Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 16

Jim Feist

NHL (53) CALGARY FLAMES VS (54) ANAHEIM DUCKS

Take: (54) ANAHEIM DUCKS

Reason: Your free pick for Wednesday, October 16th, 2013, comes in the NHL as Calgary and the Ducks meet in Anaheim. Anaheim has home ice and is dynamite on offense, 5th in the NHL in goals scored. Corey Perry scored two goals, Jonas Hiller made 30 saves, and the Ducks beat Bobby Ryan and the Ottawa Senators 4-1 Sunday night for their fourth straight victory with 56 shots! The Ducks are 20-9 in their last 29 home games. The Ducks are confident and have outscored their last four opponents 17-6. Calgary has defensive problems, 25th in goals allowed and one of the worst penalty killing units in the league. The Flames are 15-39 in their last 54 road games and 2-24-3 in the last 29 meetings in Anaheim. Play Anaheim on the Puck Line.

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Boston +117 over DETROITFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When you blow opportunities in the post-season, not once but twice, the chances of rebounding get slimmer by the second. Up 1-0 after Game 1, the Tigers blew a huge lead in Game 2 to give the Red Sox some life. In Game 3, down 1-0 in the eighth and with runners on first and third with one out, Detroit had Miguel Cabrera and Price Fielder due up with a chance to tie or take the lead. They both struck out. Now the Tigers are in an absolute must win with their weakest starter going, Doug Fister. In six innings against Oakland in the ALDS, Fister struck out one batter while allowing seven hits and three runs. Fister has great control but he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, meaning he’s usually at the mercy of his defense because he cannot get out of trouble on his own. Current Red Sox have 33 hits in 104 AB’s against Fister for a BA of .317 and an OPS of .878. The Tigers are in big trouble and it’s doubtful that Fister is going to get them out of it.
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Jake Peavy went a solid 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay, holding the Rays to five hits and one earned run in that important game. He walked none, struck out three and has had seven full days to recover. After injury-shortened campaigns in three of the past four years, where he continued to flash strong skills, it was hard to know if Peavy could find a way to improve his results while staying healthy over a full season. Peavy has for the most part succeeded on both counts by avoiding the DL after his July trade to Detroit while translating strong skills into strong results. Peavy did miss six weeks prior to the trade but he’s clearly healthy now and one need only look at his dominant start/disaster start split of 78%/8% to understand the extent to which he has thrived this season. Peavy went 12-5 overall with a 4.17 ERA, which on paper does not look great but under the hood, Peavy was hurt by unlucky hit and strand rates. Even if we call the pitching match-up a wash, the Tigers are in a huge psychological disadvantage here. Omar Infante has no shot of producing because his mind is racing and the Tigers’ big guns have rolled snake eyes when it has mattered most. Of course the Red Sox are a play here taking back a price.

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WASHINGTON -½ +111 over N.Y. RangersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Capitals are coming off a much-needed win to snap a three-game losing streak and while we’re not high on this Washington club, this one is all about wagering against this reeling guest.
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We can’t think of a single reason to stop fading the New York Rangers after this team gets blown out every night. The Rangers began the season on October 3 with a 4-1 loss in Phoenix and subsequently played four more games out on the West Coast before arriving in St. Louis for their last game. After losing in St. Louis, the Rangers continue their 10-game, opening season trip here and after five straight on the road things aren’t exactly going as planned. The Rangers are a mess. Prior to this year, the Rangers in-your-face - defensive style was an identity. That’s gone and now the Blue Shirts have no identity. They’re not good enough to be an offensive force and the loss of Rick Nash and Carl Hagelin sure doesn’t help. The Rangers have allowed five goals or more in three straight games. Over that span, they’ve been outscored 20-5 and overall, they’ve been outscored 25-9. Lastly, and it may not mean anything but the Rangers put long-time backup goalie Marty Biron on waivers yesterday, which of course allowed them to send him down to the minors. Biron was a popular member of this team for years and years and we’re sure the handling of this situation is not sitting well with his teammates. The Rangers are tired, banged up, mentally damaged and in a losing state of mind. Chances are that contagious losing bug continues here.

Big Kat Sports

Rangers vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5.5

We were actually shocked that this one didn’t come out with a total of 6 when the overnight numbers came out on Tuesday afternoon. Now we are even getting a small plus price on a game that play that just missed our final card. All signs point to Henrik Lundqvist and Braden Holtby getting the start between the pipes tonight for their respective teams, which was a big reason we had a lean toward the over this evening. Lundqvist has been awful, posting a GAA of 4.21 in his 5 starts while Holtby hasn’t been much better, checking in with a GAA of 3.56. Both teams have some offensive fire power, especially Washington, who has Alex Ovechkin (2nd in goals) and Niklas Backstrom (2nd in assists). New York will be without Rick Nash who is out with a concussion, but they still have Brad Richards and Derek Stepan, who are tied for the team lead with 5 points. Add in the fact that both teams are in the bottom half of the league on the penalty kill, and are top 10 in power play scoring and we’ll look for the goal judges to get a workout tonight at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC.

Jimmy Boyd

St Louis Cardinals +160

There is a lot of value on the Cardinals as such a large underdog in this game. St Louis has performed well on the road, posting a .260 batting average and scoring 4.9 runs per game. The face a Dodgers team that has struggled to put runs on the board at home, averaging just 3.6 runs per game. The Cardinals have the lead in this series, and I don't see them taking their foot off the gas today.

The matchup at starting pitcher is also very favorable for St Louis. Joe Kelly has a 1.34 ERA on the road this season and a 5-1 record in eight starts. His overall ERA on the season is 2.29, a number slightly better than his opponent in this matchup. There is no denying that Zack Greinke has had a remarkable season, but statistically his numbers are actually slightly worse than Kelly's. Kelly has also performed well against the Dodgers throughout his career, posting a 3.22 ERA, while Greinke has a 3.43 career ERA against the Cardinals.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers -166

It's now or never for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who look to avoid elimination in Game 5 of this series at home Wednesday. Given the massive edge they have on the mound in this one, I'm willing to lay the juice as Wednesday's free pick.

Zach Greinke is 15-5 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.080 WHIP over 30 starts this season. The right-hander has gone 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 14 home starts with the Dodgers winning 12 of them.

Greinke has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last 14 starts. The right-hander is also 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last four starts against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last eight games as a road underdog. St. Louis is 1-4 in Joe Kelly's last five starts as a road dog. Los Angeles is 12-2 in Greinke's last 14 home starts. The Dodgers are 10-1 in Greinke's last 11 starts when working on four days of rest. Bet Los Angeles in Game 5 Wednesday.

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -118

Boston can't be trusted in Detroit, where it has lost seven of its last nine, with Peavy getting the pill. The right-hander has relied heavily on quality run support all season, especially on the road where he has a 5.03 ERA. He often did not receive enough run support to make up for his shortcomings on the road as his clubs went just 7-8 in his road starts. Fister has been solid at home where he has posted a 3.61 ERA. The Tigers have won 26 of his last 36 home starts and 11 of last 15 starts overall. Boston got the only run it needed to spoil Verlander's gem, but it will likely need to provide quite a bit more run support for Peavy unless he can defy the numbers the way Lackey did. The odds are against it. Plus, I don't expect Boston to have much success against Fister, who has a 2.15 ERA in his last six playoff outings. The Red Sox are 6-16 the last two seasons in road games after allowing 1 run or less in their previous game. Take Detroit.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Dodgers -170

Even though Zach Greinke lost to Joe Kelly in Game 1 of this series, I will back Greinke at home tonight and lay the juice. It's win or stay home for the Dodgers, who trail 3-1 in the series. Los Angeles is an impressive 12-2 in Greinke's 14 home starts this season, thanks to a dazzling 2.11 ERA and 0.908 WHIP. Kelly has pitched very well for the Cardinals in the postseason, but he's been flirting with disaster. He's walked six batters in his last two starts and comes into this one with a not so good 1.418 WHIP over his last three start. I look for the Dodgers offense to provide enough run-support to get Greinke the W and send the series back to St Louis.

NHL Predictions

Washington Capitals Team Total Over 2.5

Most sportsbooks will give you the option to bet team totals. For this we need Washington to score 3 or more goals to cash our wager. If you can't bet team totals, I do like the game O5.5 +115 (but not as much as this team total we have).

The Rangers have started off the season 1-4, while the Caps are coming off a win that brought them to 2-4 on the year. The Rangers are last in the league averaging 5 goals against per game. They are also second last in the NHL in shots against per game, as they are giving up 35.8 per game. The Capitals are averaging 31.7 shots per game so far this year and 2.67 goals per game. Right now the Capitals have the best powerplay in the league converting at 36.4%. Henrik Lundqvist is the confirmed starter for New York and he has really struggled this year with a 1-3 record, 4.21 GAA and .887 SV%. Note that the OVER is 5-0 in the Caps last 5 dating back to last year vs a team with a winning % below .400. Washington has the ability to score goals, and with the amount of shots the Rangers are giving up I like the value here in the team total over 2.5 goals.

Carlos Salazar

Tigers vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 7.5

The bats will wake up tonight in Detroit. Carlos says to bet the over tonight with confidence. Fister is 2-4 with a 4.36 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox. Peavy is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA in five career outings at Comerica Park. There will be more hits and runs tonight as Boston goes against the Tigers fourth starter.

Tony Finn

Anaheim Ducks -1.5 -110

The Calgary Flames are playing against the odds and the Ducks on Wednesday night. Calgary will, give it their best college try, to extned their game point streak to six contests as they kick off their five-game road trip against the Anaheim.

The Mighty Ducks are hitting their webfooted stride and host the Flames with a four-game winning streak and we expect the Ducks, who have won 16 straight home meetings when squaring off against the Flames, to make it 17 in a row at the Honda Center

Anaheim set franchise records of 24 first-period shots and 56 overall in Sunday's 4-1 victory over Ottawa and are clicking on all cylinders. Calgary has not posted a regular-season victory in Anaheim since Jan. 19, 2004 and the history of their dismal showing against Anaheim continues

Ducks are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record and not only have the Flames lost 16 straight when in Anaheim, they 2-24-3 in the last 29 meetings when visiting the Ducks home venue losing by an average of nearly 3 goals.

Pre-season NBA

bookiemonsters
161-111-3 run
37-28-4 run last 69 plays

POD pistons game under 185.5

Big Al McMordie

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

Take Anaheim Ducks