Derek Mancini
Gamblers refuse to lose hope in Carlos Zambrano (1-4, 6.14 ERA), and I don't blame them, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with them. I'm still riding the Zambrano fade train until the big righty proves me otherwise.
You can rationlize his loss to the Astros on the long layoff. You can tout his career stats at Miller Park (4-0, 1.96 ERA). But you can't give me an answer for his 7.20 ERA in his L2 starts against Milwaukee. You also can't convince me he's going to outpitch Randy Wolf (4-5, 4.66 ERA), who's owned the Cubs in his L4 starts against them, going 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA.
Both teams come into this game batting .242 over their L10 games, but I like what I've seen from the Brewers their L3 games. They've won 2 of 3, and now have their second best pitcher taking the mound against a team he loves to beat.
When you take into account the price, which is begging for Cubs money, the play here is clear. Go ahead and pray for this to be Zambrano's "bounce back" spot, but I'm not holding my breathe - not in this match up. Brewers have been bad at home, but Cubs have been even worse on the road. Milwaukee (Wolf) over the Chi. Cubs (Zambrano) Wednesday.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Karl Garrett
Free play winner on Tuesday with the Yankees on the RUN LINE, and for Wednesday I will lay a little juice with the Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto.
Tampa took care of business last night against their division rival, and tonight they have David Price going against a Blue Jays team he has absolutely owned.
Price has made 2 starts already against Toronto this spring, and he has allowed no earned runs in his 17 innings of work against them, while compiling a pair of wins. Price is now 4-0 in 5 starts against Toronto since last season, with 1 run allowed or less in 4 of those 5 efforts.
Price just beat Toronto and starter Shawn Marcum his last time to the bump, as Marcum gave up 4 runs in his 8 innings of work.
Toronto is scuffling right now, losing 4 of their last 6, and they are just 2-5 in this year's season series against the Rays.
G-Man backing the Rays over the Jays on Wednesday night.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Scored a FREE winner on Tuesday as the Braves beat the D'Backs in Phoenix, improving my comp record to 107-88-3. Tonight I have another freebie for you as I play the A's at home to take care of the Angels.
Oakland crushed the Angels on Tuesday night and snapped a four-game losing streak to their neighbors from the South. Tonight, it’s the A’s turn to start a streak as they will make it two in a row with lefty Dallas Braden (4-5, 3.77 ERA) on the hill in front of the home crowd.
Oakland is just 2-3 on this homestand, but count on them to get this one as Braden has a 2.61 ERA at home. Even though the A’s haven’t won a game with him on the mound since his May 9 perfect game against the Rays, Braden has pitched well, allowing four runs or less in four of his five starts since. Braden has faced the Angels twice already this season, allowing a combined seven runs in 14 innings, splitting the two games, both played in Los Angeles.
Joe Saunders (4-6, 4.78 ERA) is on the hill for the Angels and he’s got a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts. This guys is either real good or real bad. He held the Mariners to one run in six innings on Friday, but on May 30 he gave up seven runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings to the same team. He’s faced the A’s twice this season and split two games, losing 9-4 and winning 4-0 when he threw a complete-game shutout.
Oakland is 21-9 in its last 30 as a favorite and 5-2 when they face southpaws. I’ll go ahead and play the A’s at home in this one as Braden will deliver a quality start and the offense will get it done.
2♦ OAKLAND
Tony George
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay -143
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Like the Rays here against the Jays, who struggle against Southpaws and David Price for the D Rays has been MONEY all Year as a solid left hand hurler. An ERA under 3 on the year, and only 2 losses in 10 starts on the year. Tampa 21-5 at home against Toronto, but the KEY in this game is simply that the Blue Jays struggle against left handers, and Price has been one of the better opnes in MLB so far this season.
Frank Jordan
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Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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This is a rematch of a game a couple of weeks back when Johnson and Halladay hooked up in South Beach and Philly won 1-0 as Halladay threw a perfect game. In this one expect more of the same a low scoring pitchers duel unlike last nights game that was won by Philadelphia 10-8. Play Philadelphia
Dennis Macklin
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Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9
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Carlos Zambrano made his first start for the Cubs since April 20th and was OK allowing three runs over 4 2/3 innings. Big Z should stretch it out some here. Soriano is doubtful and Ararmis Ramirez is on the shelf leaving Blue Bears with little to no pop. ChiCubs are 18-8 under on the road, 19-6 under at night, and 12-4 low off southpaws. Randy Wolf was 2-0 in 2009 vs Cubs allowing just two earned on eight hits in 14+ innings work. Barring total meltdown by pens, this should one should come nowhere near the posted total. Play Under.
Wunderdog
Giants vs. Reds
Play: Under 8.5
Jonathon Sanchez has matured into a very effective starter for the Giants. He has made 11 starts on the season, and has yet to give up five runs in any of the 11. In fact, he has allowed just four runs two times in those 11 starts. Aaron Harang opened the season allowing 22 runs in 20 innings, but since has settled down and has pitched to a much better 4.12 ERA. He has been most effective over his last two starts allowing a total of three runs. The Giants are 35-14-2 to the UNDER vs an opponent scoring two or less in their last game and game 3, which is usually the series finale, show them UNDER at a 33-16-3 clip with Sanchez leading the way at 9-0 to the UNDER. I'll play UNDER in this one.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Boston Red Sox
The Indians are 3-8 when Justin Masterson starts this season and he has not pitched well at home, featuring a 5.02 ERA as the Indians are 1-4 in those starts. Cleveland probably deserved to win last night’s game but a costly error in the outfield gave the Red Sox an expanded inning and the offense took advantage. Boston has now won 14 of the last 16 meetings between these teams and Cleveland is 3-13 in the last 16 home games.
Clay Buchholz has been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball over his last five starts. Buchholz is 5-0 in that span, allowing a total of four runs in over 36 innings of work for an ERA of 0.99. Opponents are batting .174 against Buchholz in that span and three of those starts came on the road. For the season Buchholz has a 1.31 ERA in away games and a 1.75 ERA in night games. Boston’s bullpen is without Jonathan Papelbon tonight but the rest of the relief corps has performed well in recent weeks.
Cleveland’s bullpen has been the worst in the American League all season long and in the last ten games the unit has an 8.80 ERA. Masterson has barely averaged five innings per start so there will be several innings of relief work required for the Indians tonight. The Indians are 3-9 in the last twelve games as home underdogs and there has been little fan support for the Tribe even with a big-time opponent like the Red Sox in town.
While the Indians are batting .219 in the last ten games Boston is hitting .302. The Indians have not been able to make up for the losses of Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera due to injury and Cleveland is batting .191 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching. Boston is 9-1 in the last ten games on the road and after a slow start the Red Sox are 17-5 since mid-May, despite facing several tough opponents in that span. Buchholz has been unstoppable and while the Red Sox are solid road favorites this is actually a reasonable price given the big advantages in this match-up.
Jack Jones
Florida Marlins +153
Josh Johnson and the Florida Marlins give a very motivated effort tonight in Philadelphia. The Marlins have lost 4 straight games, three coming by 2 runs or less including last night's painful 8-10 loss to the Phillies. It's also worth noting that the Marlins were on the losing end of Roy Halladay's perfect game a couple weeks back, and they cannot wait to get another shot at him tonight. Starter Josh Johnson was also on the losing end of that perfect game despite allowing just 1 run, which was unearned, in 7 innings of work in a 0-1 loss.
Johnson has been simply remarkable of late, going 3-1 in his last 5 starts. He has allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 34 innings of work for a 0.53 ERA in his last 5 outings. For a starter that has posted these kinds of numbers to be such a big underdog tonight provides us with plenty of value. Plus, the Marlins have won 14 of their last 22 road meetings with the Phillies and they love playing in this ball park. Florida is 12-3 against the money line in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Florida is 15-5 in Johnson's last 20 starts as an underdog. Roll with the Marlins showing great value Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New York Mets -146
The Mets are 21-5 in their last 26 home games, and I'll back them at home this evening behind the great Johan Santana. The Mets are 4-0 in Santana's last 4 home starts, and I expect him to be very sharp tonight having had 6 days of rest. In fact, the Mets are a perfect 4-0 in Santana's last 4 starts with 6 days of rest. The Padres are just 5-11 in their last 16 meetings with the Mets in New York and with yesterday's walk-off win, the Mets improved to 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Latos has been solid, but he's no Santana. Plus, the Padres are just 1-4 in Latos' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mets.
Nelly
Houston / Colorado Under
Felipe Paulino has a 1-7 record for the season but the Astros are 3-1 in his last four starts and in that span he has allowed only five runs in 28 innings in that span. Two of those outings came on the road and the 'under' has hit in each of his last three outings. Against the Rockies in mid-May Paulino delivered an excellent start, allowing just two runs and two hits over six innings in an eventual Houston win. Despite some struggled for the Astros overall this season the bullpen has done a respectable job as well. Aaron Cook has allowed just 12 runs over his last five starts and he has allowed just one home run over his last eight starts. Cook is the all-time Colorado wins leader and he knows how to pitch in this ballpark. In his home starts his ERA is just 2.63 and he also owns far better numbers in night games. Both Houston and Colorado have been strong 'under' teams for the season with the 'under' going 33-23-3 in Houston games and 34-22-2 in Colorado games. The 'under' is 16-10 in Rockies home games and 15-8-2 in Houston road games. The Astros are batting just .232 for the year in road games and Colorado's offense has gone cold of late with a .248 team average in the last ten games. In the last week Colorado is scoring just 3.3 runs per game while allowing just 3.3 runs per game and Houston's numbers are only slightly higher in that span. Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have played 'under' including each of the last three. The Rockies have also featured one of the best bullpens in the NL with a 3.16 ERA for the season. More low numbers should be expected in this game as totals are always inflated in Colorado.
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
5* graded play on Baltimore as they host the NYY set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore can win this game. One factor is that this game will have weather issues that may knock out Sabathia early in the game. If you want to play the run line on this game then take a look at this supporting system that has gone 77-37 for 68% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs against a 1.5 run line after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and is a team winning 38% or less of their games on the season. Yankees have not dominated poor teams like Baltimore. They are 145-123, but have lost 48.0 Units against the money line in road games versus an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse since 1997; 17-21 (-16.8 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs over the last 3 seasons. Baltimore is a solid 5-8 (+13.6 Units) against the money line after having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Orioles.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -101
After 3 straight losses, the Cards are due for a win, and I like their chances with one of the best road starters in baseball on the bump tonight. The Cardinals are 21-7 in Wainwright's last 28 road starts, and Wednesday has certainly been his day of the week as the Cardinals are 14-2 in his last 16 Wednesday starts. Kershaw hasn't been quite as sharp as Wainwright, and the Dodgers are 0-4 in Kershaw's last 4 starts vs. the National League Central. Plus, the Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Cards tonight in this bounce back spot.