Doug Upstone
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies had one of their patented hot streaks going recently; unfortunately they picked a bad time to lose steam. With a chance to climb all over first place San Diego, the Rockies have unraveled like three dollar thru the washer and dryer in losing the first two games of the series and trail the Padres by four in the NL West and Atlanta by three in the loss column in the wild card chase.
There failures in the series haven’t been for lack of offense as Colorado has lost 6-4 and 7-6, maintaining their hot-hitting that has led to 10-2 record. In the series finale, the Rocks hand the horsehide to Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.10 ERA) whose won his last three decisions and lowered his ERA significantly. The Colorado left-hander will face the Pads Clayton Richard, who despite have 1.83 ERA in last three outings, has lost twice and San Diego has come up winless in his trio of starts.
For Wednesday, look to play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three outings. Talk about a scalding out of the microwave system, this MLB situation is 69-18 since 2006 and off the hook 13-0 THIS YEAR.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Roy Halladay is finally pitching in games that matter late in the season, and he's loving every minute of it. Look for another big performance from the Doc tonight as he faces the same team he threw a perfect game against earlier this season. Halladay is 18-10 with a 2.44 ERA this season, and he's looking to become the first Phillies pitcher to win 19 games in a season since Cy Young winner John Denny went 19-6 way back in 1983. Halladay has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 6 career starts vs. Florida, so I like his chances.
The Phillies are red hot right now, overtaking the Braves for first place in the NL East. Philly is 37-15 in their last 52 games overall, and they've won 7 of their last 8 recently. In 8 road meetings at Florida in 2010, the Phillies own a superb 7-1 record against the Marlins. Philly is 22-4 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Better yet, they are 11-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning mark. Halladay shuts 'em down while the the Philly hitters produce enough runs off of Jorge Sosa and company to win by 2 runs or more. Take the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tigers/Rangers UNDER 9.5
All the numbers strongly support the Under tonight. In fact, Detroit is 10-1 UNDER in road games when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing a total of 6.7 runs scored in this spot. In addition, Texas is 19-5 UNDER after scoring 8 runs or more this season, and we are only seeing 7.5 runs scored on average in this spot. I'll get behind the Under tonight.
Frank Jordan
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Diego Padres
Clayton Richard has pitched 5 times this season against Colorado with moderate success as he is 1-1 with a 4.40 era. Richard is a 12 game winner this season and 6-2 on the road. Colorado has 7-4 Jorge De La Rosa going who has a 3.63 era against San Diego resulting in a 2-0 record in three starts. Look for a nice afternoon relight of a ball game as San Diego wins again over Colorado putting them further behind in the NL West. Play San Diego
Hollywood Sports
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Chicago sends out Gavin Floyd with his 10-12 record along with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Floyd is a better proposition at home in Comiskey where he sports a 3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .261 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.19 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .279 opponent's batting average on the road this season. The White Sox have also won twelve of their last seventeen home games against teams with a winning record with Floyd on the mound. Floyd faces off against Brian Duensing who is 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season. The White Sox have won six straight games against good starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Duensing began the year as a long reliever in the Twins' bullpen before taking over in the rotation. But Minnesota has lost four straight road games against teams with a winning record with Duensing on the hill. Look for Floyd to outduel the converted reliever in this spot. Take the White Sox while listing both pitchers.
Larry Ness
GAME: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Think a manager can't make a difference? The Orioles were 32-73 (.305) when Buck Showalter took over on August 3. The SAME team which played .305 baseball for just over 100 games (under two managers), is now 25-15 (.625) over its last 40 games. The Orioles can complete a sweep of the Jays on Wednesday night and will face Kyle Drabek, in his major league debut. The name sounds familiar because he's the son of Doug Drabek, who won the Cy Young award for the Pirates in 1990 and won 155 games in a 13-year career. Kyle Drabek was one of three players acquired from Philadelphia in the December trade that sent Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Drabek is considered to be among the top prospects in the minors, going 14-9 with a 2.98 ERA in 27 starts in Double-A, even throwing a no-hitter on July 4th, no less. Drabek will face Baltimore's Brad Bergesen, who is 0-2 (team is 0-3) with a 9.77 ERA vs Toronto in 2010. However, Bergesen is one of many players who have found a new lease on the season under Showalter. He's made seven starts since Buck assumed the reigns in Baltimore, going 3-0 (team was 5-0) in his first five (2.72) but 0-1 (team is 0-2) in his last two. However, his ERA was even lower in those last two outings, at 2.31. I'll stick with the Orioles.
Teddy Covers
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Chicago Cubs
The St Louis Cardinals have completely fallen apart over the course of the last month. On August 14th, the Cardinals were tied with Cincinnati for the NL Central lead, sitting at 65-50, 15 games over .500. Since that time, the Cards have gone 9-19, dropping seven games behind the Reds in the division. They’ve played .333 baseball at Busch Stadium during that span, and they’ve dropped four straight against the arch-rival Cubs.
Chris Carpenter has been a legitimate Cy Young contender again this season, but, like his team, Carpenter has been slumping of late. He’s given up 19 runs in his last four starts, and he’ll be facing a Cubs lineup that has seen him three times already this season; hitting .293 against him as a team this year. The bullpen behind him has been spotty at best of late, and the Cardinals biggest bat, Albert Pujols, is not likely to play this evening.
Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano has led the Cubs to a 16-5 record in his last 21 games against St Louis. Since returning to the rotation following his well publicized meltdown/demotion to the bullpen, Zambrano has been nothing short of outstanding: seven starts, eight earned runs allowed. The suddenly surging Cubs have won each of his last four starts, and they’re on an 8-3 run in their last eleven road tilts. The price is right to take another shot with Chicago here as the Cubs look for the series sweep. 2* Take Chicago.
Black Widow
1* on New York Yankees -105
The Yankees are showing solid value here Wednesday at nearly even money against Tampa Bay. New York has the better starter on the mound, and they do not want to relinquish the half-game AL East lead they earned after a thrilling 8-7 win over Tampa Bay last night. Phil Hughes is 16-7 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.267 WHIP this year. He is certainly better than James Shields, who have been a big disappointment for a second straight season. Shields is 13-12 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.406 WHIP this season, 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA in his last 3 starts, and 3-7 with a 4.95 ERA in 13 career starts against the Yankees. The Rays are 1-5 in Shields' last 6 home starts vs. Yankees. Take New York on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -143
The Giants will be determined to get back in the win column tonight after losing to LA yesterday despite allowing only 1 hit. The Giants certainly have the right starter on the mound in Cain, as they are 7-0 in his last 7 starts when valued as a favorite. In addition, the Dodgers have dropped each of Billingsley's last 5 road starts. The Giants are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a defeat, and I'll take them in this bounce back spot tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.06 over BALTIMORE
One of our favorite angles in baseball is backing a team with a promising September call-up making his first start and that’s precisely the case with Kyle Drabek. Drabek is expected to make three starts to end the season. He was acquired from the Phillies last December as part of the Roy Halladay deal. He's gotten better as the '10 season has progressed and he even threw a no-hitter this season. Drabek doesn't have a dominant strikeout rate, but he does a nice job of inducing weak contact. His 88-94 mph fastball that features late life and his plus curveball are both high-quality offerings that hitters don't hit hard. He's a fine athlete who repeats his delivery and has decent command despite his moderate walk rate. Drabek keeps the ball down and gets his fair share of groundballs. He underwent Tommy John surgery in '07, but he's been durable since. This year in the minors, Drabek allowed just 126 hits in 162 IP for a BAA of .215 and an ERA of 2.94. He has great potential and the Jays should be a little extra juiced here in support of Drabek, knowing he could be a key piece to the puzzle next season. Brad Bergeson has had a terrible year any way you look at it: 6.37 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 6 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). He’s also allowed 22 jacks in 147 frames or 12% of his fly-balls allowed have left the yard. Perhaps that explains part of the reason why the Jays have crushed this stiff three times already this season. In fact, the Jays have gone deep on Bergeson five times in 15.2 innings and overall they’re hitting a whopping .386 off him. Bergeson has a 9.77 ERA in those three starts vs the Jays after allowing 27 hits and 17 earned runs in those 15.2 IP. The Jays taking back a tag here is true value. Wrong side favored. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY –1.02 over NY Yankees
James Shields' ERA is very likely to improve before the season's end, as his xERA is considerably lower than his actual ERA. The elite skills here have been undermined by an inflated hit rate and elevated hr/9. His unappealing surface ERA makes him an undervalued pitcher but his xERA of 3.85 confirms that Shields has been pitching as good as he’s ever pitched. He’s struck out 168 batters in 180 IP and has walked just 43. That pinpoint control is about as sweet as it gets and it’s not unusual to see Shields whiff eight or more in a start. He faced the Yanks back on Aug 1 and didn’t allow a run in seven full while striking out 11. Phil Hughes was skipped in the Yanks rotation last week because they want to keep his innings down. Translation: the man is tired. After a strong first half (3.58 ERA), Hughes has struggled in the second half, with a 5.21 ERA and a 4.88 xERA. His BPV is down from 88 to 47. After throwing only 105 innings last season, Hughes is already up to 155 IP this year. He's now at the 50 IP increase warning flag, which is a good measure for burnout symptoms and he'll add more innings through the rest of September and the post-season. The total here is posted at 9, indicating the books expect at least one of these pitchers to have a very good start and we doubt highly they expect it’ll come from Hughes. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rays are 24-8 over its last 32 home games while the Yanks have been average on the road all season long. Play: Tampa Bay –1.04 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Chicago +1.79 over ST. LOUIS
Chris Carpenter has thrown 209 innings this season. With a long history of injuries you would think the Cardinals would shut him down for the year instead of taking the risk that nothing goes wrong. But Tony LaRussa doesn’t like to lose. He thinks he’s smarter than anyone else but he’s not. He doesn’t care about Carpenter or anyone else because he’s leaving and couldn’t give a rat’s ass what happens to Carpenter. With the season over and the Cards out of it, now would be a good time to shut Carpenter down. He was tagged for eight runs - six earned - and eight hits in five innings in Friday’s 8-6 loss in Atlanta. He’s had a few shaky starts recently and fatigue is definitely a factor. In addition, the Cards have mentally checked out for the season. They’ve lost 21 of 29 and they’ve lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 12-3. Carlos Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in seven starts since returning to the rotation after attending anger-management counseling, knocking nearly two runs off his ERA from 5.61. He’s posted a 0.95 ERA in winning his last four outings and now he’ll face a Cardinal team that would rather be anywhere else other than around a drunk (LaRussa) telling them what to do and a cheater (McGwire) telling them what they’re doing wrong at the plate. Incidentally, McGwire was a career .230-hitter before he started taking steroids. Anyway, regardless of the outcome here, we’re going with the best of it at this price against this disinterested host. Play: Chicago +1.79 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.10 over Arizona
Homer Bailey has posted five dominant performances in his six outings since returning to the rotation after being sidelined nearly three months with shoulder inflammation. He has a 31/7 K/BB in 37.1 IP since his return, including a nine-strikeout, zero-walk, seven-inning performance in his last start. He also has an xERA of 3.50 over that stretch and only two current D-Backs hitters (Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds) have faced Bailey in the past. Bailey has a great opportunity to dominate again. Joe Saunders is a bad pitcher that has very little chance of success at this park. He’s 0-3 on the road since his move to the NL with an ERA of 7.45. Saunders doesn’t strike out many, he’s always battling the strike zone and the Reds are 16-7 against southpaws at Great American. Overall, Saunders has allowed 96 hits in 75 road innings for a BAA of .320. Current Reds batters are hitting .326 off Saunders with Orlando Cabrera going 9-18 and Ramon Hernandez batting .412 (7-17). Cinci needs wins right now and they won’t come mush easier than this in terms of pitching matchups. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Sac Lawson
TOR (+102) vs BAL
Kyle Drabek.. Well, I've gotta be honest, I'm not THAT impressed with this youngster. He does have a solid mid-90's fastball, and a plus curveball. But that Fastball was pretty hittable in the minors, which means trouble at the big league level. Now, that being said, at this point in the season.. Drabek is on top of his game. A young pitcher, who has been around the big leagues his entire life (because of his father Doug), will have nerves of steal and really be able to throw hitters off balance simply because they don't have much to go off of. Obviously no one in the Baltimore lineup has seen Drabek, and his arm angle is a bit unique. In these spots, the advantage is to the pitcher for at least the first two at bats.
Bergeson on the other side has had a good run over the last month or so. My concern, however, is the last two starts which have been a bit of a regression. Toronto has murdered him all season long, and if he is regressing on top of it, that spells trouble.
Coming off of a huge offensive performance last night, I expect Baltimore to cool off abruptly against the young Drabek, and I expect Toronto to give Bergeson the same kinda fits they have all season. 1 unit on the Jays!
ANA (-120) vs CLE
Yes, Weaver has lost a hand full of games in a row. But he's pitched very well, and that's all you can ask for. Gomez has pitched quite well himself, but has also been the victim of poor run support. My key for this game is quite simple... Gomez has had about 10 days off. He was taxed like crazy in the minors this year, and the Indians simply have got to watch his pitch count. I don't like the idea of taking a guy out of his 5-day routine, I think that affects a guy in a negative way more often than not. And I also don't like the fact that Cleveland will probably only allow him to go 6 strong today.
Weaver has the ability to go 7-9 innings when he's on top of his game, and in my eyes, with how well both these pitchers are performing... It'll be the first team to go to their pen that gets the loss. With Gomez out of his routine and on a strict pitch count, I see that team being Cleveland. I'm on the Angels for 1 unit!