Bryan Power
Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
I've done quite well with these "free" selections the L9 days and that trend continued yesterday with an easy winner on Detroit. Today, I will look to go against the sinking Indians, who have now dropped six of eight to fall way off the pace in the American League Central. Cleveland has had little success through the years vs the Rangers, losing 19 of 23 games, including seven of eight in 2011. Last night was a 10-4 loss in the series opener. That was the fourth straight game the Texas offense has scored seven runs or more as they continue to score 'runs in bunches' here at home, averaging better than six per game. Indians starter David Huff has not gotten much support his last two outings, both losses on the road. Rangers starter Derek Holland has been particularly sharp w/ a 1.77 ERA L3 starts and looking back further, he is 5-1 his last nine trips to the mound w/ a 2.65 ERA. In seven of those nine starts, he's held opponents to 3 ER or less. I see no reason why the Rangers should not completely dominate the Indians this evening. 5* on Texas.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +120 over N.Y. METS
Though he never posted an ERA under 4.15 prior to the '11 campaign, Brad Peacock has been one of the top pitchers in baseball. He was leading the Double-A Eastern League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Improved and more consistent velocity is one reason for Peacock's success, but it is also the evolution of his secondary stuff and better command. His fastball sits between 89-96 mph and his slider is one of the better breaking pitches in the Nationals system. He can pitch up and be subject to HR, but he continues to improve in that regard. Once he hones his changeup, he could become a mainstay in the rotation, potentially as a #2 starter. At Triple-AAA Syracuse, Peacock went 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA with a BAA of .205 and in Double-AA they only hit .179 off him. Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey will never be more than an inning eating, low skilled starter. He’s experiencing another second half skills erosion that has seen him walk 18 batters and strike out 15 over his past 29 innings. Mets have dropped six of seven including the first two games of this series against Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang and scored a lousy four runs combined. Play: Washington +120 (Risking 2 units).
BALTIMORE +130 over Tampa Bay
That Rays loss last night combined with the Red Sox win may have taken a little steam out of the then surging Rays. After a huge run, Tampa is four games back of the Sox and they have a four-game set on deck with Boston beginning tomorrow. Surely, that’s a look-ahead series. Expectations for Wade Davis were high heading into 2011. He went 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA in the second half of 2010, leading to speculation of a breakout season. With lackluster results and a DL stint with a strained forearm, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. xERA of 4.66 on the year shows his true skill level. Despite the splendid 2010 second half ERA, his xERA was 4.56 over that time frame. While his control has declined slightly, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Davis also has a fly-ball bias profile and at this park, that’s a jack waiting to happen. Everything about Davis is average or worse. The series between these teams has been pretty even this year. TAM has won 9 of 17, but has scored only one more run than the Orioles so it’s not like the Rays are dominating this host. Jeremy Guthrie is on a pretty nice run too. Guthrie has an ERA of 2.53 over his last four starts and could shine again here against this soft hitting line-up. Rays are overpriced here with Davis on the hill and a soft hitting line-up behind him. Play: Baltimore +130 (Risking 2 units).
John Ryan
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Colorado Rockies
5* graded play on Colorado as they take on Milwaukee set to start at 8:10 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Rockies will get a shocking upset winner tonight. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 124-89 making 44 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play on any team that is an average hitting team batting between .255 to .269 starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing and now facing a good starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=3.70. Milwaukee is in good shape in the NL Central having a six game lead over the surging Cardinals. They are just 5-5 over their last 10 games and their starter Marcum is coming off a horrid start where he allowed five ER on nine hits in a 5-3 loss versus Philadelphia. He has not pitched well in home games overall posting a 4.15 ERA and a 1.232 WHIP in 15 starts. Brewers are just 6-9 in his 15 home starts this season. Take Colorado.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -138
The D-backs are playing fantastic baseball right now, but I like LA ace Kershaw to get the better of them tonight. The Dodgers have won 12 of his last 15 starts, and he has given up 1 or no earned runs in 9 of those outings. The southpaw has been nearly unhittable at home, where he is 10-1 with an ERA of 1.80. The Dodgers have won each of his last 6 home starts and 5 of his last 6 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Hudson is having a strong season for Arizona, but he has had some difficulties on the road, where he has posted an ERA of 3.95 and the D-backs have only won 8 of his 15 starts. We'll bet the Dodgers.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -139
Every game from here on out is a must-win for the Tampa Bay Rays. Their playoff push took a slight hit with the team losing for the first time in six games. Facing the major league leader in losses should help Joe Maddon's team rebound. The Rays sit four games behind the Boston Red Sox for the wild card spot.
Jeremy Guthrie gets the ball for the Orioles and I'm expecting him to become the majors' first 18-game loser in four years. Guthrie is 7-17 with a 4.29 ERA on the season, including 3-7 with a 4.97 ERA at home. He is also 5-10 with a 4.15 ERA in 18 career starts against Tampa.
The Rays have won seven of the last eight starts by Wade Davis (10-8, 4.36 ERA). Davis is coming off his second career complete game, giving up six hits while striking out eight and walking none in a 7-2 win over Boston on Friday. The right-hander introduced a cutter in shutting down one of the majors' top offenses. The righty is 4-0 with a 3.27 ERA in five career outings in Baltimore.
The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays are 7-0 in Davis' last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. Tampa is 13-3 in Davis' last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 22-56 in their last 78 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 19-44 in Guthrie's last 63 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Rays Wednesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks +130
An Arizona club that has won 18 of its last 21 is showing value at this price today. The D-backs have won 9 of the 14 meetings in this series this season, including 6 of 8 on the road. Kershaw has been terrific, but Hudson has been just as good lately. He's 4-0 with a 1.14 ERA in his last 4 starts and 2-0 lifetime with 1.53 ERA against the Dodgers. We'll back the D-backs.
RANDY BRUCE
Tigers/White Sox Over 9.5
Detroit's offense is rolling along and gets to face a kid making his first career start today, and Brad Penny is on the mound for Detroit, and he is a big fan of giving up runs. Look for both teams to score early and often, and this over should hit earlier in the game rather than later.
Black Widow
1* on Minnesota Twins +143
The Minnesota Twins are showing some of their best value of the season Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Kansas City Royals. KC should not be getting this much respect from odds makers today. Luke Hochevar is 10-11 with a 4.73 ERA in 30 starts this year for the Royals. He should never be this heavily favored. The Twins send young prospect Liam Hendricks to the mound, who will be looking to build off of an impressive debut. Hendricks allowed three earned runs and seven base runners in seven innings of a 0-3 loss to the White Sox on 9/6. Hochevar is 3-3 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Minnesota. The Twins are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings with Kansas City. The Royals are 1-4 in Hochevar's last 5 home starts vs. Twins. The value is clearly there to pull the trigger on the Twins in this one folks. Take Minnesota on the Money Line.
Steve Janus
Diamondbacks/Dodgers UNDER 6
Look for a very low scoring game between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers on Wednesday. The total is set low at just 6 runs, but with the pitching matchup on hand it should easily stay under that mark.
Arizona will send out Daniel Hudson, who is 16-9 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 2011. Hudson seems to have saved his best stuff for late in the year. He is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in his last three starts. I see no reason why he won't keep that up against LA. Hudson is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.509 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers
The Dodgers will send out Clayton Kershaw, who is 18-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.001 WHIP on the season. Kershaw is 10-1 with a 1.80 ERA at home and 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his last three starts. He too should continue to throw well as he holds a 5-2 mark with a 2.35 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Diamondbacks. BET THE UNDER!
We'll side with the OVER 8.5 runs tonight in the Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles matchup. After two low scoring affairs in games one and two in this series, we feel the over is showing value for game 3 tonight. Tampa Bay starter Wade Davis has not fared well on the road this year, where he owns a 5.38 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. His last time on the hill in Baltimore was back in June and he surrendered 5 runs in only 6 innings of work. Note that Baltimores line-up averages 4.61 runs/game at home vs RHP. Still, Davis has a winning road record because he has been helped with an outstanding run support average of 6.17 runs/game, and he should be able to get those type of numbers again tonight as the Rays tee off on Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is 3-9 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.41 WHIP at home on the season. The last time he faced the Rays was just 10 days ago, and Tampa Bay managed to score 7 runs in just 5 innings. That game was in Tampa Bay where the Rays dont average many runs at all. Guthrie will be facing a Rays line-up tonight that is averaging 6.47 runs/game over their last 10 vs RHP, and 4.7 runs/game overall on the road this year. The over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 3 of a series, 8-0 in Davis' last 8 road starts, and 10-1 in Davis' last 11 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Meanwhile, the over is 20-5-1 in Baltimores last 26 during game 3 of a series, 12-1 in Guthries last 13 home starts, and 6-1 in Guthries last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Play the over 8.5 in Baltimore tonight.