Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 1,2010

Marc Lawrence

Phillies at Dodgers
Prediction: Under

The Phillies and Dodgers meet in 3rd and final game of this three-game series when Roy Oswalt matches serves with Clayton Kershaw at Chavez Ravine this afternoon. Aside from both hurlers being in terrific current form, neither team has been a threat with the bats. That's confirmed by the Phillies' 2.33 RPG average the last 12 contests, including 2.6 RPG the last seven away, and L.A.'s 3.0 RPG average in its last six home contests. With Oswalt sporting a 2.75 ERA along with a 1.014 WHIP on the road, and Kershaw with a 3.12 ERA and 1.143 WHIP at home this campaign, look for a low-scoring affair here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the UNDER.

Tom Freese

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Colorado Rockies

Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 19-7 in his team starts this year. The Rockies are 10-2 off a loss and they are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. winning teams. The Rockies are 19-7 in the last 36 starts made by Jimenez. Colorado is 21-6 their last their last 27 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their last game. San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has lost his last 5 starts. Lincecum is 2-5 his last 7 starts vs. Colorado. The Giants are 3-8 off a win. San Francisco is 1-4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their last game.

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Colorado Rockies

After being the underdog in the first two games of this series, the Rockies are now the favorites and for good reason. Colorado won the opener of this series before dropping Game Two last night and that makes this game rather important. Colorado is seven games behind the slumping Padres in the National League West and while that deficit may not be able to be come back from, the Wild Card race is wide open. The Rockies are 4.5 games back with San Francisco being three games up on them. The Giants are hanging around in the division as they trail the Padres by four games but they have been unable to take advantage of the San Diego skid, which has now reached six games. San Francisco simply is not playing well and it has been unable to put any sort of run together. Since a four-game winning streak at the end of July and start of August, the Giants are only 11-15 in their last 26 games while winning consecutive games only three times. One of the reasons have been struggles from their ace. Tim Lincecum has hit a rough patch of late with four straight non-quality efforts. None have even been close to good as he has posted a dismal 9.00 ERA in those four games with the Giants going 0-4 in those games. He has had some trouble with Colorado this season as in two starts he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. Colorado has actually been his biggest nemesis throughout his career as he has the highest ERA against the Rockies of any team that he has made at least five starts against. Colorado goes with its ace Ubaldo Jimenez and after a small bump in the road, he is mowing them down once again. After a six-game stretch where he posted a 7.64 ERA, Jimenez has since tossed six straight quality starts while putting up a 2.57 ERA over those games. He has been a tough luck loser as run support has fallen off but this is the prime opportunity for the Rockies to gets the bats going. His 2.31 road ERA is best in the National League for all qualified starters. Colorado is 10-2 in its last 12 games following a loss as well as going 14-2 in Jimenez’ last 16 starts when coming off a loss in its previous game. 3* Colorado Rockies

Cajun Sports

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks square-off in Game 3 of their series on Wednesday night in the desert. The Padres are 38-18 versus teams with a losing record including 12-5 when playing on the road in this situation. They are also a perfect 9-0 when Latos takes the bump on the road versus teams with a losing record. San Diego is 14-4 when playing in Game 3 of a series this season and Arizona is 9-24 in Game 3’s. One final note for the Padres we see they are 6-0 when Mike Everitt is behind home plate calling balls and strikes. Lay the chalk with the visitor as San Diego gets another Game 3 victory and Arizona falls victim to recent history once more.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Diego Padres 4 Arizona Diamondbacks 3

Rocketman

St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros

Houston off another win last night against the St Louis Cardinals shutting them out 3-0. Houston is 14-6 this year when playing on Wednesday. Houston is 35-24 this year against division opponents. St Louis has lost 7 of their last 8 games overall. Houston is 8-2 their last 10 games overall. Jeff Suppan is 1-6 with a 5.72 ERA overall this year, 1-5 with a 4.97 ERA in all starts this season and 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA on the road this year. Nelson Figueroa is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA in all games this year, 1.96 ERA in all starts this year, 1.80 ERA at home and a 1.50 ERA his last 3 starts. Suppan is 4-9 with a 4.65 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston today!

Ben Burns

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Jays exploded for 13 runs in yesterday's game. With David Price on the mound, they're unlikely to come anywhere close to that number this evening. Price has been exceptional all season and the Rays are 17-8 (+4.4) in his 25 starts.

Marcum is also enjoying a very solid season for the Jays and has pitched well recently. However, his 4.14 ERA on the road doesn't compare to Price's 2.26 ERA at home.

The price may seem a bit steep but the Rays have simply been that good at home the past few seasons. Note that they're a highly profitable 66-21 (+32.1) the last 87 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Rays are also still 20-6 the last 26 times that they hosted the Jays. Additionally, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 when Price has started against the Jays. Price was 5-0 with a superb 2.09 ERA in those games. Price has already gotten the better of Marcum twice this season (Rays won by scores of 7-3 at Toronto and 10-1 here at Tampa) and has allowed just one earned run in 23 innings against Toronto this season. Consider laying the wood.

David Chan

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves

To the growing list of dead baseball teams we add the New York Mets.

By dropping the first two games to Atlanta by the combined score of 18-5, the Mets once again have displayed their lack of character and competitiveness.

The Mets are closer to last-place Washington in the NL East than they are the first-place Braves being a whopping 12 games off the lead.

Now the battered Mets - missing four key players - draw a highly motivated and highly talented Tommy Hanson.

Hanson is off one of the worst performances of his career, a 7-1 loss to Florida in which he surrendered four homers. Could Hanson be overrated?

I'm certainly not buying into that. He had a 2.31 ERA and 1.05 WHIP during his previous eight starts. He hadn't yielded a home run prior to his last start in 47 2/3 innings. He's way overdue to win and it happens here.

Hanson has a lifetime 1.02 ERA versus the Mets with 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings.

Mike Pelfrey goes for the Mets. He's turned in four quality starts in a row after a tough middle stretch. But it's come with a price. Pelfrey has thrown 124, 119, 113 and 122 pitches during those starts.

Pelfrey is 4-7 career-wise against the Braves with a 5.45 ERA. He has pitched much worse on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field where his ERA is 2.93. Away from home, Pelfrey's ERA is 4.62.

The Mets are missing closer Francisco Rodriguez, outfielder Jason Bay and probably will be without shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Angel Pagan, who leads the team in batting and stolen bases.

The Braves own the best home mark in baseball. They are 48-18 at Turner Field. The Mets are 19-41 in their last 60 road contests against a team with a winning mark.

Jim Feist

Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Over 7½

This is a low total for an American League game. Normally you have at least one ace with a total like this, and yet for this game we're looking at No. 4 and 5 starters. Jason Vargas of the Mariners has bene struggling, with a 6.52 ERA his last three starts. The Angels come to town forced to go with Trevor Bell (5.07 ERA), who has below average stuff with opponents hitting .315 off him. He is 0-3 on the road with an ERA over 5, 4-1-1 over the total his last six road starts. Look for an offensive show, play the Angels/Mariners Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -206

The Baltimore Orioles are playing much better under new manager Buck Showalter, but they have been dominated by Boston's starting pitcher Jon Lester. In three starts against the Orioles this season Lester is 2-0 with an 0.47 ERA. In fifteen career starts Lester is 12-0 with a 2.00 ERA against Baltimore. I expect some more of the same in this game. The Orioles 24 year old rookie starting pitcher Jake Arrieta has four wins and a 5.10 ERA and has lost three straight decisions. Arrieta has a 4.32 ERA during his three start losing streak and has not won a decision since August 10th. Arrieta has pitched decently during this stretch but has not been receiving much run support which should be the case again today with Lester on the mound for Boston. Play on the Red Sox.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

San Diego over Arizona

Although the Padres are on a losing streak, feel Matt Latos will come out smoking on Wednesday to guarantee a huge win for the weary visitor. With Latos on the road, the Padres are 9-0 against a losing entity and 6-0 in game #3 of a series, whereas, Arizona is 13-40 versus a hurler with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Look for a major rebound by San Diego here.

Hollywood Sports

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Jason Vargas sports a 9-7 mark with a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for the season. And at home, he has very good given his 2.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .237 opponent's batting average. Vargas loves pitching against his AL West rival in the Angels given his 2.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .214 opponent's batting average. He should continue to find success against a Los Angeles club that has lost five straight games against a left-handed starter. Seattle has won four straight home games as a favorite. Los Angeles counters with Trevor Bell who is a meager 1-4 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. While his home/road split stats are very similar regarding ERA and opponent's batting average, we do take note that his road WHIP of 1.72 is much higher than his 1.53 WHIP at home this year. The Angels have also lost eight of their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Play Seattle here while listing both pitchers.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on New York Yankees -142

With yesterday's loss, the A's fell to 1-10 in their last 11 road meetings with the Yankees. Expect their struggles in New York to continue with Anderson on the hill this evening. The Athletics are 0-4 in the southpaw's last 4 starts. Plus, he is 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.68 in his career against the Yankees. Burnett has really been getting hit hard, but I believe a ridiculously bad start against Chicago his last time out will wake him up tonight. He has won his only start against the A's this season, allowing only 2 runs on 5 hits at Oakland, and he has a very solid 3.81 lifetime ERA against the A's. Plus, the Yankees are 7-2 in Burnett's last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. The Yankees are an awesome 85-32 in their last 117 home games, and I'll back them at a decent price tonight.

BIG AL

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

The only person happier to see Johnny Cueto's last outing than the manager of coaches of the Reds was probably Cueto himself. The hard-throwing righthander has a history (albeit a short one) of 2nd half meltdowns like in 2009 when he went 3-5; 5.81 after going 8-6; 3.62 prior to the break and similarly in his rookie season when he had two wins after the break as compared to seven prior. So imagine how thrilled the Reds must be that, after back to back poor efforts on August 10 and 21 (making it three out four starts that were sub-par), Cueto came out in his last outing on August 27, and threw a gem - eight innings with one run on six hits with eight strikeouts and no walks - against the Cubs at home. Now he can make it two in a row and really put some demons and doubts behind him as his team will need him to be sharp in this last month of the season with the NL Central race likely coming down to the wire. He's in a great position to do just that as Cincy has been absolutely dominant against the Brewers lately, taking eight of the last nine contests heading into this series. And his team is facing a lefthander in Chris Narveson who, despite a winning record (10-7) has really struggled keeping men off the basepaths this season which has resulted in a career-worst 5.52 ERA heading into this, his 23rd start of the season. Take the Reds.

TEDDY COVERS

Athletics @ Yankees
PICK: Over 9

My clients and I cashed an Over ticket betting against AJ Burnett at the Cell in Chicago in his last start. The ChiSox lit him up for nine runs in just 3.1 innings of work. In his previous start, the lowest scoring team in the majors (Seattle) hammered him for 12 hits and six runs right here in the Bronx. In his home start prior to that, Toronto blasted him for eight runs in 4.2 innings. Clearly, AJ Burnett is not a pitcher worth trusting right now, even against a relatively weak Oakland lineup.

Meanwhile, the Yankees lineup is on an absolute tear, despite A-Rod being on the DL. The Bronx Bombers have scored nine runs or more eight times in their last 13 games, including six of their last seven at home. A’s starter Brett Anderson pitched here twice last year, and neither outing was pretty, allowing 18 hits and nine earned runs in just 12 innings of work, as Oakland lost 9-7 and 8-3. Anderson was forced to leave with a sprained knee after two ugly innings at Texas in his last start; primed for more struggles here against the highest scoring team in baseball. 2* Take the Over.

LARRY NESS

San Diego Padres @ Diamondbacks
PICK: San Diego Padres

San Diego’s skid began with an 11-5 loss to Arizona last Thursday in San Diego. It continued when the team was swept at home by the Phils this past weekend and has grown to a season-high six games (previous worst was a three-game losing streak in 2010) and continued with a 7-2 loss in Arizona Monday night, then a 7-4 defeat last night at Chase Field. What's going on? The Padres have now lost 12 of 17 at Chase Field since the start of last season but will have staff ace Mat Latos on the hill late this afternoon. Latos is 13-5 with a 2.29 ERA in 2010 and owns a streak of 13 consecutive starts in which he’s yielded two ERs or less (has allowed two ERs or less in 18 of his last 19, allowing three ERs in the lone exception!). That's quite remarkable and in his only previous appearance against the D'backs (8/8/10), Latos allowed two hits and struck out six over six scoreless innings of a 10-1 win at Arizona. If not with Latos on the hill, who will be able to help San Diego break its current slide? Arizona rookie Barry Enright (5-2, 2.44 ERA) makes his first appearance against the Padres in this game. The D'backs are a modest 6-5 in his 11 starts but he's pitched better than that. The team has won four of his last five outings (2.05 ERA) but in the end, I'm relying on Latos. He's come through all season for the Padres and they really need him here. Take San Diego.

Info Plays

3* on Milwaukee Brewers +160

Reasons the Brewers win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CINCINNATI) - good offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, after scoring 8 runs or more. This is a 35-18 ML System hitting 66% since 1997 while gaining +34.9 units. Bet the Brewers on the road.

Dennis Macklin

Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins

The Nats and Fish are playing out the string but if last night's 1-0 extra-inning win by Florida is any indication, neither team has quit. The home team has a huge edge in starting pitching tonight as Nat starter Scott Olsen has thrown batting practice the last month going 0-5 with an 8.37 ERA. He lost 9-5 to the Marlins back on August 11th giving up seven earned while registering just five outs. Florida's Chris Volstad is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last pair and is 3-0 this year against the Nasty Nats. If current form holds, the Marlins are easy winners.

Black Widow

1* on Colorado Rockies -110

With Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound, we'll take the Rockies to get the job done tonight in San Francisco against the overmatched Tim Lincecum. Jimenez is 17-5 with a 2.71 ERA this season, and 9-4 with a 2.31 ERA on the road. The righty is 5-4 with a 3.21 ERA in 13 career starts against the Giants. Lincecum is 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA in his last 5 starts, and 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.057 WHIP in his two starts against Colorado this year. Following a loss, the Rockies are 15-2 in Jimenez's last 17 starts so he gets them back in the win column 88% of the time. Jimenez is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season, and Colorado is winning 5.7 to 2.2 on average. Take the Rockies on the Money Line.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -109

Bottom Line: The Rockies are 4-1 the last 5 times Jimenez has faced off against Lincecum, so I'll gladly take the Rockies here considering Lincecum's recent struggles. Known for going deep into games, the reigning two-time NL Cy Young winner appears to finally be running out of gas. The Giants have lost each of Lincecum's last 5 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of 7.80 over his last 3. Jimenez has been the better of these two aces this season, and I won't hesitate to back him in this bounce back spot, considering the Rockies are 14-2 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take the Rockies tonight.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -1.5 -106

I will back the Rangers Wednesday as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 9-10 loss to the Royals last night. No way do I think K.C. can put up double-digit runs again, but I would not be surprised to see the Rangers go for 10 or more runs against Bryan Bullington and this poor Royals bullpen. Bullington is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP this season, allowing 20 earned runs and 50 base runners in 30 innings. The Royals are 0-2 in Bullington's last 2 starts, where he has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs and 25 base runners in 9 innings for a 13.00 ERA and 2.778 WHIP.

Tommy Hunter has been as steady as a rock for most of the season, going 11-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 16 starts for the Rangers. The Rangers are 13-3 in those 16 games as well. Hunter is 17-3 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons, with the Rangers winning by 2.9 RPG in this spot. Hunter is 11-1 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons, with Texas outscoring their foes by 4.2 RPG in this situation. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.