Tony George
White Sox +106
Going to this game tonight in person, and went last night where I dumped a play on KC and got beat. The White Sox bullpen is eating up KC, and while Greinke is starting, not sold on KC providing run support in this one, as the White Sox just seem to have their number, and KC cannot finish it at the plate. Jake Peavy is on fire for the White Sox winning his last 3 outings with an ERA of 0.79. Enough said.
Dave Cokin
Rockies at Padres
Toronto It’s been a great trip to San Diego for the surging Rockies, winning the first two games. They can go for the sweep with Jeff Francis, who has been sharp with a 3.53 ERA on the season despite pitching half his games in Coors Field. The offense is hot, scoring 16 runs in the two games here. Play the Rockies.
INSIDER ANGLES
WHITE SOX vs. ROYALS
Most of the time, a total of 7.5 is considered to be low for an American League game, but we feel that reaching this normally easily attainable total will be a tall order Wednesday when Jake Peavy of the Chicago White Sox faces reining Cy Young Winner Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals.
Greinke may be an inexplicable 3-8 this season, but he still has a 3.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, so his poor record is a direct result of the Royals not giving him any runs. He is approaching his Cy Young form lately, as he has a 2.62 ERA and a miniscule 0.83 WHIP in his last three starts allowing only 18 hits while recording 23 strikeouts against just two walks in 24 innings.
Believe it or not, Peavy has been even better than Greinke as of late, as he is finally paying some dividends for the White Sox after being a disappointment since being acquired from the San Diego Padres last year in mid-season. Peavy has tossed 16 scoreless innings in his last two starts while allowing just six total hits with 16 strikeouts and four walks. He has also allowed a total of four runs and 18 hits in 30 innings over his last four outings.
As if the offenses will not have a hard enough time with these two elite starters that are both on top of their game, both bullpens have also been in peak form recently, so the batters will not get much of a breather late in the game. The White Sox bullpen has a 2.31 ERA over the last 10 games while the Kansas City pen has a 2.39 ERA over this same span.
Not surprisingly then, both clubs are on nice Under runs, with the Under going 8-2 in the last 10 White Sox games and 6-1 in the last seven Kansas City contests. Look for that Under pattern to continue for at least one more game here.
Pick: White Sox/Royals Under 7
WUNDERDOG
Game: Detroit at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -160
The Detroit Tigers have struggled all season long on the road and, with starting a rookie pitcher against a Minnesota team that is tough at home, is a monumental task. Kevin Slowey almost always delivers a well pitched game at home and as a result the Twins are 21-6 in his last 27 starts at home. The Tigers have been at their worst playing on the road as a dog where they are just 19-41 over their last 60 in this spot. They have also begun to struggle against righthand pitching at just 1-6 in their last seven. The Twins have eaten up lefthand pitching and have now put together a 39-15 mark against them at home. A tough spot for a rookie. I'll go with the Twins here.
Hollywood Sports
Nationals at Braves
Prediction: Over
Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens has been out since April 30th with a strained left hamstring but is ready to make his return in this outing. While it is unclear if Jurrjens is ready to face major league hitting, we do know that he has not been his previous self this season as evidenced by his 0-3 record along with a 6.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Washington sends out J.D. Martin who, despite an 0-3 record, has a nice 3.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But we are concerned about his opponent's batting average of .287 so far this season. Martin sported a more modest 4.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last season.
On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Martin and Jurrjens have high ISO's of .180 and .198 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record & ERA produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Larry Ness
New York Mets at Florida Marlins
Prediction: New York Mets
The Marlins have taken the first two games of this three-game set in San Juan, 10-3 and 7-6. Florida announced that Edwin Rodriguez will be the team's manager for the remainder of the season Tuesday, which should give the club some sense of stability. However, the Marlins remain 7 1/2 games behind the first-place Braves plus are five games back of the Phils and six back of the Mets. The Mets had won 12 of 13 but last night's loss makes it six losses in their last 10 games. To the rescue comes Mike Pelfrey, who is 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 15 starts this season. The Mets are 12-3 in his starts, making him the second-best "money-maker" in MLB at plus-$1,031 (only Jimenez is better). Florida counters with Chris Volstad, who is 4-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 15 starts (team is a WOEFUL 4-11). He's 1-5 with a 4.62 ERA over his last nine starts, with the Marlins going 1-8 in those games. The only reason I'm not making a bigger play on Pelfrey is that he's 0-6 with a 5.82 ERA in nine starts (team is 1-8) against the Marlins since defeating them in his major league debut July 8, 2006. The way Pelfrey's pitched this year, I believe that's "old news" but it scares me enough to make this just a small play.
John Ryan
Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Texas Rangers
5* graded play on Texas as they take on LA angles set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. As we said in so many recent articles and research reports we strongly believe that Texas will win the AL Pennant this year. There are a ton of reasons why, but let’s focus on this game first. Texas is a solid 20-6 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in June games this season. Angels are an imperfect 0-6 (-8.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a one run win this season. Washington is 23-8 (+17.8 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. Texas is batting an incredible 341 with a 413 OBP and scoring 7.3 RPG over the past 7 games. Versus divisional opponents they are batting 300 with a 350 OBP scoring 5.7 RPG. Texas bullpen is perhaps equally as strong posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.262 WHIP. Over the past 7 games they have posted a 1.54 ERA and a 0.986 WHIP. Anaheim is not a strong hitting team batting 259 with a 320 OBP for the season and just 252 with a 317 OBP and scoring 4.4 RPG in 39 home games. Beltre has been considered one of the Ranger’s top prospects, but has taken 5 years to get back into the USA due to visa problems. He is quite good and has been extraordinary baseball at AAA Oklahoma City. Take Texas.
TEDDY COVERS
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Chicago White Sox
Jake Peavy’s full season numbers show a 4.71 ERA and a ratio of eight ‘non-quality’ starts compared to only seven quality starts. Frankly, I can’t think of more misleading numbers for any pitcher in baseball right now! The reality is that Peavy struggled early in the season, still recovering from last year’s injury woes, but he’s found his Cy Young caliber form here in June.
Peavy enters today’s game riding a 21 inning scoreless streak. In his four previous starts this month, Peavy has lasted at least seven full innings each time, while allowing a grand total of four runs in those four games. His strikeout pitch is back, with a ratio of 24 K’s to six walks this month. In two previous starts against the Royals, Peavy has picked up the win both times, holding the Royals to four runs in 15.1 innings or work. Facing a slumping KC lineup (three runs or less in six of their last eight games), expect another dominant effort here.
Zack Grienke has Cy Young caliber stuff as well, but his 3-8 record and 3.72 ERA are a far cry from his 16-8/2.16 stats from last year. Grienke’s career splits show his greatest struggles in the hot summer months of June and July, and his June ERA this year was, once again, worse than his April or May numbers. Facing a hot White Sox team that is 7-1 in their last eight tries as underdogs; 7-1 in their last eight on the road and 16-3 in their last 19 overall, expect the hapless Royals to find another way to lose tonight. 2* Take the Chicago White Sox.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -110
The Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series, 5-2 in Greinke's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series and 5-2 in Greinke's last 7 home starts vs. the White Sox. Plus, the White Sox are just 2-5 in their last 7 meetings in Kansas City. Greinke has regained his Cy Young form, going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.62 and a WHIP of 0.833 his last 3 starts. He was sensational against St. Louis his last time out. His other win during this stretch came against the best hitting team in the NL (Cincy) in their ball park. Peavy has an ERA of 5.24 on the road this season. He has looked a lot better of late, but consider the opponents. He's faced the Cubs twice and the Nats once in his last 3 starts. I'm taking Greinke and the Royals at a nice price this evening.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -125
After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Blue Jays to get back in the win column tonight. Laffey has struggled in the pen and he struggled in his first start since getting called up from Triple-A. The Indians are now 0-7 in Laffey's last 7 starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 3-15 in his last 18 starts as an underdog. Toronto sends Litsch to the hill. He has been inconsistent in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he has showed glimpses. He looked great in a 3-0 shutout win over San Francisco on June 19 before getting shelled by Philly in his next start. I expect him to bounce back tonight, and it will be to his benefit that the Indians haven't seen him. Toronto is 18-6 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, winning by an average score of 6.3 to 3.0 in these games. It is also worth noting that the Indians are only 15-43 in their last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Toronto in this bounce back spot.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Los Angeles Angels -117
We'll play against the Rangers' Omar Beltre in his major league debut tonight, considering he went winless (0-5) in Triple-A. Kazmir has looked a lot better for the Halos of late, winning 4 of his last 5 starts while allowing 2 or fewer runs in each of those wins. Plus, he has always had success against the Rangers, going 6-2 (9-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.37 in 11 career starts against them. In addition, the Rangers are just 22-48 in their last 70 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 19-42 in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels have won 21 of their last 29, and I look for them to take care of Texas again tonight.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's -117
It's safe to say that the Oakland A's love facing the Baltimore Orioles. Oakland is 16-3 in 19 meetings with the Orioles over the last 3 seasons, and they've won 7 of 9 on the road during that time. Kevin Millwood is 2-3 with a whopping 8.79 ERA over his last 3 starts for Baltimore, allowing 27 earned runs in 27.2 innings while also giving up 60 base runners and 7 home runs. So Millwood has been allowing more than 2 base runners per inning which has obviously led to a lot of runs by his opposition.
Ben Sheets has not been dominant this season, but he has been better than Millwood and Sheets is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts vs. Baltimore. The Orioles are the league's worst team at 23-53 this season. Baltimore is 8-31 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The A's have won 4 straight and are 28-13 in their last 41 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Dating back even further, Oakland is 56-19 in their last 75 meetings with the Orioles. The dominance in this one-sided series continues tonight. Roll with Oakland Wednesday.