Craig Trapp
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Florida Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Florida Marlins
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Love playing against the bottom feeders like this Orioles team. FLA is only 5-5 the last 10 but BALT is a terrible 2-8. Lineup comparison shows us a positive at nearly every position for the Marlins today. Pitching might be a toss up but Matusz for BALT has not had a win in his last 11 starts. Nolasco for FLA is really good against BALT going 1-1 with only a 1.93 ERA. This one comes down to timely hitting which is a huge advantage for FLA!
Rob Vinciletti
Braves vs. White Sox
Play: Over 8.5
This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the over for road favorites off a road favored loss of 2 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, if they scored 5 or more runs and their opponent scored 5 or more runs in a home dog win. This system has gone over 9 of the past 12 times. Look for this one to play over the total tonight.
THE PREZ
Serbia @ Australia
PICK: Serbia
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There are multiple options on your end when investing in this World Cup 2010 Matches Soccer match. Pinny, 5Dimes and BetUS offers some of the best soccer lines and Bookmaker covers multiple world leagues, too.
On the outside looking in right now in the Group D pecking order, Serbia knows a win over the Socceroos would send it into the Round of 16.
OPENING MONEY LINES: Serbia -120, Australia +300, draw +330
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OVER/UNDER: 2.5 goals, over +120, under -155
Australia has Harry Kewell suspended after his red card against Ghana but will have captain Tim Cahill available after his suspension for a red card against Germany was reduced to only one game.
The Socceroos are a long shot to advance, with the most likely scenario allowing them to advance being a Ghana win against Germany combined with a victory against Serbia. That will likely be too much to ask for, but the Serbians will need to be more disciplined than in their first two contests in order to advance.
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After its win against Germany, Serbia will advance with victory regardless of the other score in the group. Look for midfielder and captain Dejan Stankovic to make the biggest difference in this game as the Serbs take a 2-0 victory, good for second place in the group.
BIG AL
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
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It seems a long time ago that Chris Carpenter broke into the Majors as a member of the Blue Jays. Actually it was 1997 and Carpenter spent his first six seasons north of the border before moving to the National League in 2004 (he missed the 2003 season). Carpenter may have thrown his best game as a Cardinal in this ball park in an inter-league game against the Jays in 2005, but overall his inter-league performance since joining St. Louis is not on par with the rest of his numbers. Since 2004, Carpenter is just 3-3 with a 5.10 ERA in AL venues. He's been a bit of a hard-luck starter recently as despite a 3.15 ERA in his last three starts, the Cards are just 1-2 in those games. Lefthander Ricky Romero gets the call for the Jays, and although he has never faced the Cards before in his career, Romero is probably looking forward to this opportunity as in five inter-league appearances (all starts), Romero is 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP (32 Ks and 10 BBs in 32 innings) vs. the NL. Romero is also red-hot right now. He stumbled badly in his start on May 25 against the Angels but in four starts since then he has gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The Jays are 13-5 in their last 18 home games. Take Toronto.
MARC LAWRENCE
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San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
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The Astros and Giants meet in Game Three of their three game series in Houston this evening when Brett Myers matches services with Barry Zito in this matchup of left-handers. When Myers takes the mound he'll do so knowing he is 6-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his last six home team starts. He's also 9-6 in his career team starts at home during the month of June. In his best form in a long while, we'll back Myers and the Astros here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.
Dennis Macklin
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Padres vs. Rays
Play: Over 8.5
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Strangely enough, the Padres are 20-8 under on the road yet 9-2 over in Interleague play, feasting on Junior Circuit pitching. The Friars will be happy to see Ray's James Shields who rocks 0-5 (8.49) badge in his L5. The visitors counter with Kevin Correia 9.16 ERA over four starts. Don't blink or you'll miss your ticket go OVER the total.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins -118
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Nolasco runs into trouble against good power hitting clubs because he tends to give up too many home runs. But he has been great against clubs like the O's that don't boast good power numbers. In fact, Nolasco is 14-5 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons and 10-2 in road games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's per game over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile, even when Matusz has pitched well for Baltimore he hasn't received adequate run support. In fact, the Orioles are 1-10 in Matusz's last 11 starts and 0-7 in his last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. Yesterday's blowout win marked the 10th win in the last 11 meetings for the Marlins. Take Florida.
EZWINNERS
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Washington Nationals -$246
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The Royals starting pitcher Brian Bannister is not pitching very well, especially on the road. Bannister is only 1-4 with an 8.56 ERA in seven starts on the road this season and Bannister has allowed 14 runs in his last seven innings pitched. That is not going to get it done when his team is being opposed by Washington's rookie phenom starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg is living up to all of the hype. The 21 year old rookie has thirty two strikeouts over his first 19 1/3 innings pitched breaking the record for most strikeouts by a pitcher in their first three major league starts held by the Astros' J.R. Richard who struck out 29 batters in his first three major league starts back in 1971. I look for another dominating performance by Strasburg here against a Kansas City team that is only 1-4 in Bannister's last five interleague starts and 2-9 in Bannister's last 11 road starts. Play on Washington.
JR O'Donnell
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ATL (-120) vs CWS
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Atlanta Braves - 120 is JR O's East Coast' sharpie here boys as the Vegas Lines makers are showing no respect for a White Hot Sox crew. The Sox have won 7 in a row and the Mark Buherle led Sox are off a nice winner last night. They played long ball vs the Braves and banged out 16 hits in a 9-6 W, The Bravos return the favor vs. the Chi Sox Wednesday. The Braves counter Buherle with Tim Hudson 7-2 overll and he has a poor record vs. the AL. All that being said, the Bravos are favored tonight for a reason and the Winning streak ends for the Chi Sox
Greg Shaker
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MIL / MIN Over 8
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This current line offers a buying opportunity down to 8 runs as it is skewing that way currently 8.5 and -125 at most books. You might have to pay as much as -120 to get down to the level posted but it would be well worth your effort to do so as My MLB Totals Model has 8 or more runs scored here at a whopping 62.1% of the time. I had these two teams last night going OVER as a Premium Selection and at this hitter's venue, with a Good Weather Pattern, and 2 teams that hit lefties well, I am going to have to bet it again. The Twins Start can be and has been a Monster on the Hill this year. But not so much when he travels with better than average results only. Parra is very hittable indeed and the Twins have hit him well in their brief exposure to him. We must keep in mind that Milwaukee has has serious Bullpen Woes this year and especially here at this park and one of the many reasons why OVER has been the Rule, not the Exception here this year as well as previous years. At the posted line we have certain value but you must get the 8 for substantial longterm profit potential.
Frank Jordan
Tigers vs. Mets
Play: Under 8.5
All you need to know is these two teams combined for 20 runs last night and only one home run was hit. That tells you that they are in a big ball park and the pitchers were wild. 24 hits they combined for also so look for the pitchers to be on the and hitters to be off. Play the Under
John Ryan
Cleveland Indians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Cleveland set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. note that the Phillies have used what was to be the Opening day lineup just 5 times this season and they are still in the hunt. Kyle Kendrick is one of the reasons why and has posted a 2.52 ERA going 2-0 over his last 4 starts. Cleveland is just 7-20 (-16.9 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons; 4-18 (-16.1 Units) against the money line after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent over the last 2 seasons; 9-25 (-17.0 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons; 2-14 (-12.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Kendrick is an amazing 17-3 (+13.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Even Cleveland manager Acta is just 3-25 (-19.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less in all games he has managed since 1997. Phils have Rollins back after missing 55 games with a strained calf and they are looking more and more like a team that could put together a double digit winning streak.
TEDDY COVERS
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: San Diego Padres
San Diego went 63-99 in 2008, finishing in last place in the NL West. Last year, the Padres finished 12 games below .500, escaping the division basement only because Arizona was even worse. Most prognosticators expected similar results from San Diego again in 2010 – the reason why San Diego, at 41-29, in first place in the NL West, has been the single most profitable team to support in baseball this year.
The Padres have been particularly profitable in the role of a road underdog, winning 13 of their last 21 tries, dating back to April. We cashed a ticket supporting San Diego as an underdog last night, and they are primed to cash another underdog ticket tonight. Facing a slumping Rays lineup – Tampa is just 3-8 in their last eleven games and just 5-9 in their last 14 home games – look for another strong outing from the Padres here.
San Diego’s biggest weakness this year has been their lack of production offensively. But the team is in decent form right now, pounding out 27 runs in their last six games. That’s bad news for struggling Rays starter James Shields, who’s lost each of his last five starts, and who was forced to come out of the bullpen against Florida this past weekend – the first bullpen appearance of his five year career. Shields has allowed 35 hits and 26 runs in his last four starts; inappropriate numbers for any pitcher in this inflated price range.
2* Take San Diego.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Tigers @ NY Mets
Pick: Under 8.5
R.A. Dickey has bounced around several teams in the last few years but his first stint in the National League has been a huge success so far. The knuckle ball pitcher has a 5-0 record with a 2.82 ERA in six starts since being called up and his arrival has coincided with a big run from the Mets back into contention in the NL East. Dickey has 31 strikeouts in just over 38 innings of work while allowing only two home runs, including no home runs allowed at Citi Field, where his ERA is just 2.19. The ‘under’ has also hit in four of the six starts that Dickey has made.
The ‘under’ is 19-14-1 in home games for the Mets as only 7.5 runs per game are being scored at Citi Field. Only 40 home runs have been hit there, the second lowest total in all of baseball. This match-up will also feature two of the best bullpens in baseball as Detroit owns a 2.88 bullpen ERA, best in the American League and the Mets have a solid 3.67 bullpen ERA. The ‘under’ is 11-5-1 in the last 17 Mets games overall and New York opponents have not topped six runs in any of the last 16 games, topping four runs only four times in that span.
Jeremy Bonderman is just 3-4 on the season but after being plagued by injuries the past three years, Bonderman has rectified his career. In seven of his last eight starts he has delivered a quality outing, allowing as many as three runs just twice in those eight games. Bonderman owns a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and in two of his last three road starts he just allowed one run. Both interleague starts for Bonderman have been successful this season, allowing only four runs, eleven hits, and one walk in 14 innings of work.
Detroit has been hitting for a high batting average but the run production has not always been there. The Tigers average 4.5 runs per game but just barely over four runs per game on the road. The Tigers have produced in the past three series but a look at the competition shows why, facing series with Pittsburgh, Washington, and Arizona in the last three match-ups with all games at home. Over the last twelve road games the Tigers have averaged just over 3.5 runs per game so the scoring should drop this week, particularly in this ballpark.
Jack Jones
Florida Marlins -113
I'll back the better team tonight in the Florida Marlins to beat the Baltimore Orioles. As you know, the Orioles are the worst team in baseball at 19-51 this season and it's not getting any better as they've lost 8 of their last 10 games as well. Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco is a respectable 3-2 with a 4.54 ERA on the road this season and he'll certainly welcome this start against the league's worst team. The Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with Baltimore.
Brian Matusz is 2-7 with a 4.67 ERA this season, and the Orioles are just 3-11 in his 14 starts this year. Baltimore is also just 1-5 in Matusz's 6 home starts as well. Nolasco is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Orioles, and he faced them once last season in interleague play pitching 7 innings without allowing a single earned run to get the victory in a 5-2 triumph. Nolasco is 10-2 against the money line in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 5-1 in Nolascos last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 1-10 in Matusz's last 11 starts overall. Take Florida Wednesday.