Tom Freese
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles starter Hiroki Kuroda has been on the winning side in 5 of his 6 starts this year. The Dodgers are 7-1 their last games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 19-7 in the last 26 starts made by Kuroda as a favorite. Los Angeles is 5-1 their last 6 games overll. Arizona starter Edwin Jackson has allowed 28 runs in 13.1 innings of work. The Diamondbacks are 7-21 their last 28 games as home underdogs. Arizona is 2-6 in Game 3 of a series and they are 0-5 their last 5 games overall. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +130
I'll take the Cards on the run line considering the success they have had against Wandy Rodriguez. The Cards have won 11 of 15 games that Rodriguez has started against them with the last two coming by 4 and 5 runs respectively. In addition, plays on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, playing on Wednesday, are an incredible 125-36 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 2.2 runs per game. We'll take the Cards on the run line tonight as they bounce back strong from yesterday's loss against a pitcher they have had a lot of success against.
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Phillies -177
Philadelphia's ace starting pitcher Roy Halliday continues to roll through the National League. Halladay is now 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA as one of the most dominant pitchers in all of major league baseball for the last five years is now benefiting from facing much weaker national league lineups. The Rockies starting pitcher Aaron Cook has not pitched well this season. Cook has a 6.03 ERA on the season and has struggled mightily with his control so far this year. Cook is coming off of another rough start in his last outing at San Diego on Wednesday where he allowed five runs on six hits in five innings while issuing two walks and recording only two strikeouts. I don't expect things to turn around for Cook in this game against Philadelphia as he has been hammered by the Phillies in the past. In eight games against Philadelphia Cook is only 1-5 with an ERA of 5.85. The Phillies are 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Play on the Philadelphia.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +1.13 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Until the Cubbies show us something different there’s no reason to back off against them. They lost again yesterday to run its current losing streak to four and overall they’ve lost seven of eight. Carlos Silva is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA but that’s a mirage that’s not going to last. Silva is a career stiff that is still a stiff but has been extremely fortunate. He basically has two pitches, a change and a fastball that tops off at 89MPH. Over his last two games he’s surrendered 18 hits and nine runs in 10 innings and that’s the Carlos Silva we’ve all come to expect. In two May starts, Silva’s BAA is .400 and his ERA is 8.10. Silva’s strand rate for the year is 78% and that, too, cannot last. This guy is an implosion waiting to happen every time he takes the hill. Win or lose, Silva as a favorite, pitching for the Cubs is a wager that should not be made. By contrast, Chris Volstad has been outstanding in his last two starts allowing three runs and eight hits in 16 innings. He’s had one bad start this season and it came in Colorado. He has yielded three runs or less in his other five starts and has pitched into the sixth inning or longer in all of those. Volstad has a BAA of .207 and if you take away that one start in Colorado, his BAA is under a deuce. Incidentally, Volstad has pitched twice at Wrigley and in 13 innings he allowed just nine hits, four runs, struck out 11 and walked two for an ERA of 2.77 and a BAA of .191. Play: Florida +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.39 over ARIZONA
The Diamondbacks are reeling big time. Arizona has lost the first five games of a six-game homestand, scoring two runs or fewer in each contest and striking out 49 times. The Dodgers are heating up and despite an average record they still have one of the best teams in the NL and one of the more potent line-ups. The Dodgers got off to a rough start and it happens but they’ve woken up and they’re dangerous. Edwin Jackson has lost three straight games. Over that stretch he’s allowed 35 base runners in 13.1 innings. He’s also allowed seven jacks in 39 innings and this park is not a friendly one to struggling pitchers. His strikeouts are way down, he’s 1-4 and his ERA is 7.32. Meanwhile, Hiroki Kuroda is a groundball machine and that bodes well in a desert start. He had a nice start against the Diamondbacks earlier this season (7 IP, 7 SO, 0 BB, 2 ER), and he has an outstanding match-up history with Arizona hitters. Things surely don’t figure to get better for the Snakes here. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.39 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.01 over PITTSBURGH
Homer Bailey is an enigma to be sure. Here’s a guy that continues to show flashes of brilliance and than throws a stinker. He throws a lot of stinkers and perhaps he just does not have the mental toughness to be as good as his potential. Having said that, he’s been great against the Pirates with a 4-0 record and a 2.25 ERA over four starts. Furthermore, the Reds are hot while the Pirates are cold and that has more influence on this choice than the starters. The Reds have gone yard 12 times over its last six games with an off-the-charts OPS of .862. Zach Duke is a bad pitcher on a bad team. His career BAA is .302 and this year he’s right on form with a BAA of .305. He has a disturbing WHIP of 1.71 and he’s actually more hittable this year than in previous years. The velocity on his fastball is perhaps the lowest in the majors and the only good thing about him is he’s left-handed. However, the Reds are 6-3 vs southpaws and Duke’s numbers over the years in day games are actually worse than in night games and this one goes off at 12:35 PM EST. Lastly, the Pirates pen has been used extensively and an extensively used bullpen is rarely effective. Play: Cincinnati +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.06 over BALTIMORE
How can you not play the Mariners here? Two garbage pitchers face off but at least the Mariners pitcher is a lefty and the O’s are 0-3 at home vs lefties and 2-8 overall. Ryan Rowland Smith has awful numbers right across the board but they’re certainly no worse than Brad Bergeson’s. In fact, Bergeson has had no strikeouts in two of his last three games and is coughing up 2.5 HR’s per nine innings. Bergeson’s ERA at home is 9.95 and his ERA against the Mariners this year is 13.50 and that game was in Seattle. The O’s have scored two runs over its last three games, they’re 9-24 overall and anytime they’re favored it’s absolutely worth going against them. The Mariners were everybody’s sleeper pick to have a great season but that has not materialized yet. However, they came in here and beat the O’s last night 5-1, they’ve won two in a row and they’ve scored 13 runs over those two games. Orioles favored? Are you kidding? Play Seattle +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.15 over TEXAS
Dave Holland makes his season debut and does so only because of an injury to Matt Harrison. Holland was rocked in 138.1 innings in 2009, when he gave up 26 home runs en route to posting a 6.12 ERA. He faced the A’s three times last season without much success, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Holland making his first start of the season laying juice is very unappealing indeed. The A’s have won three in a row, five of six and they beat a tough Colby Lewis last night. Gio Gonzalez has some nasty stuff and while he’s hit and miss, he’s getting better all the time. He’s pitching deeper into games and has a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts. The Rangers have had nothing but trouble against lefties this year and it’s unlikely they’ll turn things around against this tough southpaw. The value here is definitely on the pooch. Play: Oakland +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Alex Smart
Canadiens @ Penguins
Play Under
The Montreal Canadians and the Pittsburgh Penguins go head to head in the game 7 finale of what has been a hard fought series. The six previous confrontations have seen both sides display explosive offensive efforts and spectacular defense and goaltending. It must be noted the Habs pulled off the upset in the opening round against Washington, winning in 7 games and here they are again vs the Pens in the underdog role again. This time however, Les Habitant are exhausted and without key defensive component and catalyst Hall Gill( leg injury). This is a big loss for Montreal , but they still have a viable D , and a top tier puck stopper in Jaroslav Halak, who is more than capable of being a game changer . Despite of the upset posibilites, I'm passing on the side and instead backing the total in a contest that I expect to be a low scoring tilt. With both teams not wishing to make any mistakes that could prematurely end their seasons, a very conservative affair must be expected. Under is 15-4-2 in Canadiens last 21 games as a road underdog. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
We’ll back the Rockies in Game Two of their double-header today against the Phillies. After facing Roy Halladay, seeing a slow pitcher like Moyer in the night cap will be a welcome change for the Colorado hitters. And while Hammel’s ERA is through the roof (9.16 ERA this season), much of that has to do with one dreaful outing a few weeks back where he allowed seven runs and couldn’t get through the second inning. Moyer owns a 1-6 team start record against the Rockies, and they’ll come through with a win in the nightcap!
Play on: Colorado Rockies
Steve Merril
Athletics vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9
The oddsmakers are slowly adjusting the totals upward once again for the Texas Rangers. The problem is that they remain overrated offensively and they are hitting only .256 as a team this season. Texas hosts Oakland for game two of their series tonight. The Athletics will throw lefty Gio Gonzalez who is 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA on the season. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts getting wins over Toronto and Cleveland. Last season, Gonzalez picked up a 6-0 victory over the Rangers in Oakland giving up just three hits in 6.7 innings of work. The lefty has slowed down his pitching motion which has allowed him to throw deeper into games. Vlad Guerrero (1-8), Michael Young (0-3), Josh Hamilton (0-3) and Elvis Andrus (0-2) all have poor numbers against Gonzalez. Texas as a team hits just .216 against left-handed starters, going Under in eight of those ten games. Derek Holland makes his 2010 debut after tuning up in AAA. Holland was 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in six starts in AAA, while striking out 37 batters in 39 innings. Holland struggled last year with the Rangers, but he believes that he has fixed those issues. Holland took the loss in the 6-0 game last year giving up four runs and four hits in 4.3 innings against the A's. Rajai Davis (0-2), Ryan Sweeney (0-2) and Cliff Pennington (0-2) all are looking for their first hits against Holland.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
3* graded play on the Phillies with Moyer in game 2 of the double header set to start at 8:40 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Phils are a solid 32-15 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Rockies are just 3-11 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus a NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons; 14-31 (-18.6 Units) against the money line versus a NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Moyer has been excellent in road games sporting a 22-12 (+12.1 Units) against the money line over the last 2 seasons. Philly is one of the best and perhaps is the best offensive team in the NL. They are scoring 5.4 RPG in 32 games overall and 5.5 RPG in 16 road games. Moreover, they are scoring 5.5 RPG against RH starters so you can plainly see the day to day consistency that the Phillies exhibit. The ageless wonder Jamie Moyer is coming off a complete game shutout of the Braves and allowed just 2 hits. He rarely throws over 82 MPH, but uses movement and varying speeds to keep batters totally off balance. Rockies starter Hammel has been hammered big this season as he sports a 9.16 ERA and a 1.928 WHIP. he gave up 5 ER in just 3 innings in his last start against Arizona. The Arizona offense is hardly the caliber of the Phillies monster lineup. Take the Phillies.
Hollywood Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Take the Dodgers over the Diamondbacks Wednesday night. Los Angeles (16-17) exploded for 13 runs in Game 2 of this series to win 13-3. They look to sweep the series against their NL West Division rival tonight by sending the veteran Hiroki Kuroda to the mound. Kuroda has been good so far this season with his 3-1 record and 2.70 ERA. He tends to pitch better away from home. Last year, he produced a 3.55 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .232 -- which compares favorably to his 4.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .257 opponent batting average when pitching at home last year. And against Arizona in '09, Kuroda had a 2.70 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .182 in two starts. He should out-pitch Edwin Jackson who has struggled with his return to the senior circuit given his 1-4 record and rough 7.32 ERA. Over his last three starts, Jackson is 0-3 with a 14.18 ERA and a 2.62 WHIP. The Dodgers should hit Jackson hard as they have won 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starters. Arizona (14-20), on the other hand, has lost 5 of 6 against righties. The Diamondbacks have also lost 5 straight against teams with a losing record. And with Kuroda on the hill as a favorite, Los Angeles has won 19 of 26 games. Play the Dodgers tonight while listing both starting pitchers.
LARRY NESS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
It's a great pitching matchup tonight in Anaheim, as the Rays send David Price (4-1, 1.91 ERA) to the mound against the Angels' Jered Weaver (4-1, 2.26 ERA). LA won Monday night's game 5-4 (11 innings) with Tampa Bay bouncing back Tuesday with a 7-2 win. The Rays own MLB's best record at 23-10 and their pitching staff owns an AL-best 2.80 ERA. Price began the season behind Shields and Garza in the Tampa Bay rotation but he may wind up the team's 'ace' come year's end. He has held opponents without an earned run in two of his last three outings, compiling a 0.79 ERA over 22.2 innings with 16 strikeouts. The Angels are coming off three consecutive AL West titles but enter this game just 15-20. However, Weaver is their best pitcher and has been just terrific here at Angel Stadium since he joined the team back in mid-2006. The Angels are now 42-18 (.700) in his 60 career home starts, including the postseason. Let me also remind everyone that last night's Tampa win ended a six-game slide in Anaheim and the Rays have lost 12 straight series in Anaheim since splitting a four-game set April 27-30, 2000. Take the Angels tonight with Weaver on the hill.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners +106
Reasons the Mariners win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts. This is a 62-25 ML System hitting 71.3% since 1997.
2.) Ryan Rowland-Smith has not been spectacular this season, but he's been better than Bradley Bergesen of the Orioles. Rowland-Smith will get his first win of the season against an Orioles' team that is scoring a mere 2.9 RPG against left starters this year. Bergesen has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.908 WHIP this season. Bergesen already faced the Mariners once this season, and Seattle tagged him for 7 runs, 6 hits, and 3 walks in 2.2 innings. The Mariners won that game 8-2 back on April 19th. Bet the Mariners on the road.
Black Widow
1* on Oakland A's +115
Big mound mismatch in this one as we back Gio Gonzalez of the Oakland A's. Gonzalez is just another one of the no-names in Oakland who is an emerging star. Gonzalez is 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA this season while striking out 34 batters in 35.1 inninggs. Derek Holland makes his season debut for the Rangers in a spot start, and he wouldn't be a starter on many staffs in this league. Holland owns a 6.24 ERA in his career against the A's, getting knocked out after 4.1 innings of work in his last start facing Oakland. Gonzalez started that same game, allowing no earned runs in 6.2 innings to earn the 6-0 victory for the A's. Oakland has won 5 of their last 6, and the A's are 17-9 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The Athletics are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 1-6 in Hollands last 7 starts. Take the A's on the Money Line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +130
I'll take the Cards on the run line considering the success they have had against Wandy Rodriguez. The Cards have won 11 of 15 games that Rodriguez has started against them with the last two coming by 4 and 5 runs respectively. In addition, plays on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, playing on Wednesday, are an incredible 125-36 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 2.2 runs per game. We'll take the Cards on the run line tonight as they bounce back strong from yesterday's loss against a pitcher they have had a lot of success against.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -115
Bergesen is pitching well again, coming off back-to-back wins, and this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise considering the Orioles are 10-4 in his last 14 home starts, 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a home favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, Rowland-Smith has struggled to the tune of 0-2 with an ERA of 6.21, and that number has ballooned to 8.22 over his last 3 starts. In fact, plays against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, with a cold starting pitcher - ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts are 50-14 the last 5 seasons. The O's haven't won many this season, but they find themselves in a strong winning situation tonight.
Stan Lisowski
LA @ ARIZONA OVER
These 2 teams combine to go 43-23 to the over on their totals this season. LA gives up 5.5 runs per game while the Diamondbacks allow over 6. The Dodgers have gone over 16 of 23 against right handed starters. Arizona is 12-5 to the over as an underdog.