opinion we are getting great value here again as the Yankees continue to pitch well as Phil Hughes is 3-0 with a 1.08 WHIP and a 1.69 ERA over his last three starts. Facing the struggling Braves should help Hughes as they have never faced Hughes before. Hughes will be backed by the incredible bullpen that has been consistent and is ranked 2nd overall this season. Hughes also has had some success pitching during the day. Speaking of day games the Yankees are 12-7 and 56-19 dating back to last season as they have the best OPS .813 during day games while the Braves are 27th with a .663 OPS. I also like the fact that the Braves could be without arguably their best hitter as Brian McCann has caught 5 days straight and after playing in a night game Tuesday night may get this game off.

Tommy Hanson has also been great, but now he faces the Yankees who are clicking on all cylinders and in a ballpark he's just not used to pitching in against a dangerous lineup. The Yankees are 38-13 in their last 51 as an inter league favorite and are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings with the Braves with Tuesday night pending. Hanson has been pretty consistent however he has not had to face the likes of the Yankees on a regular basis.

Notable Hot Starters:
Tommy Hanson (3-0, 1.08 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)
Trevor Cahill (3-0, 1.03 WHIP, 0.77 ERA)
Justin Masterson (1-2, 1.10 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Steven Strasburg (3-0, 0.84 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (3-0, 0.97 WHIP, 2.08 ERA)
Jeff Weaver (3-0, 0.87 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Nathan Eovaldi (0-3, 1.42 WHIP, 1.53 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
There are only four starters that we consider to be having a rough time right now and the starter I"m choosing with the best shot to win is going to be Eric Bedard who will make a start for the Pirates after posting a 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. He goes up against the Twins and Francisco Liriano who appears to find himself, but Bedard has a 2.45 ERA at home while Liriano has a 7.11 ERA on the road, you do the math.

Notable Cold Starters:
Anthony Bass (1-2, 1.65 WHIP, 8.27 ERA)
Gavin Floyd (0-3, 1.72 WHIP, 8.04 ERA)
Tom Milone (1-2, 1.94 WHIP, 7.88 ERA)

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Miami Marlins

Miami has a winning road record and the Marlins are 14-5 in their last 19 road games. Ricky Nolasco has good stuff, doesn't walk anyone and has a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings against Boston allowing just 6 hits, 1 walk and 9 strikeouts. The Marlins are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Last place Boston comes home from a road trip, where they have a losing record, and the Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 7-21 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play the Marlins.

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO WS -1½+116 over Chicago

The Cubs going for a sweep on the road is not something you hear too often. This is a team that has 10 road wins in 35 games. Randy Wells has been working out of the pen since being demoted there on May 22. In his past three appearances, he worked 2.2 innings and allowed seven hits and two walks. Overall, in just 22 innings this season, Wells has walked 16 while striking out 11. Wells is an emergency starter without any notable skills. You would be hard pressed to find a larger disparity between an ERA and xERA than with Gavin Floyd, who has a 5.63 ERA and only a 3.65 xERA. Incredibly, Floyd has allowed five runs or more in five of his last six starts and has not had a quality start since shutting out the Royals on May 11. He still has 72 K’s and just 23 walks in 77 frames and it’s time for him to be rewarded. Play: Chicago -1½ +116 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics

We won with the A's last night and we will come back with them again on Wednesday. The offense has been pretty bad all season and even at home but the pitching has made up for it as the A's have a 2.95 ERA which is now the best in the American League. They are playing very well as they are 6-1 over their last seven games and are now 5-1 in their last six home games. The pitching has been the catalyst as they have allowed two runs or less in five of those six games. Oakland is 17-7 in its last 24 games as a home favorite. The Dodgers started the roadtrip by getting handcuffed by Brandon McCarthy and the bullpen as they mustered only two hits. Los Angeles has been outstanding at home but not nearly as good on the road even though four games over .500 on the highway is still pretty good. The pitching leads the way but the offense is much worse with a .240 average, eight lowest in all of baseball on the highway. After last night, the Dodgers dropped to 14-48 in their last 62 Interleague games as underdogs. Like McCarthy last night, we can expect another strong home effort for an A's starter, this one being Tom Milone. His overall numbers have been average but that is due to a dreadful time on the road where he has a 7.42 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in eight starts but pitching at Oakland Coliseum has been a different story. In five home starts, Milone has a 0.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP which has carried him to a 4-1 record. All five starts have been quality and the lone setback came against the Yankees in a 2-0 loss. The Dodgers counter with Nathan Eovaldi who has had some of the worst luck you can find. He has made four starts this season, allowing two runs or less each time but he is 0-2 and Los Angeles is 0-4 in those games as it has been unable to score many runs. The Dodgers have scored only four runs total in those games and with the way the offense has struggled on the road, reversing that production is unlikely. The A's are 6-0 in their last six home games against right-handed starters.

Steve Merril

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½

The Diamondbacks and Mariners wrap up their series on Wednesday afternoon. Seattle gets to see a familiar face in Trevor Cahill. The former Oakland starter has faced the Mariners 11 times in his career; he is 4-4 with a 2.94 ERA against Seattle. He has given up just 1 run and nine hits in his last two starts against them. Cahill is entering this game in good form giving up just 2 runs and 16 hits in his last three starts while beating the Angels, Athletics, and Padres. Mike Carp (2-10), Chone Figgins (4-17), Franklin Gutierrez (4-19), Michael Saunders (2-8) and Justin Smoak (4-17) all have poor numbers against Cahill. Seattle is hitting .209 in the daytime and they’ve gone Under the total in four of their last seven games. They have scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games.

Jason Vargas is 7-6 with a 3.95 ERA in 15 starts this season. He has lost two straight games at home so the change of scenery may do him good. Vargas gave up 2 runs and three hits in seven innings in his last outing against the Diamondbacks. Arizona hitters are a combined 6-for-40 against the southpaw with Justin Upton and Aaron Hill accounting for four of those hits. Arizona has gone Under the total in 15 of their 26 games against left-handed starters while hitting right around .240 in those games. They have gone Under in five of their last eight contests and they are struggling to hit the ball at times. They are also hitting just .237 in the daytime. We expect a low-scoring game between the Mariners and Diamondbacks on Wednesday afternoon.

Steve Janus

Philadelphia Phillies -134

The Rockies have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall and my money is on that losing trend to continue on Wednesday when they play Game 2 of a three game series against the Phillies. Philadelphia opened the series with a 7-2 win last night. They won't have any trouble staying motivated against Colorado, as the Phillies are currently 8 games back in last place in the NL East. There's no doubt in my mind they are think sweep.

The Phillies will send out Joe Blanton in this one. Blanton is just 6-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 13 starts this season, but he is coming off his best performance of the year. He threw all nine innings, allowing just one earned run on a solo home run. It's the kind of start that can give a pitcher confidence and lead to 3-4 good starts in a row.

It's not so much that the Phillies are starting Blanton, but the fact that the Rockies will be sending out Alex White. They guy is just 2-5 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in eight starts. White has also really struggled on the road, posting a 6.48 ERA in three starts.

Philadelphia is 38-16 in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 36-16 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 15-3 in Blanton's last 18 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Wunderdog

Game: Miami at Boston
Pick: Boston -140

The Miami Marlins spent a lot of money in the offseason to revamp a rotation and lineup to be a player in the National League. The problem is that this team has been prone to some offensive slumps and pitching that has been less than anticipated. The Marlins are in the midst of one of those slumps once again, as they are just 2-11 in their last 13 games. They have been shutout three times in this stretch while generating exactly 2 runs per contest. The Red Sox have won three straight and five of their last six to move over the .500 mark and have things going now. The Marlins are a surprisingly sub-standard 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. Boston stands above all when facing an interleague right-hander, where they are an amazing 70-25 in their last 95 against them. Play Boston in this one.