Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 14,2011

Scott Spreitzer

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Sep
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

Detroit has virtually run away with the AL Central, but on Wednesday, I expect the Tigers to take a rare loss. Brad Penny starts for the road team today and he has not pitched well on the road this season. Penny has also been roughed-up in his last three outings, allowing 15 earned runs and 29 base runners in just 15 IP. One of those rough outings came against these White Sox on September 3. Penny didn't pitch well, but his team won the game 9-8, thanks to great run support. Today, the Tigers face young Dylan Axelrod, who'll be making his first MLB start. Axelrod pitched 2 shutout innings of relief against the Twins on September 7. The righthander went 6-1 in 15 starts with Triple-A Charlotte, sporting a fantastic 2.27 ERA. He owns the advantage of making his first start and Detroit has yet to "get the goods" on the 26-year old. I believe he'll help his team to a daytime win on Wednesday. I'm backing the White Sox.

Hollywood Sports

Indians at Rangers
Prediction: Over

While the Indians' David Huff enjoys a sizzling 0.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .182 opponent's batting average when at home this season, he sees these numbers skyrocket to a 4.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .238 opponent's batting average when on the road. How best to manipulate this situation? Cleveland has played 7 straight games Over the Total when facing a team with a winning record. And the Indians have played 6 straight games Over the Total when on the road. And while Cleveland lost the opening game of their series with Texas by a 10-4 score, they have played 7 straight games Over the Total coming off a loss. The Indians face Derek Holland who struggles at home given his 4.96 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .300 opponent's batting average as compared to his very respectable 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .246 opponent's batting average this season. The Rangers have played 7 straight home games Over the Total as a favorite in the -151 to -200 price range with Holland on the hill. And the Over is 7-1-3 in Texas' last 11 games overall. Take the Over in this contest while listing both starting pitchers.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics

The Angels picked up a much needed win in Oakland last night, beating the A's 6-3. They should be able to follow that up with another easy victory this afternoon as Jered Weaver takes the mound. After suffering rare back to back poor outings, Weaver came back with a gem his last time out, striking out 11 Yankees while allowing just three hits over eight innings in a 2-1 Angels victory as -130 favorites. Weaver has had the A's number this year w/ a 3-0 TSR, allowing just three runs total. Oakland starter Rich Harden has a poor 7.63 ERA L3 starts.

Play on: LA Angels

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels picked up a big win last night to remain three games back in the American League West. Now they turn to their ace to try and salvage the series win before heading east for two more series. Jered Weaver put together consecutive poor efforts against the Rangers and Twins but came back strong with a quality outing last time out against the Yankees. He is 16-7 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 30 starts, 25 of which have been quality outings. He has tossed three quality starts against the A's this season and four straight going back to last year. Oakland counters with Rich Harden who is coming off a below average effort against the Royals as he allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings despite striking out 10. He has pitched pretty well at home this season with a 3.86 ERA in six starts with Oakland going just 3-3 in those games. Negating those decent performances has been his struggles during the day as Harden has a dismal 5.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in six early starts. The A's are 1-4 in his last five starts as well as 1-4 in his last five starts as an underdog while the Angels are 9-4 in their last 13 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 3* Los Angeles Angels

Rocketman

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets

Washington is 18-38 last 3 years as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Washington is scoring only 3.9 runs per game overall this year and 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. Brad Peacock makes his 2nd appearance of the year and 1st start. He has pitched in one game so far and gave up four hits in a little over an inning of work, struck out none and walked one. His ERA sits at 6.75 on the season. Mike Pelfrey has been his best at home with a 3-3 record and a 3.87 ERA. We'll recommend a small play on NY Mets tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Twins vs. Royals
Play: Under 8.5

This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win scoring 4 or less runs on 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with 4 or less men left on base. If the total is less than 10 this system cashes a shade over 80%. The Twins anemic offense is averaging just 2 runs per game the past week and they have gone under in 12 of the last 12 vs losing teams. The Royals have played under in 5 of the last 6 games. They have L. Hochevar going today and he has pitched under in 7 of his last 9 starts. He opposes Twins rookie Hendricks here today and Hendricks is another Solid, September, Minnesota call up this season. In his first start he went a solid 7 innings allowing just 3 runs. Look for this one to stay under tonight.

BIG AL

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
PICK: Under 10.5

It's no secret that John Lackey has not had a very effective year in his second season in a Red Sox uniform. But what may be not so obvious is the fact that at least part of Lackey's problem has been a lack (no pun intended) of run support from the potent Boston lineup. In fact, in almost a third of Lackey's starts (eight out of 25), the Sox have scored a total of two or fewer runs, and they've been completely shut out in four of Lackey's outings. And while that may not seem like a lot, consider that the Sox have only been held scoreless a total of 12 times all season, so that's one-third of all the Boston shutouts that have happened on Lackey's watch. And lately, Boston's offense has been particularly anemic when Lackey goes to the hill at home as the Sox have scored just six runs in Lackey's last three starts at Fenway. They may have more issues this afternoon as lefthanded ace Rickey Romero will get his 30th start of the season, and Romero is having his best season as a Major Leaguer, going 14-10 with a 3.01 ERA and one more victory will give Romero a career-best mark of 15. None of Romero's 14 road starts have gone a total of more than 10 runs and only three of them have gone that many. Take the 'under.'

Sean Murphy

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been a streaky team this season, but that hasn't been a bad thing, as most of their streaks have involved wins rather than losses.

I see this as a fine opportunity to get behind them at what could be the start of another long winning streak. Note that the Brew Crew have won back-to-back games following a five-game skid.

This is no time for a letdown, as the Cardinals remain within striking distance, just 6.5 games back in the N.L. Central.

Despite their recent struggles, the Brewers remain a dominant force here at home, where they're 52-22 on the season. By contrast, tonight's opponent, the Colorado Rockies, check in at 31-42 on the road.

Journeyman right-hander Kevin Millwood gets the nod for the Rockies on Wednesday. He tossed seven shutout innings two starts back, but keep in mind, that start came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. He wasn't nearly as sharp in his most recent outing, giving up 10 hits and four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-3 home loss to the D'Backs.

After facing the Reds, Marlins, Dodgers (twice), Padres, and D'Backs in his first six starts this season, Millwood will be facing his toughest test to date on Wednesday. The Brewers have been held to three runs or less in each of their last seven games, but they're certainly capable of busting out at any moment, and remain one of the N.L.'s most explosive offensive teams.

Shaun Marcum will counter for Milwaukee. He was roughed up by the Phillies in his last start, but that's not all that concerning, as we're talking about arguably the best team in baseball. Prior to that, Marcum had allowed a grand total of four earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 34 2/3 innings of work.

Marcum has pitched exceptionally well against the Rockies this season, leading the Brewers to a pair of victories while giving up only eight hits and three earned runs in 13 innings.

The Milwaukee bullpen has had absolutely nothing to do with the team's recent issues. Brewer relievers have combined to post a sparkling 1.01 ERA over the last 10 games. While Colorado's 'pen has also been sharp lately, I won't be surprised if they're pressed into early duty with Millwood on the hill tonight.

The Rockies remain a banged up club with Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton both nursing injuries. Both started last night, but they weren't able to finish the game.

The Brewers fall into their best situational spot tonight, as they're 19-8 in Game 2 of a series following a victory this season. We have to lay some considerable chalk to back them tonight, but it's well worth it in my opinion. Take Milwaukee

Nick Parsons

Yankees @ Mariners
PICK: Over

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the the "over":

Coming into Tuesday the Yanks are 89-57; 46-27 at home and 43-30 on the road.

New York has seen the total go "over" the number in just 66 of 135 this year (with 11 "pushes").

Ivan Nova (15-4, 3.94 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Nova gave up three runs in 5 1/3's innings in the Yankees 5-4, 10-inning loss to Baltimore last Thursday.

The setback broke his record of eight straight victories; Nova has been the beneficiary of a ton of run support this season, as evidenced by his 7-2, 4.42 ERA road record this year.

In the other dugout: Coming into Tuesday the Mariners are 61-86 this year; 34-39 at home and 27-47 on the road.

Seattle has seen the total go "over" the number in just 64 of 137 this year (with ten "pushes").

Jason Vargas (8-13, 4.49 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Vargas is coming off a 4-1 win over the Royals last Thursday; note though that he had gone 0-3 over his previous four starts, posting a horrible 8.72 ERA over that span.

Vargas is 0-2 vs. the Yanks this year, getting lit up for 14-runs in just seven innings of work.

Bottom line: When taking into account all of the above information, the prudent wager in this situation is the "over".

David Chan

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

Rickey Romero (14-10, 3.01 ERA) gets the start for the Jays.

Romero won for his seventh time in his last nine outings in his team's 7-4 victory over the Reds Sox last Thursday.

He sports a spectacular 164-to-77 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 200 1/3's frames of work this year.

Romero will look to finish the season strong and against a team he's had difficulties with this year; note though that he's 6-7 with a respectable 3.01 ERA on the road this season.

Romero will be opposed by John Lackey (12-12, 6.30 ERA) who will look to get back on track here in front of the home town crowd.

Lackey is just 1-2 with a horrible 12.00 ERA in three starts for the Blue Jays this year; however, this is a big opportunity for Lackey to turn a corner and help his recently struggling team gain some momentum in the AL East.

All signs point to a lower-scoring affair!

Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Colorado Rockies

Milwwaukee is a great park for hitters and Colorado comes into town with a strong attack, ranked 8th in runs scored, 7th in on base percentage and 9th in slugging. They go with Kevin Milwood and his sinker, which is a good fit in a small park. Milwood (2-2, 3.79 ERA) has been impressive and in his last three starts he has a 3.00 ERA with 1 walk and 14 Ks! The Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the National League Central, while the Brewers are 2-6 in Shaun Marcum's last 8 home starts, making this a great spot for the dog. Play the Rockies.

EZWINNERS

St. Louis Cardinals -145

The Pirates starting pitcher Charlie Morton is suffering from a tired arm in my opinion. Pittsburgh is monitoring his innings as Morton has already logged a career high 152 2/3 this year and will be pitching on eight days rest in this start. Morton has only one win in his last nine starts and over his last three starts has posted an 0-3 record with an ERA of 7.71. Morton will not have much margin for error with Edwin Jackson on the mound for St. Louis. Jackson has pitched extremely well since being traded to St. Louis. Jackson has allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and six out of his last seven starts. Over his last three outings Jackson's ERA is only 2.25 and he is 3-0 lifetime against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are just 17-38 in Morton's last fifty five starts and I don't see the Buc's fortunes changing in this game. Play on St. Louis.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis -141 over PITTSBURGH: After his first 2 starts with the Cards Edwin Jackson was just 1-1 with a high 5.78, but in his last 7 starts he has gone 3-1 with fine 2.64 ERA. That's the pitcher they were looking to get when they traded him. Edwin has faced Pitt once this year and is 1-0, allowing just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. The Pirate pitching staff was ranked in the top 10 for much of the year, but have since fallen to 16. In their last 10 games they have put up a 4.85 ERA overall and a 6.36 ERA from their starters. Charlie Morton has really helped with the recent bad numbers as he comes in with an 0-3 mark and a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has faced the Cards 3 times this year and he is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. Far too many men on base, especially vs the Cards who come in hitting .297 with an OBP of .350 vs right-handed pitching in their last 10 games. They have also scored 4.72 rp/9 vs them in that stretch. The Pirate offense has taken a bit of a leave of absence of last as they have averaged just 3.4 rpg in their last 10 games. not gonna get it done vs a Cards team that has it's sights set on catching the Braves in the Wildcard race. Cards take a big one here.

Boston/ Toronto Over 10.5: The last 4 games in this series has seen these teams put up video game like numbers, as they have averaged 17.5 rpg over that stretch and there is 2 starters on the mound today that should ensure that that trend continues. Rickey Romero comes in with a 5.12 ERA in his last 3 starts, despite posting a winning record (2-1) and 10.33 rpg have been scored in those starts. Like Morrow last night, Ricky has struggled with Boston as he has posted a 7.33 ERA in his last 10 starts vs them, including an 8.21 ERA in his 3 starts vs them this year, plus in his last 4 starts in Fenway he has a 7.48 ERA. John Lackey has just been a bad pitcher overall this year, with a 6.30 ERA, including a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 6.35 ERA at home. Oh and by the way, his day time ERA is even higher at 7.49. Let's also note that Lackey has really struggled with the Jays as he has a 9.69 ERA vs them in his 7 starts as a member of the Sox. The Jays offense is top 5 in scoring at 4.68 rpg, while the Sox are #1 at 5.45 rpg. Boston also scores 5.69 rpg at home and 6.2 rpg in day games, plus they kill left handed pitching at home to the tune of .308 and 6.47 rp/9. We may not see 24 runs like last night, but i do expect from 13-15 runs and another easy Over winner between these teams.

2 UNIT PLAY

Oakland/ LA Angels Over 7: And yet still another low OU line for an Oakland home game. Jered Weaver has been a strong pitcher for much of the year, but in his last 3 starts he has a 6.63 ERA and those games averaged 11 rpg. Rich Harden also has struggled with a 7.63 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts, plus we also note that he has a 5.97 ERA in 6 day starts, with those starts averaging 15.5 rpg. WOW!. The Over is 10-1-3 in the last 14 games between these teams here and in 8 games played here this year, 7 of them put 7 or more runs on the board. The first two in this series put up 9 runs each game and i see more of the same today.

1 UNIT PLAY

ATLANTA -149 over Florida: The Braves have seen a big league in the wildcard race dwindle down to just 4.5 games and they need to keep winning in order to keep the pressure on a charging St Louis squad. The Marlins have not been a good team for much of the year and won't pose much of a threat here.

David Banks

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Under

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to take one step closer towards locking up the NL West pennant when Daniel Hudson leads them into battle against Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the series finale; first pitch from Chavez Ravine is scheduled for 10:10 ET.

It’s been nothing but joyful and lucrative for MLB bettors that have watched this young D’Backs squad gain confidence with every passing week of the season. Manager Kirk Gibson and his staff have turned one of the youngest teams in all of baseball into the most profitable over the course of the season, as the Snakes 86-62 overall record heading into Game 2 on Tuesday night has netted an MLB best $2828 for its wagering supporters. They hold what looks to be an insurmountable 8.5-game lead over the defending champion Giants for the top spot in the division, and their magic # to qualify for the post season now rests at seven-games. Zona’s won five of its L/6 away from Chase Field.

The Dodgers have been a major disappointment out west this season, as the team has grossly failed to form any rhythm with their longest overall winning streak reaching just six games; it was snapped just over a week ago. Having said that, LA has won each of its L/6 series played most recently getting the best of St. Louis, Colorado, San Diego, Atlanta, Washington and San Francisco. Too little too late, but the Dodgers are certainly playing the type of ball fans of the franchise hoped they’d play throughout the entirety of the season. The Dodgers sit an even 36-36 (-$656) at home after dropping this series’ opener on Monday night.

The road team has won eight of these division rivals 13 overall 2011 meetings to date; Tuesday pending. The ‘over’ has cashed each of the L/4 times these teams went at it in Dodgers Stadium. Daniel Hudson enters his 31st start of the season 16-9 with a 3.41 ERA & .256 BAA. He’s 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA & .121 WHIP in two career starts vs. LA, and the Diamondbacks have won each of his L/4 outings against divisional opposition. However, Clayton Kershaw has put forth a season worthy of NL Cy Young Award consideration. He’s 18-5 on a 72 win ball club and sports a stellar 2.36 ERA & 1.00 WHIP with a K/BB ratio of 231/51. LA’s won each of his L/6 and 11 of his 14 overall home starts to date.