VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners won the series opener last night 7-1 as lefty Vargas stymied the Twins lineup. Tonight it doesn't get any easier going against former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee whose team has won his last three starts against Minnesota. Lee is 8-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 17 career starts against the Twins. The Twins are averaging just 4.3 runs per game against left-handed pitching. Go with Lee and the Mariners tonight.
Play on: Seattle Mariners
Frank Jordan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves have won the first two games of this series and in doing so have taken over first place in the NL East. This change is do to the fact that Atlanta has won 7 in a row and 8 of 10 where as Philly has lost 3 in a row and 8 of 10. Look for Philly to snap out of it with Kendrick on the mound avoiding the sweep. Play Philadelphia
Tom Freese
Rockies at Giants
Prediction: Under
Colorado starter Jeff Francis has allowed just 6 runs total in his 3 starst this year. The Rockies are 7-0-1 UNDER in their ln their last 8 games with Jeff Francis on the mound. Colorado is 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 road games. The Rockies are 23-11-1 UNDER their last 35 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. San Francisco starter Matt Cain has allowed 3 runs total in his last 3 starts are 16-6-2 UNDER their last 24 home games. San Francisco is 10-2-1 UNDER their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 32-15-3 in game 3 of a series. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New York Mets -120
After a game 1 loss, the Mets bounced back to take game 2. Now, they are in an excellent position to win this series with ace Johan Santana taking the mound. Santana has been incredible of late, posting an ERA of just 1.19 and a WHIP of only 0.926 over his last 3 starts. It is also worth noting that the Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts vs. the National League West and the Padres are 18-40 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. All Santana's going to need is a little bit of run support tonight, and I expect him to get it considering how well the Mets have hit southpaw starters. The Mets are hitting .278 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off of lefty starters this season. In fact, the Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Richard has been solid for the Padres, but they have lost 5 of his last 7 game 3 starts. I'll back the better starter at a solid price tonight.
Dennis Macklin
Mets vs. Padres
Play: Under 6.5
Since getting pounded by the Phillies for ten runs in that Sunday Night ESPN debacle, Johan Santana has an ERA of 1.21 in four starts. He's given up just four earned runs on just 14 hits in his L23 2/3 innings works to some pretty mashing lineups in the Braves, Yanks, and Brewers. Clayton Richard is 3-1 and 2.57 in his L4 outings and we all know that Petco is a graveyard for hitters. Neither of these lineups will make you think of the '27 Yankees with runs at a premium and making UNDER the play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +1.06 over HOUSTON
The Astros erupted for eight runs last night and the chances of them having back-to-back good days at the plate are slim at best. This Astros are dead last in the league in every relevant offensive category and it’s for that reason they should never be played as a favorite. John Lannan posted a 6.51 ERA over his first seven starts this season. He then got a 10-day rest over a skipped start. Since then he has a 1.96 ERA and a .553 OPSA in 18.1 IP. Wandy Rodriguez (46 BPV, 0-3-2-4-0 PQS) has not been sharp in recent weeks. He’s 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA in his last five starts and it’s worth noting that the Nationals hit lefties well (.793 OPS) and obviously have the better offense here. Umpire Bruce Dreckman is slated to be behind the plate for this one. He has been a hitter’s umpire over the last three years and that, too, favors the Nats. Play: Washington +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON –1½ +1.32 over Oakland
The A’s have won four of Ben Sheets’ last five starts and that has falsely increased his stock. Fact is, Sheets has done well at home, as many pitchers thrive in that park but on the road it’s a whole different story. In five road starts, Sheets has allowed 37 hits in 26 frames for a BAA of .333. He’s also allowed 24 runs for an ERA of 8.20. Sheets is a two-pitch guy that throws fastballs and curveballs and his fastball tops off at 90MPH. These Red Sox hitters will kill guys that feature two pitches and both of Sheets pitches are not dominating like they used to be. You never know what you’re going to get from Daisuke Matsuzaka. This guy can walk six in a row and then strike out seven in a row. He’s a risk for sure but one that’s worth taking because the league is hitting just .218 off him and the A’s offense resembles that of a minor-league team. You look at the A’s line-up and you have to wonder how this team is three games over .500. Anyway, they lost 9-4 last night and the Red Sox are heating up big time. Boston has now won eight of 10 and they’ve scored 17 runs over its last two games. Play: Boston –1½ +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO –1½ +1.66 over Texas
There are so many things to like about the South Side here and we’ll start with Gavin Floyd. Floyd is so much better than his current stats suggest and therefore he’s one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Floyd (77 BPV, 2-5-4-5-4 PQS) has indicators that point to an xERA nearly two runs lower than the current 6.02 figure he’s toting around. He also pitched well against the Rangers earlier this year in Texas in which he threw seven full innings and allowed five hits and one run. In his last two starts against the Rays and Marlins, Floyd allowed just 10 hits and four runs in 13.1 innings. He also struck out 12 batters and walked just three over that two-game stretch. Scott Feldman has been banged around all year, which has led to a low confidence level. His 6.97 ERA over his last five starts is well- deserving. Feldman has now surrendered four or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. Given his modest strikeout rate and a BAA of .309, there's nothing to like about this guy. Texas once again is a different team on the road, where they’ve won just nine of 24 road games. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.66 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/PHILADELPHIA over 5½
As the series shifts to Philadelphia and with the last game being a defensive battle, you can expect both teams to open it up again tonight. After that first game debacle in which there was little or no defense, the books over-compensated in game 2 and posted a total of 6 over. Now the total is back to 5½ -1.04 based on one game. What we do know is that both teams are loaded offensively and both are very capable of scoring five on their own. Also, the two goalies in this series are not close to being the cream of the crop and while they’re capable of good games, they’re also capable of allowing four or more. Expect lots more penalties tonight and subsequently lots more goals, as the “getting-to-know” one another period is over and the Flyers need goals to get back into this final. Play: Chicago/Philly over 5½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Wunderdog Sports
D-Backs vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 8.5
It was just a matter of time before a very average Arizona offense began to show their true colors. This team surprised the baseball world with 236 runs in their first 44 games, for 5.36 a game. The bottom has fallen out and the D-Backs over their last nine games have totaled 21 runs, at 2.33 a game, dropping a full three runs and were shutout here last night. The Dodger's offense is not exactly manufacturing runs either as they have been shutout twice in their last nine, scored just once last night, and are just three a game over the last nine. The D-Backs have fallen short of the total in each of Jackson's last four starts as a dog, while the Dodgers have fallen short in 11 of their last 15 in key division matchups. I'll go UNDER in this one.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -133
The San Francisco Giants have opened this series with Colorado with 2 straight home losses. I have a hard time seeing them settling for a third straight home loss to Colorado tonight, especially with a big edge on the mound. Jeff Francis has pitched well in his return from injury in 3 starts this season, but he hasn't pitched regularly since 2008 and I'm not sold on him just yet. Matt Cain of the Giants is the real deal, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.010 WHIP this season. Over his last 3 starts, Cain has allowed 2 earned runs in 23 innings for a 0.78 ERA and 0.783 WHIP. He is in some kind of a groove right now.
This play also falls under a system that is 39-9 (81%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%). San Francisco opened at -125 so this system still applies. The Giants are 34-12 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are 11-1 against the money line in home games after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. So they have been very resilient, and I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight. Bet San Francisco.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -110
Since winning 3 in a row and 5 of 6, the Brewers have dropped 3 straight, but I expect them to get right back in the win column tonight. Milwaukee is one of the better road hitting teams in baseball, batting .275 and scoring 5.7 runs per game. With this in mind, I like its chances against Volstad. The Marlins are 0-4 in Volstad's last 4 starts, 0-8 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 1-5 in his last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Meanwhile, the Brewers should be in good hands with Gallardo as he is 3-0 with an ERA of just 2.57 on the road this season. Plus, the Brewers are 4-0 in Gallardo's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are also 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Brew Crew in the road chalk tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Rockies/Giants UNDER 7
First off, the Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Secondly, the Under is 6-2 in Cain's last 8 starts vs. the Rockies and 5-1-2 in Francis' last 8 starts vs. the Giants. Thirdly, the Under is 6-1 in Cain's last 7 home starts vs. Rockies and 2-0-2 in Francis' last 4 road starts vs. the Giants. Lastly, the Under is 7-0-1 in Francis' last 8 starts overall and 3-0-1 in Cain's last 4 starts overall. Both of these pitchers have been Unders machines, and this matchup has been an Unders machine. I'll take the Under here tonight.
Freddy Wills
Mets -115
Santana has been awesome in his road starts and while Clayton Richard is equally impressive at home I still give the edge to Santana and the Mets. Take out Santana's lone bad loss on the road against the Phillies where he gave up 10 ER due to tipping his pitches and the binoculars in the Phillies bullpen and Santanna has given up just 18 hits in 29 IP all the while giving up 2 ER. That would give him a 0.62 ERA in 4 road starts. In his two starts visiting San Diego with the Mets he's 1-1 going 14 IP giving up 12 hits and 2 ER. The Mets have started to hit lefties in their last 10 they have a .338 average and 6.06 runs per 9 innings. Richard will be making a day start locally for 2:35pm and I don't trust his experience with this type of a day start. He's got a 4.38 ERA in 2 day starts vs. 2.66 at night this year!
Dave Cokin
Twins at Mariners
First place Minnesota is a .500 road team and a long way from home in this series. They looked sluggish last night in a 7-1 loss here. The bats won’t get a reprieve tonight against ace lefty Cliff Lee, who has an astounding 42-3 strikeout to walk ratio in 44 innings. Twins righty Kevin Slowey has a 7.59 ERA against the Mariners making this is a solid spot for the home team. Play the Seattle Mariners.
Sac Lawson
WAS (+106) vs HOU
Can't say I'm opposed to any situation where we can bet against Houston and get plus money.. That's just fantastic! Also can't say I'm opposed to grabbing John Lannan at a market low point. It's funny, most people are forgetting that this is the guy who was the staff ace last year. I was reading on ESPN column earlier this morning that spoke about his mediocrity as a left handed pitcher.... WHAAAT. It's weird how a guy can go from the best pitcher in the staff last year, to absolute mediocrity this year..?? Not buying into it myself. The guy still has great stuff, and at the end of the day, he's 4-1 against Houston in his career.
On the other side, Wandy is having one hell of a time living up to the expectations of being his team's ace this year. The guy usually struggles with walks, but this year he's struggling with hittability as well! Not a good sign, not at all. On top of that, Washington has pounded the living daylights out of the guy in the two times he's seen them (ERA over 9).
Obviously, I have more faith in the Washington lineup, and the backend of that Washington pen (even after last night). So it all comes down to the starting pitching. In my estimation, Lannan is being vastly undervalued, and Wandy is just flat out hittable right now. Washington for 1 unit!
HOU / WAS Over 8.5
I spoke about this game in my free side play.. So I'll be brief. Lannan comes in at 4-1 against the Astros in his career, but his ERA is actually close to 5.0. Every single game he's played against the Stros, he's had good run support. On the other side, Wandy has an ERA of over 9 in his two starts against Washington over the last three years. Definitely setting up as an OVER..
BUT... One red flag most people will pull out is the home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman. Dreckman definitely has had a string of Unders this year. In fact, I think 7 out of his 9 games this season have gone under. BUT, if you'll look back at my OVER play in the Milwaukee/Florida series from yesterday, I introduced a trend/angle that I'm going to apply today, yet again.
Dreckman has seen nothing but aces all year long.. Halladay, Buerhle, Jimenez, Kershaw, Aj Burnett, Matusz, Cueto, Jurrjens, Gavin Floyd...
Look at that list. Those are guys involved in all of his unders.. It's been nothing but great pitching guys. His strike% is right around the league average, and if the pitchers go up there throwing garbage, the game WILL go over. Plus, as i talked about yesterday... Anytime a home plate umpire is spoiled by watching amazing pitcher after amazing pitcher, he tends to squeeze the duds even more. And no offense to Lannan and Wandy, because they both have great stuff.. but neither are pitching well enough to be talked about in the same category as the aforementioned Dreckman success stories.
Play the OVER
Dan Bebe
TOR (-110) vs TAM
I went back and forth with this freebie for almost 3 hours today, but in the end, it's trigger-pulling time!
I just can't get past the combination of facts about David Price.
First, he's coming off back-to-back less-than-stellar outings. Is something mechanically wrong? I doubt it. Is he regressing to the mean? Most likely. Over Price's first 5 starts of the year, he walked just 10 batters, and allowed just 2 homers while striking out 27. Over his last 5 starts, Price has walked 17, allowed 4 homers, and has fanned only 21. It's not a steep dropoff, but it is a faltering across the board. We know his stuff is still decent, since he's still not giving up a ton of hits, but those Jays can score some runs, especially on the longball, and if indeed Price is going to continue serving up homers (all 4 that I noted above have come in his most recent 2 starts), Toronto could definitely put up a crooked number. The concept that Price is trending down is extremely attractive to me, and is ultimately the biggest reason that we ended up going with this play on Toronto.
The other note on Price that intrigues me is that he pitched a complete game shutout against the Jays earlier this year, and it's just darn near impossible to completely dominate a team a second time, especially in a different venue. That start came when Price was absolutely rolling, and I'm intrigued to see how Toronto adjusts. Price was also a -190 home favorite in that game, so now, off a complete game shutout effort against this club, Price is nearly a Pick? There's a reason for that - he's slumping.
Opposite price we have mister consistency, Shaun Marcum. He doesn't walk many batters, he strikes out almost a batter per inning, he doesn't give up the long ball, he doesn't give up that many hits, and he has nice history with the Rays. This is a wonderfully affordable price on one of the most consistent pitchers in the AL right now, and I think Toronto bounces back nicely off yesterday's late-game meltdown.
The Rays, despite that comeback win, are slumping, and most folks haven't caught on just yet. The Jays continue to play solid baseball, and if Kevin Gregg wasn't in the picture, they might be the best in the AL East. Yes, I went there.
Black Widow
1* on Rays/Blue Jays OVER 7
Yes, we have two solid starting pitchers going tonight in David Price and Shaun Marcum, but we'll back these two explosive offenses to get the OVER 7 runs Wednesday. These teams combined for 13 runs last night as we had the OVER 9 as our AL East TOTAL OF THE YEAR. We only need 8 to get a win here and with the way these two teams have been hitting the cover off the ball, that should be no problem. Tampa Bay is scoring 5.9 runs/game on the road this season while the Blue Jays are putting up 5.6 runs/game at home. Toronto leads the league with 91 home runs in just 54 games this season. Tampa starter David Price has given up 4 home runs in his last 2 starts, along with 8 earned runs in 12 innings. The OVER is 5-0 in the Rays' last 5 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 5-1 in the Blue Jays' last 6 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-0 in starter Shaun Marcum's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Toronto's last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the OVER 7 runs here.