Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 23

Red Dog Sports

My free play is under 7 in Game One of the World Series between St. Louis and Boston. Both teams have solid hitters but Lester and Wainwright are good starting pitchers. Each team has shown they have great relievers and the weather looks to be on the cool side as it is being played in Boston's Fenway Park.

One unit on the under.

Ray Monohan

Detroit Red Wings -142

The Red Wings are back in the Eastern Conference this season and they are enjoying themselves leading the new Atlantic Division.

They have only lost one home game so far this season. The combination of Datysuk and Zetterberg are flying with each averaging more than a point per game so far.

After getting stoned by San Jose on Monday they should be looking to get their flow going even more in this one.

Ottawa just lost at home to Edmonton so their confidence should be low making them ripe for another meek performance.

5* FREE Play

Jim Feist

NHL (1) OTTAWA SENATORS VS (2) DETROIT RED WINGS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your free pick for Wednesday, October 23rd, 2013, comes in the NHL as Ottawa and the Red Wings meet in Detroit. Ottawa isn't doing much of anything well, off a 3-1 loss Saturday to Edmonton. This is not a strong offensive team and the under is 16-6-6 in the Senators last 28 vs. the Atlantic division. Detroit is well rested, as well, off a 5-2 loss at Phoenix, so they've had time to rest after the long trip. This defense is great, 8th in the NHL in goals allowed, with an offense ranked just 19th in goals scored. They are on a 18-8-9 run under the total and the under is 25-12-4 in the Red Wings last 41 home games. And when these teams meet the under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play Ottawa/Detroit under the total.

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Red Wings -144

Detroit is off a pair of tough losses and looks to rebound against an Ottawa team that has 3 days rest. The Senators have lost 8 of 12 with this much rest.They are 22-48 long term off a straight up favored loss, including 12-33 on the road in this role. In games on the road with a total of 5.5 Ottawa has lost 3 of 4. When placed in the dog role the Sens have no bite this year losing 4 of 5 times. Detroit has won 5 of 6 here in the series. Thye are 9-1 at home off a home games and 30-10 here when the total is 5.5. The Wings have won all 3 games as a favorite vs the East and should rebound here tonight.

Carlos Salazar

Boston Red Sox vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The 2013 World Series gets underway in Boston tonight. Carlos like the dog here with Wainwright on the mound against Lester. Look for St. Louis to grab the home field advantage and go up 1-0 in the series.

Doug Upstone

Detroit vs. Ottawa
Play: Under 5.5

On Wednesday, using my Betting Trends Tracker for this NHL matchup, we find when the closing line on the favorite (Detroit in this case) is between -145 to -155 and the total is positioned at 5.5, the UNDER is the play at 36-18 (66.6 percent) the past three seasons. I was No.1 in the NHL last season at the Sports Eye Monitor, sign up for Profitable Package today!

Jimmy Boyd

Senators/Red Wings Under 5½

The Ottawa Senators have a 16-6-6 record in favor of the under when they are facing Atlantic division teams. The Red Wings are also 5-0-1 to the under in their last six games against the Atlantic division. Neither of these teams has been scoring a lot of goals this season. The Senators are coming off a one goal performance last Saturday, and the Red Wings were unable to score in their last match up against San Jose on Monday.

The under is 10-3-2 in Detroit's last 15 home games against teams winning less than 40% of their games on the road. They are also 16-5-5 to the under in their last 26 games when facing an opponent that scored two goals or less in their previous game. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the game has gone under in five of the last seven meetings.

Dave Price

Cardinals/Red Sox Under 7

I expect Game 1 to come in under the number with aces Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright set to get the ball. Lester has a 2.93 ERA at home on the season and a 2.33 ERA in these playoffs. Wainwright has a 3.31 ERA on the road this season and a 1.57 ERA this postseason. Lester has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 of his last 13 starts, and Wainwright has given up 3 earned runs or less in eight straight starts. The under is 16-5-2 in Lester's last 23 starts versus NL clubs. Also, you want to take the under on all teams like St. Louis, when the total is 7.0 or less, that have gone three consecutive games without committing an error when they are starting a pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.000 or lower over his last three starts. That's because doing so has produced a 104-63 mark the last five seasons. The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +110 over BOSTON

We could take the Cardinals at +120 to win the series but prefer to play individual games. The reason being is that if we wager on the series, it could prevent us from making bets on individual games that could end up costing us 4 units instead of 2. For instance, if the Cardinals are down 2-0 in the series and we have a bet on them to win the series, we would not bet them in Game 3, because if they lose, we go down 3-0 in our series bet, a sure 2-unit loss, and iwe also lose our Game 3 bet. If the Cards do indeed win the series, the net payoff (winning prices minus the losing one’s) will be better than the series price, especially if they do it in fewer than seven games. That said, if you are looking to bet the series only, we would recommend St. Louis at a tag. For now, we’re betting Game 1 only.

Indeed the Red Sox defeated a wicked trio of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez, not to mention some pretty good pitchers for the Rays as well but the Cardinals are a different animal. Not only do they have an outstanding rotation, they have a great bullpen and the absolute best catcher in the game. No team was more efficient than Boston in operating its running game in 2013, stealing bases at a staggering 87% clip and stealing often, finishing fourth in the majors with 123 steals. Those trends have continued in the first rounds of the playoffs, with the Red Sox swiping 11 bases in 10 games. But thanks to Yadier Molina, no team shuts down base-runners quite like St. Louis. During the entire season, opponents managed only 39 steals against the Cardinals, easily the fewest in the majors and John Farrell will fear that fact. That’s not all Molina does. He calls a game to near perfection. He’s the X-Factor. He studies hitter’s and he knows what pitch to call for in every situation. We cannot stress enough how valuable Molina is behind the plate and he’s a very decent hitter too, especially in clutch situations. The Cardinals also get Allen Craig back for the series. Craig has been baseball’s best hitter with runners in scoring position the past two years and it’s perfect that the series opens in Boston, as Craig could and likely will DH. By the time the series shifts to St. Louis, Craig will be ready to take the field, if he isn’t already.

If it wasn't clear last year, it is now – Adam Wainwright is all the way back from surgery. Wainwright’s off-the- chart control and outstanding strikeout rate make him one of the toughest pitchers in the game. His groundball % over the last month is at a career high 52% and his fly-ball rate has continued to improve since 2008. In 23 playoff innings this year, Wainwright has struck out 20 and walked one batter. That’s right in line with his season ratio so it’s nothing unusual. Wainwright’s curveball, said to be the best in the game, is a huge weapon against some Red Sox batter’s that struggle against a good curve. Wainwright is the straight goods and when he pitches, the Cardinals not only have a great chance of winning, they usually win.

Jon Lester had a great second half and a he’s had three good starts in the post-season as well. However, unlike Wainwright, he walked too many batter’s during the regular season and he’s walked too many in the post-season too (7BB in 19 IP). Lester’s walks have led to a dangerously high strand rate that will hurt him if it normalizes. Another interesting note on Lester is that he dominated in day games but in night games, where the ball is easier picked up, he went just 9-7 with a 4.23 ERA and .262 BAA. In playoff baseball, every pitch matters, every base-runner matters and every failed or successful sacrifice or strikeout matters. In that regard, we like Wainwright over Lester, Molina over Jarrod Saltalamacchia to call and catch a better game and the Cardinals bullpen to finish the deal should it be tied late or should the Cards have the lead.

Pass NHL

LT Profits

St. Louis +113

Game 1 of the World Series is a battle of aces with Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals visiting Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox, and although this opener is in Boston, St. Louis seems to have the pitching edge. Wainwright may be coming off of his best season as he went 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA with a phenomenal 219 strikeouts vs. 35 walks, and he has been just as sharp this post-season despite an unlucky loss last out, as he is 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA with 20 strikeouts vs. one walk! Lester was 15-8 during the year, but he had an un-ace-like 3.75 ERA and he was not sharp despite beating the Tigers in Game 5 of the ALCS in his last start, allowing 10 baserunners and throwing 98 pitches over only 5.1 innings. The Cardinals are 27-10 in Wainwright’s last 37 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Charlie Sports

Ottawa Senators +140

The 3-3-1-1 Ottawa Senators of the NHL Eastern Conference Atlantic divsion will take on the 6-3-0-1 Detroit Red Wins also of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division in 2013 NHL action. Ottawa is 0-4 in the last 4 meetings between the teams. The under is 5-2 the last 7 meetings.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

BOSTON -122 over St Louis: Both teams have had solid pitching in this series, but the Sox get the advantage at the plate, especially at home, where they have averaged 5.2 rpg this year. The Cards offense has left them in the postseason as they have hit just .210 and have plated just 3.8 rpg so far. The Red Sox lineup has been up-and-down during the playoffs, batting .236 with 4.5 runs per game, but that is still better than the Cards have done. These teams are pretty much a mirror of each other as they both have strong pitching, a strong bullpen and good hitting up and down the lineup, but with game 1 at home and the fact that the Cards have not fared well vs lefties this year, I will go with the Sox to get the job done in game 1.

Hollywood Sports

Boston Bruins at Buffalo
Prediction: Under

Boston (5-2-0) has won three of their last four games after their 5-0 win at Tampa Bay on Saturday. The Bruins have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a victory. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games played with at least three days beaten contests. And in their last 5 games on the road, the Under is 4-0-1. Buffalo (1-8-1) comes off a 4-2 loss to Colorado on Saturday. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Sabres' last 9 games after scoring two goals or less in their last contest. And in their last 8 games on their home ice, the Under is 6-1-1. Take the Under in this one.

Craig Davis

Wednesday free play is Under in Game One of the World Series.

I think it's safe to say this is the popular pick of the night, but I don't see it any other way.

Vegas has posted this total around 7 because of the Boston bats and the fact St. Louis scored nine runs in Game 6 vs. the best pitcher in baseball (Clayton Kershaw). What they fail to realize is that both of these teams batted near .200 in their respective championship series' and the pitching will rule the roost tonight... and likely in this entire series.

Adam Wainwright (21-10, 2.94 ERA) is just flat out dominating his opponents, and his only loss in the post-season was against a Dodgers team that pitched just a little better than him. In seven innings, Wainwright allowed only five hits and two runs, but it would turn out to be more than enough for Los Angeles that night.

If he gives up only two runs tonight, that will be a perfect number for this total to stay UNDER the number.

He's countered by John Lester, and while St. Louis is putting out a right-handed hitting lineup tonight, the Cardinals were still never very good hitting against opposing lefties.

This should be a classic pitcher's duel tonight... and the total will finish under the number.

2♦ ST. LOUIS-BOSTON UNDER