Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, June 9,2010

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox and Tigers meet at Comiskey Park in Game Two of this three game series tonight when Freddy Garcia matches serves with Rick Porcello. Garcia takes the mound having cashed 16 if his last 19 team starts in this series and 12 of his last 14 team starts during the month of June. On the flip side, Porcello is winless, 0-2, with a 6.56 ERA in his career team starts in this series. With that, look for Detroit to come up losers for the eleventh time in Porcello's last 14 road starts here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

It is hard to follow up a performance like Stephen Strasburg had last night in his debut but Livan Hernandez has the edge tonight over the Pirates. Pittsburgh is a very poor road team as they are batting just .237 and even less against righties at a .232 mark. Washington certainly likes to play in front of the home fans as they bat .287 in Washington. Hernandez has a 5-1 TSR with a 1.73 ERA in home starts this season. Go with the Nationals here tonight.

Craig Trapp

Padres vs. Mets
Play: Under 7

Under was our premium play yesterday in the opening game of this series and it was way under as NYM won in extra innings 2-1. In fact these two have squared off 4 games this year and only once have they went over today's total. Tonight a great pitching matchup as Santana and Latos square off in another pitchers duel. Santana has been amazing lately even though wins have not followed in every occasion. Last time out against this same SD team he went 7 scoreless innings but did not get a decision. Santana has thrown 15 straight scoreless innings and has a 0.74 ERA over his last five starts. On the other side Latos starts for SD looking to keep SD in this one. A subpar outting last time out where he allowed three runs in five innings. But lets remember the right-hander went 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his previous five starts. Look for both these clubs to continue to struggle at plate as these pitchers dominate the headlines. Easily under this total.

Rob Vinciletti

Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Over 8.5

These two teams have a history of playing to the over. In the series 24 of 36 have flown over the total. For system purposes we play the over for certain road teams off a road dog loss at +140 or higher losing by 1 run and scoring 2 or less vs an opponent off a -140 or higher home favored win scoring 4 or less. The Brewers have lefty Wolf making the start and he has a 4.66 era with 9 of his 11 starts going over the total. The Brewers have a mediocre home bullpen era at 6.57 this season. The Cubs also have a poor road bullpen era at 5.21. The Cubs may need their pen tonight as they have C. Zambrano making the start. His second one back from his bullpen demotion and he has not shown he is the same pitcher as he was in the past. This one should be high scoring tonight.

BEN BURNS

Giants @ Reds
PICK: Over 8.5

The good news for Reds righthanded veteran Aaron Harang is that with the emergence this season of young starters Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and to a certain extent Homer Bailey/Sam LeCure, the Reds haven't had to rely so much on veterans Harang and Bronson Arroyo as they have in the past. Not that his team wouldn't want to see their veterans return to their form of a few years ago, especially Harang who used to be considered one of the top power pitchers in the league. As recently as 2007, Harang went 16-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 218 strikeouts. But since then, Harang has been on the losing end more than the winning end and his ERA has ballooned all the way to 5.43 so far in 2010. His strikeout rate is still decent and his walks are relatively low, but Harang has simply been giving up too many base hits and those hits are turning into runs with regularity. The Giants will turn to southpaw Jonathan Sanchez and Sanchez has been very effective recently, thanks to some pretty potent run-support in his last few starts. In his last two outings, the Giants have scored a total of 18 runs and not surprisingly they have won both of those games. Sanchez may not know where the new-found run production is coming from exactly, but chances are he really doesn't care either. Heading into today's game, the over is 11-5 in San Francisco's last 16 road games. Take the 'over.'

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Blackhawks @ Flyers
PICK: Under 5.5

For a number of different reasons I believe this will be the tightest game of the Stanley Cup Final as the Flyers will look to stave off elimination and send this one back to Chicago for a Game 7; as a result the "under" offers up a great investment opportunity:

Another high-scoring affair in Game 5; after losing back-to-back games in Philadelphia, the Blackhawks looked better in all facets in front of their home town crowd.

Important to note though that Chicago has in fact seen the total go "under" the posted number in 9 of 15 games this year when playing with two or more days of rest.

On the other side of the rink: Michael Leighton was pulled for the second time in five games in Sunday's loss.

Peter Laviolette has yet to decide who will start Game 6, but keep in mind that Leighton is 6-0 with two shutouts in six playoff starts in front of the home town crowd; Brian Boucher has not started a game since Game 5 against the Bruins.

Also keep in mind that Philadelphia is 9-1 at the Wachovia Center during the playoffs.

The Flyers have seen the total go "under" the number in 20 of 29 games this year after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous contest; which means of course, that after a sub-par effort, this team comes out and plays much more aggressively on the defensive side of the puck.

Philadelphia has also seen the total go "under" the number in all four games its played this season after playing to three or more consecutive "overs".

Bottom line: So far there have been 40 goals in this series; the most over five games of the Stanley Cup Final since 1981.

After a wide open affair in Game 5, I expect Game 6 to be a much tighter contest as each team will look to avoid making silly mistakes against its opportunistic opponent; when coupled with the extremely strong "under" trends that each exhibits in this position, you may want to consider taking a second look at the UNDER in this situation.

Tom Freese

St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright has allowed 4 runs total in his last 4 starts. Wainwright is 8-4 in his team starts this year. The Cardinals are 21-7 in the last 28 road starts made by Wainwright. The Redbirds are 41-18 in the last 59 starts made by Wainwright on grass. Los Angeles starter is 7-5 in his team starts this year. The Dodgers are 2-6 their last 8 home games when the Total is 6.5 or less. Los Angeles is 0-4 with Kershaw vs. NL Central teams and they are 0-5 in 5 starts made by Kershaw after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -143

I'll take Tampa Bay tonight considering how dominant David Price has been against the Jays and how poorly the Jays have hit lefty starters. First off, Price is having a terrific season, going 8-2 with an ERA of 2.29. In 5 home starts, his ERA is an even lower 2.02. Secondly, Price has never lost to the Jays. He is a perfect 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) when starting against Toronto with an ERA of 2.20. With Price on the hill, the Rays have beaten the Jays by scores of 6-0 and 7-3 this season. This really shouldn't come as much of a surprise when you consider how pathetic Toronto has been against southpaw starters, hitting only .202 and scoring just 2.8 runs per game. In addition, Tampa Bay has owned the Blue Jays, especially at home where it is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings. Take Tampa Bay.

Jim Feist

Royals vs. Twins
Take: Over 9

The new stadium in Minnesota is similar to the old park: great for hitters. That's one reason 34-year old starter Carl Pavano (5-6) has a higher ERA on the road (4.12) than at home. Kansas City comes to town with an improved offense, but the pitching is as bad as ever. Starter Kyle Davies (5.49 ERA) has been struggling, with a 1-2 record and a 7.20 ERA his last three starts. His last three road starts (2-1 over the total) Davies has allowed 16 runs in 15 innings. Play the Royals/Twins Over the total.

Brad Diamond Sports

Play Los Angeles over Oakland

Oakland lefty Dallas Braden can be an effective pitcher. His current 4-5 record (3.77) is not indicative of his overall talent. Braden does catch a decent angle here, being at home against the hard charging Angels. But, I just can’t go against Los Angeles until the hot streak folds. Opposing hurler Saunders (4-6, 4.78) of LA has been inconsistent this season, but shows off a decent outing at Seattle. Life time the lefty is 10-4 (3.73) versus Oakland. In his last effort versus Oakland, Saunders threw nine beautiful innings allowing just 4 hits and no earned runs. Also, remember the Angels have won 10 of 11 in Oakland going into Tuesday night action.

Matt Fargo

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Take: Kansas City Royals

This is a big number for Minnesota as it looks to make it two straight wins but I believe the value is squarely on the other side. The Twins are 19-9 at home following Tuesday’s win and going back further they have won five straight games at Target Field. Overall though Minnesota is playing very average as it is 15-15 over its last 30 games and the .500 records is just that, average. The Royals are certainly a tough team to play on for most based on past history but they are actually playing some decent ball right now as they are 13-12 over their last 25 games which includes a 5-4 record on the road. The pitching matchup seems to favor the Twins but it is not by much at all and I think it is pretty even actually. Kansas City goes with Kyle Davies who is coming off consecutive poor starts but this is a good opportunity to bounce back. His road work has been way below average but the royals have been able to get the job done as he is 3-1 and the team is 4-2 in his six starts away from Kaufman Field. This is in part to averaging 7.0 rpg in those six games and that type of run support will always gives teams a chance to win. After scoring just three runs last night, Kansas City should be able to bust out again against Carl Pavano. He started the season very well with a 3.30 ERA through his first seven starts with six of those being quality outings. He has only one quality performance in his last four outings where he has posted a 5.54 ERA. One of those earlier quality games came against the Royals which was a rarity. His one non-quality effort in those first seven games came against Kansas City and going back further, he has had his share of struggles. He faced Kansas City seven times last season with both Cleveland and Minnesota and he put up a dreadful 6.59 ERA in those games and in his career he has a 7.71 ERA in 10 lifetime starts. This has been a very profitable position for the Royals as they are 6-0 in Davies' last six tarts as an underdog between +151 and +200. Meanwhile the Twins are 0-5 in Pavano’s last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Kansas City Royals

EZWINNERS

Tampa Bay Rays -145

The Ray's starting pitcher David Price is having an outstanding year. So far this season Price is 8-2 with an ERA of only 2.29 and he has had a lot of success against Toronto. This season Price is 2-0 in two starts against the Blue Jays and has not allowed an earned run in seventeen innings against Toronto. In his career Price is a perfect 4-0 in five starts against the Blue Jays with an ERA of only 2.20. Toronto's starting pitcher Shawn Marcum has pitched pretty well this season, but the Rays beat him once already this season as they hammered Marcum for ten hits and four runs. Toronto is only 6-22 in their last twenty eight visits to Tampa. I expect Price to once again dominate the Toronto lineup as the Rays get the win. Play on Tampa Bay.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +1.60 over COLORADO

Great value on the Astros here, as this team is playing so much better these days and thus, they’re undervalued almost daily. That holds especially true here because Felipe Paulino is 1-7. However, he’s a quality pitcher with great stuff. Paulino has an ERA of just 4.01 and his ERA has crept down for five straight starts when it was sitting at 5.72. That includes a gem in Cincinnati in which he threw a four-hit shutout in 8 IP. Paulino’s ERA over his last three starts covering 22 innings is 1.23 and he also struck out 16 batters over that stretch. The Astros have won three of his last four starts but he has little to show for it. Overall, the Astros have won six of its last eight and they’re finally starting to score some runs and should be able to put a few tonight against Aaron Cook. Cook has recent games in San Diego and San Fran in which he allowed five runs in both. He has almost as many walks as strikeouts this year and his skills have been progressively deteriorating for two years now. The Rockies scored three times in the first inning last night against Brian Moehler and could not score again. They hit into five double plays and they’ve scored just 27 runs over its last nine games. Regardless of the outcome, all the value here is on the Astros and this has to be considered one of the biggest overlays of the year thus far. Play: Houston +1.60 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +1.05 over CINCINNATI

The Giants are warming up big time with five wins in its last six games while the Reds are cooling off. The Giants also have a huge edge on the hill tonight with Jonathan Sanchez against Aaron Harang. Sanchez has allowed a measly 44 hits in 68 frames for a BAA of .183. By contrast, Harang has allowed an eye-opening 87 hits in 69 frames for a BAA of .306 and that’s 120 points higher than Sanchez. Harang has been roasted in just about every start this season and he’s also been tagged for 11 bombs or about 1½ HR’s per nine innings. This one is pretty much a no-brainer and any take-back here on the Giants has to be considered a gift. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).

Brett Atkins

Delivered another free winner on Tuesday as the Braves went into Arizona and scored the victory over the D'Backs. Tonight I have another comp play, going with the Cardinals as they'll get this one in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.

This is a good value with the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.05 ERA) on the hill in Los Angeles. Tuesday, St. Louis lost a tough one, falling 1-0. Wainwright has a 2.39 ERA on the road and he’s got a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts.

Friday, he threw a complete-game two-hitter and beat the Brewers 8-0. He’s allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and three or less in nine of his last 10.

Wainwright has dominated the Dodgers lately, including all three starts last season, allowing a combined three runs over 23 innings. With him on the hill, the Cardinals are on runs of 21-7 on the road, 41-18 overall, 14-2 on Wednesday and 37-15 when he gets four days off.

St. Louis got hammered on Monday and then lost the pitcher’s duel on Tuesday, they aren’t dropping three in a row. Play Wainwright and the Cardinals in this one.

4♦ ST. LOUIS