Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 2,2010

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Washington Nationals

The Nats send John Lannan to the mound in Houston against Wandy Rodriguez and the Astros this evening. Lannan enters tonight's fray with wins in six of his last nine team starts and four of his last five starts in June. Meanwhile Rodriguez is struggling and has dropped each of his last three team starts in a row. Back the better arm here tonight.

MTI Sports

Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros

After a torrid start to the season, the Nats are slowly reverting to their losing ways. They are 6-12 their last eighteen and took a brutal beat last night. Washington battled back from a early 3-0 deficit to take a 7-6 lead into the bottom of the ninth, only to lose 8-7 when Matt Capps blew the save opportunity.

At first glance the pitching match-up appears to favor the Nats, but Houston is 5-0 when Wandy Rodriguez starts and he went less than 5 innings in his previous start and 5-0 when Rodriguez starts at home vs team they beat the last time he started against them. Washington is 0-5 when John Lannan starts on the road after a quality start. Consider the Astros.

Steve Merril

Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 8

Tampa Bay snapped Toronto’s four-game winning streak when they came back in the ninth inning on Tuesday night. The Rays send David Price to the mound where he's 7-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 10 outings. His best start of the season came against these Jays on April 25th. The lefty went the distance giving up just four hits while striking out nine batters. Price is 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. Vernon Wells (3-12), Alex Gonzalez (1-5), Jose Molina (1-5), Lyle Overbay (0-3), Mike McCoy (0-3), and Raul Chavez (0-2) all have poor numbers against Price. As a team, Toronto is hitting just .188 against left handers this season. The Jays are 4-6 in those games scoring just 2.8 runs per contest. Toronto’s Shaun Marcum is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA after winning three straight starts against Baltimore, Arizona, and Minnesota. Marcum hasn't faced Tampa Bay since 2008 when he pitched against them twice. In fact, in three starts, the Jays righty is 1-0 with a 0.83 ERA against Tampa Bay. Rays hitters are 7 for 54 against Marcum in those games. This series has produced 24 Unders in the last 41 meetings. Tampa Bay was hitting .232 in their previous seven games before last night's 7-run explosion. With Price and Marcum facing off in this one, we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Rays and Blue Jays tonight.

Craig Trapp

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

FLA goes for sweep today after two pretty good offensive outbursts. They will need some extra luck today as they face one of the hottest pitchers, Gallardo (5-2, 2.78 ERA) is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last eight outings including a complete game shutout last time out. FLA turns to a not so hot pitcher in Volstad who has lost 4 games in a row with a plus 4 ERA in those games. Neither one of these lineups are consistent so lets call the bats a push. That gives us extremely good value on the much better pitcher as Gallardo carries the load again today!

BIG AL

Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers may be down 2-0 in this series, but they were very close to coming back home with the series tied, and actually not that far off from bringing a 2-0 lead back to Broad Street. Philadelphia had Chicago's back against the wall in Game 1 with a 4-3 lead about midway through the contest, and matched the Blackhawks in shots (32 apiece) before succumbing in the third period to lose 6-5 in a wild opener. Then in Game 2, the Flyers again played the Hawks even for 99% of the match on enemy ice, only to have a 28-second lapse in the second period which resulted in two Chicago goals which turned out to be enough. The Flyers have to be feeling good because they come back to their home arena knowing they outplayed Chicago in that second game in which they out-shot them by 33-26. Should Philly be concerned that the Hawks are 11-1 in their last 12 road games? No, they shouldn't, for one simple reason: Chicago is 0-8 in its last eight games in Philly. The Flyers may be only 31-15-1-2 at home this season, but they've really heated up there lately, going 22-7 in their last 29 in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philly.

David Chan

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Minnesota Twins

Take the Minnesota Twins over the Seattle Mariners, backing Kevin Slowey over Cliff Lee.

This is one of those angles we’re trying to work. This’ll be the fourth southpaw the Twins will have seen since Saturday. Going into Tuesday night, the Twins are 11-5 against lefty starters.

Cliff Lee isn’t just any lefty, but the light-hitting Mariners are only 3-3 in his starts this season. The Twins are 7-3 in Kevin Slowey’s 10 starts this year, and while he’s not someone you mention in the same breath as a healthy Cliff Lee, he won’t beat himself (43/14 K/BB ratio). Against the Mariners’ bats, getting a nice piece of plus money, that should be enough 50% of the time.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

Kevin Slowey gets the nod for the visitors; not much negative that you can say about Slowey; he pitched 6 2/3's innings on Friday night, allowed just one run off six hits vs. the Rangers.

It should be pointed out though that Slowey failed to get through the sixth inning in eight of his first nine starts to the year.

Also keep in mind that Slowey went just 1-1 with a brutal 7.59 ERA vs. Seattle in two starts last season.

Minnesota is just 1-4 its last five on the road overall.

In the other dugout: Cliff Lee goes for the M's; Lee is coming off his third win of the season; he struck out ten over eight strong innings on Friday vs. the Angels.

He has 27 K's over his last three outings and is 8-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Minnesota lifetime.

Bottom line: I look for the Mariners to win back-to-back games in June as they come off a convincing 7-1 drubbing of the Twins last night.

I expect Lee to outduel his counterpart; you may want to consider a second look at the MARINERS in this situation.

Tom Stryker

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Los Angeles Angels

Off Tuesday's 6-3 loss at Kansas City, I'm going to come right back with the surging Halos on Wednesday night. Quietly, Los Angeles has tasted victory in five of its last seven and the Angels look like they're ready to go on a run.

Knocking around Kaycee hurler Kyle Davies shouldn't be a problem for LA. So far this season, Davies numbers are average-at-best allowing 31 earned runs and 57 hits in 56.2 frames. That shakes down to a soft 4.92 ERA. Kyle's worst efforts have come with the sun down. At night, No. 28 has been blasted for 27 earned runs and 45 hits in 44.0 frames. That's bad enough for an elevated 5.52 ERA!

Los Angeles southpaw Scott Kazmir is certainly due for a quality start. Before getting tagged for five earned runs and eight hits in 5.1 frames in his last performance at home against Seattle, Kazmir looked decent in his previous two outings at St. Louis and Texas (on the road against two solid offenses) allowing seven earned runs and 12 hits in 14.0 innings of work. In eight starts against the Royals, Scott owns a 2-2 mark and a respectable 4.89 ERA.

If you need a handful of technical reasons to make this investment consider the following: LA has been solid in the third game of a series cashing 63 of its last 92. Meanwhile, KC has slipped in 29 of its last 39 against the AL West and 39 of its last 54 against left-handers. Lay the lumber here men. Take Los Angeles with listed pitcher Kazmir.

Jim Feist

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Take: San Diego Padres

First place San Diego has a winning record both home and away, while the up and down Mets are 3,000 miles from home. They looked tired Monday in an 18-6 loss in this park! That was their third loss in four games to start this trip. While the Padres are strong at home, the Mets are terrible on the road. San Diego righty Clayton Richard (3.00 ERA) is very good, with the team 3-1 his last four starts. Opponents hit just .224 off him at home. Play the Padres.

EZWINNERS

St. Louis Cardinals -230

The Reds rookie pitcher Sam LeCure pitched six innings and picked up his first win in his major league debut on Friday against Houston. LeCure, a fourth round pick in 2005, was given a big lead and only allowed two runs on six hits but lets remember that was against the worst offense in major league baseball. LeCure will not have that luxary in his first road start against Albert Pujols and company. The margin of error for LeCure will be very small with Chris Carpenter on the mound for the Red Birds. Carpenter has been dominant against Cincinnati this season and in his career as a whole. Carpenter is 2-0 against the Reds this season with an ERA of 1.38 and he is 9-3 against Cincinnati in his career with an ERA of only 2.03. The Cardinals are 30-5 in Carpenters last thirty five starts as a favorite of -$200 or more. I look for a dominate performance by the St. Louis ace in this game. Play on the Cardinals.

Cajun Sports

2* Arizona – Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers face off for the final game of their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon in the City of Angels. The Dodgers have dominated this series of late and the over has been the play. As of this writing, the over has cashed in the last four meetings in LA and we expect today’s matchup to follow suit with another winner. Arizona has struggled on the road this season going 9-20 SU but a profitable 20-7 Over record in those games. When facing right-handed hurlers they have averaged 4.7 runs per game and tipped the total scale to the over at a rate of 25-14. The Diamondbacks are also a moneymaking 13-1 Over in day games this season. Arizona will send Edwin Jackson to the bump with his 3-6 record and ERA of 6.03 including a 1-3 mark on the road and an ERA of 6.92 in those contests. The Diamondbacks are 17-5 Over when playing against a team with a winning record and 8-0 Over when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent this season. LA comes into today’s game with a 16-8 SU mark at home that includes a 15-8 Over record. The Dodgers average scoring 5.4 runs per game versus right-handed starters and 12-4 Over in home games against right-handed starters this season. LA will send Carlos Monasterios to the hill with his 2-0 SU record and ERA of 2.20. The Dodgers are 12-2 Over versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season and 22-9 Over versus teams who have been outscored by 1 or more runs per game on the season the last 2 seasons. Our TPR Index projects a final score of 6.9 to 4.2 with the Dodgers winning and the total easily flying over the 8.5 number the oddsmakers have posted for this game. With solid support coming from the fundamental and technical sides, we will play this game to go over the total.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Arizona – Los Angeles OVER 8.5

Gill Alexander

LOS (-145) vs ARI

The Diamondbacks have lost 9 ballgames in a row. They've scored only 17 runs in their last 8G. They continue to have the single worst bullpen in baseball w a 7.72ERA. Seven. Point. Seven. Two. Jackson has limited opponents to a .179 BA over his last 3 starts. However, the start before that stretch was against these same Dodgers who tagged him for 6ER on 7H in 6.2IP. Jackson has a 6.08ERA on the season overall (6.91ERA on the road) and opponents are hitting .282 against him. Lefties hit .324 against him. Furcal, Ethier, Loney, and DeWitt all hit from the left side of the plate. Monasterios has a 2.20ERA in '10 and has held lefties to a .214BA. Johnson, Drew, LaRoche, and Parra are all left-handed batters. He has a 1.35ERA during daygames this season. Mark Reynolds may be out of the lineup for Arizona. LAD has won 7 of 8 v Arz. I expect it to be 8 of 9 today.

JR O'Donnell

Kansas City - 1.5

We are rolling with the 22-31 Kansas City Royals - 1.5 runs to tune up the 26-28 Angels tonight as we are fading one of the worst AL retread pitchers. The former Tampa Bay hurler S. Kazmir has been a terrible road prop. We will call for Kazmir to get knocked around again as he has a poor 3-5 over all mark and a lofty 6.34 ERA. He has been shelled the last 5 games and the hot hitting Royals will add to his latest bad stretch "1-4" last 5 and 6.9 ERA. The Royals are a sneaky play tonight as we are just sold on the Angels on the road with a bad hurler. Let's look at the Royal's Kyle Davies (4-3, 4.92) who has had success vs. those Angels. Look out Vegas JR's moving all in on the Royals - 1.5 runs!!

Brad Diamond Sports

NY Yankees -1½

I am hard pressed laying runs into the Orioles who years back were a real problem for the New Yorkers. However, since Peter Angelos bought Birdland the commodity down in Grab Town has been drowning in losses. On the other hand, New York is fighting for first place and inserts hurler Hughes (¬6-1, 2.70) in the pitching box which should cause some real problems for the inconsistent bats of the Orioles. Hurler Brad Bergesen (3-3, 5.96) of Baltimore has been roughed up on the road this season fighting a 6.28 ERA (2.02 WHIP). The Orioles have lost three straight behind Bergesen, so I’ll take a ticket with the Yankees laying 1½ runs.