Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 20,2010

Jim Feist

Hurricanes vs. Kings
Take: Over 5½

Reason: Carolina is not a good defensive team, ranked 19th in goals allowed and 27th in penalty killing. They gave up 5 goals the last game in a loss at Vancouver. Think they are tired out? Carolina will have traveled more than 15,000 miles and through 11 time zones before playing its first home game this season. They've allowed 8 goals the last two games and face a rested LA Kings team playing its third straight home game. Play Carolina/LA Kings Over the total.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Phillies/Giants UNDER 8

I believe odds makers have set this number a little high when you consider that we haven't seen more than 7 total runs scored in any game this series. The Giants have scored 7 or less runs in 5 straight, 8 of their last 9 and 12 of their last 14. The Phillies have been under this number in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. I'm expecting good performances from both starting pitchers tonight. The Giants' Bumgarner enters in top form, carrying an ERA of 1.50 over his last 3 starts. The same can be said about the Phillies' Blanton, who is carrying an ERA of 2.70 over his last 3 starts. With plenty of rest, both starters will have fresh arms. The Under is 8-1 in Bumgarner's last 9 home starts. The Under is also 4-1 in Blanton's last 5 starts as a road underdog and 4-0 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Lastly, the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these clubs in San Francisco. Bet the Under.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Rangers/Yankees UNDER 8.5

The Under is worth a shot this afternoon, considering the overwhelming numbers in favor of it. In fact, plays Under on road teams, where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TEXAS), after 3 or more consecutive wins, in October games, are 60-21 since 1997. This system is 14-5 the last 3 seasons and 2-0 already this season. It is also worth noting that we are only seeing an average of 7.8 total runs scored in these games. Bet the Under this afternoon.

Tom Freese

Buffalo Sabres at Atlanta Thrashers
Prediction: Atlanta Thrashers

Two teams going in different here as Buffalo is 1-4-1 on the season. The Sabres are 4-9 their last their last 13 games vs. a team with winning record. The Sabres are 1-5 their last their last 6 games as road underdogs. Buffalo is 1-4 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their last game. Atlanta is 3-2 on the year. Goalie Chris Mason has played all 5 games this year. The Thrashers are 8-3 in their last 11 games playing with 3 or more days of rest. Atlanta is 6-1 their last 7 games vs. Buffalo in Atlanta.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Rangers/Yankees UNDER 8 Runs

I expect a duel between ace C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson to come in Under the number this afternoon. Consider that Sabathia is 29-11 to the Under in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in his career. Also, Wilson is 8-1 to the Under as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. In addition, the Yankees have really been struggling at the plate. And, they will be without Mark Teixeira key bat today and the rest of the way if the Yankees can extend the series. With the Yankees fighting to stay alive, and with Texas looking to close this thing out, I'm expecting the nerves to get the best of a lot of these guys at the plate today. The Under is 7-3-1 in the Yankees' last 11 playoff home games, and this trend should continue this afternoon.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Pick: Texas Rangers +155

Simply put, C.J. Wilson has clearly outpitched C.C. Sabathia in the postseason. Wilson is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 2 postseason starts this year, and should be 2-0 had the bullpen not blown the lead in Game 1. Sabathia has allowed 9 runs in 10 innings in two starts this postseason, including 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 innings in his Game 1 start vs. Texas. Wilson sports a 2.72 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 15 road starts this year. But that shouldn't come as a surprise considering how well the Rangers have played on the road.

While Texas is hitting .307 in the ALCS, New York has batted.198, including .154 (6 for 39) with runners in scoring position. The Rangers are 5-0 on the road in the postseason, batting .295 with 10 home runs in those games. Josh Hamilton has three home runs in the last two games, and four of his five hits in 15 at-bats in this series have left the park. Bengie Molina, who hit three homers against New York while with the Angels in the 2005 AL division series, is 5 for 12 with five RBIs in the ALCS. Texas is 8-0 in their last 8 road games overall. I'd much rather back the hotter starter and the hotter team at the plate who have proven they can win on the road at this price tonight. Roll with the Rangers in Game 5 Wednesday.

Wunderdog

Anaheim Ducks vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets

The Anaheim Ducks are off to a slow start especially on the road where they have failed to get a point in three tries. They have, in fact, not even come close as they have been dreadful in the three games getting outscored 13-2. What is even more remarkable is the time they are spending on the opponent's side of the ice. The Ducks have allowed 145 shots on goal in the three games, approaching an average of 50 per contest while they have only attempted 72, or 24 a game. They are getting out shot by a 2-1 ratio and few games are going to be won like that. Columbus has won their two road games, but have surprisingly lost their two at home. They should turn the tide in tonight's game as their sweet spot has been at home as a favorite from -110 to -150 where they are 8-1 in their last nine. The Ducks road woes elongated to a 10-28 mark in their last 38 as a road dog. I like Columbus in this one.

Chuck O'Brien

Philadelphia at SAN FRANCISCO (-115)

I’ve hit five straight free plays in baseball, including the Giants-Phillies UNDER the total on Tuesday. For today’s complimentary selections, take San Francisco as it looks to push the Phillies to the brink of elimination with a Game 4 victory.

Here’s a number for you: Zero. That’s how many earned runs the Giants’ starters have yielded in their first three playoff home games (22 1/3 innings of work). Now it’s rookie Madison Bumgarner’s turn to throw up some zeroes, which he’s done a lot of lately. In his last seven starts, Bumgarner has given up just seven runs in 44 innings (1.43 ERA).

Tonight the southpaw faces a Phillies lineup that is scuffling. Aside from a three-run double by Jimmy Rollins in Game 2, Philadelphia has produced just eight runs in its last four games (including just two runs in two road contests). Additionally, over the past 11 games, Philadelphia is batting under .235 as a team, and it has scored three runs or fewer in exactly half of its last 16 games since Sept. 22. The fact they now have to face a lefty they’ve never seen before doesn’t inspire confidence that the Phillies’ offense is going to bust out today.

San Francisco has taken three of four at home from Philadelphia this year, is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings at AT&T Park and 25-14 in the last 29. And with Bumgarner toeing the slab, the Giants have won eight of 11 overall (they’re also 9-3 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starters).

3♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Bobby Maxwell

Texas (+160) at N.Y. YANKEES

For my comp play, you’ve got to ride the momentum in this one as the Rangers are swinging some red-hot bats and are looking to finish the Yankees in New York tonight. Texas sends Game 1 starter C.J. Wilson to the mound opposite his Game 1 foe C.C. Sabathia. But I don’t think it matters who pitches, the Texas bats will take over and win this game and series.

The Rangers have outscored the Yankees 30-11 and outhit them 43-26. Texas has hit seven homers in the series and got two from All-Star Josh Hamilton on Tuesday night.

Wilson was 16-8 on the season with a 3.27 ERA and he posted an even better 2.72 ERA when he pitched on the road. He made a road start in the ALDS in Tampa and shut them out on just two hits over 6.1 innings of a 6-0 win. Wilson has actually seen the Yankees a lot this season, making his fifth start against them today. He’s held the Yankees to three runs or less in three of the four outings, including Game 1 when he gave up three runs in seven innings, but his bullpen let him down in the 6-5 loss.

Sabathia allowed five runs in four innings in Game 1, and has given up four runs or more in three of his last four starts. While the Yankees have won both of his playoff starts, he has not been sharp, allowing nine runs in 10 innings of work.

Texas is a perfect 5-0 on the road in the playoffs, winning all three in Tampa in the ALDS and taking the first two here in New York. They can make it a clean sweep in New York tonight and I expect them to behind some big bats.

Grab the plus-money and go with the Rangers.

5♦ TEXAS

Joel Tyson

Texas at N.Y. YANKEES

Winner yesterday on the OVER in the Rangers-Yankees game, and I like the OVER again today at Yankee Stadium.

As for that free play on the over in the ALCS, the Rangers are just raking right now like there is no tomorrow. Texas has plated 30 runs in the 4 games played, and you can just see that these guys believe they are going to hit no matter who is on the hill for the Yankees.

The over is 3-0-1 through the 4 games contested thus far, and overall these teams are 6-1-1 over the total the last 8 meetings.

I know Wilson and Sabathia can be tough, but right now the offense is leading the way, and the over is the way to go again today in the Bronx.

4♦ OVER

Karl Garrett

Philadelphia at SAN FRANCISCO

Chiefs and Jets for FREE on Sunday.

Texas Rangers for FREE on Monday with Cliff Lee, and Texas-N.Y. Yankees OVER the total last night for FREE as well.

Add them up, that is 4 straight comp play winners and counting.

For tonight, look for the pitching to once again rule the roost in the Phillies-Giants series.

I know we are now dealing with each teams 4th starter, but both Joe Blanton and Madison Bumgarner have been throw the ball well down the stretch.

Blanton sports an ERA of 2.70 for his last 3 starts, while Bumgarner's ERA is just 1.50 for his last 3 starts.

Also keep in mind the Giants are on a 10-3-1 under clip their last 14 games played.

Have to stick with the theory that "good pitching beats good hitting".

Go under in Game 4 of the NLCS.

2♦ UNDER

Derek Mancini

Texas (+155) at NY YANKEES

11-2 Free Play roll, incl. the Giants blanking the Phillies 3-0 yesterday! Before we get into today's Freebie on the Rangers, let me warn you not to miss my 20 Dime NLCS Bankroll-Builder! All your questions about tonight's Game 4 match up are answered - don't miss it!

Everyone expects Sabathia to get it right this time, but I'm not convinced. No doubt we expect he'll pitch a hell of a lot better than he did in Game 1 tonight, but even so, that doesn't justify laying this much to play him. Rust may have played a factor in Sabathia's Game 1 struggles, but the continued problems with his command are something to watch for.

On the flip side, the Rangers starter C.J. Wilson has cruised through his two playoff starts, going 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA. We all know he pitched well enough to win Game 1, when it was the bullpen that cost him the "W." Another factor to consider is Wilson's success on the road, where his numbers actually got stronger, posting a 2.72 ERA away this season! Bettors love talking about his last regular season start against the Yankees (which was terrible), but fact remains, he pitched well in Game 1, and the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium he allowed 3 earned over 6 innings.

The last piece of the puzzle is the Yankees sputtering offense, which has done little against the Rangers this series. Texas offense has been more consistent, and the fact the Yankees are now without Texeira won't help the situation. The oddsmakers are going to make you pay for backing Sabathia and the Yanks in this elimination spot... Don't make the mistake of underestimating the Rangers again here! Texas (Wilson) over the NY Yankees (Sabathia) Wednesday.

2♦ TEXAS

SPORTS WAGERS

Texas +1.64 over N.Y. YANKEES

A rematch of game-1. CC Sabathia is hoping to rebound from a poor outing while Texas hopes CJ Wilson can match his sterling performance to open the series. Sabathia has thrown 237 innings this year, he threw 230 last season and he threw 253 innings in ’08. That’s a lot of miles and with a dumpster-fire bullpen behind him he probably figures ne needs to be near flawless. Other signs of fatigue: Sabathia’s game one first-pitch-strike percentage was under 50%. His career FPS mark is around 60%, and it was a tad lower this year at 58%. In the disastrous Ranger first, he threw just two first-pitch strikes and seven first-pitch balls. He threw 34 pitches, only 14 of them strikes (41%), and walked three, including a four-pitch walk and a five-pitch walk. In three of Sabathia’s last four starts he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings. Sabathia is 30-years old and he’s about 40 pounds overweight and while he’s certainly capable of throwing a gem, all signs point to that not likely happening. There are more reason to play against the Yanks. Through the first four games, Texas hitters have a combined .926 OPS. Five players (Cruz, Hamilton, Molina, Murphy and Treanor) are over 1.000. The Yanks were at .616 OPS, with Cano at 1.633, SS Derek Jeter at .871, and no other regular over .652. Four different Rangers have homered, but only 2B Robinson Cano, with three, has any swats for the Yankees. C.J. Wilson faced 27 Yankees in game-1 and threw first-pitch strikes to 21 of them – a 62% rate nicely up from his customary 55%-ish level. On the road this year, Wilson has thrown 89.2 frames and allowed 63 hits for a BAA of .201 and a road ERA of 2.91. He was an AL top-ten starter in many categories including wins, ERA and complete games. So, while you can never count the Yanks out, the fact is they look like a beaten team and you would have to be somewhat out of your mind to lay –1.75 with them today. Say goodbye to the New York Yankees and say goodbye to free-agent Derek Jeter in a Yankee uniform too. Play: Texas +1.64 (Risking 2 units).

BUFFALO +1.01 over Atlanta

The Sabres started the season with six games in nine nights and they really haven’t had a lot of time to straighten things out. They last played in Chicago on Sunday and they’ve had a few days off to prepare for this one. On Monday, Lindy Ruff put this team through hell in practice. This report from that practice comes from John Vogl of the Buffalo News:

To say the Sabres skated Monday would be like saying a little water goes over Niagara Falls. The players skated their blades dull in HSBC Arena, with end-to-end rushes giving way to a parade of suicide drills. By the time the players had repeatedly skated goal line-blue line-goal line-red line-goal line-blue line-goal line-far goal line, it was impossible to spot a cheek that wasn't red -- unless the players were facedown at center ice, which is where several collapsed when the sprints were completed.

The Minnesota Wild went through a similar drill on Monday and came out and smoked the Canucks yesterday. The Sabres have one win but they dominated play against Chicago on Sunday and you can be damn sure they’ll be stoked and ready to go here. Furthermore, the Thrashers are coming home from a four-game trip with the final three games being on the West Coast. Incidentally, they won its last two in Anaheim and San Jose and could definitely be caught flat-footed here. The Sabres are a very decent team with a great work ethic and an outstanding goaltender. They’ve lost four in a row and win or lose here, you’re going to get a rock-solid, 60-minute effort from them and chances are great they snap that losing streak. Simply put, this is a great spot for the visitors. Play: Buffalo +1.00 (Risking 2 units).