Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday October, 3

David Chan

Minnesota vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

The Twins' (66-95) Scott Diamond (12-8, 3.54 ERA) is set to square off against the Jays' (72-89) Brandon Morrow (9-7, 3.09 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Diamond has been decent of late, and beat the Tigers 4-2 on Friday. The southpaw has given up three earned runs over his last 14 1/3's frames of work spanning two starts. The last time he faced the Jays he threw seven scoreless innings.

Morrow is also coming off a quality start vs. the Yanks on Thursday, going seven scoreless frames, scattering four hits in the 6-0 victory; he struck out and walked three. The right-hander has held his opponent scoreless in two of his last three starts, and has given up just five runs over his last 17 innings of work. Morrow is 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA in Canada.

Both teams will end the year with a disappointing overall record. But Toronto will look to close it in style, and complete the three game sweep of the soft-hitting Twins.

Kelly Johnson had a two-run home run in yesterday's 4-3 victory. The loss was Minnesota's fourth in a row.

Twins' slugger Joe Mauer is just 1 for 8 in the series.

Expect Morrow to outduel his counterpart, and for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; consider laying what I deem to be a very reasonable price in this particular matchup!

Ben Burns

Minnesota vs. Toronto
Pick: Under

These teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring game (4-3 final) yesterday. I won't be surprised if this one also proves fairly low-scoring.

Morrow was dominant last time out. Facing the Yankees, he allowed just four hits through seven shutout innings. It was his second straight home start in which he blanked the opposing team. He won those games by scores of 5-0 and 6-0.

Diamond is also in fine form to close out the season. Last time out, he allowed two runs (one earned) in 7 1/3 innings, a 4-2 final vs. Detroit. In his most recent road start, he allowed two runs in seven innings.

For the season, Diamond has a 3.54 ERA and 1.244 WHIP while Morrow has a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Diamond's lone career start against the Jays saw him toss seven shutout innings, a 4-3 final. Consider the Under 8.5.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Washington has already clinched and is getting ready for the postseason. They also go with struggling Edwin Jackson here, who has a 7.43 ERA his last three starts. Jackson has been solid overall this season, but seems to be fading in the final month, posting a 7.92 ERA and 1-2 record in five starts in September. He is 0-4 lifetime against the Phillies with a 5.32 ERA. Philadelphia goes with ace Cliff Lee, who is in a groove with a 1.17 ERA his last three starts. The Phillies are 31-8 in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and the Phillies are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Play the Phillies!

Ross King

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

Arizona is 18-7 the last 3 seasons at home versus Colorado.Arizona is 70-54 the last 3 seasons versus a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.Take Arizona on the runline to end their season with a 2 run win as your freeplay winner.

Big Al

Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Two talented starters - one a lefthander and one a righthander - will go to the mound for the final start of their respective team's season as second-year southpaw Scott Diamond gets his 27th start opposite Brandon Morrow of the Jays who is getting his 21st. Diamond was looking like a tired rookie in his five starts between August 23 and September 16 but he's looked rejuvenated in his last two starts, both against the Tigers. But Morrow's last two home starts came against the Yankees and Red Sox and he shut them both out over a combined 13 innings (seven against the Yanks and six against the Sox) and tonight he's back home for the finale and a chance for a Toronto three-game sweep of the Twins to end the season. Things could be bright for the Jays if they can get some other quality starters to put around Morrow as they have the nucleus of a very good offense which is still quite young for the most part. With the win on Tuesday the Jays are now 38-15 in the last 53 meetings. Take Toronto.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +111 over CHICAGO

The Astros have now won three in a row and five of six. They’ve defeated the Cubbies in back-to-back games by identical 3-0 scores. The Cubs have one win in their last 10 games. Combine that with Chicago having not scored in their last 18 innings and it reveals just how disinterested this host really is.

Edgar Gonzalez was called up in September and has made five starts. Throw out one poor start against the Phillies and his numbers would be off the charts. The Astros have won his other four starts, including wins at Cincinnati and Milwaukee. He has 17 K’s with just four walks in 21.2 innings to go along with a nice 46% groundball rate. He’s pitching for a job next season and another strong start here would surely open the door a little wider.

Travis Wood has made 25 starts this season and has to be feeling the relief of knowing it’s about to end. The Cubbies have lost 14 of Woods’ last 16 starts. Wood has a 34%/44% groundball/fly-ball profile, an average strikeout rate and spotty control. Wood is a below average pitcher throwing for a far below average club that is all but done. That’s not a good combination to be spotting anything with. The ‘Stros want it more and chances are they’ll get it.

WEST CAPPER

Braves / Pirates Under 7.5

Good opportunity here to have value on an under. Ben Sheets goes for the Braves in what will be the final start of his career. Big Ben has struggled in his last three starts, but he should be just fine here. McCutchen already has 20 bags so I don't look for him to be doing much today, and Pedro Alvarez has 30 bombs so I don't look for either guy to be trying extra hard today. Sheets should be extra motivated to finish his career strong, and the Braves offense is really struggling now. I was a former teammate of Sheets, and I know how competitive he is and how bad he'll want to put up a quality start today. The Braves offense has scored two runs in the last two games, and ever since they clinched the postseason they haven't been swinging the bats very well. Now they'll face Burnett today, who has a 2.50 ERA in his last six starts and has been throwing very well in September. He will be trying to avoid his 10th loss this year and keep his ERA around his career best 3.30 ERA in 2002. I wonder how many at-bats the big sluggers in the Braves lineup like Heyward, Freeman and Uggla will get today. They are all starting, but doubt they go the entire game. Great opportunity for a day under. This should be a quick game as Pittsburgh heads to the off-season and the Braves get back to Atlanta to host their wildcard game. If your one of the lucky ones and your book has 8 as the total, this goes to a 4****.

Phillies / Nationals Under 7.5

Cliff Lee has been throwing well, and I have a feeling the Phillies everyday starters just want to forget this season and hurry up and get to the off-season. Edwin Jackson really struggled last start, so he will be highly motivated to finish on a strong note and earn his #3 or #4 starter position for the postseason roster. Jackson also wants to get his 10th win, so I think you see him come out with quality stuff today. There should be a lot of early lazy swings off Lee and he pounds the strike zone, and this should be another quick day game. Nationals sat the majority of their starters yesterday, and each could get 1-2 at-bats before sitting again today. Keeping small because on most days this total would be 8.5, but because of yesterday's string of unders the books have moved this lower.

Astros / Cubs Under 8.5

Two teams that just want the season to end. Neither teams are taking quality at-bats, and I actually like both arms on the mound today. Travis Wood has quietly turned his season around and has been good in September, posting a 3.34 ERA in six starts. He has a career sub-2 ERA against the Astros, and in knowing Travis I know he will be fired up today to finish the season strong. I also like Edgar Gonzalez, the starter for Houston. He's been good since being called up to the big leagues, and was absolutely lights out in Triple-AAA in August. He's facing what is about a Triple-AAA lineup in the Cubs, so he should fare well today. This should be a quick game with a lot of early swings as guys try to get to their off-season plans. I could see Castro trying hard today to get to 80 RBI and 80 runs, but nobody else has any major motivating factors today on offense.

Mets / Marlins Under 8.5

Extra inning game yesterday and both teams just wanting the season to end. Keeping this small because the talent level on the mound in this one is a little behind the other games. Hefner and Koehler are essentially Triple-AAA fillers who won't have long big league careers. I'm sure Jose Reyes will try hard for his 40th stolen base if he gets on, but nobody wants this to be as long of a game as last night.

Wunderdog

New York Mets at Miami
Pick: New York Mets +100

It has been a disappointing season for these two teams. The Miami Marlins stacked their payroll with the opening of their new stadium, but really faltered and never found any team chemistry. If this under-achieving group couldn't get it done when they needed to, I can hardly imagine much effort here in their finale. Tom Koehler will make his first career start, but his record in the pen shows an unimpressive 5.40 ERA in limited duties. The Mets go with a disappointing rookie of their own in Jeremy Hefner with a 5.32 ERA of his own. But Hefner is off a confidence-boosting 7 inning, 0 run stint in his last outing. The Mets are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. a losing team, while the Marlins are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. a losing team. Play on the Mets.

MLB Predictions

Houston Astros +112

The Astros have won 5 of their last 6 games scoring 27 runs over that span (4.5 runs per game) and shutting out their opponent in 4 of the 6 games, including two 3-0 victories over the Cubs. The Cubs have dropped 9 of their last 10 games and have been shutout in 3 of those games, and have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5. Travis wood is 6-13 on the season with a 4.39 ERAand hasn't gotten through the 5th inning in his last 3 starts where he's allowed 10 earned runs against. Edgar Gonzalez will be pitching for Houston and he is 3-1 with a 4.15 ERA since joining Houston. Note that the Cubs are 3-13 in Wood's last 16 starts and 17-43 in their last 60 overall. The Astros have been winning ball games lately and I expect them to keep that up against the Cubs who probably just can't wait for the season to be finished with. Take Houtson as underdogs.

Oakland Athletics -107

After a 3-1 Oakland victory last night we have a winner takes all set up for this afternoon. Which ever team wins today's game will be AL West champions and the loser will have to play in a one game wild card. Oakland has won 5 straight and 7 of 8 to force this situation, which included the first two games of this series vs Texas. The Athletics have lost 6 of 8 heading into this afternoon's game. Texas send Ryan Dempster to the mound who is 7-3 with a 4.64 ERA since joining their team. A.J. Griffin looks to continue his solid season. He is 7-1 on the year with a low 2.71 ERA, and a perfect 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA over 7 home starts. Both starting pitchers have high ERA's over their last three starts, but A.J. looks more promising as he allowed just 1 earned run over 5.2 innings in his last start while Dempster continued to struggle giving up 4 earned runs over 5.2 innings in his last start. The Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 oerall, 2-7 in their last 9 as a road underdog, and 6-14 in their last 20 road games vs a team with a winning home record. The A's are 13-3 in their last 16 vs divisional opponents, 38-15 in their last 53 home games, and 10-2 in Griffin's last 12 starts. Oakland is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs Texas. I'll stick with the team that is on a roll and playing at home this afternoon in what will be an exciting game that will get us ready for the postseason.

Hollywood Sports

Rockies at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under

Arizona (81-80) won Game Two of this series by a 5-3 score last night -- and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total following a game where they scored at least five runs. The Under is also 13-6-2 in their last 21 home games. They send out Kennedy for this final game of the regular season who looks to build on his 15-11 record along with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this year. The right-hander has been outstanding down the stretch of the season as he owns a 3-0 record along with a 2.67 ERA and a 23:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last 27 innings of work. Colorado (63-98) counters with Francis who is 5-7 with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP this year. The left-hander failed to complete 5 innings of work in his last start at Los Angeles against the Dodgers so look for him to be extra-focused for this game as it offers him his last opportunity to leave a good impression on the organization before entering the offseason. Francis has been a bit better away from Coors Field given his 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road. The Rockies have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Francis pitching as an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. Colorado has also seen the Under go 20-6-1 in their last 27 games as a big underdog in the +151 to +200 range. And the Under is 16-5-1 in the Rockies last' 22 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Take the Under in this one.

Matt Fargo

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

This is obviously a big game for Baltimore as it needs to close the regular season with a win while hoping the Yankees lose to Boston tonight which would set up a one-game play-in contest tomorrow to see who would take the American League East title. The Orioles won last night 1-0 over the Rays to improve their record to an incredible 29-9 in one run games this season. There is a lot at stake tonight for Baltimore with a divisional title on the line however it is already in the playoffs so desperation mode and pulling out all the stops will not come into play. Chris Tillman has been outstanding since getting back into the rotation as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and this is exactly why he was held to pitch in this game although it would make more sense for him to pitch in an elimination game either Thursday or Friday if it came to that. He has been fortunate that Baltimore has given him a ton of run support but that will dry up tonight. Tampa Bay lost its chance to get back into the postseason on Monday when Oakland won which eliminated the Rays from postseason consideration. They put up a fight last night behind James Shields even though the offense was completely shut down. After being eliminated from playoff possibilities, the Rays did not sit players as according to manager Joe Maddon, "it would not be the right thing to do". And he is right as it would give an unfair advantage to Baltimore and hurt the integrity of the divisional chase. Tampa Bay has played some of its best baseball this year down the stretch as it is 11-2 over its last 13 games and it will be out to play spoiler and close the season with a win. Jeremy Hellickson takes the hill and he is having a great season with a 3.20 ERA through 30 starts. He has not been getting the wins that he should be as run support has been a problem and he has now gone six straight starts of allowing three runs or less. He has faced the Orioles a ton in his short career and has had a lot of success in doing so as in 11 games against them, Hellickson is 5-3 with a 2.49 ERA.

Joe Gavazzi

Baltimore -108

The Rays gave it all they had down the stretch finishing on an 11-2 kick. Hellickson has been consistent all season with a 3.20 ERA despite a 9-11 record. In 5 outings vs. Baltimore this season, he has posted a superb 2.83 ERA. It won't be enough against Baltimore tonight, who may well be this year's "team of destiny". They enter tonight on runs of 41-20, 27-10, and 12-4. They play with great motivation tonight as they trail NYY by 1 game for the division lead. Baltimore win combined with an NYY loss means the Orioles host the Yankees Thursday in a 1 game playoff for the division crown. Their option is to host the Wild Card on Friday against the Texas/Oakland loser. As surprising as the Baltimore season has been, it has been mirrored by Tillman who is 9-2 with a 2.78 ERA. Let's try the Birds one last time.

Jeff Alexander

Cleveland Indians -114

Fading the White Sox who have dropped 11 of 14 down the stretch. They are 1-6 in their last 7 road games, 1-6 in Floyd's last 7 starts as an underdog and 8-21 in his last 29 starts as a road underdog. They want the season over with as soon as possible after blowing an opportunity to win the AL Central. This game means more to the Indians with Sandy Alomar Jr. trying to make a case for being hired as the manager and David Huff making his case for returning to the starting rotation next year. Take the Tribe.

Jack Jones

Cleveland Indians -114

The Cleveland Indians want to send their home fans out on a positive note with a win on the final day of the regular season Wednesday. I look for them to do just that tonight against a Chicago White Sox team that was eliminated from the AL Central race on Monday.

There's no question the White Sox are deflated right now, and that showed in their 3-4 extra innings loss to the Indians last night. Chicago was in great position to win the Central all year before losing 11 of its last 14 games to close out the season.

David Huff has pitched well this season for Cleveland, going 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three starts and two relief appearances. I like his chances of taking down Chicago's Gavin Floyd, who is 11-11 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 28 starts this year.

The White Sox are 8-21 in Floyd's last 29 starts as a road underdog. Chicago is 1-6 in its last 7 road games. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The Indians are 5-2 in Huff's last 7 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Indians Wednesday.