Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday September, 12

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore and Tampa Bay continue their crucial series on Wednesday night. Miguel Gonzalez is 6-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 11 starts for Baltimore. He'll be glad to pitch at home after making starts in New York, Toronto, and Texas. The righty will be seeing the Rays for the third time this season. In his last start against them on August 5th, Gonzalez allowed just two hits in seven innings in Tampa Bay. The Rays’ offense has struggled a bit as of late and the team has three of their last five games. Baltimore's bullpen continues to be stellar as they are 24-10 with an ERA right around 3.20 converting almost 80% of their saves.
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Alex Cobb is 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 19 starts for the Rays. He has allowed 34 runs and 63 hits in nine road starts this season. He has not faced this Baltimore team who is 40-32 at home. The Orioles are hitting over .260 in their last eight games and they’ve won six of their last nine games. Baltimore has won 7 of the 13 meetings with the Rays this season, so we’ll take them on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

Chris ElliottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. Milwaukee
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The Braves look to avoid the sweep at Milwaukee on Wednesday as lefty Paul Maholm takes to the hill for Atlanta. He has a record of 12-9 with a 3.67 ERA. He has 7 QS in his last 10 starts and 16 QS in 27 starts this season. He has pitched once at Milwaukee this year in June for the Cubs, giving up 4 earned runs in 4 innings pitched.
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Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo will counter with a record of 14-8 and 3.76 ERA. He has 7 QS in his last 10 starts with an amazing 23 QS in 29 starts this season. He is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.91 ERA vs. Atlanta.
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The Braves have cashed the "Under" in 13 of their last 20 games including 8 of their last 9. They have had stellar pitching for the most part and haven't scored many runs in the process with 68 runs in their past 20 games, good for an average of 3.4 a game.
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The Brewers had cashed 8 straight "Overs" until the Braves came to town as both games in this matchup have gone "Under". Miller Park is the most homer friendly ballpark as per ESPN MLB Ballpark Factors however the combination of the Braves great pitching and poor hitting has trumped the hitter friendly park. Take the "Under" to win in this game.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM

Oakland vs. LA Angels
Pick: Oakland
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The Athletics will come into LA tonight, 4.5 games up on the Angels, and just three games back of Texas in the AL West. They have taken the first two games of this series in LA, and they have won five straight games overall. They look to have a favorable matchup on the mound tonight, as they go for their sixth consecutive victory.
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A.J. Griffin will take the mound for the Athletics tonight, and he is still perfect so far this season. Griffin (5-0, 2.21 ERA) allowed just a single run on six hits over five innings in a 6-1 win over the Mariners his last time out. Prior to that he went seven innings allowing one run on just three hits in a 7-1 win over Boston.
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The Angels will be getting their first look at Griffin tonight, and that might just favor the pitcher.
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The Angels hand the ball to Ervin Santana, who has put together back to back wins in his last two starts. Santana (8-11, 5.21 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits over six innings in a 3-2 win over the Tigers his last time out. He has been much better in recent starts, however there is plenty of reason to be sceptical about Santana, who has been really roughed up for most of the season.
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He has terrible numbers at home in Anaheim, going 3-6 with a 4.58 ERA in a dozen starts this season.
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I am going to suggest a second look at a play on Oakland tonight.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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Kyle Lohse isn't getting much credit for a second straight outstanding season. Lohse has pitched as well as the Cards could hope since the start of the 2011 season, a span of 59 starts. Lohse has posted a 14-2 record in 2012 with a 2.81 ERA & 1.10 WHIP. The righty has allowed just 12 earned runs and 44 base runners in his last 43 2/3 IP, spanning seven starts. All that, yet he's laying a relatively short price at PETCO. I realize the Friars have played much better baseball over the past month, but Lohse is more than likely to stifle the run. Clayton Richard starts for the Padres and he's pitched well, also. But the Redbirds have dominated lefties at home and on the road, posting a 27-15 record, while averaging nearly 6 rpg. Meanwhile, the Padres are averaging just 2.73 rpg at home against righthanders. Look for Lohse to end the Cardinal mini-slump with a road win on Wednesday.

Scott RickenbachFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals vs. Padres
Play: Under 7½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St Louis Cardinals take on the Padres in San Diego in the third and final game of this three game series. St Louis is scoring only 3.9 runs per game their past seven games overall. San Diego is scoring only 3.7 runs per game at home this year and 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters this season. San Diego is allowing only 3.7 runs per game at home this season. Kyle Lohse has been great this year for St Louis going 14-2 with a 2.81 ERA overall this year and 7-1 with a 3.36 ERA on the road this season. Clayton Richard has pitched decent himself, not overpowering numbers but he is 12-12 with a 3.78 ERA overall this year and 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA at home this season. Richard is 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA in all his starts vs St Louis in his career. The Under has cashed 13 out of the last 17 games when Lohse starts overall. The Under is 6-1-1 last 8 games when Richard starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Under is 6-2 last 8 meetings overall in this series. This will be a pitcher's duel here tonight and we think it will be a low scoring contest.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers fit a nice system here tonight that has won 11 of the last 15 times and plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win by 2 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, if they scored 5 or more runs and left 5 or more men on base, va an opponent off a home loss by 2 or more runs, while scoring 4 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base and had no errors. The Tigers have taken 11 of 16 from Chicago this season and have Sherzer on the mound tonight. Sherzer has a superb 1.17 era in his last 3 starts and a 2.58 era vs Chicago. G. Floyd will make the start for Chicago and he has terrible current form with a 6.10 era in his last 3 starts. Look for Detroit to take another in this crucial American League Central matchup.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and face ace Cliff Lee. Lee is back on his game with a 2-0 record and a 1.33 ERA his last three starts. Lee has surrendered eight runs in the last 34 1/3 innings of work, while striking out 38 and walking two over that span. The Marlins are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record and 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile the Phillies are 8-3 in Lees last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and the Marlins are 5-14 in the last 19 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Phillies.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Oakland Athletics
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Oakland just keeps on rolling, and while Ervin Santana has been lights out lately for the Halos, this game looks like a tossup to me. That means value on the visitors, and a free play on the A's.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland / Texas Under 10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeanmar Gomez takes the mound for the Indians in the middle game against the Texas Rangers. Gomez pitched pretty well in his last start against the Rangers, giving up three runs in 5.2 innings of work. The Indians offense has been terrible for quite a while, batting just .230 in the second half, and batting an even worse .217 with a .603 OPS over the last four weeks. If this game is going to go over the total with Ryan Dempster on the mound, it'll have to be almost all Texas's doing. With Gomez's ground ball stuff and the ability to induce some double play balls, the hope is that he can minimize the damage.
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Ryan Dempster has settled in for the Rangers and looks comfortable. Dempster has given up just six runs in his last 24 innings, striking out 28 batters. Dempster held the Indians to just two hits over six innings on August 31 in Cleveland and more of the same should be expected in this start. The Indians 4-5-6 hitters on Tuesday night were Russ Canzler, Matt LaPorta and Brent Lillibridge. With the Indians well out of the hunt and looking at a possible fire sale this winter, expect guys like that to get more and more of the at bats.

Dr. Ed MeyerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Marlins +155
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The Phillies have won six straight, but they are in a soft spot here and Josh Johnson is a pitcher that can take advantage of the situation. Philadelphia is 0-8 as a day favorite vs a divisional opponent that is behind them in the standings, as long as they did not lose their last eight games.
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Note that the Phillies have been an average of minus-169 on the moneyline, but they have lost by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Brutal.
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Also, the Phillies are a money-burning 9-11 as a home 140+ favorite and it is the last game of the series and 15-18 at home when they are off a night win in which they never trailed.
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Josh Johnson lost 1-0 vs the Phillies on August 14th. The Marlins are 9-2 since May with Johnson when they lost the last time he faced this opponent, reeling off seven straight quality starts in this spot.
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In his last outing, Johnson went seven innings and won 6-2 while striking out seven and allowing four hits. This is a positive indicator, as the Fish are 10-1 as a DOG with Johnson when he had more strike outs than hits allowed at home in his last start. In their only loss, Johnson had a quality start but the Bullpen allowed four earned runs in one-and a third innings.
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That's 10-1 as a DOG. In his last three, he outdueled Halladay in Philadelphia 2-0, dominated the Braves with Hudson in Atlanta 5-1 and stymied the Nats in Washington with Gio Gonzalez 5-2. Very Impressive.
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Cliff Lee has some very impressive records for Philadelphia, but they are stale. The recent results reveal that Philadelphia is 0-7 as a home favorite with Lee since he came back over from the Rangers when he is off a start in which he did not walk a batter. The Phillies averaged minus 181 on the moneyline in these seven games, but they lost every time.
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He also has not been sharp when the team is on a winning streak. Philadelphia is 0-5 as a 140-plus home favorite with Lee since he came over from Texas when they are on a three-plus game winning streak and he went less than eight innings in his last start.
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Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Marlins are 4-0 recently as a road 140-plus underdog when they are off a loss in which their opponent stranded eighteen-plus runners.
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Over the past six seasons, Josh Johnson has been a 140-plus dog to a team that is not over 500 only once. In that game 4/29/2009, he outdueled Johan Santana as a 160 dog in New York.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We think the Marlins are close to a coin toss here, so we'll grab the nice price.
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MTi's FORECAST: Miami 3 PHILADELPHIA 2

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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ARIZONA -1½ +162 over Los Angeles
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Both the price and the pitching matchup have caught our attention here. The Dodgers sent out Clayton Kershaw in the first game of this two-game set last night and lost 1-0. The Dodgers couldn’t be happier to wrap things up here. If the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs, they can attribute much of it to the D-Backs. L.A. has been outscored 74-47 and lost 11 of 17 games against Arizona this season.
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Aaron Harang has two disastrous starts in three tries vs. the Snakes this year. Couple that with a 5.19 xERA over his last five starts and he's one that could get lit up at this hitter’s yard. He allows hard contact, as evidenced by his 37%/23%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Harang is also a starter who weakens as the game goes along. He looks like a rotation anchor the first time through lineups and then he falls apart after that with some of the worst numbers in the majors the second and third time through opposing lineups.
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Trevor Cahill’s surface stats (3.99 ERA) say “same guy”. He’s not. In August, Cahill had the highest groundball rate (63%) of any starter with at least three starts in the majors. A 64% strand rate has masked just how good he’s been. Cahill’s strikeout rate is increasing, giving him and the Diamondbacks a solid chance to run away with this one.
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No Late Pick Today

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals +103
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Nats are showing value in the underdog role, even with Lannan on the hill. He has won both of his spot-starts this season and enters in top form having gone 3-1 with a 1.63 ERA and two complete games over his last five starts with Syracuse. The Nationals are 4-1 in Lannan's last 5 starts vs. the Mets, 20-6 in the last 26 meetings overall and 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in New York. Take Washington.

Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants -127
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The Rockies are just 1-6 in their 7 games, and I believe they'll come up short tonight against a San Francisco club that has won 20 of its last 27 on the road. Lincecum has quietly been pitching very well. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. He has given up 2 runs or fewer in each of his last 4 road starts with the Giants winning each of those games. The Giants are 26-10 in the last 36 meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Colorado. Bet San Francisco on the money line.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers-1½ -124
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The Indians have lost 4 in a row with 3 of those defeats coming by 2 runs or more. The Tribe has also dropped 5 straight on the road against the Rangers with each of those losses coming by at least 2 runs.
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Dempster has been dealing. He's won his last 4 starts while holding each of those opponents to 2 runs or fewer. The Rangers won 3 of those by 2 runs or more. Dempster is also 2-0 (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 0.98 in 3 career starts against Cleveland. Both wins came by at least 2 runs.
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The Indians are 12-39 in their last 51 overall, 15-40 in their last 55 road games and 3-15 in their last 18 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater. They are also 6-22 in their last 28 meetings with Texas. Bet the Rangers on the run line.