SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (20-12) at San Francisco (18-13)
The top two teams in the N.L. West continue their three-game series at AT&T Park, with the Giants’ Matt Cain (2-1, 2.79 ERA) looking to end his struggles against the Padres when he opposes lefty Clayton Richard (1-2, 3.34).
San Diego stranded a whopping 15 runners on base and failed to capitalize on 12 walks, but still managed to squeak out a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Padres have climbed to the top of the division standings thanks to a 15-6 overall run, going 7-3 on the highway during this stretch. On top of that, Bud Black’s team is on positive runs of 8-3 against N.L. West foes, 21-8 against winning teams and 22-5 in the second game of a series. However, San Diego has dropped 38 of 56 Wednesday games and five of seven versus right-handed starters.
San Francisco has still won 10 of its last 16 overall, 14 of 20 at AT&T Park (10-6 this season) and 11 of 15 on Wednesday. However, Bruce Bochy’s bunch has now dropped six of eight divisional contests, going 0-4 against the Padres this season.
San Diego has held the Giants to a total of four runs in four meetings this season. Also, the Padres have won seven of the last nine matchups dating to last September, but the home team remains on a 16-6 roll in this rivalry. In fact, last year, the host won the first 11 head-to-head battles, and the Padres are still only 4-10 in their last 14 visits to AT&T Park.
Richard gave up three runs on six hits and five walks in five innings a week ago against the Rockies, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Padres lost 6-5 at home in 12 innings. It marked the 10th consecutive start in which Richard has held an opponent to three runs or fewer, and he’s got a 3.06 ERA during this stretch. That includes a 3-2 home win over the Giants on April 19 when he outdueled Cain, giving up a run on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.
San Diego has lost four of Richard’s last six starts overall and five of his last seven on the highway. He’s only pitched twice on the road this season, allowing three runs in each game over a total of 12 1/3 innings, with San Diego losing 7-0 in Colorado and 5-4 in Cincinnati. Also, the last time Richard gave up more than three runs in a game was on Sept. 7 in San Francisco, when he got rocked for six runs in four innings of 9-4 loss to the Giants.
After three no-decisions and a loss to begin 2010, Cain is now coming off consecutive victories over the Rockies (6-1 at home) and Marlins (6-3 on the road). He allowed a combined two runs on five hits with 14 strikeouts in 15 innings in the two wins. Cain has yielded three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts (2.44 ERA), but San Francisco has only managed to split those contests, including two losses in San Diego by a combined score of 5-2.
San Francisco has been victorious in 12 of Cain’s last 17 home starts, where the right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three games this year. However, the Giants are 1-5 in his last six against the N.L. West and 17-35 in his last 52 versus winning teams. Also, with their 3-2 loss in San Diego last month, the Giants are now 3-11 in Cain’s last 14 appearances against the Padres, including 2-5 in the last seven in San Francisco. For his career, Cain is 4-6 despite a stellar 2.91 ERA in 19 starts versus the Padres.
The Padres are on “under” streaks of 19-7-1 on the road, 11-4-1 versus the N.L. West, 24-11-3 against right-handed starters and 12-4 against winning teams. Also, the under is 6-2-2 in Richard’s last 10 trips to the mound and 3-0-1 in his last four road starts.
San Francisco topped the total in four of its last five games overall, but otherwise the Giants carry “under” trends of 10-1 at home, 8-0 in divisional games, 36-17-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 in the second game of a series. Also, the under is 4-1 both in Cain’s last five starts overall and his last five against the N.L. West.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in six straight clashes overall and 10 of 14 in San Francisco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-10) at Detroit (18-14)
The Yankees and Tigers are set to resume their four-game series at Comerica Park with a day-night doubleheader after Tuesday’s game was postponed by rain. In the first game, New York’s Javy Vazquez (1-3, 9.78 ERA) is slated to oppose the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (2-3, 7.50) in a battle of struggling right-handers. Then Phil Hughes (4-0, 1.69) looks to continue his outstanding season when he leads New York against Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 5.74) in the nightcap.
Detroit held off the Yankees 5-4 to take Monday’s series opener and halt a 1-4 slide (all on the road). The Tigers have now won six in a row at home, and they’re 10-3 at Comerica Park this season and 46-22 in their last 68 home contests. Jim Leyland’s club has also won six of eight against the A.L. East, five straight at home against right-handed starters and eight of 11 in the third game of a series.
The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, but they’ve still won nine of 12 overall, going 4-2 on the road during this stretch. The defending world champs are on additional surges of 40-17 overall, 40-15 against the A.L. Central, 48-15 as a favorite, 62-23 against right-handed starters and 8-2 on the road versus righties.
Detroit beat New York 4-2 in last year’s first meeting (in Motown), but the Yankees came back to win the final five clashes by a combined score of 28-11. Despite Monday’s result, the visitor is still on a 7-3 roll in this rivalry, with the Yankees going 4-2 in their last six in Detroit.
Vazquez has been a disaster in his second tour of duty with the Yankees, giving up 25 runs in 23 innings and failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of his five starts. After consecutive losses in which he surrendered five runs in 3 2/3 innings at the Angels on April 25 and five runs in three innings against the White Sox on May 1, the Yankees bypassed his spot in the rotation last week.
Vazquez is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA in three road contests this year (giving up five home runs in 14 2/3 innings), and he’s 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 career starts against the Tigers (2-5, 6.09 ERA in seven starts at Comerica Park).
Hughes schooled the Red Sox in Fenway Park on Friday, allowing two runs while whiffing seven in seven innings en route to a 10-3 victory. The right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in all five starts this season, and he’s 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three home starts. All four of New York’s victories behind Hughes this year have been by multiple runs.
The Yankees are 4-1 in Hughes’ last five starts against the A.L. Central and 5-0 in his last five Wednesday outings. Last year, he led New York to an 11-0 win in Detroit, scattering two hits and two walks in six scoreless innings. However, in his first two career starts against the Tigers, Hughes went 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA.
Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 31 starts as a rookie last year, but he’s struggled as a sophomore, posting just one quality start in six trips to the mound. Over his last four outings (three on the road), the right-hander has surrendered 22 runs (20 earned) in 19 innings (9.47 ERA). On Wednesday, he got tagged for five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss at Minnesota.
The Tigers have lost four of Porcello’s last five starts overall, but they’re 7-2 in his last nine Comerica outings. In three home starts this season, Porcello is 2-0 despite a hefty 5.51 ERA. Also, he faced New York once in his rookie campaign in 2009, giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings at home, losing 8-6.
Detroit has won each of Bonderman’s last three starts, though the veteran right-hander doesn’t have a decision to show for it. In his most recent outing on May 1, he held the Angels to two runs (one earned) on 10 hits in six innings, with Detroit getting a walk-off 3-2 victory. In two starts at Comerica this season, Bonderman has allowed two earned runs in 11 innings (1.64 ERA), and the Tigers beat the Angels and Indians (4-2).
With Bonderman on the bump, Detroit is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home and 4-0 on Wednesday, but 2-6 against the A.L. East and 1-7 versus teams with a winning record. Also, the Tigers are 2-5 in Bonderman’s last seven starts against New York overall and 2-5 in his last seven versus the Yankees at home. Overall, Bonderman is 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) against the Bronx Bombers, including a 2006 playoff victory.
Going back to Vazquez’s first stint with New York in 2004, the Yankees have topped the total in seven of his last eight starts in Pinstripes, four of his last five on Tuesday, four of his last five against the A.L. Central and 10 straight against winning teams. The over is also 5-0-1 in Hughes’ last six starts when pitching on four days’ rest. As a team, New York is riding “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 18-7-2 on the road, 10-4 versus winning teams, 5-2-1 versus right-handed starters, but the under has cashed in nine of the Yanks’ last 12 on Wednesday
The Tigers have topped the total in four of five against the A.L. East, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 4-1 at home and 15-5-1 on Wednesday. Also, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five starts, but with Bonderman pitching, the under is on surges of 14-6-2 overall, 3-1-2 when he pitches at home and 9-1 when he works on Wednesday.
Finally, the under has cashed in each of the last four Tigers-Yankees battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 1): OVER
ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Washington at NY Mets
The Nationals look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-6 loss and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. Washington is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+150)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.517; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.794
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 16.121; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.576
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+150); Under
Game 955-956: Atlanta at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.381; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Under
Game 957-958: Florida at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.231; Cubs (Silva) 15.102
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); N/A
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.688; Colorado (Cook) 16.178
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over
Game 961-962: Houston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.234; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.679
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-165); Over
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 13.215; Arizona (Jackson) 13.687
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 15.452; San Francisco (Cain) 16.506
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-165); Under
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.146; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.785
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 15.975; Boston (Wakefield) 15.292
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Over
Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.018; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.665
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-105); Under
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.476; Detroit (Bonderman) 16.723
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+150); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 16.264; Texas (Holland) 16.562
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Under
Game 977-978: Seattle at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.675; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.047
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over
Game 979-980: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.273; Kansas City (Davies) 15.096
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Over
Game 981-982: NY Yankees at Detroit (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 16.360; Detroit (Porcello) 15.686
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 983-984: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 16.542; Colorado (Hammel) 16.328
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Boston at Philadelphia
The Bruins look to bounce back from their 4-0 loss in Game 5 and build on their 9-4 record in their last 13 games following a loss by 3 or more goals. Boston is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125)
Game 19-20: Boston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.604; Philadelphia 12.444
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125); Over
Game 21-22: Montreal at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.586; Pittsburgh 12.405
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-250); Over
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers send Hiroki Kuroda to the hill against Edwin Jackson and the Diamondbacks in Arizona tonight knowing Kuroda has cashed in 14 of his last 20 team starts. He's also 5-3 in his career starts during the month of May. With Jackson struggling since coming over to the D'Backs for the Tigers at 1-6 in his team starts, and owning a sky-high 14.21 ERA in his last three efforts, look for Los Angeles to come up big in the desert tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners fit a nice road system based on their win last night. They have won every game vs Baltimore this season and have the edge again tonight. Baltimore has lost 4 of 5 times off 2 losses and all 5 times in Wednesday games. In the pitching match up both starters have struggled. Seattle has lefty Rowland-Smith and his 6.19 road era tonight, while Baltimore has Bergensen and his fabulous 9.94 home era. One of the few times you will see a pitcher with an era over 6 on the road have better numbers than the home starter. The Orioles are just 2-8 vs leftys and score just a shade over 3 runs. Look for Seattle to get the win tonight.
David Chan
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
Take the Rays and David Price over the Angels and Jered Weaver.
These are two awesome pitchers and I’m not going to be able to separate them with certainty. I can argue that either man has the edge. Price has the lower ERA and better ground-to-fly ratio; Weaver has the better K/BB ratio. Their WHIPs are a hair apart.
What I would say is that, headed into Tuesday, the Rays have played two fewer games and have nevertheless outscored the Angels 178-136. That’s where our edge is here, and near even money, it needs to be seized.
Lee Kostroski
Philadelphia Phillies (Moyer) – over Colorado Rockies (Hammel)
The Phillies knocked the Rockies out of the playoffs last season and Philadelphia won the opener between these teams Monday night. Jamie Moyer continues to pile up wins with four more already this season. Moyer pitched nine innings of 2-hit ball in his last start and the control expert continues to be effective with his off-speed pitches. He has a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season, having allowed only five walks and the veteran pitches just as well on the road as at home.
The Phillies are 9-3 in the last ten games and Philadelphia has won 13 of the last 16 meetings with the Rockies. Philadelphia has been a strong road performer this season and the offense-friendly Coor’s Field will favor a team with one of the best lineups in baseball. Philadelphia is scoring 5.4 runs per game with even stronger numbers on the road and the Phillies are batting .272 for the season. Colorado has a better run-differential than its record indicates but the Rockies have hit just .213 in the last ten games against left-handed pitchers, making this a tough match-up versus Moyer. The Rockies still have a solid offensive team but Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez will be questionable for this game, greatly depleting the scoring potential.
Jason Hammel was a pleasant surprise for the Rockies last season but so far 2010 has been a big struggle. Hammel had a 9.16 ERA in four starts before hitting the DL in late April. Hammel has allowed at least four runs in each of his starts this season and Colorado has gone 0-4 in those games. Colorado does have one of the best bullpens in the National League but that advantage should be negated by a likely short start from Hammel in his first start back from injury. The Phillies remain one of the elite teams in baseball and this will be a favorable price to back a great offensive team and a veteran pitcher that is still posting solid numbers.
BIG AL
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
There's no denying that the Rays are officially back this season, after being hampered by a lot of injuries last year. Tampa Bay won the opening game of this series 7-2 last night, behind Jeff Niemann, and will now hand the ball to young lefty David Price tonight. Price's mound opponent will be righty Jered Weaver, no doubt a worth adversary (Weaver held the Mariners scoreless last Thursday in an 8-0 win), but Price's numbers are ridiculously good this season. In six starts, Price has a 4-1 record with a 1.91 ERA, and that drops to 0.79 over his last three starts! Weaver's ERA is 2.66, which is great. But it doesn't rate better than Price's ERA. Tampa Bay is also a solid 13-2 away from Tropicana Field this season when playing a team with a losing record, and the Rays are a solid 145-99 vs. righties over the past three seasons. Take the Rays.
Jim Feist
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Seattle Mariners
Baltimore has the worst record in baseball, losing twice as many home games as wins. The offense has the worst on base percentage in the AL and has no way to manufacture runs, ranked last in steals. Starter Brad Bergesen has a lot to learn at the big league level, giving up 34 hits in 22 innings. He is not overpowering, with more walks than strikeouts. Seattle has good speed atop the order, ranked 5th in the AL in steal. They've already faces Bergesen this season, getting 9 base runners in 2+ innings off him (13.50 ERA). Play the Mariners.
Sac Lawson
MIN (-135) vs CWS
I know this is tough to do. Because at first glance this line looks far too high, and we all know how good John Danks can be. Fact is this though. Carl Pavano has pitched extremely well lately, and on top of it, the Minnesota bullpen is nearly 2 runs better in terms of ERA when compared to the Sox pen. With that being the case, the only thing we need to prove to justify a wager is that the Twins will be tied heading into the pens.
Take a look at John Danks, fantastic numbers, no doubt about it. BUT, he hasn't had his best stuff recently in terms of the eye test. And when looking at his numbers further, you notice that he happens to struggle against left handed batters. They hit 0.315 against him, which is rare, him being a lefty and all. Then you look at the Twins lineup... They've got tons of left handed batters, and tons of power from that side of the plate. On top of that.. They are literally the best team in the majors when it comes to hitting lefties (batting average wise). In his career, Danks has an ERA of well over 5 against the Twins in 13 starts, and he's just 4-5. I know first look, Danks seems like an absolute steal at plus money. Fact is, however, this Twins team has hit him before, and they'll hit him again. He simply does not face up well against this left-hand dominate lineup.
On the other side, as I mentioned Pavano has pitched 8 innings each of his last two starts, he's pitching very well. On top of it, we've got the better bullpen on our side, and we've got the better lineup hitting in their home park. I realize -135 is a bit high. I woulda loved to grab the opening line of -120. But this play STILL has value. 1 unit Minnesota Twins!
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers (-115) at ARIZONA
My FREE play run sits at 94-73-3 and tonight I'm coming with a comp winner on the Dodgers as they take on the D'Backs in Arizona.
The Dodgers are starting to string together wins like everyone thought they would when the season began. Los Angeles has won five of its last six and taken the first two from Arizona in this series. Look for them to get tonight’s behind the pitching of Hiroki Kuroda (3-1, 2.70 ERA).
Kuroda is 2-1 on the road with a 2.29 ERA and the Dodgers have won five of his six outings this season, including his last start when he gave up four earned runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings, but his offense saved him with the 6-5 win. Kuroda faced these D’Backs back on April 15 and allowed two earned runs through seven innings of a 6-5 victory.
Edwin Jackson (1-4, 7.32 ERA) goes for the D’Backs and this guy has been a train wreck the last three games, going 0-3 with a 14.18 ERA. Arizona has lost five straight starts and six of his seven this season. He’s allowed 25 runs in his last four starts, including three in his last start against Milwaukee on Friday.
The Dodgers have won four of their five games against the D’Backs this season and seven of the last nine. They are 19-7 when Kuroda starts as a favorite and 5-2 when he faces N.L. West teams. Arizona is 0-5 at home, 25-57 as an underdog and 7-22 as a home ‘dog.
I’m going with the Dodgers to win this one and Kuroda to shine in his outing. Lay the juice and play Los Angeles.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Chuck O'Brien
Cleveland (-110) at KANSAS CITY
That’s 15 of 21 free-play winners – and three in a row – after the Padres cashed as a nice underdog at San Francisco yesterday. Wednesday’s complimentary release comes from the American League, as I’ll back the Indians at Kansas City.
Obviously, both of these teams stink – Kansas City, after last night’s 9-2 loss to Cleveland, has lost six in a row and eight of nine, while the Indians had dropped five in a row and seven of eight before winning their last two games. So this play comes down to starting pitching, and I’ll confidently throw my support behind Cleveland right-hander Fausto Carmona.
You take away one poor start against Minnesota – six runs allowed in six innings against the best team in the A.L. Central – and Carmona has delivered seven straight quality starts, allowing just 14 runs in 52 2/3 innings (2.39 ERA) in those seven games. And in two road contests this year, Carmona has given up four runs in 13 1/3 innings, beating the A’s 6-1 and the White Sox 5-3.
Also, although he’s struggled in his last four starts against Kansas City (7.66 ERA), his first five starts against the Royals yielded a 2.38 ERA. And Cleveland is 6-2 in his last eight games versus the Royals. On top of that, with last night’s win, the Indians are 5-1 in their last six in K.C.
3♦ CLEVELAND
MTi Sports
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
The Braves are 1-13 as a dog when they are off two wins in which they never trailed and 3-21 as a dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers. The Brewers are 9-0 with Gallardo as a favorite when he threw more than 100 pitches on the road in his last start, including 3-0 THIS season and 6-0 with Gallardo when he walked at least 4 in his last start. Take Milwaukee.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in Game 2 of this double header is on the home side:
Jamie Moyer heads to the mound after pitching a complete game shutout on Friday against the Braves; I expect him to have a letdown this evening.
The veteran 47-year old allowed just two hits in that game; his ERA is 4.38 this season.
Moyer went 0-1 and allowed six runs over five innings in his only start against Colorado last year.
In the other dugout: Jason Hammel gets the nod for the Rockies; Hammel is coming off the DL to start tonight; "The injury was maybe a blessing in disguise," Hammel told MLB.com. "It gave me a little mental break. Obviously, when you get hurt, you're doing something wrong, so you go back and analyze. With pulling the groin, it means you're jumping and lunging to the plate. Your stride can get longer. Maybe I was trying to do too much instead of being nice and calm and relaxed, like I was last year when I was successful. I just went back to that and felt really good in my rehab start. Then in my side [bullpen session] yesterday it went even better, so I'm really excited. I'm ready to get back to work, that's the bottom line."
Bottom line: Hammel struggled to start this season, but had a dominant finish last year; he posted a 3.87 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP and averaged 7.5 K's per nine innings of work over the final two months; he's 1-0 with a 4.82 ERA in two appearances vs. the Phillies.
Although Moyer is once again defying the odds, it has to be pointed out that he struggles against the Rockies, especially at Coors Field; lifetime Moyer is 1-5 with a 6.16 ERA vs. the Rockies; 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts at Coors.
When taking all of the above into account, I'd suggest taking a second look at the ROCKIES in this situation.
Craig Trapp
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Florida Marlins
Two wins in a row for FLA has their confidence overflowing and today they turn to maybe their most consistent pitcher Volstad. Volstad has looked great lately going a solid 16 innings with only 3 ER's in last two starts. Both wins were over a hot hitting WASH team. CHC turn to Silva who might be the best starter so far this season. Bad news for Silva is that he has had to battle the last two starts giving up 9 runs in only 10 innings. Not good news for Cubs as run support has been a problem as this lineup just can't hit consistently. Look for FLA to jump on them early and win going away. Great value on the better Pitcher and better lineup.
Matt Fargo
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Oakland Athletics
We rode Oakland to a big victory last night and we will jump on the A’s again albeit a much smaller number. Oakland is playing some good baseball as well as it has won five of its last six games following a 1-6 run and I believe that should be taken more into consideration that the road/home records. The A’s are just 5-8 on the road while the Rangers are 11-7 at home but the overall records are dead even which means starting pitching will play a bigger role and I think Oakland has a significant edge in that category tonight. Gio Gonzalez gets the call for Oakland and he is having a very solid season. He is 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through six starts and of those, he has tossed only one bad outing. He allowed five runs in 4.1 innings against the Yankees and take that away and his numbers drop to a 2.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has allowed just two runs in each of his three road starts and in one career start against the Rangers which came last season, he tossed 6.2 scoreless innings in a 6-0 Oakland win. He started slow last year but finished stronger so this season is no fluke. He posted a 7.38 ERA in May-July but posted a decent 4.68 ERA the rest of the way. The Rangers counter with Derek Holland who is making his first start of the season. He started the year in the minors and while it went good, his Major League résumé is anything but. As a rookie last season he was 8-13 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 21 starts and 12 relief appearances. His lone start against Oakland last season was a dismal one as he allowed four runs on four hits and four walks in 4.1 innings as it happened to come against Gonzalez. The A’s are now 7-0 in their last seven games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600 while the Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 3* Oakland A’s