Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 30,2010

Frank Jordan
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Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox
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Chicago White Sox evened up the series with the Royals with a 4-3 win on Tuesday night. The rubber match looks good by name with Peavy up against Greinke, but they are a combined 10-13 and both with era's over 3.70. Peavy is 2-0 in two starts against the Royals with an era of 2.35. Greinke hasn't faced the White Sox this year and the Royals are 2-6 over his last 8 starts. Look for these two to throw gems with the White Sox scratching out a run late to take the game and series 2-1. Play Chicago White Sox

Cajun Sports
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants need a win here on Wednesday night and they will hang their hopes on Jonathan Sanchez who has struggled against the Dodgers in his career. This season he is 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a solid 5-2 at home with an ERA of 2.62. LA will counter with Vicente Padilla who is 1-2 on the season with a 6.09 ERA, which includes a record of 0-1 on the road, and an ERA of 8.10. The Giants are 17-3 in home games after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last 2 seasons. We look for San Francisco to right the ship here and grab a victory in Game 3 of this series.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Francisco Giants 4 LA Dodgers 3

Craig Trapp
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Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox
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As we always preach value is king in sports betting specially when playing baseball. Today all the value is on the hot CHW as they try and continue their 12-1 winning run. They turn to really hot Peavy as he goes for his 4th win in a row (3-0 L3 outings with a 0.78 ERA). KC turns to last years cy young winner Grienke to settle today's rubber match. He is not great against the CHW in his career, 5-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 19 starts. Lets take the much hotter lineup verse what is a pretty even pitching matchup. Peavy once was thought of us best pitcher in league and Grienke is too erratic to be favored today.

Rob Vinciletti
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White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Under 7.5
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This game fits an under system that pertains to short home favorites like KC that are off 1 run home dog losses, vs opponents that are off a road favored win, if both teams scored 4 or less runs. These two teams can be anemic on offense. This year 4 of the 5 games here have played under the total. Tonight's game pits a pair of starters who have been pitching real well of late. J. Peavy makes the start for the Whitesox. Over his last 3 starts Peavy has a 0.78 era and has been moving the ball around much better than he was earlier in the year. KC Counters with Z. Greinke. Greinke has started to pick it up as well and he has a solid 2.62 era over his past few starts. Look for a low scoring game here tonight. On Wednesday I have the MLB Dog of the year. This dog is backed with a Powerful Dog system and a Big pitching edge. A dog with bite that wins outright.

BIG AL
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Rangers @ Angels
PICK: Under 9.5
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When I saw that the Rangers were calling up a minor leaguer by the name of Omar Beltre to start this game my initial reaction was that Texas had gone to the well to bring up yet another in a long line of talented, YOUNG pitchers. But when I looked up Beltre's history I saw that he's been in the minors leagues since he was 18 years old and that was 10 years ago! He's had stints at just about every level, including three seasons playing for the Rangers in the Dominican Summer League. The 28-year-old Dominican also has suspicious gaps in his professional resume, having missed every third year of professional ball since 2000. But the reality is that he's actually a talented OLDER player. And the gaps in his resume were mainly due (I presume) to the reason he's not made an appearance in the Majors: He actually was banned from the USA for five years after getting caught up in a human trafficking ring in the Dominican Republic! But Beltre's now past that penalty, and the Rangers look like they have a solid talent. So, with both Rich Harden and Derek Holland still on the DL, the Rangers needed another starter tonight and Beltre gets the call. Unfortunately, despite the ripe age and the pro-ball experience that comes with it, Beltre couldn't win a single game at AAA this year (0-5), despite 15 appearances and five starts. But his ERA was a solid 1.25 in those five starts, so the skills are there. Angels' lefthander Scott Kazmir looked like he had turned things around when June came as the veteran southpaw pitched very well to start the month and won his first four starts before taking a step backward in his last outing on June 24 in inter-league play against the Dodgers. But Kazmir has a very good history against Texas (6-2 with a 2.37 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 68 innings) so he's an excellent candidate to bounce back tonight against the biggest rival in the division. Take the 'Under.'

Info Plays

3* on Cleveland Indians +121
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Reasons the Indians win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This is a 54-15 ML System hitting 78.3% over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Jesse Litsch is 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA and 1.800 WHIP this season for Toronto. He should not be favored against the Indians in this game. Aaron Laffey beat the Blue Jays in his only lifetime start against them. Laffey pitched 7 shutout innings to get the win in a 12-0 blowout victory. Toronto is just 2-7 in their last 9 games. Bet Cleveland at home as they look to win their 4th straight.

Jim Feist
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Take: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers have their offense back in gear, ranked sixth in the NL in runs scored. The big problem for them has been quality starts, but Vicente Padilla goes here with good overall numbers: 36 hits, 8 walks in 34 innings pitched, 34 strikeouts. He faces a weak San Francisco offense that is 11th in runs scored, 12th in slugging. Jonathan O. Sanchez goes for the Giants, but the Dodgers have owned him, at 0-4 with a 5.95 ERA against LA. Play the Dodgers.

MTi Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are 7-0 at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and the Diamondbacks are 0-9 in the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two.

Steve Merril

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Detroit Tigers +1.5

Detroit and Minnesota wrap up their series on Wednesday afternoon in Minnesota. The Tigers will send Andy Oliver to the hill for his second career start. First time out, he gave up two runs and five hits in six innings of work against the Braves. Oliver struck out four and walked one in that loss. Minnesota is only 14-12 against lefties this season, and also just 13-15 in daytime games. The Twins are in bad current form as well as they have just two wins in their last eight games. Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is 0-2 with a 12.40 ERA in his last three starts. The righty has given up 18 runs and 22 hits in 12.3 innings of work. Slowey is 4-0 with a 5.93 ERA in six career starts against Detroit, but he got a fortunate win in a less than solid effort earlier this season against the Tigers. In that one run victory, he gave up three runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings of work. Miguel Cabrera (4-13), Johnny Damon (4-12), Carlos Guillen (3-7), Ramon Santiago (2-5), Brennan Bosch (2-3), Austin Jackson (1-3), and Alex Avila (1-2) all hit Slowey well. Detroit is 22-11 in the daytime averaging almost five runs per game. They have won two of their last three games, and we expect another solid effort here and recommend taking the Tigers on the run line in today’s game with the Twins.

Tom Freese

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets

Mets starter Mike Pelfrey is 13-3 in his 16 teams starts this year. Pelfrey has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. New York are is 10-2 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Mets are 16-7 their last 23 games overall and they are 11-4 their last 15 games vs. righty starters. Florida pitcher Chris Volstad is 5-10 this year in his 15 starts. The Marlins are 10-26 their last 36 games as home underdogs. The Marlins are 1-8 in the last 9 starts made by Chris Volstad and they are 3-10 their last 13 games vs. righty starters.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -125

After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Blue Jays to get back in the win column tonight. Laffey has struggled in the pen and he struggled in his first start since getting called up from Triple-A. The Indians are now 0-7 in Laffey's last 7 starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 3-15 in his last 18 starts as an underdog. Toronto sends Litsch to the hill. He has been inconsistent in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he has showed glimpses. He looked great in a 3-0 shutout win over San Francisco on June 19 before getting shelled by Philly in his next start. I expect him to bounce back tonight, and it will be to his benefit that the Indians haven't seen him. Toronto is 18-6 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, winning by an average score of 6.3 to 3.0 in these games. It is also worth noting that the Indians are only 15-43 in their last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Toronto in this bounce back spot.

Greg Shaker

STL (-138) vs ARI

It would probably be best to get this one as soon as possible as I do thing that this line will go upward. I may or may not be right about that but I do think I am right about the value this one offers. We do know that the Cardinal Pitcher is NOT the cream of the crop but his team is right here at Busch Stadium with one of the best home marks in either league. They will be playing a team that has struggled mightily when they have traveled. Arizona will call up righthander Barry Enright from Double A Mobile to make his major league debut Wednesday. The move comes following the team's decision to push scheduled starter Edwin Jackson to Friday due to his No-Hitter in which he threw a lot of pitches. How often does an AA Guy make the jump and be successful? Not often and of course we will then see the AZ Pen which is THE WORST Group of Throwers in either league. No Brainer Time for this one Fellas. While laying this kind of number is not the rule for me, my MLB Model has STL winning at just Over 65.4% and that is longterm profit stuff.

JR O'Donnell

HOU (+145) vs MIL

Mlb free bomb goes ugly again June 30th as we are playing Wandy Rodriguez and the 30-48 Stros + 145 vs a Milwaukee Brewers club as this is a sharp side freebie from the Express!! The Astros will hit the over rated Dave Bush who sports a 3-5 mark and 4.54 ERA. He is on our low list of pitchers and we have been going against him all season long , Wandy Rodriguez is sneaky and he has bounced back nicely since a bad stretch 10 + ERA in 3 loss stretch. The boys from Houston are a nice gut play from the Express and we are shooting for 5 in a row on the free side!! Jr's sharp side is on the Stros + 145 as we are going ugly today!!

Denver Money

STL (-138) vs ARI

Jeff Suppan may not be the best pitcher the Cardinals have, but he is facing Barry Enright who is making his debut today in place of Edwin Jackson. The Cardinals have been swinging the bat better in their past few weeks and I look for them to jump on Enright early today. If you can get this game in early I would suggest that as this line should move as we get closer to the first pitch today.