Bryan Power
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
Though I remain unsold on (now) first-place Cleveland in the long-term (-38 run differential is SEVENTH worst in baseball!), this series vs. in-state rival Cincinnati looks like it's the Tribe's for the taking. Note that I did take the Indians in Monday's opener, right here in this very space, a wild 10-9 victory. The game was much lower scoring last night, but the result was the same with Cleveland winning by a single run via a walk off home run from Asdrubal Cabrera in the bottom of the 10th. Tonight, they go for a seventh straight home victory over the Reds and complete a sweep, gaining revenge for getting swept themselves last week in Cincinnati.
Having received little to no support over his last eight starts (only 10 runs), Cleveland starter Justin Masterson has pitched much better than his record indicates. His ERA in nine home starts this year is 3.13 and over his last three starts overall, it's 1.80. He threw a gem last start, tossing seven scoreless innings in a win over Pittsburgh.
Cleveland is 30-19 vs. right-handed starters this year, so look for them to get to Bronson Arroyo.
Jeff Alexander
Boston Red Sox -146
The Marlins have lost 11 of their last 13, and I expect their struggles to continue tonight against a Boston club that has won 5 of its last 6. The Fish have lost 7 of their last 9 versus the Red Sox, including 4 of their last 5 at Fenway. The Red Sox are 6-2 in the southpaw Doubront's last 8 starts. Look for him to have success against a Marlins club that is 0-4 in its last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Also, the Marlins are just 2-5 in Nolasco's last 7 starts. Bet Boston.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -123
The Cleveland Indians are showing solid value Wednesday as a small home favorite against the Cincinnati Reds. The Indians will be going for the series sweep, and they'll be sending their best starter to the mound in Justin Masterson tonight.
Masterson got off to a slow start this season, but he's really kicked it in gear of late. He has allowed just one earned run over 14 innings in his last two starts. Masterson has been at his best at home, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in nine home outings in 2012.
Bronson Arroyo has posted a 3.84 ERA in 13 starts this season, a 3.91 ERA in seven home starts, and a 4.66 ERA over his last three. Arroyo has allowed 16 earned runs over 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland, while Masterson allowed just one earned runs over 8 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.
The Reds are 17-35 in their last 52 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 0-4 in Arroyo's last 4 starts vs. American League Central foes. The Indians are 26-12 in their last 38 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland is 6-0 in their last 6 home meetings with Cincinnati. Bet the Indians Wednesday.
Jimmy Boyd
San Francisco Giants +145
It's normally not a good idea to go against Weaver at home, but there's value in doing so at this price considering the ace hasn't made a start since May 28. He has been on the disabled list with lower back pain and will be limited to 80-90 pitches. The Angels elected not to have him make a rehab start in the minors so he will be working out all the kinks tonight. The Giants figure to get another great start from Vogelsong. They have won each of his last 8 starts, and he hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of those wins. He has given up 1 earned run or fewer in 6 of his last 9 starts. The Giants lost yesterday but are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. We'll take San Francisco.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -123
The Reds are now 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland, and I expect their road struggles against the Tribe to continue. Masterson (1.80 ERA L3 starts) is in better current form than Arroyo (4.66 ERA L3 starts). Arroyo was lit up in last season's start against the Indians. He gave up 8 earned in 4 2-3 innings in an 8-2 loss. Masterson opposed him in that game, only allowing 1 earned in 8 innings of work. We'll take the Tribe at home with the hotter starter on the hill.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY YANKS -140 over Atlanta: Upon further review I have decided i like this one better. This write will be a bit shorter than the one below, so i don't duplicate a lot of what I wrote down there.The Yanks win streak was snapped last night but this is still a team that is playing very well. The Yanks play good ball in day games (12-7) and they score 5.2 rpg in those afternoon games. The Braves have not been do hot in day games, going just 8-12 and scoring just 3.6 rpg. Atlanta is also 5-9 in inter league games, while the yanks have gone 12-2. Both starters have been very good of late, but I have to feel that the yanks offense will have better results off of Hanson, than a Braves offense (2 rpg in their last 8) will have off of a hot Philip Hughes. In this humid weather neither starter may go more than 6 and then we must look to the pens and that give the Yanks even more of an edge. NY Lost a tough one last night, but they should bounce back nicely with a good win here.
Texas/ San Diego Over 7: Yu Darvish has been solid for the Rangers this year, with a 3.57 ERA overall, but he does have a 3.98 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP on the road this year, plus in his 4 day starts he has a 5.32 ERA and a high 2.05 WHIP. Overall teams have a .343 OBP vs him, including a .423 OBP vs him in day games. He just puts too many men on base and that should help a Padres team that has problems scoring at home, get some runs across here. YU has pitched in pitchers parks in his last 3 road starts and he allowed 6 ER's to a weak Oakland offense and 4 ER's to a weak Seattle offense in two of his last 3 road starts. Anthony Bass has really struggled of late, allowing 26 ER's in his last 5 starts. 4 of those were on the road, but he does have a 3.62 ERA at home, so he will give up some runs and behind him is a pen that has a 3.99 ERA in it's last 10 games. The Padres have scored just 3 rpg at home, but 4.3 rpg in Anthony's home starts. The Rangers average 5.1 rpg in day games, while San Diego puts up 3.4 rpg. I expect at least 9 in this one.
Oakland/ Dodgers Under 7: Don't even look at Tommy Milone's last 3 starts as all three of those starts were on the road and his last 2 were at Colorado and Arizona. A couple of hitters parks, but tonight he is at home where he has been awesome. Tommy has an 0.98 ERA at home (2nd best in the majors), plus an 0.85 WHIP to go along with it, with those home starts averaging just 4.6 rpg. He will be taking on an LA offense that has hit just .219 and put up 3 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they have averaged a mere 1 rpg in Nathan Eovaldi's 4 starts this year. Nathan has really pitched well for LA, with a 1.82 ERA, but thanks to that poor run support the Dodgers are 0-4 in his starts and those starts have averaged just 3 rpg. Tommy should have another solid outing tonight vs an A's squad that hits just .214 at home and scores 3.6 rpg. This should be a great pitcher's duel in a a pitchers park and we should see no more than 5 runs on the board in this one.
LA Angels/ San Francisco Under 7: Great pitching matchup on tap tonight as Ryan Vogelsong will square off vs Jered Weaver. Ryan has been solid this year with a 2.29 ERA overall. He has been even better in his last 9 starts, allowing more than 2 ER's just once, while posting an ERA of 1.70 during that stretch. Let's also note that in each of those games in which he allowed 2 ER's or less their has not been a game with more than 7 runs scored. The Angels offense has been struggling of late as they have averaged just 3.2 rpg and have hit just .235 in their last 8 games. For the Giants they have averaged 4.7 rpg on the road, but just 3.5 in interleague play. Tonight they will have a tough task getting runs on the board vs Jered Weaver, who has an 0.83 ERA at home on the year, while also posting a microscopic .055 WHIP in his home starts. Jered has allowed 2 ER's or less in 5 of his last 6 starts and should be fresh, having not pitched since May 28th. Neither team puts a lot of extra runners on base and that will make it hard for these team to put up the crooked numbers that would give us a loss here. I look for around 5 runs at best in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
NY Yanks/ Atlanta Under 9: I haven't been doing writeups for my lesser plays, but after i got this one done I decided to make it a lesser play. Last night 7 runs were scored before the bottom of the 6th, but the pens shut down these teams the rest of the way and it ended at 7. The Yanks have a team ERA at just over 2.00 for the month of June and a big part of that has been Philip Hughes as he comes in with a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his last 7 starts he has an ERA of 3.15 and has allowed 2 ER's or less in 6 of those 7 starts. Phil does have a 4.46 ERA at home, but just 8 rpg were scored in those starts. Tommy Hanson has pitched well for the Braves this year and he comes in hot as well, with a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 starts, while in his last 7 starts his ERA is just 3.02, and he has allowed 2 ER's or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. Tommy has a solid 2.44 ERA on the road, with just 6.12 rpg being scored in his 8 road starts. The Braves offense, that has averaged just 2 rpg in their last 8 games, should struggled vs Hughes today, while Hanson should have a good game vs a solid Yanks attack. Yanks interleague games have averaged 7.3 rpg, while their day games have averaged 8.9 rpg. For the Braves their Day games have averaged 7.7 rpg, while their interleague games have put up just 6.6 rpg. This will be a hot humid day for this game and that usually means the ball travels better, but still neither team is hitting great these days and both starters have been very good of late. About 7 runs just like last night.
Ross King
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5
Cubs are currently 10-25 on the road and as road dogs of +150 to +175 they are 12-31 the last 3 seasons.In June the last 3 seasons the Cubs are 27-46 and after a win they are 65-105.Take Whitesox -1.5 to avoid the sweep if they have any pride or backbone against the woeful Cubs as your freeplay winner.