Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 18

Rocketman

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -125

The Chicago Cubs travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers on Wednesday night. Milwaukee won again last night over the Cubs and now lead this series two games to none heading to game three here on Wednesday evening. Milwaukee is 5-1 last 6 games overall. Cubs have now lost 4 in a row and 6 of their past 7 games overall. Cubs are scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a weak team batting average of only .200. Milwaukee has allowed only 3.7 runs per game their past seven games where they are allowing opponents a combined team batting average of only .210. Tyler Thornburg is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his 16 appearances this year. Thornburg is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his five starts this season. Milwaukee is 21-5 last 3 years at home vs the Cubs. Thornburg pitched six scoreless innings back on December 30th in a no decision where the Brewers got the win over the Cubs. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota Twins +122

The White Sox are a bad team, and nothing in this matchup indicates they have better odds to win this game. Over their past seven games Chicago has averaged 2.7 runs per game on a .249 batting average. With the team hitting so poorly it is going to be hard to score enough runs to cover what John Danks gives up in this game.

In his last three starts, Danks has a 9.42 ERA and a 0-3 record. Danks has struggled throughout his career against the Twins, posting a 6-10 record with a 5.18 ERA. Scott Diamond has been solid on the road for Minnesota this season. While his record is 3-3 (5-5 as a team) in his 10 road starts, he has a 4.53 ERA. Minnesota is 14-7 against AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs per game this season.

Justin Bay

Boston Red Sox -145

Wei-Yin Chen
- Season vs. BOS: 9.90 ERA, .333 OBA
- Away: 4.48 ERA, .274 OBA
- September: 5.51 ERA, .262 OBA
- Last Start: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, .269 OBA
- Post All Star: 4.95 ERA, .264 OBA
- Boston hitters vs. Chen in his career: .321 BA

Jake Peavy
- Home: 2.59 ERA, .206 OBA
- September: 5.25 ERA, .222 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, .190 OBA
- Post All Star: 3.76 ERA, .220 OBA
- Orioles hitters vs. Peavy in his career: .213 BA

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers -125

The Cubs are 18-37 in the last 55 meetings, including 6-20 in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee. The Cubs are 30-63 in their last 93 road games vs. a right-handed starter and face Milwaukee righty Tyler Thornburg (2-1, 2.18 ERA), who has a 2.50 ERA his last three starts. This Chicago offense is terrible, 24th in baseball in runs scored, 29th batting average, plus 29th in on base percentage. The Cubs are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is stumbling down the stretch and the Cubs are 20-41 in their last 61 vs. the National League Central.

Nick Parsons

St. Louis Cardinals -150

Wainwright is coming off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mariners on Friday, giving up one run off six scattered hits and two walks while striking out six over eight frames in his team's eventual 2-1 victory.

The big right-hander has now allowed one run combined over his last two trips to the mound spanning 15 innings.

Note that Wainwright has already enjoyed success vs. the Rockies this year, tossing a complete game shutout vs. them back on May 11th.

Also note that Wainwright is a smoking 9-3 with a 3.35 ERA away from friendly confines this year.

Tyler Chatwood (7-4, 2.30 ERA)

Chatwood is also coming off a no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks on Saturday, giving up two runs off seven hits with six walks and striking out just one over only 4 2/3's innings of work.

Chatwood's command has been "off" recently and he has now allowed three earned runs over his last eight innings pitched.

The Bottom Line

With the postseason in their sights, off a big win last night and with the superior starter on the bump, consider laying this mid-sized price on Wainwright and the streaking Cardinals.

Doug Upstone

Tampa Bay Rays -129

Tampa and Texas are tied coming into this one but Tampa will edge in front thanks to starter Chris Archer who is coming off a fantastic performance last time out. The rookie righty is nearly a run better in ERA at home and has shown that when he is on he can dominate a lineup. The Rangers haven't seen him this season making his stuff that much sharper and their own starter might be tiring having given up 6ER in his last two starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati Reds -149

The Reds hammered the Astros last night and may do it again tonight. The Reds fit a solid road warrior system that plays on certain road favorites that are off a road favored win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like the Astros that are off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs if the total was 8 or less. These road favorites have won 23 of 29 times since 2004. The Reds have won 12 of the last 17 here and have G. Reynolds making the start. Reynolds has been solid in his last 2 and went 8 strong innings in his last start on the road. B. Peacock makes the start for Houston and he has a elevated 6.84 home era and the Astros have dropped 4 of his 5 home starts. Houston is just 9-28 of late vs winning teams. Look for the Reds to take another tonight.

Bruce Marshall

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: San Diego Padres

How strange would it be for this wonderful season in Pittsburgh to be sidetracked by the Padres, of all teams? It might be time to start believing just that, however, as San Diego is halfway to what would be a crushing 4-game sweep at PNC Park that the Bucs could hardly use as they try to win the NL Central. But San Diego has now won 18 of its last 21 and 30 of 40 all-time at PNC after Eric Stults followed Andrew Cashner's 1-hitter on Monday with another solid effort in Tuesday's 5-2 win. Granted, Wednesday Padre starter Tyson Ross has not been especially effective lately, but expect him to bear down after getting KO'd in the first innings of his last start on Friday vs. the Phils. And besides, the Pittsburgh bats have been silent in this series, and the Pads have won 10 of 14. Bucs starter Charlie Morton has a 10.80 ERA in his last two starts, though much of that damage came from a shortened outing in St. Louis on Sept. 8. Still, this price play on San Diego looks too good to avoid.

Steve Janus

Kansas City Royals -103

This is a must win game for the Royals, as they can't afford another loss to the Indians or at all to have any hopes of making the playoffs. While I don't like there chances of playing in the postseason, I expect them to lay everything on the line and get a victory tonight.

One of the key advantages that I believe the Royals have tonight is that the Indians bullpen had to pitch 4 and 1/3 innings last night after Corey Kluber got knocked out early. Cleveland will be starting Danny Salazar, who has been brilliant in his eight starts. However, Salazar is on a pitch count of 85 and because he likes to strike people he's made into the 5th inning just twice. I look for Royals starter Bruce Chen to keep Kansas City in it early and the bats to come alive late to secure the win. Chen hasn't allowed an earned run in 12 and 1/3 innings of work against the Indians this season.

Bryan Leonard

Cubs / Brewers Over 7.5

Two pitchers that are definitely due for regression meet on Wednesday when Chris Rusin and the Cubs take on Tyler Thornburg and the Brewers. Rusin has a 2.85 ERA but a 4.27 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP. Even uglier, Rusin sports a 4.73 SIERA. Rusin has a K/BB ratio of 1.52, which is well below average. His .270 BABIP is very misleading and his 82.2% strand rate is simply not sustainable from a guy that has questionable control and very few swings and misses. The Brewers had nine baserunners in 3.2 innings off of Rusin in his last start against them, but Rusin and the bullpen managed to get lucky enough to hold the Brewers to two runs. Rusin has regression on the horizon and the Brewers and a hitter-friendly ballpark look like the right spot.

Tyler Thornburg is a mystery. After posting an ERA north of 6.00 nearly all season long in Triple-A, he has come up to the Majors and posted a 2.18 ERA. Thornburg has a 22/13 K/BB ratio over five starts, but has somehow managed to only give up seven runs. As a flyball pitcher at Miller Park, Thornburg is playing with fire. In eight appearances at home, Thornburg has posted a 4.09 ERA, compared to an 0.85 ERA on the road.

This is a game where bettors are just looking at the traditional metrics and assuming that the game will go under. It creates additional value for us that the total actually dropped to 7.5 at some books. If regression hits the way it should for both of these guys, this game should comfortably go over the total, and we're confident that it will go the way we expect it to.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WASHINGTON +102 over AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What didn’t seem possible at the beginning of September is becoming more of a reality as each September morning passes. After sweeping the Braves in yesterday’s day/night double-header, the Nationals are now just 4½ games back of a Wild Card birth and they have four games against the Marlins on deck. The two teams that the Nationals are chasing, the Reds and Pirates play each other six more times, which makes Washington’s chances of catching one of them even greater. The Nationals have now won 10 of their past 11 and 21 of their past 27 games while the Braves have dropped nine of their past 13. The Braves have also been shutout in two of their past three games and now they’re favored on the road against the hottest team in baseball that has more momentum than anyone also? C’mon Man!!
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The Braves are favored here because Alex Wood is widely regarded to be much better than Russ Ohlendorf. That might be true but if the better pitcher won every time out, we’d all be rich. Besides, Wood is showing some signs of trouble. When Wood was first inserted into the Braves rotation he showed all the signs of a polished high draft pick with significant college experience. He struck out a batter per inning over his short minor league career and is besting that rate in the majors. Wood has been able to continue to throw strikes and his command at the majors has been better than the minors. However, it’s over 70 career major-league innings. The film is out on him and hitter’s study it. Wood’s scouting report still says he’s more of a mid-rotation starter than an ace and we’re seeing signs of that too. Over his last two starts against the Phillies and Marlins, not exactly the cream of the crop, Wood was tagged for 17 hits and 11 runs in seven innings combined. He failed to make it out of the fifth inning in both of those two starts and walked five batters while striking out just six. Over his last 19 innings, Wood has walked 11 batters while posting a 2.09 WHIP. Wood’s current form and lack of experience confirms that he does not warrant being the road favorite here.
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On July 26th, Russ Ohlendorf threw a gem against the Mets, throwing 115 pitches and hitting 95 on the radar gun. In his next appearance, however, he couldn't top 85, was hit hard, and then placed on the disabled list. Fast forward to August 21 in which Ohlendorf returns against the Cubbies and doesn’t make it out of the fifth inning. However, since then, Ohlendorf has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his next four starts. At home, he’s 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA and he’s looking better with each passing start. The Nationals have confidence in his ability and health otherwise he would not be making this start. Ohlendorf has outstanding control, a groundball bias profile and is wrongly being billed as the pup in this game. Hot versus cold gets the call.
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N.Y. Yankees +104 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yanks have dropped four in a row and are now 3½ games back in the Wild Card race. However, a close looks reveals that New York has faced John Lackey, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and R.A. Dickey in those four losses and after facing that quartet, facing J.A. Happ should appear in slow motion for these New York hitters. Happ's 5.15 ERA this year has been supported by a lackluster skill set all year long. Happ walks too many batters, he comes in with a concerning 1.53 WHIP and he also has a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three starts against the Pinstripes this year. Over his last five starts, Happ’s WHIP is even higher at 1.67 and over that span, he’s 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA.
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Joe Girardi is a smart manager. With Phil Hughes struggling miserably, Girardi sends out Hughes to face the Orioles in his last start. After three innings and allowing one run with just 50 pitches thrown, Girardi gives Hughes the hook and the Yanks go on to win the game. It was a premeditated move by Girardi to allow Hughes to exit a game with confidence and it just might work. It’s also possible that Giradi’s plan is to use him for three innings again because Hughes has been outstanding the first time through lineups. Besides, Hughes has a respectable 3.80 ERA on the road where he has allowed just six bombs in 64 innings pitched. Whatever the case may be, Joe Girardi has a plan and he will not allow Hughes to go deep if trouble is brewing. And it’s not like the Blue Jays are seeing beach balls these days either. Toronto has scored just 17 runs over its last six games and three runs over its past two games. Edwin Encarnacion joins Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera on the DL and the Jays best reliever, Brett Cecil is also out. Taking back a tag against J.A. Happ has nothing but profit potential.
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Los Angeles +108 over ARIZONAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After snapping a four-game losing streak with a 9-3 win last night, the Dodgers are now in a position to clinch the NL West with a win tonight. Amazing what getting a couple of big bats back in the lineup can do for a team. Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez returned to the Dodgers lineup and were instantly productive, as the Dodgers scored four times in the first and lead 8-0 after 3½ innings. L.A. takes that momentum into tonight’s game and they hand the ball over to Stephen Fife in favor of Clayton Kershaw, who gets a little extra rest. What a great opportunity for Fife to get the ball for the clinching game and we fully expect him to respond. Fife is a big and durable starter with loose arm action and some projection left. With a heavy 88-93 mph sinker, he lives in the lower half of the strike zone and relies on pitching to contact, especially groundballs. Fife has excellent control of his fastball and consistently works ahead in the count. He’s been the victim of injuries and the numbers game his entire career but there is no denying his talent. In his nine starts to date this season, Fife has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of them and comes in with a s 2.47/3.45 ERA/xERA split as a starter.
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Brandon McCarthy returned from a long stint on the DL on August 4 after shoulder issues put him there in late May. He’s made eight starts since returning and the Diamondbacks have dropped six of them. McCarthy has spent 140 days on the DL over the past three seasons. He has outstanding control but he doesn’t miss bats, suggesting he’s very prone to being hit hard. The impact of three DL stints in two years for the same shoulder may afford McCarthy less margin for error than ever and he’ll need to maintain his excellent command to compensate for his low strikeout rate. McCarthy has allowed 138 hits in 116 frames this season for a BAA of .296. He has four wins in 19 starts, which highlights his risk even more. McCarthy may offer up some value as a pooch in certain situations but as the chalk against these determined Dodgers, he offers up none.

Wunderdog

San Francisco at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets +135

The San Francisco Giants were World Series Champions a year ago, and they are within 1.5 games of going from first to worst in their division. They are 1.5 games better than Colorado right now, and if they finish last they will become just the second team in history to have done so. Matt Cain has been a disappointment this season with an ERA of 4.24, and has won just twice in his last eight starts. The Mets knocked Cain out in the first inning in his last start against them. Aaron Harang had a sparkling Mets' debut, and has had a long history of taming the Giants' lineup, where he owns a career 3.13 ERA against them. The Giants are just 1-5 in Cain's last six starts as a favorite, while the Mets are 9-4 in their last 13 at home vs. a losing team. Play this one on the Mets.

Big Kat Sports

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Take: Boston Red Sox -145

The Boston Red Sox will look to clinch a playoff berth tonight when they take on the Baltimore Orioles at FenwayPark. After losing to Baltimore last night, which was just their 5th loss in their last 22 games, the Sox still have a 9 game lead over the Rays and it’s just a matter of time before they clinch the American League East. Their magic number for a playoff spot is just 2 and win tonight coupled with an Indians loss will send Boston to the playoffs. Here are a few trends that have us on the home team tonight in Boston:

Red Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Orioles are 4-9 in their last 13 games as an underdog.
Orioles are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Orioles are 2-5 in Chen’s last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

Pair those numbers with the fact that Red Sox are 23-9 in their last 32 home games vs. a right-handed starter and we’ll lay the price with them at Fenway tonight to inch closer to an AL East Division crown and a spot in the playoffs.

Will Rogers

Cincinnati vs. Houston
Pick: Cincinnati

After using them as my free play yesterday (and winning!), I might as well come back with the Reds again today. The Astros aren't getting better any time soon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. 100 and Counting - Yesterday marked Houston's 100th loss of the season (third straight year with 100+ losses). By any measurement, they are clearly the worst team in baseball, which again, was expecting coming into the year after a major slash in payroll. The Astros have lost their last four games by a combined score of 24-4. That includes a 10-0 loss yesterday to the Reds. No team has given up more runs this season than Houston (793) and as a result they have a run differential of -202, which is 69 runs worse than any other team.

2. No Homefield Advantage - Houston is just 6-25 this season when seeking revenge for two straight home losses. In other words, look for the Reds to complete the sweep. The Astros are just 15-43 as a home dog of +125 or higher on the money line. Dating back to their time in the National League, they are also just 5-12 their last 17 home games against Cincinnati.

3. X-Factor - Overall, the Reds are 40-17 vs. Houston since '09!