DAVID BANKS
Tampa Bay Rays -115
An unexpectedly big series with huge playoff ramifications continues on Wednesday night when the Tampa Bay Rays (77-63) visit the Baltimore Orioles (78-62) at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET in a game being carried on ESPN2. The Orioles were projected to finish in last place in the American League East before the season began, but they entered this series opener on Tuesday in second place just one game behind the New York Yankees, and Baltimore also held the final wild card spot in the American League by one game over these Rays, so it is conceivable that these clubs could be tied by the time this first pitch is thrown.
The Orioles actually tied the Yankees for first place twice while the teams split a four-game series this past weekend, but the Bronx Bombers reclaimed sole possession of first with an emphatic 13-3 win in the series finale on Sunday. Baltimore now looks to start a winning streak with the promising rookie Miguel Gonzalez on the bump. Gonzalez made his first Major League start on July 6th, and he is 6-4 with a nice 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while allowing three runs or less in seven of his 11 starts including surrendering two runs or less in six of those outings. He was not as sharp in his last start vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing five runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings, but he was not as bad as that final stat line either as he did not walk a single batter and he departed with the game tied 2-2 after loading the bases, but the bullpen then allowed all three of his baserunners to score. Miguel was masterful the last time he faced the Rays in Tampa Bay, tossing seven scoreless innings and allowing only four hits, and he is facing a Rays' lineup that ranks just 27th out of 30 Major League teams with a 239 team batting average.
With that putrid attack, it is obvious that the Rays are where they are because of pitching, and they in fact lead the majors with a 3.22 team ERA. However, Wednesday starter Alex Cobb has been a weak link going just 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA overall, although he has been better lately. In fact, he has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, but only six of them were official Quality Starts because he failed to go the required six innings in the other three outings. Cobb does have an advantage here in that this will be his first career appearance vs. the Orioles, and he is facing a Baltimore lineup that is batting only .239 vs. right-handed pitchers over the entire season. Because Cobb usually does not work deeply into games, the Tampa Bay bullpen will almost certainly be brought into play here, but that is actually to the Rays' advantage as they lead the American League in bullpen ERA at 2.78, ranking second in the Major Leagues behind only the Cincinnati Reds (2.67) in that category.
Something has to give here as the Orioles are 15-6 in their last 21 home games and the Rays are 13-6 in their last 19 road games, with both of those records pending Tuesday's result. These teams have a history of playing low scoring affairs, as the 'under' is 7-2 in the last nine meetings this season and 35-14-2 in the last 51 encounters overall.
MLB Predictions
Chicago Cubs -115
The Cubs enter tonight's game with 10 more wins than the Astros at 55-87 and just 21-53 on the road, while the Astros are 45-97 and 29-41 at home. The Cubs enjoyed a rare road sweep in Pittsburgh this weekend and followed that up with a 4-1 win against Houston in the first game before dropping last night's meeting 1-0. The Astros actually surprised us all with a series win this weekend themselves in Cincinnati, taking 2 of 3 and are now 3-2 over their last 5. Over their last 5 the Astros have scored 13 runs, while the Cubs have scored 24 runs over their past 5. Chicago will send Travis Wood to the rubber today who is 5-11 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .237 opponents batting average. Wood is better on the road with a 3-6 record and 3.92 ERA. In his last outing he went 6 innings giving up just 1 hit and 0 earned runs, and has allowed just 2 earned runs against in his last 11.2 innings of work. Fernando Abad will start for Houston tonight and he is 0-3 on the year with a 5.30 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .326 opponents batting average which includes 33 appearances. He has 3 starts (all recent) and has gone 0-3 in those starts with a 8.03 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, and .380 opponents batting average. All three starts were 4.1 innings or shorter, and he has given up 19 hits and 11 earned runs against over those 12.1 innigs of work. He has also walked 9 batters compared to 6 strike outs in the starts. Not too many good things can be said about the Cubs but they are 4-1 over their lsat 5 games, and I think Wood is a solid pitcher when he is on. The Astros are just 13-54 in their last 67 games overall, and 5-21 in their last 26 home games. They are also 0-6 in their last 6 vs a left handed starter. The Cubs have won 6 of their last 8 meetings head to head and I like them to get things done again tonight. Take the Cubs to win.
Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. San Diego
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres spent a good portion of this season as the worst hitting ballclub in all of baseball. And Petco Field has been the most pitcher friendly venue in the major leagues since it was built. No surprise, then, that we consistently see totals in the range that we’re seeing for this afternoon’s Padres-Cardinals battle lined Over/Under 7.5 runs.
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But the long term data both for the Padres lineup and for Petco has created a false impression in the betting markets. San Diego isn’t an under team right now. In their last six home games, the Padres have scored 6, 8, 6, 5, 8 and 11 runs. All six games produced at least ten runs or more; none of them had a total higher than 7. NL RBI leader Chase Headley: “That's the great thing about our lineup right now is (teams) can't just sit there and pitch around me because we have other guys who are swinging the bat so well.”
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The Cardinals, too, are trending Over, cashing six straight Over tickets heading into today’s game; very quietly going 15-4 to the Over in their last 19 ballgames. St Louis has the highest scoring lineup in the NL but their pitching staff is slumping, both the starters and the overworked bullpen behind them. Expect another high scoring affair today in a series that has produced plenty of fireworks already! Take the Over.
Scott Delaney
Are we about to see another major collapse in Los Angeles? I can't understand how a group of All-Star players come together to form an impressive lineup, and can't put together a winning run. With the experience these guys have, I'm stunned at how the Dodgers are struggling. Thus, I'm putting my money on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and will list both Trevor Cahill and Aaron Harang.
Cahill, who is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers, gets the men in blue after they were shut out in two straight. Los Angeles has already been shut out in three straight games once this season, so it would come as no surprise if it happened again.
This three-week slump has virtually handed the San Francisco Giants the National League West, and now it's uncertain if the Dodgers can wake up in time to make the postseason as a Wild Card team. They've lost 13 of 20, and have plated three runs or less in 13 of those games overall.
The Dodgers hand the ball to Harang, who is 3-7 lifetime against the Snakes, and has struggled lately to a 0-1 record and 4.70 ERA in his last three starts.
Take Arizona in this one.
3♦ DIAMONDBACKS
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is now at 106-71-3, and tonight I am playing the Over in the American League East-rivalry clash between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, at Fenway Park. After last night's walkoff win by the Red Sox, I suspect we're going to see some offensive fireworks between these two tonight.
Make note I don't care who goes for the Yankees - David Phelps or Ivan Nova - so if Phelps doesn't go and your ticket happens to be canceled, it's your responsibility to re-wager this game with Nova on the hill.
Regardless, it'll be the Yankees who dictate the pace of this game, as I think they're going to attack right-hander Aaron Cool, who is 3-9 with a 5.17 ERA on the year. At Fenway alone, he is 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA. Opponents are hitting a rather-high .294 against him, and that won't bode well against a pissed off Yankees team that is barely hanging on in the American League East. They're currently tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the division lead.
I know the Under is on a 4-1 run the last five times these two have played, but the Over is on a 19-9 streak when they meet in Boston.
The Yankees have gone over in five of six on the road and four of five after a loss, while the Crimson Hose have soared in five of seven as the home pup and four of Cook's last five home starts.
Play this one high.
3♦ Yankees/Red Sox OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Under in the Atlanta-Milwaukee contest.
The Braves have been having a very tough time manufacturing runs these days, as they have been held to just one run through the first two games played at Miller Park this week, and have played Under the total now in each of their last three games and eight of their last nine games played overall.
The Braves and the Brewers have now stayed Low in three of the last four this year, and four of the last six meetings overall since last year.
Paul Maholm was able to shake off a shaky start with five-plus innings of scoreless ball his last start against the Mets, while Milwaukee hurler Yovani Gallardo has been murder on the Bravos, going 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his six starts versus Atlanta. A closer look shows Gallardo with a 0.81 home ERA and a 2-0 mark at Miller Park versus the Braves in his last three home assignments.
With Atlanta struggling at the plate, and Milwaukee thinking they still have a shot at the second wild card spot, I will look for another low-scoring game for these two teams.
Braves-Brewers Under the total.
3♦ ATLANTA-MILWAUKEE UNDER
Chris Jordan
I swore off the Philadelphia Phillies more than a month ago, and I never thought I'd be saying this, but they're still in the playoff hunt and you cannot count them out just yet. Last night I told you I thought they'd have an easy time matching their season high with a sixth straight win, and sure enough they got it.
Now at .500, the Phillies can continue their quest toward a winning season and postseason berth. They're currently in third place in the National League East, 17 games back of the National League East-leading Washington Nationals, but only four games back in the Wild Card hunt.
When I was ready to throw in the towel on them - and I still won't play them with a premium selection - they were 14 games under .500, and it appeared they would endure a losing record for the first time since 2002.
Today they hand the ball to Cliff Lee, who is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over his past five starts, and has looked much better than he did at the start of the season. With their prize-left-hander on the hill, the Phillies are on winning runs of 4-0 against the National League East and 8-3 when he's hosting a losing team.
He'll oppose Josh Johnson in this early start, and the Marlins are mired in losing streaks of 1-4 when he's pitching on the road and 1-5 in his last six overall.
Take the Phils on the run line tonight.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Matt Rivers
13-9 with my comp plays, and tonight's comp play will be the Cincinnati Reds.
The Pirates are in jeopardy of slipping off the October playoff radar, as they have lost their last five games, and are mired in a 9-22 slide their past 31 games overall.
Cincinnati is on the verge of a three game series sweep, and they have won five of the past seven season series meetings versus Pittsburgh.
While A.J. Burnett is 3-0 with an ERA just over 2 versus the Reds this year, the fact remains Burnett is winless in his past four starts, and has an ERA well over 5 for his last six starts!
Homer Bailey will oppose with a 6-2 mark and an ERA of 3.00 in his ten starts against Pittsburgh.
Pirates backslide continues. Take the Reds.
1♦ CINCINNATI