DUNKEL INDEX
St. Louis at Washington
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 0-6 in Edwin Jackson's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. St. Louis is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.713; Washington (Jackson) 15.436
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Under
Game 927-928: San Francisco at Cincinnati (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.222; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.857
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 929-930: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.848; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.587
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-175); Under
Game 931-932: Detroit at Oakland (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.745; Oakland (Griffin) 15.448
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Cardinals at Nationals
Play: Over 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both teams have tended to trend to the over when playing with a day off. The Cardinals have flown over in 13 of 18 this year in that role, while the Nationals have gone over in 10 of 13 with a day off. In the series 8 of the last 11 here in Washington have posted overs. The Cardinals have Carpenter going and making just his fourth starts. In his last 2 here he has allowed 11 runs in 11 innings going over in both games. The Nationals have E. Jackson going and he has gone over in 4 of his last 5 vs the Cards and has a 5.62 era over his last 3 starts. Look for this one to go over here in early action.
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals at Nationals
Play: Over 7½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St. Louis offense is 5th in runs scored, first in on base percentage and 9th in slugging. All that firepower will come in handy in a big park like Washington. That offense was on display the last game, a 12-4 rout. The over is 37-16-6 in the Cardinals last 59 games following an off day. 37-year-old Chris Carpenter goes for St. Louis, while the Nationals have Edwin Jackson's, who is not an ace and went just 10-11 for the first place Nationals and 4.03 ERA. The over is 8-1-2 in the Nationals last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when these teams meet the over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, as well as 6-1 over the total in the last 7 meetings in Washington. Play the Cardinals/Nationals Game 3 Over the total.
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Cardinals at Nationals
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Chris Carpenter is getting better each time out but this is still a Washington lineup that can do damage at home. Edwin Jackson is not exactly Mr. October, so St. Louis should hit some here as well. I'll go Over between the Cardinals and Nationals.
Ross KingFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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Carpenter is 6-1 versus Washington and more impressive is his postseason record of 9-2 with a 3.05 e.r.a but with only 17 innings under his belt this year i find these stats useless.Washington is 20-6 currently on Wednesdays and 9-2 at home versus St.Louis the last 3 seasons.Take the best team in baseball to take the lead in this series as your freeplay winner.
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WASHINGTON -113 over St. LouisREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chris Carpenter has made a name for himself over the years with three All-Star appearances, two World Series rings in which he was the game-seven winner in 2010 and a Cy Young Award in 2005. Prior to his September 21 start against the Cubs, he had been sidelined the entire season with various shoulder and neck-related difficulties. In June of last year, he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and had off-season surgery. He’s made three starts this year and there are many pauses for concern that include, age, career innings pitched, trade off of groundballs for line drives and fly balls plus a velocity dip from 92 MPH to 89 MPH. The Cardinals come in as the pooch in this game but a small one, suggesting that Carpenter is far too overvalued here.
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Washington will host its first playoff game since 1933. The place will be crazy. They had the second best home record in the majors with one less win than the Yankees. Edwin Jackson comes off one of his finest seasons with a 3.68 xERA, and career lows in WHIP, walks per nine innings and line-drive rate. His 168 K’s and 47% groundball rate in 189 frames further support his good skills.
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No question the Cardinals are dangerous but with a 38-43 road record and with Chris Carpenter’s issues, we’ll spot the short price on the Nats at one of the most difficult parks to win at for visiting clubs.
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Baltimore Orioles +155FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orioles are showing value at this price with Miguel Gonzalez on the hill. The O's have won 11 of his 15 starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 3.36. He enters the playoffs on fire. Baltimore has won each of his last 4 starts, and he has given up 2 runs or less in each.
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Gonzalez has also had success against the Yankees. He is 2-0 against them this season with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 0.805. Both starts were at New York.
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The Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 7-2 in Gonzalez's last 9 starts as a road underdog. Bet Baltimore.
Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Yankees -166FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Birds made a fantastic run to make it to the playoffs falling just short to NYY. It is an omen for October as they could get just a split on their home field. Gonzalez pitched well vs. NYY with 17 Ks in 13 2/3 IP. I strongly prefer Kuroda, who is the Yankees most consistent starter this season with a 3.32 ERA. In finishing the year 16-5, NYY went 10-1 on this field. Home field and experience are big factors in this victory.
Andre GomesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Yankees -164FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I like the Yankees tonight to get the lead in the series against the Orioles. They will face Miguel Gonzalez and I don't think that Gonzalez will be quite ready to play in game of this magnitude against a Yankees offense that is producing lately with the lone exception of Alex Rodriguez who shouldn't be batting in the 3rd spot.
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Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher w/ 42.6% FB% vs 34.9% FG vs 22.4 LD% splits this season so pitching in the Yankee stadium isn't a good spot for him anyway. He had solid numbers in September even though his FIP & xFIP numbers were worst than his ERA: 3.97=FIP e 4.40=xFIP vs. 3.09 ERA. However he faced twice the Blue Jays and the Red Sox once so the level of the competition for him wasn't that great.
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In the regular season he faced the Yankees twice with mixed results: in the first one he was crushed w/ ERA=5.40 & FIP=6.54 but he bounced back in the second start and dominated the Yankees w/ ERA=0.00 & FIP=0.95. However note that the "great start" was in a time where the Yankees struggled badly and went 4-10 in a 14-games span so I wouldn't grade that performance that high.
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On the other side I clearly trust more in Kuroda than Gonzalez. Kuroda didn't have a good month of September w/4.71 ERA but he was also one of the "unluckiest" pitchers in the league w/ BABIP=.355 - 5th worst mark in the league during that span:
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Highest BABIP numbers in September/October:
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Felix Hernandez .446
Patrick Corbin .365
Chris Sale .365
Ryan Dempster .356
Hiroki Kuroda .355
Edwin Jackson .354
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He has good numbers against the Orioles hitters w/ .214 BA & .559 OPS so I think that the Yankees will have a considerable edge in the SP matchup and their superior experience will prevail tonight against a tough Baltimore team.