Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 15,2010

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers take on the Rangers in Texas this evening when they send Rick Porcello to the mound against Colby Lewis at the Ballpark in Arlington. Porcello is back in terrific form with wins in six of his last seven team starts, including each of his last four in a row - including two walks and 16 strikeouts in those four wins. With the Rangers 2-8 in Lewis' last 10 starts, look for the Tigers to tame the Rangers here tonight.

Tom Freese

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

Oakland starter Trevor Cahill has allowed 3 or less runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. The Athletics are 47-23 their last 70 games as favorites and they are 20-9 vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 17-4 with Cahill as a favorite. Oakland is 4-0 off a loss and they are 7-1 on Wednesday. Kansas City starter Bruce Chen is 8-11 in 19 starts this year. Chen has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. The Royals are 20-42 off a win and they are 19-45 vs. AL West teams. Kansas City is 3-9 their last 12 games and they are 4-10 their last 14 games vs. righty starters.

Matt Fargo

LA Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: LA Angels

The Angels had their four-game winning streak snapped last night by the Indians but they are in excellent shape to get it back tonight. Los Angeles is 11 games better than Cleveland including a game in home/road splits and that is pretty significant in the league as we rarely see a road team with more success than the home team. In this case it is not much but with a pitching edge, it adds to it which also adds to the value. Cleveland has been playing pretty average which has been the case the entire season and obviously playing at home gives it no advantages. Ever since sweeping Detroit back in mid-July, the Indians have gone only 10-19 in their last 29 home games and their near .500 record at home has pushed them to 10 games under .500. The pitching has been great of late but it has been negated by a putrid offense. Jered Weaver gets the call for Los Angeles and he has been able to maintain a very solid season despite laying for a losing team. He has a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his 30 starts with the Angels going 15-15 in those games. His numbers are far worse on the road but that is mostly due to playing the really good teams as the Angels are 7-2 in Weaver’s last nine road starts against teams with a losing record. He currently leads the American League in strikeouts with 211. The Indians counter with Jeanmar Gomez who is having a very fine season in his limited action. He has made eight starts and posted a 3.07 ERA and he has been even better at home with a 1.50 ERA and Cleveland going 4-0 in his four home starts. This adds to the value of the Angels as well based no the contrarian angle in that undefeated record. The problem is that he has struggled of late with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts. Weaver is 8-0 this season against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460 while the Indians are 0-11 this season against American League starters with a WHIP of 1.10 or better. 3* Los Angeles Angels

Steve Merril

Angels vs. Indians
Play: Under 7.5

Jered Weaver makes his 31st start for the Angels this season as they continue their series with the Indians in Cleveland on Wednesday night. Weaver is 11-11 with a 3.06 ERA and 19 Unders in his 30 starts. The righty has given up five runs and 16 hits in his last 23 innings pitched. Weaver held the Indians to one run and seven hits in six innings of work in a start back in April. The last time Weaver pitched in Cleveland against the Indians, he went the distance after giving up seven hits in a 3-0 victory. Travis Hafner (1-18), Asdrubal Cabrera (3-16), Andy Marte (1-7), Chris Gimenez (0-4), and Jayson Nix (0-3) all struggle with Weaver. The Indians have played 10 straight games Under the total as their offense has scored just 24 runs over that span. They are hitting just under .215 as a team in their last eight games as well. Cleveland’s Jeanmar Gomez has enjoyed success this season when pitching at home. He's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts at Progressive Field giving up no more than two earned runs in any of those starts. The Angels have gone Under in two straight games and Under in five of their last seven games overall. The Angels are hitting right around .215 as a team in their last eight games. The Indians bullpen did the job last night and continued their success at home. Six of the seven meetings between these two teams have gone Under the total this year, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight between the Angels and Indians.

Rocketman

LA Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
LA Angels

LA Angels are 70-74 overall this year while Cleveland is now 59-85 overall this season. LA Angels are 43-27 last 3 years on the road when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Cleveland is 24-49 the past 3 years when playing on Wednesday. LA Angels have won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Jered Weaver has a 3.06 ERA overall this year and has a 1.96 ERA his last 3 starts. Weaver has 22 strikeouts and only 4 walks his last 3 starts. Jeanmar Gomez is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Weaver is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on LA Angels tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets

The Mets fit a solid system here tonight that has cashed 20 of 24 times. The only thing that makes this a free play is the elevated line. What we want to do is play on certain home favorites off a home favored win at -140 or higher if they won by 5 or more runs with 10 or more hits vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base. The Pirates are 1-14 as a road dog from + 125 to +150 and have lost 23 of 30 games against teams that are under .500. Plus the Pirates are hitting just .213 the past week. Pat Malholm makes the start her tonight and he has an era over 11 the past 3 starts. Tonight he takes on Mets rookie righty Meija. Look for the Mets to get this one here tonight.

BIG AL

Dodgers @ Giants
PICK: Giants

Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley and San Francisco starter Matt Cain are two righthanders with almost identical records and ERAs under four runs, so you might be tempted to say they're having comparable seasons. But the fact is that Billingsley and Cain's seasons are going in pretty much opposite directions as the 2010 campaign winds down. Cain is poised to have 200 innings for the fourth season in a row, and he seems to be getting stronger as we go into September, with just one walk in each of his last six starts. Billingsley has been hampered by nagging injuries this season, may not reach 200 innings, and seems to be wearing down now, having control issues with five walks surrendered in two of his last three starts. Their run support has been quite different as well, with the Giants having scored a very healthy 42 runs in the last six games that Cain has started, while the anemic Dodgers have only plated a total of 18 in Billingsley's last six. Cain has always loved pitching in his home ballpark but perhaps this season more than ever as the hard-throwing 25-year-old is just 4-7 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 starts on the road, but 7-3 and 2.70 in 14 outings at AT&T Park. There are only two injuries listed for the entire San Francisco roster, and they're both on the offense (Andres Torres and Mark DeRosa - who's been out all season anyway) and their pitching staff is 100% healthy. Take the Giants.

Scott Spreitzer

Twins @ White Sox
PICK: Under 8.5

Chicago righthander Gavin Floyd has been a very good pitcher the past three seasons (including most of 2010), but he can't be happy with what has happened with his run support. In 2008, Floyd had very good support numbers, with 5.8 runs average per start. Last season, Floyd saw that number reduced by a full run to 4.8, and so far through his first 29 starts of 2010, Floyd's support has nose-dived to 3.6 runs per start. Despite this lack of help from his hitters, Floyd still has a chance to top his 2009 win total of 11, as he comes into this game with 10 wins. Unfortunately, his team will be facing one of the hottest lefthanders in the AL in Minnesota's Brian Duensing. To say that the 27-year-old southpaw has been a pleasant surprise since becoming a full-time member of the Twins rotation would be an understatement as Duensing has gone 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA this season. More bad news for the Sox chances to score runs tonight. Chicago is batting just .253 vs. lefties. The "Manny era" in Chicago hasn't quite worked out as the outfielder acquired off waivers from the Dodgers has done virtually nothing since coming over to the Windy City and his roughly .290 batting average is deceiving when you consider the fact that every hit he's had has been a single. He's a non-factor. Look for a low-scoring game between the Twins & White Sox. I'm playing the Under on Wednesday.

DAVID CHAN

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros

Care to win a bar bet? OK, ask someone to name the team that has the third-best record in baseball since July 27.

Hint: It's not the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 4-10 in their last 14 games.

Have a Heineken if you named the Houston Astros. Only the Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies have been hotter than the Astros during the past 7 1/2 weeks. Houston has been particularly hot at Minute Maid Park, winning 18 of their last 24 home contests.

J.A. Happ is one big reason for this success. He's 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in six starts at Minute Maid Park this year. He draws David Bush, who is 3-5 with a 4.64 ERA on the road. Hunter Pence and Chris Johnson are a combined 17-for-35 career-wise against Bush.

The Brewers are playing the string out, not nearly energized like the Astros are. Milwaukee is dragging having dropped seven of its last eight road matchups.

Happ has a good short history versus the Brewers going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two career starts. The Astros have won six straight home games versus the Brewers.

Considering how well Houston and Happ have been going and how bad Milwaukee has been on the road, the price is more than fair. If the Astros weren't so under the radar, the price would be much higher.

That's fine, though, if the marketplace doesn't want to recognize the Astros. I'll be happy to ride them in games and prices like this.

Jim Feist

Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Oakland Athletics

The Royals are 2-4 in the last 6 starts made by Bruce Checn. Chen struck out four and walked one while holding the White Sox to one run on four hits over seven innings on Friday night. It was one of Chen's better starts of the year, but he's been preying on weaker teams of late with his last four wins coming against the Indians (twice), Mariners and Orioles. Oakland goes with Trevor Cahill (16-6), with a 2.61 ERA and he's 3-0 against the weak Royals. Play the Oakland A's.

EZWINNERS

Houston Astros -150

The Astros starting pitcher J.A. Happ has looked like an ace of the staff since coming over in the Roy Oswalt trade from Philadelphia. Happ has only given up more than three runs once in his nine starts with Houston and has been dominate at times. Happ has already shutdown the Brewers once this season as he didn't allow an earned run and only two hits in six inning of work and I expect another strong outing from him in this game. The Astros should not have to provide Happ with too much run support, but they should be able to do so against the Brewers starting pitcher Dave Bush. Bush has not had any success against the Astros this season as he is 0-2 against Houston in four starts this season with an ERA of 4.09. Bush is not a strikeout pitcher with overpowering stuff and will give the Astros plenty of chances to put the ball in play. Not many of Bush's wins come away from Milwaukee as the Brewers are only 18-38 in Bush's last fifty six road starts and I don't expect that to change in this game. The Astros continue to play excellent baseball and I look for them to pick up another win here. Play on Houston.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +1.5 -135

The Cubs are playing some of their best baseball of the year, winning 13 of their last 20 and 8 of their last 12. Meanwhile, the Cards are slumping beyond what they could have ever imagined in the stretch run, dropping 20 of their last 29. In addition, Chicago has had great success against its biggest division rival, having won 4 straight in the series and 7 of 11 on the season. Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano has returned to form. He's won his last 4 starts while not allowing more than 2 runs or 5 hits in those outings. Plus, Big Z has always thrown well against St. Louis. In fact, the Cubs are 16-5 in his last 21 starts vs. the Cardinals, including 6-0 in his last 6 road starts vs. the Red Birds. We also can't overlook the fact that Chicago is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings when Zambrano faces Carpenter. It appears Carpenter is running out of gas. The Cards have lost 3 of his last 4 starts, and he was shelled for 6 and 8 runs in two of those defeats. Take the Cubs on the run line.

James Patrick Sports

A's vs. Royals

Oakland’s kiddie corps brought back memories of the Hudson-Mulder-Zito days. Starter Trevor Cahill is one of our favorites of this batch. The bullpen was the best in the American League with a 3.54 ERA as Andrew Bailey made a strong first impression as the closer. Cahill has won (26) of his past (35) starts. The A's postseason plans still are pending and they have hung around in the West Division race somehow. Oakland's Green & Gold has won at a (12-5) rate against right handed starters and we get a great price, with a hot arm on our side, and that puts us on the Athletics in the series opener as the Big Man's selection in Wednesday Major League action.

Info Plays

3* on Boston Red Sox -159

Reasons the Red Sox win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 52-11 ML System hitting 82.5% gaining +38.5 units. This system is 10-2 this season. Bet the Red Sox on the road.