LT Profits
New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs -8.5
The home teams have dominated the head-to-head series between the New Orleans Hornets and the San Antonio Spurs, going 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 meetings, and we look for the home standing Spurs to continue that dominance heee.
Now this spread may seem a tad high at first glance, but keep in mind that not only are the Spurs 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters here in San Antonio, but they have won those games vs. Chris Paul and Company by an impressive +13.2 points per game.
It seems that hosting one of the best point guards in the game in Paul usually beings out the best in Tony Parker and the recent results bear that out. Also keep in mind that while San Antonio is a year older, they did make some great off season acquisitions in Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and Theo Radcliff.
Now, while that does not necessarily make the Spurs younger, it does add quality depth that should make the whole team more effective with veterans playing limited minutes, as all of these players have been effective starters in their careers. Also, drafting DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh with pick number 37 may turn out to be outright thievery.
Now the Hornets were considered a disappointment last season, as they were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs by the Denver Nuggets. Their biggest move during the summer was trading Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor, and while that will help their rebounding, we are not quite sure Okafor can be a consistent scorer in this league.
Now do not get us wrong, we would not be surprised if the Hornets go a tad deeper in the playoffs this season. It is just that we do not like this opening matchup for them vs. an improved Spurs team at a venue where they have not had any success.
Pick: Spurs -8.5
Hollywood Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Look for the Cavaliers to bounce back tonight in Toronto after their 95-89 loss to Boston to open the season. The Celtics took care of business in the second quarter to take control of this game. The return of KG clearly jump-started Boston as they controlled the boards against Cleveland. But Toronto does not nearly offer the same kind of rebounding strength as do the Celtics. Toronto has nine new players on this club to work around a core of returning player in Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon. The big addition for the Raptors is Hedo Turkoglu from Orlando. But who is going to play defense on this team? Cleveland will be very motivated to avoid losing two games in a row -- and that means a disciplined focus to rebound and play defense. That effort will overwhelm a Toronto team that is searching for its identity this early in the season.
Play on: Cleveland
Killer Sports
3-STAR - Phoenix and LA Clippers Over
These two teams have gone over the total their last four matchups. In the last two they combined for 240 and 261 points. With a rest Phoenix team and a youthful on Clippers squad playing the equivalent of a back-to-back at home, expect a similar total tonight. Last night the Clippers fought the Lakers hard in a 99-92 defeat. In that game, the Clippers had some trouble with turning over the ball and the Lakers grabbed 13 steals. The League is 23-1 OU (11.0 ppg) since January 27, 2009 in the regular season as a home favorite after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.The Clippers just couldn’t get to the free throw line in that game, losing the free throw differential by 21 and making 11-of-16 attempts. The Clippers are 9-0 OU (19.4 ppg) since January 09, 2009 after a road loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.Finally Baron Davis had an off-game, going just 1-10 for two points. The Clippers are 7-0 OU (22.6 ppg) since January 30, 2009 after a loss in which Baron Davis scored fewer than 10 points. PREDICTION: Phoenix 118, LA CLIPPERS 113
Randall the Handle
NY YANKEES/Philadelphia over 7½
The two best teams in baseball are in the finals in what should be an entertaining series indeed. You also have the two best offensives going and despite the great numbers of both these pitchers in the post-season, Yankee Stadium is a launching pad and thus, I’ll gladly take my chances with the over. Even if the starters last into the sixth or seventh inning and allow a run or two each, once the pens take over it should be a free for all in terms of offense. The Phillies pen is a complete dumpster-fire and the Yanks pen isn’t much better. There are just so many hitters on both sides that can go deep and one has to believe they’ll be a whole bunch of balls leaving the yard in both parks. You must also consider that the DH will be in effect tonight and this is a National League total at a pitchers park as oppose to a AL total in a hitters park. Remember, C.C. Sabathia was a member of the Brewers so it’s not like the Phillies have never seen him. In fact, Raul Ibanez has faced Sabathia 40 times and is hitting .275 against him. Against C.C., Howard is hitting .429 in seven AB’s, Rollins is hitting .364 in 11 AB’s and Victorino is also hitting .364 in 11 AB’s. The Yanks have seen Cliff Lee a ton of times, as he was a member of the Indians for years so he is no stranger to these hitters. Bottom line is that this is an extremely low number in a hitter’s park with two bad pens and a slew of great hitters and great power. Play NY Yankees/Philadelphia over 7½ -1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Buffalo +1.04 over NEW JERSEY
The Sabres are playing too good to ignore as a pooch and it’s not a fluke either. They’re getting tremendous contributions from everywhere. Ryan Miller is at the top of his game and when he’s on he’s one of the best. The defense, led by veteran Craig Rivet and youngsters Chris Butler and Tyler Myers gives the Sabres one of the best groups of top-3 d-men in the league. Up front, the Sabres are balanced and they’re scoring plenty. Buffalo has played just eight games, the least in the league, thus, they’re rested, healthy, confident and hungry. Incidentally, they also have the best winning percentage in the league. The Devils were just 3-3 before they went on an impressive three-game winning streak that included wins at the Rangers and Penguins. However, they’ve won just once in four home games and that was a hard-fought 2-0 win over Carolina. The Devils scored an empty-netter in that one. Bottom line is they’re struggling miserably at home and will come into this contest minus two more key players in Paul Martin and Jay Pandolfo. The Devils are always tough but again, the Sabres are about as sweet a dog as any on the board and are most certainly worthy of a wager. Play: Buffalo +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.14 over Ottawa
The Panthers are about the least recognizable team on ice, as nobody cares, not even the locals, whether the Panthers win, lose or even play. However, this is a very decent hockey team that is very capable of winning on almost any night with a slew of good young talent (Horton, Frolik, Kulimov, Weiss, and Olesz to name a few). They’re also experienced and well represented on the blue-line. Yeah, they’re 2-6 but they started the year in Europe by splitting two games with Chicago and its last four games came against the Flyers twice, the Sabres and the Penguins. They beat the Flyers in Florida 4-2 and they lost 3-2 in OT in Pittsburgh. Now they’ll take a step down in class when facing the Sens. Ottawa is playing tough, make no mistake about that. However, politics has come into play, as the Sens sent down its prized rookie, Erik Karlsson, because if a junior plays 10 games his contract kicks in and he also becomes a free agent a year earlier. Yes, it’s a business but this move cannot be sitting well with the rest of the team, as they’ve played their hearts out thus far and this is a bit of a slap in the face. The Sens may respond well but we’ll have to wait and see. Furthermore, it appears as though Brian Elliot will make his first start of the year in net while Pascal Leclaire recovers from the flu. In the best of circumstances the Sens would be in tough here but this is anything but that. Give the Panthers a great chance to pick up its third win of the year. Play: Florida +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.80 over DALLAS
The Leafs finally got off the mattress with a very nice win in Anaheim. Toronto deserved the win, as they outplayed the Ducks in the final 50 minutes. Perhaps more important than that was the goaltending of rookie Jonas Gustavsson, who came up with some outstanding saves early in the game and the Leafs responded. That’s key, as the Leafs have been desperate for somebody to step it up in net for about five years. Despite losing two of its last three, Toronto has played extremely well over that stretch, as they deserved better against both Vancouver and the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Stars return home from a three-game trip to L.A, Anaheim and St. Louis. The Stars have performed a whole lot better on the road than at home where they have just one win in four tries. We get some good value on this guest, as Dallas is not in a favorable spot here, that being returning home from a trip and not playing well at home. The Leafs have strung together three strong games in a row and finally were able to savior the sweet taste of victory. Chances are good they’ll play another strong game tonight. Play: Toronto +1.80 (Risking 2 units).
JeffAlexander
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +11
I'll take the Bobcats catching double digit points tonight as they will be the fresher team. Boston is coming off a big win over Lebron James and company in Cleveland last night and I'm expecting a bit of a letdown from the C's here as it will be hard to get up for the Bobcats the same way. Charlotte has played Boston tough consistently over the past 2 seasons, going just 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark in Boston . The average spread in these 7 games saw Boston favored by 9.5 points, but the Celtics have only won by an average of 3 points in these contests. I'll take the Bobcats and the points here.
Tony Karpinski
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Boston Celtics
Play:Charlotte Bobcats +10
I am backing the Bobcats catching double digit points tonight as they will be the fresher team with plenty of time to prepare for this one. The last 3 meetings were decided by 8 points or less. Boston is coming off a big win over Lebron James and company in Cleveland last night and I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here against the much improved Bobcats team.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks
Prediction: Over
Los Angeles is 37-17-2 OVER after scoring 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 4-0 OVER off a win. The Kings are 4-1 OVER after allowing 2 or less goals in their last game and they are 8-3 OVER their last 11 Western Conference games. San Jose is 4-0 OVER their last 4 home games following a 7 game road trip and they are 5-2-2 OVER their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Sharks are 5-2 OVER vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Dave Price
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -2
I'll lay the small number with the Suns tonight as they have the fresher legs in this matchup. The Clippers may have hung with the Lakers last night, but don't be fooled. I cashed in with the Clippers with my free pick last night, playing on the notion that the Lakers would be distracted with the game being more about honoring last season's championship. The Suns will be much hungrier here than the Lakers were last night as they look to bounce back after missing out on the postseason. The Suns averaged 124.3 points in sweeping the four-game set from the Clippers last season and I expect their uptempo offense to give LA more problems tonight. The Suns are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Suns.
Today's Free Pick is Orlando -9
Maddux Sports
60% win rate on free picks since 2003
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Rocketman
Houston @ Golden State
Play: Houston +6.5
Golden State is 2-8 ATS last 3 years as a home favorite of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Houston is 36-13 SU overall vs Golden State since 1996 including 20-5 SU at Golden State since 1996. Houston has won 6 of 8 meetings with Golden State the past 3 years. Warriors are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Southwest. Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Underdog is 22-9 ATS in the last 31 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -$168
The Yankees CC Sabathia has been pitching lights out and I expect another quality start by New York's ace in this game. Philadelphia counters with Cliff Lee who has pitched very well for the Phillies and has been dominate in the playoffs but I look for that to change here. Coming over from the American League the National League hitters struggled against the former Cy Young winner. That will not be the case for the Yankees who have some very good numbers against Lee. Take a look at these career averages by the Yankees against Cliff Lee: Jeter (.407), Teixeira (.391), Posada (.286), Swisher (.333), Matsui (.294), A Rod (.333), Cabrera (.333). That's seven hitters with a career average of .286 or better. I look for the Bomber to roll. Play on New York as they take game one of the World Series.