Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 9

Jim Feist

NHL MONTREAL CANADIENS VS CALGARY FLAMES.

Play Montreal/Calgary Over the total

Your free pick for Wednesday, October 9th, 2013, comes in the NHL as Montreal heads to Calgary. Montreal has plenty of offensive punch, 9th in the NHL in goals scored. But the defense is a major concern, with aging veterans on the blue line flanked by some untested kids. And Alexei Emelin, Montreal's most physical blueliner, is out until at least December as he recovers from knee surgery. The over is 14-3-2 in the Canadiens last 19 road games. They take on a Calgary squad that has plenty of offensive punch with 4 goals per game (4th in the NHL), but 28th in goals allowed. This is nothing new: The Flames couldn't keep the puck out of their own net last season, finishing 28th in goals allowed last year. The over is 9-4-2 in the Flames last 15 home games. Play Montreal/Calgary Over the total.

The below plays were taken from the same website

============================================

Razor Sharp Sports

CHICAGO/ST LOUIS UNDER the total of 5½ goals

===============================================

Totals4U

Ottawa Senators/Los Angeles Kings under 5 goals

===============================================

#1 Sports

Los Angeles Kings - 145

===============================================

Easy Money Sports

CHICAGO +115

MLBPredictions - Kevin

2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals - PIRATES TO WIN (+147)

Listed Pitchers: Cole vs Wainwright
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.94 units)

This one will go to a game 5 as they have split games in Pittsburgh and St Louis so far. The Cardinals won the first game 9-1 before Pittsburgh evened things out with a 7-1 victory. The teams headed to Pittsburgh where the Pirates went up 2-1 with a 5-3 victory in game 3, and then the Cardinals sent things back to St Louis with a 2-1 victory in game 4. Game 5 will feature rookie Gerrit Cole for the Pirates and veteran Adam Wainwright for the Cards. Cole faced St Louis in Game 2 going 6 innings allowing just 2 hits and 1 earned run. He had 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. During the regular season he made 7 road starts and he went 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA, .217 OBA and 0.95 WHIP. He also finished the season off very solid going 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .212 OBA and 1.06 WHIP over his last 5 starts. Wainwright was 19-9 on the season with a 2.94 ERA and 9-6 at home with a 2.53 ERA. In Game 1 he went 7 innings allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run with 9 strikeouts and 0 walks. Before the postseason he faced the Pirates three times allowing 4 and 3 earned runs in the first two starts, and then pitching 7 innings of shutout ball in his final regular season start vs them. In 22 career games (18 starts) vs the Pirates Wainwright owns a high 4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .282 OBA. That isn't to say that he won't pitch great here in this 'do or die' game, but I do think that this line has value for the underdog. The Pirates have won Cole's last 6 starts, including 4 straight of his starts as an underdog. Overall the Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 games as an underdog, and 9-2 in their last 11 road games. If Cole can pitch like he did in Game 2 he will give his team a great shot at winning this game and provide Pittsburgh with some more postseason action. Take the Pirates here at a good price in what should be a great game.

Jimmy Boyd

Montreal Canadiens -114

The Canadiens greatest strength is their depth. They have a wealth of key players that can score goals, making them a very difficult team to defend against. Lars Eller is clearly the biggest play maker on this team. He has three goals and two assists already this year, and figures to be a major factor tonight against Calgary. The Canadiens are a team that will continue to build and improve as the season progresses. They have several new players that are still working their way into the different schemes run by Montreal.

The Flames have had a lot of issues to start the season. They lost in overtime against Vancouver on Sunday, and went 0-3 on the power play for the second straight game. They are 1-11 on the man advantage and have allowed 12 goals. Those are not numbers that inspire a lot of confidence in this team. Even head coach Bob Hartley has acknowledged the fact that there are a log of "kinks to work out" of their system. Much like the Canadiens, the Flames should improve with time, but they are too far behind at this point in the season which makes Montreal a strong value play today.

SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +133 over LOS ANGELES

OT included. The Senators have yet to play at home and they have yet to lose in regulation, picking up three out of a possible four points. Ottawa blew a two-goal, third period lead to the Maple Leafs on Saturday night, losing it in OT, but not finishing is a rare occurrence for this group. The Sens are a solid, balanced team with depth, goaltending, scoring and strong defense. They’ll roll out four high caliber lines that just keep on coming with a relentless system that forces the opposition into making bad decisions. This is a good hockey team that almost always has a chance to win. With four games left on the Senators six-game trip to begin the year, they figure to keep pushing hard.

Marc Andre Fleury was considered at one time to be one of the best goaltenders in the world. He has a Stanley Cup, two silver medals and one gold medal at the Olympics and he is also a former all-star. The he lost it. There was a former pitcher for the Cardinals named Rick Ankiel, who in his first full year at the age of 20 in 2000 was second in the NL (behind Randy Johnson) with 194 strikeouts and was whiffing an average of 9.9 batters per nine innings. He received The Sporting News Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award. In the playoffs of that year, Ankiel started Game 1 of the NLDS, walked four batters and threw 5 wild pitches in three innings before being removed. In his next start, in Game 2 of the NLCS, Ankiel was removed in the first inning after throwing 20 pitches, two of which sailed over the head of the catcher and three others that were wild pitches. Ankiel was sent to the minors where he walked 25 batters in 17 innings and never pitched in the majors again. He lost it too. We mention this because we see Jonathan Quick of the Kings heading down a similar road. Quick was inconsistent all of last year and in his last two games, he’s allowed seven goals on 55 shots, not to mention that well-documented gaffe against the Rangers the other night and at least three other soft goals. L.A. is now 1-2 with losses to the Jets and Rangers. Its only victory came in OT against Minnesota. L.A. is not a team you want to lay juice with right now and Quick is not a goaltender you want be backing until he shows us something different.

Pass MLB

LT Profits

Pittsburgh vs St. Louis
Pick : Under 6.5

Runs should be hard to come by in a tension-filled deciding Game 5 of the NLDS between two excellent pitchers when Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals host Gerrit Cole and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The veteran Wainwright is perhaps coming off of his best season as he finished 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA and an out-of this-worldly ratio of 219 strikeouts vs. 35 walks! He has shut down the Pirates the last three times he had faced them including in Game 1 when he allowed one run on three hits in seven innings. The Pirates bypassed Game 1 starter A.J. Burnett for the rookie Cole, who allowed three earned runs or less in 18 of his 19 regular season starts and then held the Cardinals to one run and two hits in six innings in Game 2. The ‘under’ is also 8-2 in Cole’s last 10 starts on normal four days rest.

Brass Balls Picks

PIRATES (COLE-WAINWRIGHT) + 145

Their recent free pick record: 28 wins and 11 losses

Hollywood Sports

Montreal at Calgary
Prediction: Over

Montreal (1-1-0) gets back on the ice since their 4-1 win against Phoenix on Saturday -- and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total coming off a win. Additionally, the Canadiens have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last game. Now Montreal goes on the road for the first time this season -- and the Over is 14-3-2 in their last 19 games on the road. Calgary (1-0-2) comes off a 5-4 loss in overtime to Vancouver on Sunday. The Over is 9-4-2 in their last 15 games at home. Additionally, the Flames have played 8 straight games Over the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. Lastly, the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Calgary. Take the Over in this one.

Bruce Marshall

Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames
Pick: Montreal Canadiens

Montreal's past shortcomings at the Saddledome should be overlooked, especially since it has been two seasons since the Habs played in Calgary. Because at the moment, it's the Flames looking more than a bit shaky, especially on the defensive end after shipping 12 goals in their first 3 games. Remember, the Canadiens went 15-7-2 last season on the road to finish with 32 points, tied for fourth-most in the NHL. meanwhile, the Flames are off a 5-4 loss to Vancouver in OT as GK Joey MacDonald stopped just 23 shots. The Flames also went went 0 for 3 on the power play for the second straight game and are just 1 for 11 on the man advantage. Montreal also likely welcomes back left wing Max Pacioretty after sitting out against the Flyers with an arm injury.

Tony Karpinski

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

Cole has been 5-0 recently and pitching great as a rookie. Pittsburgh will use their speed, youth and pitching to steal this one and its a great price as +150. This one will go to a game 5 as they have split games in Pittsburgh and St Louis so far. Wednesday nights Game 5 will feature rookie Gerrit Cole for the Pirates and veteran Adam Wainwright for the Cards. Cole faced St Louis in Game 2 going 6 innings allowing just 2 hits and 1 earned run. He had 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. During the regular season he made 7 road starts and he went 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA, .217 OBA and 0.95 WHIP and this is why he is starting over the veteran AJ Burnett. Also, the Pirates are coming off a game where they were 1-hit.

In 22 career games (18 starts) vs the Pirates Wainwright owns a high 4.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .282 OBA. That isn't to say that he won't pitch great here in this 'do or die' game, but I do think that this line has value for the underdog. The Pirates have won Cole's last 6 starts, including 4 straight of his starts as an underdog. Overall the Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 games as an underdog, and 9-2 in their last 11 road games. If Cole can pitch like he did in Game 2 he will give his team a great shot at winning this game and advancing.

Dave Cokin

Chicago vs St. Louis
Pick : St. Louis

There’s no question about the marquee tilt on tonight’s NHL slate. Two of the league’s best get together in St. Louis as the Blues entertain the defending champion Blackhawks. With the Game Five between the Pirates and Cardinals going at the same time, this is one night where St. Louis is clearly the nation’s sports capitol.

There is no such thing as an easy take against this Chicago team. That wasn’t a lucky run that took them all the way last season. But there are a few teams that have the talent to supplant them as NHL kingpins, and I have to think the Blues are among that elite group.

There’s also the possibility of the dreaded championship hangover impacting the Blackhawks. They got a little unlucky in a shootout loss to Tampa Bay, but might have also been a bit fortunate to get through opening night with a win against the Caps. Bottom line is that every opponent is going to be way up to play the champs, so this could be a pretty tough grind for Chicago from that standpoint.

As for tonight, the Blues are perfectly placed. They haven’t had to leave home, they’ve had plenty of prep time for this game, and they don’t have any injuries. Neither do the Blackhawks, but this is their first road game and the atmosphere should be pretty hostile.

From an actual matchup standpoint, the Blues could have a real shot to do some damage on the power play. Chicago has struggled badly with the kill thus far, and the Blues have been producing with the extra man. I would think that trying to get some whistles on home ice will be part of the Blues game plan tonight.

I generally will look for early season spots to play against defending champions in any sport. This one isn’t ideal from a numbers standpoint, as the idea is get plus money fading the champs. But the scheduling dynamics would seem to favor the Blues, and off the way they’ve looked so far, I like their chances of coming away with the win tonight.

Craig Davis

Your free play for Wednesday is the Over in the Pirates-Cardinals game.

I'll be completely honest with you here... I think this total is right around where I think the game is going to finish.

And I'll be honest with you again... there are so many people betting the under in this game that I felt like the only logical play was to release the over.

There's honestly not a lot of proof one way or the other that this game is going over or under the total, but I do know that following the crowd usually gets me in trouble.

If 20 people were betting one side of a game, unless I felt really strongly about it, I'd take the other side 80% of the time.

But I actually like the over a little bit tonight because both of these pitchers have thrown in this series, and despite the fact that both pitched well I feel like the hitters have the advantage the second time through.

It's gonna finish right around the total, but I'm banking on it finishing just barely over the number.

2♦ PITTSBURGH-ST. LOUIS OVER